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Implied probability distributions : estimation, testing and applicationsGiamouridis, Daniel January 2001 (has links)
A relatively large number of authors have proposed alternative techniques for the estimation of implied risk-neutral densities. As a general rule, an assumption for a theoretical equilibrium option pricing model is made and with the use of cross-sections of observed options prices point estimates of the risk-neutral probability densities are obtained. The present study is primarily concerned with the estimation of implied riskneutral densities by means of a semi-parametric Edgeworth Series Expansion probability model as an alternative to the widely criticized log-normal parameterization of the Black, Scholes and Merton model. Despite the relatively early introduction of this type of models in academic literature in the early '80s, it was not until the mid '90s that people started showing interest in their applications. Moreover, no studies by means of the Edgeworth Series Expansion probability model have so far been conducted with American style options. To this end, the present work initially develops the general theoretical framework and the numerical algorithm for the estimation of implied risk-neutral densities of the Edgeworth Series Expansion type from options prices. The technique is applicable to European options written on a generalized asset that pays dividends in continuous time or American futures options. The empirical part of the study considers data for the Oil and the Interest rates markets. The first task in the empirical investigation is to address general concerns with regard to the validity of an implied risk-neutral density estimation technique and its ability to stimulate meaningful discussion. To this end, the consistency of the Edgeworth Series Expansion type implied densities with the data is checked. This consistency is viewed in a broader sense: internal consistency - adequate fit to observed data - and economic rationale of the respective densities. An analysis is, therefore, performed to examine the properties of the implied densities in the presence of large changes in economic conditions. More specifically, the ability of the implied Edgeworth Series Expansion type implied densities to capture speculation over future eventualities and their capacity to immediately reflect changes in the market sentiment are examined. Motivated by existing concerns in the literature that the differences between the estimates from an alternative parameterization and the log-normal Black-Scholes-Merton parameterization may be apparent - better fit to observed data - but not significant.
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The effectiveness of audit committees : an analysis of governance mechanisms as surrogates for effectivenessDafinone, Daphne January 2001 (has links)
Current recommendations in the UK identify the audit committee as a key component of effective corporate governance. These recommendations emphasise the importance of structure and processes in an effective audit committee. It is therefore important to consider if these structures and processes are effective in promoting corporate accountability and control. This thesis therefore considers the extent to which the composition and structure of the audit committee is associated with the ability of the audit committee to fulfil its roles and objectives effectively in UK listed companies. It is reasonable to assume that an audit committee may be considered effective where it achieves its stated roles. The audit committee is not required to report to the shareholders within the financial statements on the extent to which they have achieved their roles. Thus, actual audit committee effectiveness cannot be externally observed. It is possible to measure audit committee effectiveness indirectly if it is considered that the absence of financial reporting problems indicates an audit committee has been effective in achieving their financial reporting oversight role. I.e. the extent to which the audit committees discharge their functional roles could be used as a surrogate for an external indication of audit committee effectiveness. This thesis therefore considers if the key governance mechanisms thought to impinge on audit committee effectiveness are present in companies in which the audit committee is considered to have failed in their financial reporting oversight role. The key governance mechanisms examined were: • The presence of the joint role of the CEO and the chairman; • Board Balance; • Existence of an audit committee; • Independence of the audit committee; • No. of audit committee members; • Existence of charter/terms of reference; • No. of meetings held by the audit committee per year; • Evidence of Interaction with / existence of Internal audit; • Financial literacy of members; • Technical competency of members; • Additional directorships of members. The results, based on comparing the above governance mechanisms in companies with no financial reporting problems ("CNFRP") to companies that have financial reporting problems (CFRP), indicate that "CNFRP's" have audit committees with significantly higher percentages of financially literate and technically competent members. This thesis provides insight into the effectiveness of governance mechanisms in UK audit committees during the period 1995-1999. This thesis contributes by updating our understanding of the factors that influence the effectiveness of the audit committee. It highlights that current recommendations in the United Kingdom, with their focus on audit committee composition and structure, should also consider the competency of audit committee members and determine a benchmark by which competency may be measured.
