Submitted by Lucienne Costa (lucienneferreira@ufcg.edu.br) on 2018-09-11T19:57:24Z No. of bitstreams: 1 TAFNES DA SILVA ANDRADE – TESE (PPGRN) 2017.pdf: 12846482 bytes, checksum: c67b2441de336d9fe46d15963d7dfc5f (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-09-11T19:57:24Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 TAFNES DA SILVA ANDRADE – TESE (PPGRN) 2017.pdf: 12846482 bytes, checksum: c67b2441de336d9fe46d15963d7dfc5f (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-08-11 / A seca liga os fenômenos meteorológicos e a sociedade de tal forma que sua ocorrência, quase sempre, implica em consequências sociais e econômicas negativas. É um fenômeno natural cíclico comum no Semiárido nordestino do Brasil. Sua gestão deve priorizar medidas proativas tomadas antes e durante a ocorrência das secas. Obras de infraestrutura hídrica podem auxiliar nessa gestão pois contribuem para diminuição da vulnerabilidade e consequente diminuição dos impactos da seca na região. O monitoramento é outra ferramenta fundamental nesse processo pois pode integrar sistemas de alerta e orientar o momento correto para executar ações de preparação e mitigação. Diferentes índices de seca são usados no monitoramento, e deveriam considerar não apenas os fenômenos meteorológicos, mas também as atividades econômicas significativas para a região. Tomando por base o conceito de gestão do risco, este trabalho buscou identificar as relações entre a gestão do risco e a diminuição da vulnerabilidade à seca, considerando que as obras de infraestrutura e índices de secas relacionados com as atividades econômicas regionais são chaves importantes desse processo. Como resultados podemos citar que as ações de infraestrutura hídrica contribuíram para o aumento da oferta hídrica na região, que se refletiu nas baixas vulnerabilidades a seca dos municípios mais atendidos pelo programa. E que os índices de seca VCI, VHI e SPEI, possuem potencial de uso como ferramenta para aplicação de medidas de monitoramento e gestão da seca na região em regiões semiáridas, que tem na pecuária sua principal atividade econômica. / Drought connects meteorological phenomena and society in such a way that their occurrence, almost always, implies negative social and economic consequences. It is a natural phenomenon common in the Brazilian northeastern Semiarid. Its management should focus on proactive measures taken before and during the occurrence of droughts. Water infrastructure constructions may help in this management as they contribute to decrease vulnerability and consequently reduce drought impacts. Monitoring is another fundamental tool in this process because it can integrate warning systems and guide the right time to perform preparedness and mitigation actions. Different drought index are used in monitoring, and should look not only the meteorological phenomena, but also the significant economic activities for the region. Based on the concept of risk management, this work sought to identify the relationships between risk management and the reduction of vulnerabilities to drought, considering that infrastructure works and drought indexes related to regional economic activities are important keys to this process. As a result, we can mention that water infrastructure constructions contributed to the increase in the water supply in the region, which was reflected in the low vulnerability to drought in the municipalities most served by the program. And that the drought index VCI, VHI and SPEI have potential for monitoring and management drought in the semiarid region, which has livestock as its main economic activity.

