In the first chapter of my thesis, titled “Interventions in Credit Markets and Effects on Economic Activity: Evidence from Brazil,” I investigate the impact of the Brazilian government policy implemented in March 2012, which aimed at increasing credit supply through public banks. Using bank branch level data, I find that the policy successfully increased overall credit supply, as increased lending of public banks did not significantly offset private lending. On the other hand, there is no evidence of significant client-switching between private and public banks. However, the effects of the policy on economic activity were limited and even negligible. I conduct a series of robustness checks to further explore this puzzling result. I find evidence suggesting that increased lending led to significant increases in deposits, indicating that borrowers leveraged easily accessible credit to take loans and save funds for future use. In the second chapter, titled “Television Introduction and Agricultural Production,” I investigate how improved information affected agricultural activity in the U.S. Specifically, I argue that the introduction of television brings more comprehensible weather forecast information to farmers, improving their decision making process. Using data about television entry and county level farming production in a difference-in-differences methodology, I estimate economically significant effect of television introduction on crop yields.

This dissertation is motivated by the study of economic development and inequality within and across nations. Spanning topics in labor and public economics, this collection of papers speaks to two overarching themes: (i) how the distribution of power affects economic outcomes, and (ii) how governments can mobilize resources and spend them effectively. In Chapter 1, I study how the allocation of ownership and control rights within firms affect responses to economic shocks. To shed light on this issue, I study the heterogeneous effects of a pro-competitive reform on cooperative manufacturing firms and their non-cooperative counterparts in India. The reform removed firm-size restrictions on the production of “reserved” items, increasing competition for incumbents in “de-reserved” product markets. Using a difference-in-differences approach, I find that supplier cooperatives (SCs), owned and controlled by producer-members who supply material inputs, are resilient to the shock in terms of total revenue and move away from the production of de-reserved items. SCs increase their share of income spent on materials relative to similarly sized non-cooperatives in the same industry and location, with some evidence of downward adjustments in labor spending. These cooperatives are able to withstand competitive pressure from entrants while broadly catering to the interests of their membership. On the other hand, worker cooperatives (WCs), owned and controlled by worker-members employed at the firm, face a sharp decline in revenue due to de-reservation, unlike their non-cooperative counterparts. A potential channel behind these results is that WCs are less likely to respond by picking up items that are not directly affected by the reform. Spending on labor does not fall as much as revenue for WCs, which is in line with the immediate interests of membership, but adjustments to labor inputs vary sigificantly across employment categories. In the following chapter, my co-author, Utkarsh Kumar, and I study the equilibrium effects of subsidizing public services in the presence of vertically differentiated public and private suppliers. We evaluate one of India’s largest welfare schemes, Janani Suraksha Yojana (JSY), which subsidized childbirth at public health institutions. JSY did not improve health outcomes despite a substantial increase in take-up of institutional care. We document three equilibrium responses that explain this policy failure. First, JSY led to a mismatch in patient risk across health facilities. High-risk mothers sorted out of the highest-quality care at private facilities and into lower-quality public facilities. Second, in response to congestion and deterioration of care at public hospitals, only mothers with high socio-economic status sorted out of congested public facilities into more expensive private facilities. Third, private hospitals increased prices without improvements in healthcare quality in a specific subset of states, further crowding out high-risk and poor mothers. These findings point to the need for complementary public policies in addition to JSY. In Chapter 3, I, along with my co-authors, Alexander Klemm and Li Liu, explore the increasingly prominent position of services in international trade and their potential to facilitate tax-driven reporting and reallocation of economic activity. Given their potential in countering this form of base erosion, withholding taxes (WHTs) on payments for services have featured extensively in ongoing reforms of the international tax architecture. The rationale behind WHTs is to preserve some taxation rights in the source country given their straightforward application, which is particularly important for low-income countries in the absence of more effective rules. We build a simple model of reporting decisions when firms have economic activities in one country and affiliates in others. We then test the predictions of this model using newly compiled data on treaty and non-treaty rates for 120+ countries over 2009-2021. Our findings indicate that while there is no significant relationship between WHTs and services trade in general, these taxes do have a strong negative impact on services imports from known low-tax jurisdictions, when base erosion is a particular concern.