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Efficiency and competition in China's banking sectorFu, Xiaoqing January 2004 (has links)
China's banking sector has undergone remarkable changes during the last two decades, and banks in China today face more competitive pressure than ever before. The objective of this thesis is to investigate the efficiency and competition of the major Chinese banks over the period 1985-2002. After reviewing the evolution of the banking sector over the past half-century, the thesis addresses an important aspect of competition: X-efficiency and its potential correlates. X-efficiency is found to be as low as 40%-50% on average, suggesting that it is an important issue which should receive more attention from researchers, bank regulators and managers. State-owned banks are found to be less X-efficient than joint-stock banks, confirming the need for a shift in favour of shareholder owned banks. X-efficiency is also found to be more pronounced in the first stage of banking reform, implying that further interest rate liberalisation is necessary to help bank managers to be better able to control their costs. Tests for the presence of economies of scale and scope follow. The evidence is mixed but suggests that banks' cost structures may improve if the law prohibiting universal banking is relaxed. Finally, both the market-power and efficient-structure hypotheses are examined using a random effects panel data model. Some evidence is found to support the relevant market-power hypothesis and the X-efficiency version of the efficient-structure hypothesis for banks in the first and second reform stages, respectively, suggesting that the government's gradual approach to reform has improved the competitive structure of the banking sector. However, policy should be directed at enabling the more efficient banks to gain larger market shares. For example, the expansion of the joint-stock banks should be encouraged. There is little evidence of a 'quiet life' for the big four (state-owned) banks. However, while interest rate liberalisation should improve bank efficiency, policy makers must be aware of possible negative effects such as excessive market power, 'quiet life' effects, and other anti-competitive behaviour.
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Applications of robust optimal control to decision making in the presence of uncertaintyWeston, Stephen Peter January 2005 (has links)
This thesis is concerned with robustness of decision making in financial economics. Feedback control models developed in engineering are applied to three separate though linked problems in order to examine the role and impact of robustness in the creation and application of decision rules. Three problems are examined using robust optimal control techniques to evaluate the impact of robustness and stability in financial economic models. The first problem examines the use of linear models of robust optimal control in the pricing of castastrophe based derivatives and finds its relative performance to be superior to the popular jump diffusion and stochastic volatility models in the pricing of these emerging instruments. The novelty of the approach arises from the examination of the impact of robustness and stability of the pricing solution. The second problem involves robustness and stability of hedging. An alternative method of creating hedging rules is developed. The method is based on robust control Lyapunov functions that are simple, robust and stable in operation, yet in practice are not so conservative that they eliminate all trading gains. The third problem involves the development of robust control policies for managing risk, using non-linear robust optimal control techniques to provide clear evidence of superior performance of robust models when compared with existing VAR and EVT approaches to risk management. The novelty in the approach arises from the development of a simple and powerful risk management metric.
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Value creation through investments in Web-based systems within not-for-profit organisations : the case of two UK museumsChanopoulou, Magdalini January 2008 (has links)
A large number of not for profit organisations use Web technologies for community building, to improve services offered to their public or to generate income. However, the Internet is not a universal panacea and between the hype and counter-hype on the benefits of Web technologies, it is clear there are limits. Some third sector organisations are failing to make the most ofWeb technologies. Thus, it is important to develop a clear understanding of the process of deriving value from those technologies within a not-forprofit environment. This thesis aims at' understanding the way organisational value can be derived from investments in Web technologies within the museum context. Two in-depth case studies of Web projects' implementation processes and their financial, as well as non financial outcomes within two UK museums are presented. The data presented in this thesis was collected through a variety of methods including semi-structured interviews, observation, document review and an evaluation of the two websites. A theoretical approach that takes into account orga~isational and cultural issues embedded in Web-based systems was used in order to uhderstand better the process of acquiring value from the Web activities of the two museums. Thus, a synthesised conceptual framework based on the 'Mangle of Practice' and the 'Limits to Value' model was used for data collection. While the theoretical framework equipped the researcher with a sound basis upon which data collection was conducted, the framework did not offer much assistance in the task of data analysis. For this purpose, techniques were adapted from grounded theory. The two case studies show that although limited resources and the challenges of dealing with the digital content are very important issues for museums, Web systems planning aligned to the museum strategy and assigning the responsibility for the monitoring of Web related initiatives to a senior manager with a broad view of the organisation, as well as the power to initiate changes can improve the value obtained from those initiatives.
