Wong Kwan-to. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2001. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 50-52). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / ACKNOWLEDGMENT --- p.iii / CHAPTER / Chapter ONE --- INTRODUCTION AND LITERATURE REVIEW --- p.1 / Chapter TWO --- THE MODEL --- p.3 / Chapter THREE --- ASYMPTOTIC BEHAVIOR OF THE LEAST SQUARES ESTIMATORS --- p.6 / Chapter FOUR --- EIGHT SPECIAL CASES --- p.12 / Chapter FIVE --- MONTE CARLO EXPERIMENTS --- p.36 / Chapter SIX --- CONCLUSION --- p.40 / APPENDIX --- p.41 / BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.50

Tam Chi Sang. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2003. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 73-76). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.p.1 / Chapter 1.1 --- Review of Literature --- p.p.4 / Chapter 1.2 --- Relationships to the existing works --- p.p.11 / Chapter 2 --- Demand Functions --- p.p.20 / Chapter 3 --- Exogenous Timing Duopoly --- p.p.24 / Chapter 3.1 --- Description of the game --- p.p.24 / Chapter 3.2 --- Equilibrium Analysis --- p.p.27 / Chapter 4 --- Endogenous Timing Duopoly --- p.p.38 / Chapter 4.1 --- Description of the game --- p.p.38 / Chapter 4.2 --- Equilibrium Analysis --- p.p.41 / Chapter 5 --- Concluding Remarks --- p.p.52 / Chapter 6 --- Appendix --- p.p.56 / Chapter 6.1 --- Reaction functions in the Exogenous Timing Model --- p.p.56 / Chapter 6.2 --- Reaction functions in the Endogenous Timing Model --- p.p.62 / Chapter 6.3 --- Proofs for Inequalities (10)，(13)，and Proposition 1 --- p.p.66 / Chapter 6.4 --- "Proofs for Inequalities (22), (23), (26), (27), and Proposition 2" --- p.p.67 / Chapter 6.4.1 --- Proofs for Inequalities (22) and (23) with γ >0 --- p.p.67 / Chapter 6.4.2 --- Proofs for Inequalities (26) and (27) with γ <0 --- p.p.70 / Chapter 6.4.3 --- Proof for Proposition 2 --- p.p.72 / References --- p.p.73

by Wai-Man Leung. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1998. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 107-112). / Abstract also in Chinese. / Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 1.1 --- Problems of Cointegration Analysis --- p.1 / Chapter 1.2 --- Contributions of this Research --- p.2 / Chapter 1.3 --- Applications of this Research --- p.3 / Chapter 1.4 --- Organization of this Thesis --- p.3 / Chapter 2 --- Foreign Exchange Features --- p.5 / Chapter 2.1 --- Spot Exchange Rate Markets --- p.5 / Chapter 2.2 --- Development of International Monetary System --- p.6 / Chapter 2.3 --- Determinants of Foreign Exchange Rates --- p.7 / Chapter 2.4 --- Description of Foreign Exchange Data --- p.9 / Chapter 3 --- Literature Overview --- p.17 / Chapter 3.1 --- Model Selection --- p.17 / Chapter 3.2 --- Line and Curve Detection......................................................' --- p.20 / Chapter 3.3 --- Concluding Remarks --- p.23 / Chapter 4 --- Regression by Minor Component Analysis --- p.24 / Chapter 4.1 --- Regression by Ordinary Least Squares --- p.24 / Chapter 4.2 --- Regression by Total Least Squares --- p.27 / Chapter 4.3 --- The comparison of PCA and MCA --- p.28 / Chapter 4.4 --- Experiment 4A : Regression on Artifical Data --- p.29 / Chapter 4.5 --- Experiment 4B : Regression on FX Data --- p.30 / Chapter 4.6 --- Concluding Remarks --- p.32 / Chapter 5 --- Cointegration Test by Minor Component Analysis --- p.33 / Chapter 5.1 --- Concept of Cointegration --- p.33 / Chapter 5.2 --- MCA Based Cointegration Test --- p.34 / Chapter 5.3 --- Experiment 5B : Cointegration Test on FX Data --- p.36 / Chapter 5.4 --- Concluding Remarks --- p.38 / Chapter 6 --- Model Selection by Minor Component Analysis --- p.44 / Chapter 6.1 --- Hypothesis Test on Minor Component Coefficients --- p.44 / Chapter 6.2 --- Experiment 6B : Forward Selection on FX Data --- p.46 / Chapter 6.3 --- Experiment 6B : Backward Elimination on FX Data --- p.50 / Chapter 6.4 --- Experiment 6C : MCA Based Selection on FX Data --- p.53 / Chapter 6.5 --- Concluding Remarks --- p.54 / Chapter 7 --- Cointegration by Modular MCA --- p.55 / Chapter 7.1 --- Ordinary Modular MCA Based Cointegration --- p.56 / Chapter 7.2 --- Experiment 8A : OMMCA on Artificial Data --- p.58 / Chapter 7.3 --- Experiment 8B : OMMCA on FX Data --- p.63 / Chapter 7.4 --- Variable-Dependent Modular MCA Method --- p.71 / Chapter 7.5 --- "Experiment 8C : VMMCA on Artificial Data," --- p.73 / Chapter 7.6 --- Experiment 8D : VMMCA on FX Data --- p.80 / Chapter 7.7 --- Adaptive Modular MCA Based Cointegration --- p.89 / Chapter 7.8 --- Experiment 8E : AMMCA on Artificial Data --- p.90 / Chapter 7.9 --- Experiment 8F : AMMCA on FX Data --- p.94 / Chapter 7.10 --- Concluding Remarks --- p.103 / Chapter 8 --- Conclusions and Future Works --- p.105

