This thesis examined an ability of the scoreboard indicators created by the European Commission to capture macroeconomic imbalances expressed as the changes of GDP. We conducted an empirical analysis for panel data of 27 EU countries in the 1997-2011 period. We adopted three different dynamic panel data models based on the three estimators: the Arrelano- Bond, the Arrelano-Bover and the corrected LSDV estimator. Our results suggest that despite some bad characteristics of our dataset we can conclude that some of the indicators such as 3- year average of current account balance or percentage change in export market shares seem to be inadequate for measuring the imbalances. Moreover, the indicators were proved not to be able to predict an occurrence of imbalances.

The purpose of this thesis is to empirically explore the characteristics of the monetary transmission mechanism, with a particular emphasis on the role of banks, in Turkey. By looking at the banking sector at the micro level and exploiting dynamic panel data modeling approaches, the heterogeneity in banks&rsquo / response in terms of their lending and risk-taking to changes in policy interest rates is analyzed. The first essay is an empirical analysis of the bank lending channel of monetary transmission. In this regard, the lending behavior of banks operating over the period 1988-2009 is examined. Given the changes in the policy stance and developments in the financial system following the 2000-01 crisis, the analysis is further conducted for the two sub-periods: 1988-2001 and 2002 2009, to examine whether there is a change in the functioning of the credit channel. Empirical evidence suggests cross sectional heterogeneity in banks&rsquo / response to monetary policy changes during 1988-2009. Regarding the results of the pre-crisis and post-crisis periods, it is found that an operative bank lending channel existed in 1988-2001, however its impact became much stronger thereafter. Furthermore, there are significant differences in the distributional effects due to bank specific characteristics in the impact of monetary policy on credit supply between the two sub-periods. The second essay investigates the existence of risk-taking channel of monetary policy by using quarterly data over the period 2002-2012. Four alternative risk measures are used in the analysis / three accounting-based risk indicators and a market-based indicator. Our findings show that low levels of interest rates have a positive impact of banks&rsquo / risk-taking behavior for all risk measures. In terms of bank specific characteristics, our results imply that large, liquid and well-capitalized banks are less prone to risk-taking.

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In this thesis, I first investigate the relation between the aggregate unemployment rate and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and outflows. To study this relationship, I use a panel data set that contains 45 (developed and developing) countries observed from 1987 through 2008, and I employ Arellano and Bonds generalized methods of moments (ABGMM) estimation method for dynamic panel data. My results show that FDI inflows and outflows are not determinants of the aggregate unemployment rate. In addition, in line with macroeconomic theory, the previous level of aggregate unemployment has a positive impact on the current level of aggregate unemployment. Again, as macroeconomic theory suggests, my results show that per capita real gross domestic product (RGDP) has a negative effect on the current level of aggregate unemployment. Second, I study the long-run relationship between exports and per capita gross domestic product (instrumented by total population) using a panel data set of 51 countries from 1970 through 2008. To study this relationship, I employ the dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) estimation method. I find that the percentage of exports in nominal gross domestic products (GDP) is sensitive to changes in the populations of host countries and, hence, to the changes in their GDP. In addition, my results show that the agreement on trade related investment measures increased the percentage of exports in the nominal GDP of developed host countries more than it did in developing host countries.

Yes / Drawing from 645 microfinance institutions across 56 countries, this paper examines the deposit-borrowing dynamic of microfinance institutions’ source of capital. We find that deposits and borrowings are substitutes rather than complements. We further find that the degree of substitutability is more pronounced among microfinance institutions operating in a developed financial sector where the level of information asymmetry is lower. Our findings represent novel contribution in understanding microfinance institutions’ funding behaviour that supports its quest for further growth and long-term sustainability. / Research Development Fund Publication Prize Award winner, April 2023.

Cette thèse s’inscrit au croisement de plusieurs domaines de la recherche économique de l’innovation. Notre démarche fait appel à des résultats empiriques issus de l’économétrie de l’innovation. Pour étudier la relation entre innovation et demande, l’outil le plus adapté nous semble être le modèle de la croissance endogène fondé sur l’innovation par opposition au modèle de la croissance exogène. La nature et la direction de cette relation ont été explorées par différents courants économiques qui peuvent être classés selon deux grandes écoles. Les premiers sont les tenants de la thèse dite de la poussée technologique de l’innovation (« Technology-Push Innovation ») que l’on peut considérer très globalement comme « tirés » par les travaux de Joseph Schumpeter. Les seconds sont les tenants de l’approche dite de l’impulsion par la demande de l’innovation (« Demand-Pull Innovation ») dont les travaux pionniers ont été baptisés par Jacob Schmookler. Les travaux de Kleinknecht et Verspagen (1990) nous ont fortement inspiré pour démarrer cette thèse. Notre démarche constitue un prolongement et une complexification de leur analyse. En effet, l’objectif de cette thèse est double : monter que la relation entre innovation et demande n’est pas unidirectionnelle et, ce constat vérifié, examiner la possibilité d’étudier l’hétérogénéité des industries au sens de ces deux approches en fonction de leurs niveaux technologiques.Il nous semble que notre travail contribue à la compréhension des déterminants de l’innovation tels qu’ils ressortent de la controverse « Demand-Pull » versus « Technology-push », de trois façons :1) En proposant un survey problématisé de la littérature sur l’innovation,2) En présentant de façon originale des données sur la R&D et la productivité des industries des pays de l’OCDE,3) En suggérant que les modèles à correction d’erreur, maintenant très bien maîtrisés, peuvent apporter d’utiles éclairages à la question des modèles d’innovation (« Demand-Pull » versus « Technology-push »). / This thesis is at the intersection of several fields of economic research of innovation. Our approach uses empirical results from the econometrics of innovation. To study the relationship between innovation and demand, the most suitable seems to be the endogenous growth model based on innovation as opposed to the exogenous growth model. The nature and the direction of this relationship have been explored by various economic flows that can be classified into two major schools. The first are the proponents of so-called “Technology-Push Innovation” which may be regarded very broadly as “learned” by the work of Joseph Schumpeter. The latter are the proponents of the approach “Demand-Pull Innovation”, whose pioneering works have been baptized by Jacob Schmookler.The works of Kleinknecht and Verspagen (1990) have greatly inspired us to start this thesis. Our approach is an extension of this analysis. The purpose of this thesis is twofold: 1) showing that the relationship between innovation and demand is not unidirectional, 2) and this finding verified, examining the heterogeneity of industries within the meaning of these two approaches based on their technology levels.It seems to us that our work contributes to understanding the determinants of innovation as they emerge from the controversy “Demand-Pull” versus “Technology-push”, in three ways: 1) By offering a problematized survey of the literature on innovation, 2) By presenting, in an original way, data on R&D and productivity of industries in OECD countries, 3) By suggesting that the error correction models, now very well controlled, can provide useful insights to the issue of innovation models (“Demand-Pull” versus “Technology-push”).

This thesis focuses on the development of credit to the private sector in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. Although the speed of credit growth in these countries has recently slowed down as the consequence of the global financial crisis, the overall increase in credit to the private sector over the past decades has been immense. As a result, the thesis examines whether this substantial increase in credit is linked to the convergence of the CEE countries towards the equilibrium or whether it represents an excessive credit growth that could threaten the macroeconomic and financial stability in these countries. We estimate the equilibrium credit levels for 11 transition countries by applying a dynamic panel data model. Since in-sample approach may bias the estimation results we perform the estimates out-of-sample using a panel of selected developed EU countries as a benchmark. The difference between the actual and estimated credit-to-GDP ratios serves as a measure of private credit excessiveness. The results indicate a slightly excessive or close to the equilibrium credit-to-GDP ratios in Bulgaria, Estonia, and Latvia prior to the financial crisis. With regard to the significant decline in GDP during the crisis this measure of credit excessiveness in these countries have further increased.

