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The strategy of presidential campaignsDay, Jonathan Paul 01 July 2010 (has links)
Do campaigns have an effect on the outcome of elections? This question is usually answered using one of two methods. The first method is when political pundits examine the two opposing campaigns and judge which one had a greater impact on the polls. The second method is when political scientists use statistical methods to analyze whether a campaign had an effect on the election outcome. Both methods fail to consider the factors influencing campaign strategies and the effect these campaign strategies have on the election outcome.
A third method, which I present in this dissertation, uses a formal model. This formal model treats the presidential election as a game between the two candidates competing for electoral votes in fifty-one locations. The model incorporates the assumption that the two candidates can have different prior probabilities of winning each state and can have different degrees of effectiveness at getting votes. The solution to this model is straightforward, but interesting. Candidate strategies are determined by the effectiveness of the candidates, the competitiveness of the state, and the state's electoral value. Candidates will allocate more resources 1) to states with higher electoral value, 2) to more competitive states, and 3) when they are more effective at getting votes. The structure of the model also provides an answer of when candidates can have an effect on the election outcome. When one candidate is more effective at getting votes, then that candidate will allocate more resources and receive a greater marginal return on each unit of resource than their opponent, resulting in an effect on the election outcome in their favor.
To test the model, I examine the historical record of the campaigns and candidate strategies in the nine presidential elections from 1976 to 2008. These historical accounts provide qualitative support for the assumptions and predictions of the model. I also statistically analyze data from five of these presidential elections and show quantitative support for the assumptions and predictions of the model.
Finally, I conclude by showing that the model is useful in answering other questions regarding campaigns in general, such as how candidates should allocate resources in governor and senate elections; how third party candidates should allocate resources; what happens if candidate effectiveness varies across state or time; and what happens if the cost varies across state? The model's ability to answer these questions shows that it can have a broad and substantial influence in the study of campaigns and elections.
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Electoral Abuse in the Late Roman RepublicTroxler, Howard 02 April 2008 (has links)
Escalating abuse of elections was a hallmark of the collapse of the Republic that governed at Rome for nearly 500 years before it was swept away and replaced by emperors and Empire. The causes of the Republic's fall are well-explored, but electoral abuse was one of the agencies by which it was brought low - a "how" that helps explain the "why." The abuse of regular electoral form, practiced by all parties, inured the Romans to further and ever-widening abuse. In the end their elections - and the Republic - lost both meaning and independence. This is a controversial claim that falls within the modern debate over the significance of the late-Republican turmoil and just how "democratic" the system was at all.
A review of the primary source accounts shows a pattern of abuse that clearly accelerated over the final century, until the turning-point of the 60s and 50s B.C., a morass of elections delayed, canceled, marred by violence, ruined by bribery or prearranged by bargain. We can categorize these abuses and examine their effect on societal attitudes and subsequent practice. After 50 B.C. control of the state passed to Caesar and then the second triumvirs, who used these precedents to do as they pleased. In the end Augustus "restored" the Republic by restoring its old forms - with an unspoken different meaning. It was no coincidence that Augustus paid showy respect to the Republican voting assemblies, the voting-places and the annual election rituals.
The escalating abuse of elections inculcated in the Romans the idea that their constitution and the rule of law had no intrinsic value by themselves, but existed only as tools in the service of power and desired goals. With the rule of law battered into submission, the Republic all the more easily succumbed to the rule of men. The fall was brought about not by external armies or revolution, but by the Romans' own tacit agreement that their rules could be bent and broken as needed. For the Romans, at least, the argument that "the ends justify the means" proved to be the antithesis and the undoing of constitutional government.
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Assessment of the effect of a civics information intervention on the participation of year 13 students in the 2004 local body elections in North Shore CityBaillie, Pamela Unknown Date (has links)
Young people in the Western world demonstrate that they have little connection to democratic processes through their increasing absence from the polls at election time. This trend is evidenced in New Zealand where the secondary school curriculum has little content concerning electoral and political processes. Low voter turn-out is particularly prevalent in the triennial local body elections where only a small proportion of all eligible voters participate.This research is based within two North Shore City secondary schools and has two objectives. The first to establish the current understanding of Year 13 students of the local authority, its activities, governance and decision-making processes and the second to assess the effect of this information on the election activity of the participants. Following the provision of this information to the selected classes and after 2004 local authority elections, the same classes completed questionnaires to ascertain whether their participation (voting and non-voting) in the elections was affected by this intervention. A post-election focus group of non-school-based newly eligible voters enabled some qualitative inquiry into rationale and attitudes.The findings indicate a wide degree of ignorance and reinforce the current political situation where young people see no relevance to them of local authority politics. The research highlights the need to engage young people in civic matters and increase their ownership of and involvement in the democratic process.