This dissertation consists of three essays that sit at the intersection of international trade, political economy and the economics of innovation. It analyzes from a critical perspective the relationship between organized interest groups and international agreements on trade and intellectual property rights (IPR) protection and offers new theoretical insights, which it then supports empirically. My first essay calls into question the logic of the standard Grossman-Helpman/Bagwell-Staiger model of trade agreements, according to which governments enter international treaties to prevent terms-of-trade manipulation and special interest politics has a trivial role. Despite its immense popularity, it remains inconsistent with observed trade policy and with the practitioners' understanding of trade treaties. By assuming that subsidies have additional political cost beyond their monetary cost, I show how international agreements result in the reduction of political protectionism through the crucial role of exporting lobbies in the negotiations process. At the same time, the model resolves three prominent puzzles in the literature: the terms-of-trade puzzle, the anti-trade bias puzzle and the inefficient redistribution puzzle. Finally I find empirical support for the model and my key assumption using data on US agricultural trade policy. In the second essay I propose a model that considers the effect of firm lobbying for IPR protection in an international setting in innovation-driven economies. In particular, I compare the IPR protection level and global social welfare between the case when countries set their IPR policies non-cooperatively and when they enter an international treaty, such as the TRIPS, TPP and TTIP. I find that lobbying necessarily leads to inefficient international agreements resulting in too much IPR protection and may even be welfare-reducing relative to no cooperation. I also show that international lobbying and high concentration of capital can further exacerbate this outcome. The model generates predictions consistent with patterns I find in the data on US firms' lobbying expenditures and the value of their international patent portfolios. Finally, the third essay provides a critique of a popular structural patent valuation methodology that utilizes the stock market response to news about patent grants, first introduced by Kogan et al. (2012). Using their methodology (refined and improved in terms of the theoretical derivation), I perform a placebo estimation of US patent values and compare the results with the true patent value estimates as per Kogan et al's paper. I find strong evidence that the "true" patent value estimates are not driven by patent news announcements, but rather are an artifact of the estimation methodology itself and as such cannot be used for comparisons across different patent-holding firms and grant years. I further corroborate the external validity of this critique by applying the same method to a novel database of Chinese patents and finding that the same conclusion holds.