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Corporate governance challenges accompanying the privatisation of public education in QatarAlthani, Aisha Faleh January 2010 (has links)
Research on corporate governance in different institutional and national contexts is important because of the peculiarity of differing institutional environments, and the extent to which governance models are transferred or copied from one environment to another. Thus, research in each area enriches our understanding of corporate governance in general. Despite the fact that governments globally have placed privatisation at the top of the policy agenda in recent years, there are some sectors that have experienced very little or limited privatisation, for example education. The purpose of this thesis is to give a critical account of the introduction and development of the privatised education system in Qatar following consultancy advice from RAND1 in 2001 and to explore the model of corporate governance used for that delivery. In presenting and reviewing, these developments in Qatar, this thesis will serve three purposes: 1) To challenge some findings of prior research; 2) To suggest a corporate governance mix for this case that encompasses a broader view of governance than has been considered in prior research; and 3) To identify gaps in past research that represent promising opportunities for future study. The guiding question raised in this thesis is, ―what are the roles and challenges of corporate governance structures (mechanisms, approaches), in contributing to the development and establishment of Qatar‘s unique privatised education system?‖ The researcher chose this question because of the relative neglect of corporate governance aspects in this instance. This research revealed that corporate governance aspects came as an afterthought to decision makers in Qatar. As an informed observer and participant, being a member of the Supreme Education Council for Education, the researcher was in a position to access valuable and relevant information.
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Patterns of brand and store choiceLamb, Timothy Jerome January 1989 (has links)
The sublects of brand choice and store choice have been widely studied, but these two aspects of consumer behaviour have tended to be treated in isolation from each other. This thesis therefore provides a detailed examination of the way in which brand choice and store choice patterns compare and interact. The results are based on AGB consumer panel data, and relate to three frequently-bought grocery products. Despite the multiplicity of factors believed to influence brand and store choice, at the aggregate level many highly regular patterns (concerning for instance the rate of purchase at a store, or the extent to which a brand's buyers also buy another brand) are found in each context. These various patterns are shown to be predictable by the Dirichlet, a stochastic model of buying behaviour, using only market share as brand-specific or store-specific input. Importantly, the Dirichlet is shown to apply not only to the "whole-market" contexts of brand choice and store choice (as is known from previous research), but to the "submarket" contexts of within-store brand choice and within-brand store choice. This indicates that, although the numerical values may differ, at a rather more fundamental level brand choice patterns are the same within different stores, and store choice patterns are the same for different brands. It also means that the practical utility of the Dirichiet - generating theoretical norms to help interpret the observed data - has been extended, providing retailers and manufacturers with a more detailed and flexible market analysis tool. A wide range of new findings are reported regarding the relationship between brand and store loyalty. For instance, it is found (via a new methodology to take account of the crucial influence of market share) that the levels of brand loyalty and store loyalty are quite similar in degree, although the latter does tend to exceed the former - a result which holds important implications for consumers' reactions to a brand delisting or stock-out. It is also found on a number of measures that the overall level of within-store brand loyalty varies little from store to store, and that consumers exhibit marked brand loyalty across stores (i.e. they show no tendency to switch brands when switching stores). In all these cases, the value of structuring the (often complex) observed patterns via the Dirichlet is amply demonstrated.
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Consumers' perceptions of the competitive tiers in six grocery marketsde Chernatony, Leslie January 1987 (has links)
By the early 1980's the pressures of increased retailer dominance resulted in some manufacturers reducing brand investment. Concurrently own label investment increased, amid speculation about a blurring between brands and own labels. Generics were launched in 1977, but showed evidence of retailer branding. Consequently this research was undertaken to - assess how consumers perceive the competitive structure of 6 packaged grocery markets and - identify how consumers' perceptions of market structure are influenced by marketing activity (external factors) and consumer characteristics (internal factors). Within a consumer information processing paradigm, hypotheses were advanced. Repertory grids identified the attributes consumers use to evaluate competing tiers and the numerous attributes were reduced by examining the correlations between attributes, in conjunction with principal component analysis. These attributes formed attribute-brand batteries which were used, with colour photographs of the competing items, in a postal survey of householders to measure respondents' perceptions. A 48.5% response was acheived (1,065 returns) and using cluster analysis (single link algorithm) the compositions of the hierarchical clustering schemas were investigated. Consumers' perceptions only matched marketers' in the washing up liquid sector (brands vs own labels vs generics) and at the 2 tier level, all 6 product fields were perceived as brands versus retailer labels (own labels plus generics). These perceptions are thought to be due to the way retailers branded their generics. None of the external or internal factors affected consumers' perceptions, possibly due to the superficial information search resulting from the low involvement nature of the products. To avoid consumers predominantly switching from own labels to generics, future retailers marketing generics should not brand their generics. Manufacturers should invest in their brands through advertising and product development and should refrain from launching value brands. Grocery brand advertising is unlikely to be effective if it portrays the potential social risks associated with own labels.