VIEIRA, Maria de Lourdes Gomes Meira. Análise das políticas compensatórias e das estratégias de sobrevivência do homem do campo, principalmente no período de seca: um estudo do caso. 2004. 96 f. : Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Federal do Ceará, Programa Regional de Pós-Graduação em Desenvolvimento e Meio Ambiente - PRODEMA, Fortaleza-CE, 2004. / Submitted by guaracy araujo (guaraa3355@gmail.com) on 2016-05-17T17:44:44Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2004_dis_mlgmvieira.pdf: 502001 bytes, checksum: 0704075912fca5d79dcb68b7b2a4f6fd (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by guaracy araujo (guaraa3355@gmail.com) on 2016-05-17T17:45:45Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 2004_dis_mlgmvieira.pdf: 502001 bytes, checksum: 0704075912fca5d79dcb68b7b2a4f6fd (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-05-17T17:45:45Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2004_dis_mlgmvieira.pdf: 502001 bytes, checksum: 0704075912fca5d79dcb68b7b2a4f6fd (MD5) Previous issue date: 2004 / The Brazilian Northeastern region has been affected, over the centuries, by a phenomenon know as “droughts”, which assumes a great relevance from the geoclimatic, meteorological, economic, social, cultural and environmental viewpoints. Their impact are largely acknowledged as production failure, unemployment, migration, death, disease outbreaks (often more deadly than hunger itself), family disruption, buildup of city slums, water scarcity, hunger, riots, plagues and a host of wrongdoings. The overall situation is apt to bring about instances of despair, resilience and solidarity. There has been no want of measures to solve those problems (which range from the importation of camels to the construction of huge reservoirs such as the Castanhão Dam), specially since the “Great 1877-1978 Droughts”, the most severe of the 19th century, when about 5% of the Brazilian population perished. Thenceforth, the droughts turned into a problem of governmental politics that made the Northeastern region to a case of major concern, so that given the regular occurrence of that phenomenon countrymen carry on being highly vulnerable to low-pluviosity periods. Within this social context lies the Limoeiro do Norte county, enclosed in the Vale do Jaguaribe micro-region. The main objective of this work was to analyze the compensatory policies and survival strategies of countrymen during “droughts” periods. The basic material consists of a literature survey and a secondary database derived from the Arizona Project. As to the compensatory policies, the results obtained so far show there to occur a temporary relief of the starvation state of most families but without accounting for major structural changes. It was also noticeable that despite the several restrictions to prevent a countryman to be productive (lack of farmland, water and basic input economic resources), agriculture is still the main activity and source of his survival by resorting to a number of strategies through the combination of various income sources, yet the great majority still suffers from a lack of economic means for a decent living. The main outcome of this study has been the acceptance of the basic hypothesis, namely that the execution of public policies for tackling the droughts problem has failed to turn the Northeast countryside a more livable environment. The main evidence of that failure lies in the fact that the rural population continues to be historically vulnerable to the same scarcity of survival means, yet the countryman seems to be endowed with a very strong sense of adaptation that somehow enables him to endure a host of difficulties and to make the best of what is available for his welfare, specially during periods of severe droughts. / O Nordeste Brasileiro é secularmente acometido por “secas”1, fenômeno de grande importância sob os aspectos geo-climáticos, meteorológicos, econômicos, políticos, sociais, culturais e ambientais. Seus impactos são amplamente conhecidos: quebra da produção, desemprego, migração, morte, pestes epidêmicas (muitas vezes matando mais do que a própria fome), desagregação de famílias e aglomerados humanos, falta d’ água, fome, saques, flagelo e tantos outros males. São momentos de desespero, de resistência e de solidariedade. Medidas para solucionar o problema nunca faltaram (que vão desde a importação de dromedários para a região até a construção de grandes barragens como o açude Castanhão), principalmente, a partir da grande “seca” de 1877-1879, a maior do século XIX – a partir de então, a “seca” tornou-se um problema de política governamental - na qual morreram aproximadamente 5% da população brasileira, e que acabou transformando o Nordeste – até então chamado de Norte – em uma regiãoproblema. No entanto, “seca” após “seca”, o homem do campo continua sendo altamente vulnerável às estiagens. E, dentro dessa realidade, encontra-se o Município de Limoeiro do Norte, área geográfica de estudo, localizado no Estado do Ceará, na Microrregião Vale do Jaguaribe. Buscou-se, então, analisar as políticas compensatórias e as estratégias de sobrevivência do homem do campo, principalmente no período de “seca”. Foram utilizados a pesquisa bibliográfica e documental e dados de natureza secundária oriundos do Projeto Arizona. Quanto às políticas compensatórias, os resultados encontrados dão conta de que os seus impactos aliviam, temporariamente, o estado de penúria em que vivem as famílias, sem contudo, proporcionar mudanças estruturais significativas. Observou-se, que apesar de inúmeras restrições que impedem o homem de produzir (falta de terra, de água e de recursos para explorar a terra), a agricultura continua sendo a principal atividade e fonte de sobrevivência. Constatou-se, que para sobreviver o homem do campo busca várias estratégias, inclusive a combinação de diversas fontes de renda, entretanto, a grande maioria encontra-se com rendas e terras insuficientes para sua manutenção adequada. Concluído o estudo, considerou como verdadeiras as hipóteses, ou seja, a implementação de políticas públicas de “combate” aos efeitos da seca não proporcionou ao homem do campo o seu convívio digno no semi-árido, pois sempre quando ela ocorre a população passa pelas mesmas vulnerabilidades e, que, apesar destas políticas não terem minimizado o sofrimento do homem do campo, o mesmo tem seus mecanismos de defesa, embora limitados, como as estratégias de sobrevivência, principalmente no período de “seca”.