My dissertation focuses upon low inflation. Many developed countries, especially Japan and the Eurozone, have recently experienced prolonged periods of below-target inflation. This has been blamed for many economic ills including worsening the Great Recession and generating a slow recovery, making monetary policy ineffective and leading to lower labor market flexibility. I study what has caused low inflation, its potential effects and how it could be prevented. In Chapter 1, I look at how effective raising the inflation target would be in mitigating the problems of low inflation. Many economists have proposed raising the inflation target to reduce the probability of hitting the zero lower bound (ZLB). It is both widely assumed and a feature of standard models that raising the inflation target does not impact the equilibrium real rate. I demonstrate that once heterogeneity is introduced, raising the inflation target causes the equilibrium real rate to fall in the New Keynesian model. This implies that raising the inflation target will increase the nominal interest rate by less than expected and thus will be less effective in reducing the probability of hitting the ZLB. The channel is that a rise in the inflation target lowers the average markup by price rigidities and a fall in the average markup lowers the equilibrium real rate by household heterogeneity which could come from overlapping generations or idiosyncratic labor shocks. Raising the inflation target from 2% to 4% lowers the equilibrium real rate by 0.38 percentage points in my baseline calibration. I also analyse the optimal inflation level and provide empirical evidence in support of the model mechanism. In Chapter 2, I study to what degree the recent fall in inflation can explain the rise in firm profitability which has been blamed for a rise in inequality. A theoretical relationship between inflation and profitability is known to exist. I investigate the degree to which the recent fall in inflation can explain the rise in firm profitability. My three primary findings are: 1. The negative relationship between inflation and profitability does not hinge upon the Calvo assumption. Raising inflation significantly lowers profitability under all common price rigidities. The relationship can actually be significantly stronger under menu costs. 2. A rise in the degree to which firms discount the future magnifies the effect; a rise in elasticity of substitution can increase or decrease the effect depending upon the price rigidity. 3. The profit share has risen by around 3.5p.p. since the 1990s. In a richer model with firm heterogeneity, the recent fall in inflation is estimated to explain 14% of the rise. This can increase to 29% if firms are allowed to discount the future by more in line with estimates from the finance literature. I also provide empirical evidence for the negative relationship between inflation and firm profits. In Chapter 3, I examine whether behavioral features can help to explain why some countries have persistently experienced low inflation at the zero lower bound. Economists are keen to introduce behavioral assumptions into modern macroeconomic models. A popular framework for doing so is sparse dynamic programming, which assumes that agents partly base their expectations upon a default model which is typically the steady state. This means agents' expectations will be wrong if there are long-run deviations from the default model and assumes agents can compute the default. I introduce an alternative form of sparse dynamic programming which tackles these problems by allowing for long-run updating to the behavioral part of agents' expectations. I apply this to derive a long-run behavioral New Keynesian model. Within this model, fixed interest rates yield indeterminacy and the costs of remaining at the zero lower bound are unbounded. These results are very different to a behavioral New Keynesian model based upon standard sparse dynamic programming, which can yield determinacy under fixed interest rates and bounded costs of the zero lower bound.

by Ao, Sio Iong. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2003. / Includes bibliographical references. / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 1.1 --- Overview --- p.2 / Chapter 1.2 --- Topics of this Study --- p.3 / Chapter 1.3 --- Econometric Analysis --- p.3 / Chapter 1.4 --- Computational Intelligence --- p.4 / Chapter 1.4.1 --- Overview --- p.4 / Chapter 1.4.2 --- Successful Cases of Applying CI in Time Series Analysis --- p.4 / Chapter 2 --- Background --- p.6 / Chapter 2.1 --- Market Descriptions --- p.6 / Chapter 2.1.1 --- Overview of the Markets --- p.6 / Chapter 2.2 --- VAR method --- p.10 / Chapter 2.2.1 --- Introduction --- p.11 / Chapter 2.2.2 --- Implementation of VAR by RATS --- p.12 / Chapter 2.2.3 --- Impulse Response Functions --- p.12 / Chapter 2.3 --- Neural Network --- p.14 / Chapter 2.3.1 --- Introduction --- p.14 / Chapter 2.3.2 --- Supervised vs Unsupervised learning --- p.15 / Chapter 2.3.3 --- Back-Propagation network --- p.15 / Chapter 2.4 --- Evolutionary Computation --- p.19 / Chapter 2.4.1 --- Motivation of Employing Evolutionary Computation --- p.19 / Chapter 2.4.2 --- Brief Description --- p.21 / Chapter 2.4.3 --- Genetic Algorithm --- p.21 / Chapter 3 --- Analysis of their Interdependence and SD --- p.23 / Chapter 3.1 --- Interdependence of the Asian Indices --- p.23 / Chapter 3.2 --- Forecasting Index Price with the Help of Neural Network --- p.26 / Chapter 3.3 --- Interdependence of the Standard Deviations of the Stock Indices --- p.28 / Chapter 3.4 --- Using the Neural Network to Make Forecasting of the Stan- dard Deviations --- p.29 / Chapter 3.5 --- Summary --- p.33 / Chapter 4 --- Forecasting Opening Prices --- p.34 / Chapter 4.1 --- Step 1: Identificating of the Interdependence of the Opening Price on Different Stock Indices by VAR --- p.36 / Chapter 4.2 --- Step 2: Using the Neural Network to Make Forecasting of the Opening Prices --- p.38 / Chapter 4.3 --- Summary --- p.39 / Chapter 5 --- Incorporating Correlated Markets --- p.41 / Chapter 5.1 --- Overview of the Markets from the Prespectives of VAR --- p.43 / Chapter 5.2 --- Investigation of the Correlations by VAR Method --- p.43 / Chapter 5.3 --- Prediction of the Market by Neural Network --- p.46 / Chapter 5.4 --- Hypothesis: the Correlations of the Markets Are Time-Dependent --- p.46 / Chapter 5.5 --- Testing this Hypothesis with Predictions by Neural Network . --- p.48 / Chapter 5.6 --- Summary --- p.51 / Chapter 5.7 --- F-tests Results on Different Periods of HK Markets --- p.51 / Chapter 6 --- Hybrid VAR-NN-EC System --- p.53 / Chapter 6.1 --- Introduction --- p.53 / Chapter 6.1.1 --- Overview of the Econometric Analysis of the Lead-Lag Relationship of Stock Markets --- p.54 / Chapter 6.1.2 --- Previous Results of Employing the Stand-alone Neural Network --- p.55 / Chapter 6.2 --- Working Mechanism of the Hybrid VAR-NN-EC --- p.56 / Chapter 6.3 --- Comparing Results from the VAR-NN-EC System --- p.58 / Chapter 6.4 --- Summary --- p.60 / Chapter 7 --- Hybrid System for Dual-Listing Indices --- p.61 / Chapter 7.1 --- Introduction --- p.61 / Chapter 7.2 --- HSI vs HSLRI --- p.62 / Chapter 7.2.1 --- HSI's Selection Criteria --- p.62 / Chapter 7.2.2 --- Hang Seng London Reference Index --- p.63 / Chapter 7.2.3 --- Motivation for the Study --- p.63 / Chapter 7.3 --- Data Descriptions --- p.64 / Chapter 7.4 --- Overviews of this Analysis System --- p.64 / Chapter 7.5 --- Results from the Simplified AR-NN System --- p.65 / Chapter 7.5.1 --- Regression Results --- p.66 / Chapter 7.5.2 --- NN Results --- p.67 / Chapter 7.6 --- Summary --- p.68 / Chapter 8 --- Using EC for Selecting Stock Experts --- p.70 / Chapter 8.1 --- Example of Evolutionary Computation --- p.71 / Chapter 8.2 --- Comparison of Results from the VAR-NN-EC System --- p.72 / Chapter 8.3 --- Summary --- p.73 / Chapter 9 --- Conclusion --- p.74 / Bibliography --- p.i