This dissertation is part of a growing body of research studying the implications of micro heterogeneity - differences between different types of households and workers - for macro economic policy. By incorporating heterogeneity into monetary and fiscal policy frameworks, I am able to study both the distributional consequences of policy and uncover ways in which differences between households change policy transmission mechanisms. In the first chapter, I show that growing differences across the income distribution in workers' substitutability with capital alters the strength of a key monetary policy transmission mechanism. In the second chapter, I highlight and measure a new trade-off between redistribution policies and long-run investment stemming from differences in households' propensity to save out of permanent income. In the third chapter, joint with Jennifer La'O, we show that when the degree of labor income inequality changes over the business cycle, and fiscal policy is unable to respond to these changes, optimal monetary policy should take this inequality into account. Chapter 1 examines how heterogeneity in worker substitutability with capital affects the labor income channel of monetary policy. Empirically, I show that workers performing routine tasks see smaller labor income gains than other workers following a monetary expansion and have higher marginal propensities to consume (MPC). I show that this relationship dampens the role that the labor market plays in monetary policy transmission. I embed capital-task complementarity in a medium-scale HANK model calibrated to match the respective capital-labor elasticities and labor shares of routine and non-routine workers. This worker heterogeneity reduces the size of the labor income channel 25 percent. Chapter 2 studies the trade-offs associated with income redistribution in an overlapping generations model in which savings rates increase with permanent income. By transferring resources from high savers to low savers, redistribution lowers aggregate savings, and depresses investment. I derive sufficient conditions under which this savings behavior generates a welfare trade-off between permanent income redistribution and capital accumulation in the short and long run. I quantify the size of this trade-off in two ways. First, I derive a sufficient statistic formula for the impact of this channel on welfare, and estimate the formula using U.S. household panel data. When redistribution is done with a labor income tax, the welfare costs associated with my channel are around 1/3 the size of those associated with labor supply distortions. Second, I solve a quantitative overlapping generations model with un-insurable idiosyncratic earnings risk in which savings rates increase with permanent income calibrated to the U.S. in 2019. In this setting, I find that around 17 percent of the trade-off between labor income redistribution and average consumption can be attributed to my channel. In Chapter 3, joint with Jennifer La'O, we study optimalmonetary policy in a dynamic, general equilibrium economy with heterogeneous agents. All heterogeneity is ex-ante: workers differ in type-specific, state-contingent labor productivity, yet markets are complete. The fiscal authority has access to a uniform, state-contingent lump-sum tax (or transfer), but linear taxes are restricted to be non-state contingent. We derive sufficient conditions under which implementing flexible-price allocations is optimal. We show that such allocations are not optimal when the relative labor income distribution varies with the business cycle; in such cases, optimal monetary policy implements a state-contingent mark-up that co-moves positively with a sufficient statistic for labor income inequality.