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Construction insurance in the Arab Gulf area : an analysis of cover and contractsSweis, Rajai K. January 1988 (has links)
Important problems have been frequently encountered in connection with the insurance covers of projects in the Arab Gulf Area. An attempt to investigate such problems and recommend solutions thereto is given in this thesis. The investigation started by a study of the economic and the legal background, the legal liabilities of the parties to the construction project and the insurance market background and practices in the area. Analysis of the insurance requirement contract conditions forms used in the ambiguities, shortfalls etc. therein, lack of insurance awareness, resulted ance covers asked for and led to most clauses in the main area, revealed many which, in addition to in inadequate insurproblems encountered. Investigation of 453 losses showed that in many claims, inadequate covers asked for and obtained resulted in amounts claimed being either much reduced or wholly repudiated. Delays in settlements following disputes were therefore frequent. In some cases significant losses occurred, seriously affecting contractors with limited means, as the losses were totally or partially not covered under the CAR policies they asked for. Analysis of 1573 CAR/EAR policies showed the present low adequacy of cover. A system adopted in some cases, for checking CAR policies, improved their protection level, to the benefit of contractors, principals and insurers. To assist engineersf accountants etc., who are not insurance experts but deal with CAR policies, an index has been formulated in the thesis to measure adequacy of cover thereunder. A limited random sample survey among contractors, employers and consulting engineers showed that they think the index would be very useful and they welcomed the idea. The study confirmed that insurers are losing a sizable portion of the market left uninsured whether totally or partially. If properly arranged, these additional covers would widen insurers' market base and protect employers and contractors at relatively small cost. To remedy the position, recommendations are given in the thesis for a suggested new wording of the insurance requirement clauses in the contract conditions. The new wording seeks clarity and adequate protection for contractors and employers without departing from normal insurance practices. Other recommendations given suggested implementing some practical steps for improvement, including the use of the aforementioned index to initiate better understanding and increased demand for more adequate construction insurance covers.
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Governments, banks and global capital : the emergence of the global capital market and the politics of its regulationFilipovic, Miroslava January 1994 (has links)
This thesis analyses the global capital market, as one of the most dynamic aspects of the world economy. Once the dollars have begun to circulate outside the US, the expansion of transnational banking could not be curtailed. In addition to Eurocurrencies, other external financial markets were created, providing a global structure for the whole range of instruments to be traded. Economic and political changes in the late 1970s and in the beginning of the 1980s contributed to a shift in financial logic of both intermediaries and investors: from credit markets, they have increasingly turned to securities. Computer banking networks spanned the globe and provided almost an instantaneousa ccesst o every corner of the world of finance. So, in the mid-1980s, a truly global capital market came into being. Global financial structure sent critical signals on several occasions, regarding its over-all stability and soundness. Regulation of such global structure has attracted immense attention world-wide, as cross-border capital flows epitomize basic dilemmae about the concept of market economy: to what extent efficiency-gains justify loose market regulation, or, to put it the other way, to what degree the regulation could be tightened (i. e. market stability over-emphasized) to avoid hampering efficiency. These questions have indeed become political choices, provoking hot debates on both the national and the international level. The International Relations' approach to the global environment has proved to be a necessary enlargement of classical economic analysis today. In this particular case, the Issue-Based paradigm and regime theory were the most appropriate analytical frameworks to be applied. The hyper-issue of an orderly market economy v. a socialist command economy links the issues like international control, capital rules, liberalization and market integrity. A wider policy-system for global capital flows has emerged, featuring many and diverse actors. Although priorities vary to a great extent, it can be concluded that the multi-centric structure emphasizes the values of efficiency and freedom, while the intergovernmental world still highlights the maintenance of order and stability. Although regime theory has provided a valuable framework for this analysis, it still fails to reflect changing reality of modern financial structures. Instead of concentrating exclusively on governmental actors and the intergovernmental world, regime theory should also be applied on processes which are going on in the other, multicentric world. For the time being, an intergovernmental regime for global capital market is beyond the reach. Contrary to that, a transnational, nongovernmental regime for capital flows has begun to emerge.
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