Choi Tsz Wang. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2004. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 43-45). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 2 --- Review of Structural Models --- p.5 / Chapter 2.1 --- The Merton model --- p.5 / Chapter 2.2 --- The default barrier model of Black and Cox --- p.7 / Chapter 3 --- Estimating the Merton model --- p.10 / Chapter 3.1 --- The Variance Restriction (VR) method --- p.10 / Chapter 3.2 --- The Maximum Likelihood estimation (ML) method --- p.12 / Chapter 3.3 --- Comparison between VR and ML methods --- p.13 / Chapter 4 --- Implications of Using the Proxy in Default Barrier Estimation --- p.15 / Chapter 4.1 --- Rejection of SC framework --- p.16 / Chapter 4.2 --- Positive barrier implication --- p.17 / Chapter 4.3 --- Barier over debt implication --- p.17 / Chapter 4.4 --- Numerical illustration --- p.19 / Chapter 5 --- The Proposed Framework --- p.22 / Chapter 5.1 --- Maximum likelihood estimation --- p.23 / Chapter 5.2 --- Barrier-to-debt ratio specification --- p.25 / Chapter 5.3 --- Simulation checks --- p.26 / Chapter 5.4 --- Comments on the performance of α --- p.29 / Chapter 6 --- Estimation with Empirical Data --- p.33 / Chapter 6.1 --- Description of data --- p.33 / Chapter 6.2 --- Empirical results --- p.35 / Chapter 7 --- Conclusion --- p.41 / References --- p.43