Africa is uniquely vulnerable to the occurrence of drought. A rise in temperatures over Southern Africa occurs at almost twice that of the global rate. South Africa has begun to experience an increase in the frequency of drought, particularly in the Western and Eastern Cape. Droughts are associated with several health effects. The direct and indirect risks of climate change to human health have become a global concern. The most recent systematic review available on the adverse health effects associated with drought was published in 2013, and as such, an up-to-date review focusing on Africa is needed to inform a Cape Town specific health vulnerability index. This study aims to provide a review of available research exploring the association between drought and adverse health effects in Africa. The rationale for this study is to provide a solid research foundation from which a drought-specific health vulnerability index for Cape Town can be developed. A narrative review of original studies and published reviews was conducted. An extensive electronic literature search was performed using a combination of keywords, Medical Subject Heading (MeSH) terms and free text words. The Critical Appraisal Toolkit (CAT) was used to assess the quality of included studies. A total of 1922 publications were identified, of which twenty-four articles were included in this review. The main drought-related health effects that emerged were divided into 4 main categories: (1) drought and nutritional health including malnutrition, poor childhood health outcomes (wasting, stunting and underweight), mortality, anaemia, and nutritionrelated disability; (2) drought and food consumption including micronutrient deficiencies and motor neuron diseases; (3) drought and water-borne, water-washed and water- related diseases including cholera outbreaks, diarrhoeal diseases, protozoa parasite transmission, scabies outbreaks, trachoma, vector-borne disease outbreaks and malaria-related mortality; and (4) drought and health behaviours including health perceptions and health-seeking behaviours, HIV prevention and care behaviours and family planning practices. There was generally limited evidence in all health categories with several limitations. These limitations include studies with methodological weaknesses (e.g. a lack of comparison to a non-drought period), the singularity of published studies on health effects associated with drought and studies which did not account for potential confounders. While the evidence from the included studies is limited, this study highlights gaps in literature to encourage further research into understanding the direct and indirect impacts of drought on health, particularly in vulnerable groups. Furthermore, the results of this study emphasized the contextual factors which lower an individual's adaptive capacity and identified key indicators that can be used to begin to develop a broad framework for a vulnerability index

Hydroclimate in the United States (US) is climatologically divided by the 100th meridian. The semi-arid western US has experienced high-amplitude multidecadal swings in drought and soil moisture variability over the last millennium, culminating in anthropogenic warming-driven drying into the early part of the 21st century. In sharp contrast, the climatologically humid eastern US has experienced century-long increases in precipitation and soil moisture, and generally less warming than in the west, creating a fascinating wetting east – drying west contrast over North America. In eastern North America, a large proportion of the annual precipitation trend was driven by fall-season increases in the southeastern US (SE-US). A rigorous examination of this region would lead to greater insight into the broader causes of hydroclimatic change across North America. The objectives of this dissertation are to (1) identify the large-scale drivers of increased fall precipitation in the SE-US and (2) contextualize and evaluate the causes of regional-to-continental scale changes in soil moisture availability across North America.The first three research chapters of my dissertation focus on my first objective to address the causes of the 20th-century fall precipitation trend. In my first research chapter, I identify and describe fall-season precipitation increases in the SE-US. I show that fall precipitation in the SE-US has increased by nearly 40% during 1895-2016 due to increased circulation-driven moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico into the SE-US, likely associated with a strengthening or relocation of the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH). The NASH is a semipermanent high pressure system located over the North Atlantic that directs moisture transport into the SE-US. Using atmospheric general circulation models forced by sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and anthropogenic emissions, I demonstrate that models have the capability to simulate a precipitation response to the NASH, but the observed precipitation trend was extremely unlikely in both