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Femmes et politique : le cas des femmes élues en Sarthe de 1945 à 2010Garreau, Bernard 31 May 2012 (has links) (PDF)
Tout en s'inscrivant dans le cadre général de l'histoire des femmes et de l'histoire électoralecontemporaine, la thèse se veut d'abord une thèse d'histoire locale quantitative et fait appel égalementà quelques données relevant d'autres disciplines (science politique, droit public, sociologie). Tout endonnant lieu à une comparaison avec l'évolution constatée au plan national, la thèse s'intéresse àl'histoire d'une population donnée (toutes les catégories de femmes élues), dans un espacegéographique donné (le département de la Sarthe), sur une période donnée (1945-2010).L'augmentation du nombre de femmes élues et la diversification des fonctions auxquelles elles ontaccédé sont appréhendées au travers d'une interrogation qui exprime la problématique de la thèse, àsavoir : quelle est la portée de cette progression et quelle signification peut-on y donner ? En réponsela thèse s'efforce de montrer que cette progression quantitative des femmes élues s'est accompagnéed'un certain nombre de pratiques réglementaires ou comportementales qui en limitent la portée et ennuancent la signification. Le plan chronologique adopté permet de mettre en relief les trois phases quiont marqué l'histoire des femmes élues en Sarthe de 1945 à 2010 en reliant chacune à la problématiquegénérale. Cette articulation générale de la thèse débouche ainsi sur un plan en 3 parties intituléesrespectivement : Les années 1945/1970 : une présence tolérée, un statut inchangé ; Les années1970/1990 : une présence acceptée, une pression contenue ; Les années 1990 / 2010 : une présencereconnue, une inégalité maintenue.
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Femmes et politique : le cas des femmes élues en Sarthe de 1945 à 2010Garreau, Bernard 31 May 2012 (has links) (PDF)
Tout en s'inscrivant dans le cadre général de l'histoire des femmes et de l'histoire électoralecontemporaine, la thèse se veut d'abord une thèse d'histoire locale quantitative et fait appel égalementà quelques données relevant d'autres disciplines (science politique, droit public, sociologie). Tout endonnant lieu à une comparaison avec l'évolution constatée au plan national, la thèse s'intéresse àl'histoire d'une population donnée (toutes les catégories de femmes élues), dans un espacegéographique donné (le département de la Sarthe), sur une période donnée (1945-2010).L'augmentation du nombre de femmes élues et la diversification des fonctions auxquelles elles ontaccédé sont appréhendées au travers d'une interrogation qui exprime la problématique de la thèse, àsavoir : quelle est la portée de cette progression et quelle signification peut-on y donner ? En réponsela thèse s'efforce de montrer que cette progression quantitative des femmes élues s'est accompagnéed'un certain nombre de pratiques réglementaires ou comportementales qui en limitent la portée et ennuancent la signification. Le plan chronologique adopté permet de mettre en relief les trois phases quiont marqué l'histoire des femmes élues en Sarthe de 1945 à 2010 en reliant chacune à la problématiquegénérale. Cette articulation générale de la thèse débouche ainsi sur un plan en 3 parties intituléesrespectivement : Les années 1945/1970 : une présence tolérée, un statut inchangé ; Les années1970/1990 : une présence acceptée, une pression contenue ; Les années 1990 / 2010 : une présencereconnue, une inégalité maintenue.