香港自1983年10月實施聯繫匯率制度開始，財政政策便成為香港政府唯一穩定經濟的措施。為了善用有限的財政儲備，本文嘗試建立一個計量模型，以作評估財政政策對香港經濟的影響。Jha et al. (2010)曾指出香港政府增加財政支出會對經濟有顯著的負面影響，而利用Ravn et al. (2007)的結構向量自回歸（SVAR）模型亦得出相類似的結果。以上的研究結果與一般學者對財政政策的觀點有所出入，而其中一個可能性是它們所使用的計量模型中遺漏了控制變數。當加入摩根士丹利亞太區指數－MSCI AC (All countries) Pacific Index作為對外貿易環境的控制變數後，擴張性財政政策的預測結果則與之前的研究相同。在更換經修改後模型中的投資變數後，模型則預測增加財政支出並不會對投資產生擠擁效應。而經分解後的財政支出分析更顯示政策支出類型是影響財政政策效應乘數的關鍵因素。模型亦估算政府增加經常性開支會對經濟有着顯著的正面作用。若香港政府需於在短期內推行擴張性財政政策，本文建議政府應集中資源於基礎建設上，以達至財政政策效用最大化的經濟效果。 / Given the adoption of the linked exchange rate since October 1983, fiscal policy becomes the only measurement for stabilizing the Hong Kong economy. This paper attempts to establish a framework for evaluating the fiscal effect to prevent the abuse of fiscal measures. The empirical study of Jha et al. (2010) revealed the significant negative impact of fiscal effect in Hong Kong, which violates the classical view of fiscal policy. A similar result has been found by adopting another structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model proposed by Ravn et al. (2007). An omission of control variables in the quantitative model is possible. The MSCI AC (All countries) Pacific Index has been introduced as an international block in the SVAR model proposed by Ravn et al. (2007). The fiscal effect becomes positive and standardizes with the previous fiscal studies. The replacement of investment variable in the modified model suggests that positive fiscal innovation does not encounter with the crowding out effect on investment. The estimations for the decomposition policy expenditures indicate that compositional effect exists, and it undermines the fiscal multiplier. The estimations also reveal that the innovation in recurrent expenditure contributes mainly to the fiscal effect. With the persistence and significant impact on output, concentrating on infrastructure expenditure is the recommendation on Hong Kong fiscal policy to maximize the expansionary effect in the short run. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Wong, Chi Shing. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2012. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 32-33). / Abstracts also in Chinese. / Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 2 --- Literature Review --- p.4 / Chapter 2.1 --- Literature Review on Hong Kong Fiscal Policy --- p.5 / Chapter 2.2 --- Literature Review on the SVAR Model of Fiscal Policy --- p.5 / Chapter 3 --- Identification of the Structural VAR Model / Chapter 3.1 --- Original Model / Chapter 3.1.1 --- Identification --- p.8 / Chapter 3.1.2 --- Data --- p.10 / Chapter 3.1.3 --- Estimation --- p.10 / Chapter 3.2 --- Modified Model / Chapter 3.2.1 --- Introduction of International Block --- p.11 / Chapter 3.2.2 --- Estimation --- p.13 / Chapter 3.2.3 --- Robustness Testing --- p.16 / Chapter 3.2.4 --- Crowding Out Effect --- p.17 / Chapter 4 --- Fiscal Effects by Policy Category / Chapter 4.1 --- Decomposition of Government Expenditure --- p.19 / Chapter 4.2 --- Estimation of Fiscal Impulse by Policy Category / Chapter 4.2.1 --- Total Expenditure by Policy --- p.21 / Chapter 4.2.2 --- Recurrent Expenditure by Policy --- p.22 / Chapter 4.2.3 --- Non-Recurrent Expenditure by Policy --- p.25 / Chapter 5 --- Comparison of the Fiscal Effects between “Asian Dragons“ --- p.26 / Chapter 6 --- Concluding Remarks --- p.29 / References --- p.32 / Appendixes / Chapter Appendix A: --- Classification of Expenditure by Policy Area Group --- p.34 / Chapter Appendix B: --- Estimations and Figures --- p.35

by Ng Yiu Hong. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1997. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 77-80). / Chapter ONE --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Chapter TWO --- HONG KONG'S IMPORT PERFORMANCE --- p.5 / Chapter THREE --- REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE --- p.9 / The Elasticity Approach / Market Structure and Product Characteristics / Long-Run Profit Maximization / Hysteresis Models / Multinational Corporations and Intra-Firm Trade / Non-Tariff Barriers / Other Explanations / Chapter FOUR --- THE ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK --- p.19 / Chapter FIVE --- DATA AND ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS --- p.22 / Data / Econometric Analysis / Chapter SIX --- EMPIRICAL RESULTS --- p.33 / Chapter SEVEN --- CONCLUSION --- p.40 / TABLES --- p.43 / APPENDIX --- p.64 / BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.77

Lam Suet-man. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2001. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 111-117). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / ACKNOWOLEDGMENTS --- p.iii / LIST OF TABLES --- p.iv / LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS --- p.vi / CHAPTER / Chapter ONE --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Chapter TWO --- REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE --- p.6 / Parametric Models / Nonparametric Estimation Techniques / Chapter THREE --- METHODOLOGY --- p.21 / Parametric Models / Nonparametric Models / Chapter FOUR --- DATA DESCRIPTION --- p.33 / Chapter FIVE --- EMPIRICAL FINDINGS --- p.39 / Estimation Results / Evaluation of Model Performance / Out-of-sample Forecast Evaluation / Chapter SIX --- CONCLUSION --- p.58 / TABLES --- p.62 / ILLUSTRATIONS --- p.97 / APPENDIX --- p.107 / BIBOGRAPHY --- p.111