forced and unforced scenarios. This indicates that the fall precipitation trend was likely caused by processes not well represented in these models, suggesting more work is needed to address why models are unable to simulate observed circulation and SE-US precipitation trends. SST-forced simulations do simulate an enhanced, although displaced to the northwest, NASH and greenhouse gases appear to weakly increase the likelihood of fall wetting. In the first research chapter, I evaluated the proximate drivers of the SE-US fall precipitation variability and trends, working towards the goal of identifying the ultimate driver of observed NASH intensification and SE-US wetting. As a next step, it is important to understand how the increases in precipitation have been delivered, particularly given that fall overlaps with the peak of Atlantic hurricane season. In the second research chapter, I complete a daily-scale decomposition of storm types and precipitation intensity in the SE-US to understand how different precipitation events influenced the fall precipitation increase. I show that increases in SE-US fall precipitation occurred largely as a result of highest-intensity non-tropical (mostly frontal) precipitation days (72% contribution to the fall precipitation trend). In contrast, precipitation from tropical cyclones, a major contributor to extreme fall precipitation, demonstrated a nominal but positive contribution to the trend (13%). Nearly all of the precipitation was delivered on the most extreme (top 5%) intensity precipitation days. These results suggest the observed increase in SE-US fall precipitation has critical implications for flash flood risk from high-intensity rainfall events should the trend continue through the 21st century. Once I identified the types and intensity of storms that influence the fall precipitation trend, I sought to diagnose the physical causes of increased circulation into the SE-US and resultant increases in fall precipitation in the third research chapter. I find that fall precipitation was facilitated by an increase in zonal sea-level pressure (SLP) gradient over the Gulf of Mexico, almost entirely driven by increased SLP along the western edge of the NASH. The zonal SLP gradient was linked to an upper-tropospheric wave train over the North Pacific and North America, leading to increased circulation into the SE-US from the Gulf of Mexico. SST-forced simulations are capable of simulating the spatial features of the NASH and wave train but lack the circulation trends that lead to increased zonal SLP gradient and fall precipitation. The models simulated an enhanced tropical-to-subtropical wave train which increased subsidence and SLP over the subtropical Atlantic Ocean and North America and led to a stronger, more expansive modeled NASH intensification relative to reanalyses, suggesting there exists a stronger atmospheric response to tropical SSTs in models. Due to these discrepancies between models and reanalyses, we can anticipate limitations when using atmospheric models forced by observed SSTs to assess regional climate change in the North Atlantic basin. More research will be needed to understand the physical processes that influence this divergence. The ultimate cause of increased fall moisture transports into the SE-US and resulting precipitation increases remains elusive, but this work improves our understanding of the succession of climatic events that contribute to increased fall precipitation and identify key areas of research needed to reduce uncertainty in SST-forced models. In the final research chapter, I address my second dissertation objective and broaden the focus to all of North America to investigate and contextualize the recent increase in the contrast between soil moisture anomalies in eastern and western North America, termed the east-west North American aridity gradient. Positive aridity gradient values refer to periods during which soil moisture anomalies are more positive in eastern relative to western North America. Using observed and tree-ring reconstructed summer soil moisture anomalies, I show that the 2001-2020 aridity gradient was more positive than any 20-year period since 1400 CE, which followed the most negative aridity gradient during 1976-1995. Using hydrologic models, I find the 2001-2020 aridity gradient anomaly was predominantly driven by century-long summer precipitation increases in the East and to a lesser degree by annual temperature and humidity trends and spring precipitation decreases in the West. Model-simulated anthropogenic trends have minimal effects on the aridity gradient trend due to high inter-model spread in modeled precipitation trends and larger warming effects in the East relative to the West. My findings reveal significant uncertainty in how human and natural systems will be impacted by changes in future water resource availability and provide a benchmark for evaluating North American hydroclimatic change in a warming world through the end of the 21st century.

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