The Great East Japan earthquake and the resulting tsunami struck Japan east coast on March 11th 2011. All nuclear power plants on the east coast were automatically shut down, and several thermal plants were damaged: Japan was left with only 19% of its nuclear capacity available (i.e. 9 GW). The Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear power plant underwent major incidents, with a fusion of the nuclear core and radioactivity leakage, the most important nuclear accident since Chernobyl. During the summer 2011, the Japanese government undertook emergency measures to offset the expected 20% capacity shortage in Tokyo and Tohoku areas. On the supply side, capacity was recovered by restarting and restoring fossil-fuelled power generation, and importing power from neighboring areas. On the demand side, stringent demand restriction measures led to a summer peak demand 10 GW lower in the Tokyo area and 3.1 GW lower in the Tohoku area, compared to 2010. In early 2012, only 2 reactors were still in operation, after further nuclear shutdowns. Market-driven electricity conservation reforms and subsidy-driven supply capacity additions aim to avoid emergency measures in the summer 2012 similar to those of summer 2011, and offset the expected 9% power deficit in the country. For the longer term, Japan government has launched various initiatives to review the 2010 Basic Energy Plan, which envisaged a nuclear expansion. In this study, a model was developed to assess the economic and environmental impacts of three contrasted scenarios, reflecting different options for Japan’s electricity mix by 2050. The results show that a nuclear phase-out would induce additional costs of the order of €850bn to the power system over the period 2010-50, compared to the Basic Energy Plan, while also preventing Japan to reach its CO2 emissions’ reduction targets by 2050. A sensitivity analysis shows that a reduced renewables development would lower the cost of the power system, but put aside climate change mitigation and energy security of supply. On the other hand, a reduced electricity demand through energy efficiency measures would have a positive impact on both CO2 emissions and the security of supply. / <p>-</p> / -

Minerals are important natural resources and their development is a historically old, yet new, idea for creating economic prosperity in developing countries. Various researchers have evolved several arguments regarding the impact of mineral resources on development and growth, but they have yet to furnish a practical method of economic evaluation of mineral resources development. This thesis focuses on the economic impact of mineral resource development in a small developing country in the South Pacific Region, namely Fiji. Fiji has expectations and faces challenges in its natural resources development. The Namosi project, a large copper-gold mine development, has been proposed and is under consideration by the Fijian government, who is deliberating on whether mining resources should be developed as a means to add to its prosperity and economic growth or alternatively conserved from the standpoint of the environment and stability. In this study, four significant issues are analyzed viz.: 1) Whether the Namosi mine development project gives a positive net private return. 2) Whether the predicted amount of revenue flowing to the Fijian government from the Namosi mine development exceeds the estimated external cost (in this case, environmental cost) from its development. 3) The impacts of the project on various levels of the Fijian economy, and whether the mine development in Fiji results in an enclave industry; and whether mining has strong or weak backward and forward production linkages with the rest of the Fijian economy. 4) Whether “Dutch disease” will ensue from mining development in Fiji and its level of severity. Regarding issue 1) above, Private Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) is conducted by applying the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method to evaluate the Namosi mining project based on financial projections. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis is conducted in order to allow for possible variations in copper and gold prices. This analysis indicates that given the anticipated metal prices, private returns from this mining development are likely to be positive. Indeed, the current high metal prices would lead to high private returns. Regarding issue 2) above, Social Cost-Benefit Analyses are attempted. Under the given circumstances, the results show that the benefits of the mine project, as a whole for its 29-year life, substantially outweigh the environmental costs of the project to Fiji. However, due to a lack of available data on the economic magnitude of environmental spillovers, only estimates of environmental costs of the Namosi mining development could be made. Regarding issue 3) above, Input-Output model analysis is performed. Fiji’s total output (without production from the Namosi mine) is found to be F$5,529.917 million. It is estimated that the Namosi project will increase the output of Fiji directly by F$465.574 million (which includes the production inducement effect) and will result in an increase of F$543.788 million in overall Fijian output (GDP). This increase will also be followed by an increased output of about F$10-30 million in related industries, such as in the commerce, transport, and insurance sectors. Based on this Input-Output analysis, it is found that Fiji’s mining sector is an export-oriented enclave industry and that the mining industry itself has very little influence on economic activity in other sectors of the economy. Regarding issue 4) above, the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model analysis is applied. Evidence of the likely occurrence of Dutch disease can be detected from output indicators of each industry, consumer prices and exports. Examples of Dutch disease are as follows: a decrease in output of agricultural industries and in export-oriented domestic industries; an increase in consumer prices (inflation); a decrease of exports both in exportable agricultural products and in manufactured products oriented to exports. However, several macro-variables improve, such as employees’ income, trade (exports and imports), tax revenue, tariff revenue, VAT revenue, government account (savings and expenditure) and GDP etc. These results suggest that there could be a major increase in national welfare. Thus, from an economics point of view, it has been found (by comparing gains in Fijian government revenue with potential Fijian environmental costs) that it is very likely that development of the Namosi mine will result in a net social gain to Fiji. These results are based on the application of principles of social cost-benefit analysis and indicate that a Kaldor-Hicks improvement (a potential Pareto improvement) is likely for Fiji as a result of the mining development. This means that from the predicted net revenue gains of the Fijian government from mining, those who suffer environmental losses would be compensated and the government would still have some extra revenue left over. An actual Paretian improvement is also possible.