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Agricultural Economics / Allen M. Featherstone / Bryan W. Schurle / The reliability of nine software packages using the maximum likelihood estimator for the logistic regression model were examined using generated benchmark datasets and models. Software packages tested included: SAS (Procs Logistic, Catmod, Genmod, Surveylogistic, Glimmix, and Qlim), Limdep (Logit, Blogit), Stata (Logit, GLM, Binreg), Matlab, Shazam, R, Minitab, Eviews, and SPSS for all available algorithms, none of which have been previously tested. This study expands on the existing literature in this area by examination of Minitab 15 and SPSS 17. The findings indicate that Matlab, R, Eviews, Minitab, Limdep (BFGS), and SPSS provided consistently reliable results for both parameter and standard error estimates across the benchmark datasets. While some packages performed admirably, shortcomings did exist. SAS maximum log-likelihood estimators do not always converge to the optimal solution and stop prematurely depending on starting values, by issuing a ``flat" error message. This drawback can be dealt with by rerunning the maximum log-likelihood estimator, using a closer starting point, to see if the convergence criteria are actually satisfied. Although Stata-Binreg provides reliable parameter estimates, there is no way to obtain standard error estimates in Stata-Binreg as of yet. Limdep performs relatively well, but did not converge due to a weakness of the algorithm. The results show that solely trusting the default settings of statistical software packages may lead to non-optimal, biased or erroneous results, which may impact the quality of empirical results obtained by applied economists. Reliability tests indicate severe weaknesses in SAS Procs Glimmix and Genmod. Some software packages fail reliability tests under certain conditions. The finding indicates the need to use multiple software packages to solve econometric models.

Direct response advertising in the financial services industry in South Africa has become one of the most important tactics companies utilise to build and maintain market share. Ensuring that these advertising campaigns yield optimal return on investment numbers is the responsibility of marketing departments and their partners in the marketing and sales processes, such as the creative and media agencies, the distribution force, as well as the client service area that supports the client value proposition. The marketing executive therefore is accountable for the planning, budgeting and execution of direct response campaigns, which need to deliver sufficient results to support the company’s overall business objectives. The challenge all marketers face is the lack of a proven structured and scientific methodology to facilitate this planning, budgeting and execution process. It has always been a general view in the marketing fraternity that it is extremely difficult if not impossible to combine creative output measures, which are subjective in nature, with cost, sales and profit measures, which are objective in nature. This study aims to create a structured approach to marketing strategising and planning, by creating a marketing metrics model that enables the marketing practitioner to budget according to output needed to achieve the overarching business objectives of sales, cost management and profit. This marketing metrics model therefore unpacks the business drivers in detail, but through a marketing effort lense, to link the various factors underlying successful marketing output, to the bigger business objectives. This is done by incorporating both objective (verifiable data, such as cost per sale) and subjective variables (qualitative factors, such as creative quality) into a single model, which enables the marketing practitioner to identify areas of underperformance, which can then be managed, tweaked or discontinued in order to optimise marketing return on investment. Although many marketing metrics models and variables exist, there is a gap in the combination of objective and subjective factors in a single model, such as the proposed model, which will give the marketer a single tool to plan, analyse and manage the output in relation to pre-determined performance benchmarks. / Business Management / DCOM (Business Management)

Emerging insurance markets, have limited access to financial instruments that they can use to create common hedge(s) to manage foreign exchange risk. This is the first empirical study to focus on the limitations when modelling foreign exchange rate transaction exposure in emerging insurance markets. This work is based on the cash flow methodology proposed by Martin and Mauer (2003, 2005) in reference to banks, and employed by Li et al. (2009) when assessing US insurance companies. Some econometric methodological innovations have been introduced to study the limitations of modelling foreign exchange rate transaction exposure in emerging insurance markets. An extensive literature review is followed by a quantitative investigation, to answer the following research questions. 1) Is the foreign exchange transaction exposure, as measured by a fundamental (economic) method of modelling the interplay of foreign exchange rates with other economic variables, significant, for all Egyptian insurance companies? 2) Is the foreign exchange transaction exposure, as measured by a technical (statistical) way of modelling the interplay of foreign exchange rates with other economic variables, significant for all Egyptian insurance companies? 3) Is the exchange transaction exposure for the Egyptian insurance industry, as a whole, significant? Although the foreign exchange rate transaction exposure for the Egyptian insurance industry, as a whole, is insignificant (question3), the percentage of Egyptian insurers affected by foreign exchange rate transaction exposure in US dollars, estimated at the individual firm level, was found to be 22% (question 1) and 35% (question2) respectively.