As conclusões das pesquisas sobre velocidade de ajustamento da estrutura de capital em direção ao alvo (SOA - Speed Of Adjustment) são muito divergentes quanto à velocidade medida. A maioria dos estudos mensura o SOA sem levar em conta certas especificidades das empresas ou de suas estratégias. Dividindo-se a amostra em empresas não adquirentes, adquirentes eventuais e adquirentes em série, o presente estudo tem por objetivo investigar o padrão de comportamento do SOA no período entre 1990 e 2010 para empresas norte-americanas. Considerando diversas variáveis de controle (restrições financeiras, oportunidades de crescimento, grau de alavancagem financeira e emissão/redução de dívidas e ações), tem-se uma investigação mais aprofundada de como as empresas não adquirentes, adquirentes eventuais e adquirentes em série ajustam sua estrutura de capital em direção ao alvo. São utilizadas como variáveis dependentes o endividamento a valor de mercado e endividamento líquido a valor de mercado. Verificou-se que os endividamentos médios para as três amostras são diferentes entre si, de forma estatisticamente significante. As empresas adquirentes em série possuem o menor endividamento, ao passo que as empresas não adquirentes são as mais endividadas, estando as empresas adquirentes eventuais em posição intermediária quanto ao endividamento. Este resultado sugere que as empresas possuem padrões de endividamentos distintos em função de sua política de investimentos relacionada à aquisições. É utilizado o modelo de ajustamento parcial para mensurar o SOA, empregando painel de dados dinâmico com a técnica do Método dos Momentos Generalizados (GMM) Sistêmico para se medir a velocidade de ajustamento da estrutura de capital de um período a outro. Esta técnica tem-se mostrado a menos enviesada e, assim, tem sido uma das mais utilizadas em trabalhos empíricos. Os resultados encontrados evidenciam que o padrão de comportamento do SOA pode depender da sua estratégia de investimentos em aquisições. O SOA das empresas adquirentes em série é constantemente menor em comparação ao SOA das empresas adquirentes, mesmo considerando as diversas variáveis de controle. O SOA das empresas não adquirentes permanece em posição intermediária. Esses resultados em conjunto sugerem que a folga financeira (baixo nível de endividamento e elevado saldo de caixa) seja um fator relevante para as adquirentes em série. Desse modo, tais empresas ajustam seu endividamento de forma mais lenta, em resposta a uma estrutura de capital mais adequada à sua política de investimentos. Por outro lado, as empresas adquirentes eventuais ajustam mais rapidamente sua estrutura de capital em função de sua política de aquisições esporádicas. / The conclusions of surveys on speed of adjustment (SOA) towards the target capital structure are widely divergent as regards the measured speed. Most studies measure the SOA without taking into account certain specificities of the companies or of their strategies. Dividing the sample in non-acquiring companies, sporadic acquiring companies and serial acquirers, this study seeks to investigate the pattern of behavior of the SOA, in the period between 1990 and 2010 for North American companies. Considering several control variables (financial restrictions, growth opportunities, degree of financial leverage and issuance/reduction of debts and shares), we have a more in-depth investigation into how non-acquiring companies, sporadic acquiring companies and serial acquirers adjust their capital structure towards the target. Market leverage value and net market leverage are used as dependent variables. It was verified that the average debt levels for the three samples are different from one another, in a statistically significant manner. The serial acquirers have the lowest leverage, while non-acquiring companies have the highest leverage, with acquirers companies in an intermediate position on the leverage. This result suggests that companies have different debts patterns, due to its investment policy related to acquisitions. The partial adjustment model is employed to measure the SOA, using dynamic panel data with the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) Systemic to measure the speed of adjustment of the capital structure from one period to another. This technique has shown itself to be less biased and has thus been one of the most commonly used techniques in empirical studies. The results show evidence that the SOA may depend of its investment strategy. The SOA of serial acquirers companies is constantly lower than the SOA of acquiring companies, even considering all the control variables. The SOA of non-acquiring companies remains in an intermediate position. Taken together, these results suggest that the financial slack (low debt and high cash balance) is a relevant factor to serial acquirers. Thus such companies adjust their debt more slowly in response to a more adequate capital structure to their investment policy. On the other hand, sporadic acquiring companies adjust faster its capital structure, due to its sporadic acquisition policy.

<p>This thesis consists of a summary and four papers. The first two concerns health care and sickness absence, and the last two pharmaceutical costs and prices.</p><p>Paper [I] presents an economic federation model which resembles the situation in, for example, Sweden. In the model the state governments provide health care, the fed-eral government provides a sickness benefit and both levels tax labor income. The re-sults show that the states can have either an incentive to under- or over-provide health care. The federal government can, by introducing an intergovernmental transfer, in-duce the state governments to provide the socially optimal amount of health care.</p><p>In Paper [II] the effect of aggregated public health care expenditure on absence from work due to sickness or disability was estimated. The analysis was based on data from a panel of the Swedish municipalities for the period 1993-2004. Public health care expenditure was found to have no statistically significant effect on absence and the standard errors were small enough to rule out all but a minimal effect. The result held when separate estimations were conducted for women and men, and for absence due to sickness and disability.</p><p>The purpose of Paper [III] was to study the effects of the introduction of fixed pharmaceutical budgets for two health centers in Västerbotten, Sweden. Estimation results using propensity score matching methods show that there are no systematic differences for either price or quantity per prescription between health centers using fixed and open-ended budgets. The analysis was based on individual prescription data from the two health centers and a control group both before and after the introduction of fixed budgets.</p><p>In Paper [IV] the introduction of the Swedish substitution reform in October 2002 was used as a natural experiment to examine the effects of increased consumer infor-mation on pharmaceutical prices. Using monthly data on individual pharmaceutical prices, the average reduction of prices due to the reform was estimated to four percent for both brand name and generic pharmaceuticals during the first four years after the reform. The results also show that the price adjustment was not instant.</p>

Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2006