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Femmes et politique : le cas des femmes élues en Sarthe de 1945 à 2010Garreau, Bernard 31 May 2012 (has links) (PDF)
Tout en s'inscrivant dans le cadre général de l'histoire des femmes et de l'histoire électoralecontemporaine, la thèse se veut d'abord une thèse d'histoire locale quantitative et fait appel égalementà quelques données relevant d'autres disciplines (science politique, droit public, sociologie). Tout endonnant lieu à une comparaison avec l'évolution constatée au plan national, la thèse s'intéresse àl'histoire d'une population donnée (toutes les catégories de femmes élues), dans un espacegéographique donné (le département de la Sarthe), sur une période donnée (1945-2010).L'augmentation du nombre de femmes élues et la diversification des fonctions auxquelles elles ontaccédé sont appréhendées au travers d'une interrogation qui exprime la problématique de la thèse, àsavoir : quelle est la portée de cette progression et quelle signification peut-on y donner ? En réponsela thèse s'efforce de montrer que cette progression quantitative des femmes élues s'est accompagnéed'un certain nombre de pratiques réglementaires ou comportementales qui en limitent la portée et ennuancent la signification. Le plan chronologique adopté permet de mettre en relief les trois phases quiont marqué l'histoire des femmes élues en Sarthe de 1945 à 2010 en reliant chacune à la problématiquegénérale. Cette articulation générale de la thèse débouche ainsi sur un plan en 3 parties intituléesrespectivement : Les années 1945/1970 : une présence tolérée, un statut inchangé ; Les années1970/1990 : une présence acceptée, une pression contenue ; Les années 1990 / 2010 : une présencereconnue, une inégalité maintenue.
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The Women's International Zionist Organization at the critical juncture of statehood : a political analysis of the Israeli women's movement 1918-2001 /Simmons Levin, Leah. January 2002 (has links)
Thesis (Ph. D.)--York University, 2002. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 280-301). Also available on the Internet.
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Iranische Wahl : auf den Spuren des grünen Sommers / Iranian elections : on the track of the green summerZamirirad, Azadeh January 2010 (has links)
Die zehnten Präsidentschaftswahlen im Iran sorgten für einen Eklat. Ausgerechnet im Jubiläumsjahr, in dem man sich mit Stolz präsentieren wollte, erlebt die Islamische Republik ihren größten Legitimitätsverlust. Mit der Verkündung von Ahmadinedschads Wahlsieg löste das Regime eine Welle der Empörung aus, die bis heute nicht abgeklungen ist. Zwar konnten die Proteste den amtierenden Präsidenten nicht von seiner zweiten Amtszeit abhalten, doch der grüne Sommer hat seine Spuren in der Theokratie hinterlassen.
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Analyzing the Meritocratic and Functional Deficiencies of the American Political SystemBenard, Maximilian K 01 January 2013 (has links)
The American political system is currently not as meritocratic or functional as it should be. The reasons for this can be traced to problems in five categories of the political landscape: The System, The Elections, The Electorate, The Media, and The Money. These deficiencies cause less able leaders to be voted into office, and make it harder for politicians to generate positive results for their people. By addressing these problems, American democracy can exist in its healthiest form.
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Candidates, Campaigns, and Political Tides: Electoral Success in Colorado's 4th DistrictMacColl, Megan Gwynne 01 January 2012 (has links)
The race between Republican Cory Gardner and Democratic incumbent Betsy Markey for Colorado's 4th Congressional District was a partisan fight for political momentum. In the 2010 campaign cycle, Republicans looked to retake the historically Republican 4th District as part of a national strategy to win back the U.S. House, while Democrats tried desperately to hold on to both. Cory Gardner was only one of fifty-four Republican challengers to defeat a Democratic incumbent in 2010, but the Gardner-Markey race is particularly interesting as a case study of voter motivation and the mediating forces, both regional and national, that influence electoral success. Political commentators and staffers from both campaigns describe Markey's defeat as inevitable, but the same sources explain the election results from three different theoretical perspectives: (1) Betsy Markey was a poor fit for the district and never represented constituent interests, (2) Cory Gardner was the perfect candidate, and (3) Markey’s defeat was a result of the national political mood and a referendum on Democrats in Washington. This thesis analyzes and evaluates each of these theories, and concludes that a combination of the arguments and their evidence provides the most complete answer. While no single theory is the definitive reason that voters in the 4th District elected Cory Gardner, each contributes to a comprehensive understanding of the inevitability of Rep. Betsy Markey's defeat in 2010.
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