Thesis (MBA (Business Management))--University of Stellenbosch, 2009. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Tobin's q value is widely used by financial analysts as a performance indicator ratio. The market value of a firm over the replacement cost of fixed assets and inventory serves as an indication of whether value is created by investing internally in the firm, or whether value is destroyed by investing in negative net present value projects. Where Tobin's q is greater than one (q > 1), the market value of the firm is greater than what it would cost to replace fixed assets and inventory. Therefore value is created. Firms that have a Tobin's q value of less than one are advised to pay dividends rather than invest in negative net present value projects. Over 200 different methods exist of calculating Tobin's q. By increasing the complexity of the algorithm to determine q, very little is achieved to improve the measurement quality. A strong link exists between excess market returns, free cash flow spending announcements and Tobin's q value for the firm. Firms with a high Tobin's q value should ensure that good investment possibilities are pursued. The use of internal funds to fund new investment is viewed in a positive light by the market and above average returns are generated. Firms with a high Tobin's q value and high free cash flow show lower returns. These lower returns happen as a result of the market recognising the firm's failure to capitalise on favourable internal investment opportunities. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Tobin se q-waarde word wyd gebruik as prestasie aanwyser deur finansiele ontleders. Die markwaarde van 'n firma gedeel deur die vervangingskoste van vaste bates en voorraad, dien as 'n maatstaf om aan te dui of waarde geskep word deur intern in die firma te belê en of waarde vernietig word deur in projekte met 'n negatiewe netto teenswoordige waarde te belê. Waar Tobin se q-waarde groter is as een (q > 1) is die markwaarde van die firma groter as wat dit sal wees om die vaste bates en voorraad te vervang. Sodoende word waarde geskep. Firmas met 'n q-waarde van minder as een word aanbeveel om eeeder dividende uit te betaal as om die beskikbare fondse in projekte met 'n negatiewe netto teenswoordige waarde te investeer. Meer as 200 verskillende metodes bestaan om Tobin se q-waarde te bereken. Deur die kompleksiteit van die algoritme te vergroot om q te bereken, dra min by tot groter akkuraatheid van die meting. 'n Sterk verband bestaan tussen bo-gemiddelde markopbrengste, aankondigings oor die besteding van vrye kontantvloei en die Tobin q-waarde van die firma. Firmas met 'n hoë Tobin q-waarde moet verseker dat goeie investeringsgeleenthede aangegryp word. Die gebruik van interne fondse om nuwe investering te finansier word deur die mark in 'n positiewe lig beskou en bogemiddelde opbrengste word gelewer. Firmas met 'n hoë Tobin q-waarde en hoë vrye kontantvloei toon laer opbrengste. Hierdie laer opbrengste is as gevolg van die mark wat besef dat die firma nalaat om gunstige interne investeringsgeleenthede te gebruik.

Merit-based financial aid has long been utilized by college and university enrollment managers to attract the most academically qualified applicants for admission. Considerable research has been done to illustrate the impact of state-based merit aid programs and other scholarly pursuits have drawn attention to the consequences of merit aid on institutional investments in need-based aid. Less is known about the efficacy of merit aid to achieve college student enrollment objectives. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the relationship between merit aid values and the likelihood of undergraduate student enrollment yield on offers of admission. The primary research question to be answered was: What is the relationship between the amount of merit aid students receive from a college or university and their enrollment decisions? The sample comprised 2,770 students at three private higher education institutions in the United States. Binary logistic regression and a forward selection process were used to test a range of possible predictors (e.g., sex, race, ethnicity, in-state residency, distance from home, academic qualifications, merit aid awards, and information from the financial aid applications of those offered admission) to determine the relative strength of merit aid in the prediction of student enrollment yield on offers of admission. The amount of merit aid offered was positively related to the likelihood of a student to enroll, even when academic qualifications and other student characteristics were controlled.

published_or_final_version / Computer Science and Information Systems / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

published_or_final_version / Real Estate and Construction / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy