This thesis examines certain key problems that the existence of forward rational expectations poses for policy analysis. The separate stages of estimating, testing and solving an econometric model are dealt with in turn. The main body of original work is in chapters four and six. In chapter four the problem of the existence of a continuum of solutions to a rational expectations model is addressed. We show that the existing practice of imposing terminal conditions is arbitrary and a procedure is advanced which in principle at least, can be used to estimate the solution jointly with the parameters. In chapter six analytical closed forms for the first order conditions of the likelihood function of the endogenous variables of a general rational expectations model are derived. We believe this is a major contribution to the literature because it opens the door to computationally efficient and cheap likelihood estimation, something not previously available. The first order conditions for a class of models with no predetermined variables has been programmed in Fortran IV and this has been used in chapter seven to estimate a model of financial asset demands. A likelihood ratio test of restrictions implied by rational expectations is comfortably passed so establishing empirical support for the hypothesis. Other original work in the thesis is contained in chapter five. Here we scrutinise the validity of a simulation technique advanced by Fair and Anderson which it is claimed solves a standard non rational model to yield an approximate rational expectations solution. The results of the chapter suggest the method is better in certain circumstances than in others and these circumstances pertain to the make up of the model in question. Finally, chapters two and three cast a critical eye over the policy analysis literature to which a minor contribution is made.

In the early 70's, Harrison and Stevens made a major contribution to the area of statistical forecasting. They adopted a Bayesian approach in conjunction with a fundamental model, first used by Kalman and called the Dynamic Linear Model (DLM). This thesis is concerned with the investigation of the properties of different Bayesian forecasting models and in particular of the Multi State Model (MSM). The latter is important in postulating that no single DLM can adequately describe a process with discontinuities and consequently the system defines a number of models characterising the most likely process states. A small number of parameters are shown to govern the behaviour of the MSM and the relationship between the choice of these parameters. and performance has been examined. It is shown that for a process exhibiting discontinuities, traditional forecasting criteria such as the mean square error are no longer appropriate. An alternative set of performance measures is proposed and used as the main language of understanding the variety of responses of the MSM to different types and sizes of discontinuities. The parameter representing the noise variance of the process is shown to be critical to the performance of both the MSIl and other single state Bayesian models. A number of on line variance estimation methods are proposed and tested on artificial and real data. The methods are shown to be robust and lead to improved performance not only of the MSM but the other Bayesian single state models which of course require a noise variance estimate. Finally, alternative formulations of the MSM are proposed, leading to significant reduction in the computational and storage requirements while at the same time improving the response of the MSM.

The concept of a "production function" as means to measuring efficiency began in 1928 with the seminal paper by Cobb and Douglas (1928). However, until the 1950s, production functions were largely used as a tool for studying the functional distribution of income between capital and labour. Farrell's argument (1957) provides an intellectual basis for redirecting attention from the production function specifically to the deviation from that function as a measure of efficiency. He developed a method so that we can measure efficiency in terms of distance to the "best DMU" on the frontier isoquant. Charnes, Cooper and Rhodes (1978) generalised Farrell's concept to multiple - input multiple - output situations and reformulated it using mathematical programming and thus derived an efficiency measurement known as Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). Therefore DEA is a linear programming based method for comparing Decision Making Units (DMUs) such as schools, hospitals, etc. In the method originally proposed by Charnes, Cooper and Rhodes (1978) the efficiency of a DMU is defined as a ratio of the weighted sum of outputs to the weighted sum of inputs. Thus in the original DEA approach the notion of time dimension has been ignored. This thesis proposes a IDEA based method for assessing the comparative efficiencies of DMUs operating production processes where input - output levels are inter - temporally dependent. One cause of inter - temporal dependence between input and output levels is stock input which influences output levels over many production periods. Such DMUs cannot be assessed by traditional or 'static' DEA. The method developed in the study overcomes the problem of inter - temporal input - output dependence by using input - output 'paths' mapped out by operating DMUs over time as the basis of assessing them. The aim of this thesis is, therefore, firstly, to address that traditional or "static" IDEA fails to capture the efficiency of DMUs with inter - temporal input - output dependence. Secondly the thesis develops an approach for measuring efficiency under inter - temporal input - output dependence by defining an inter - temporal Production Possibility Set (PPS). The method developed uses path of input - output levels associated with DMUs rather than input - output DMUs observed at one point in time as static IDEA does. Using this PPS, an assessment framework is developed which parallels that of static DEA. The thesis develops mathematical programming models which use input - output paths to measure efficiency, identify peers and target of performance of DMUs. The approach is illustrated using simulated and real data.

The present thesis is concerned with the relationship between price adjustments in response to changes in economic conditions and industrial market structure. Its point of departure consists of abandoning the time-honoured assumption that firms in industrial markets act as if they were price takers. Instead, attention is focused on the determinants of price adjustment in a more realistic industrial setting. Following the introductory analysis, a synthesis is proposed between the long-standing "administered prices" hypothesis, and the recent theories associated with the "new view" of Keynes. It is suggested that both approaches have common theoretical underpinnings which are themselves closely related to this thesis. The main body of analysis consists of a theoretical and an empirical investigation. In the theoretical section, two distinct aspects of the price adjustment decision are examined. The first concerns the comparative statics of adjustment and involves an analysis of the factors which determine the magnitude of price adjustments following changes in cost and demand. Moreover, the influence of market structure on the adjustment process is examined through its impact on the costs of search which are associated with the pricing decision. The second, and no less important aspect of the theoretical investigation concerns the dynamics of price adjustment. The object of this analysis is to assess the impact of market structure on the rate of price adjustment over time. The two hypotheses developed in the theoretical section are put to extensive empirical testing. The quantitative analysis involves mainly time-series and cross-section regressions, but other statistical techniques such as rank correlation and covariance tests are also employed. The first of these hypotheses is that price adjustments in response to short-run changes in demand could be attenuated relative to those occasioned by changes in marginal costs. The rationale for this asymmetry is based on the unequal impact of search costs. The empirical findings, whilst by no means conclusive, do not contradict this view. The second hypothesis suggests that a high degree of industrial concentration will be associated with high rates of price adjustment. This is because concentration facilitates the process of dynamic co-ordination amongst firms by reducing the costs of search. The empirical results come out strongly in favour of this hypothesis. The consequential implications regarding "administered prices" and the management of inflation are explored in the concluding chapter of this thesis.

The identification of factors that affect the performance of temporary multi disciplinary organisational teams has been a central aim of management research in the construction industry for over 40 years. This study contributes to what is known about the formation of a construction project organisation by identifying the contingent factors that affect contractor's gathering and analysis of price information from supply chain organisations during the ex ante processes to contract formation. The research methodology adopted a combined approach to data collection and analysis, and used a theoretical framework adapted from transaction economics to identify and explicate a model of contingency factors. The research method for data collection in the dominant quantitative first phase used a postal survey of 760 estimators working for contracting organisations in the United Kingdom in December 2003. The resultant data set was analysed using descriptive statistics. A multi variable general linear model and principal component analysis defined the parameters of a model that informed the second phase of data collection and analysis. This model was explicated using a multiple case study approach that gathered and analysed interview data from estimators working for organisations that had been purposively selected. The findings of this research identified the contingency factors that affect contractors', seeking, gathering, analysing and synthesising of supply chain price data, that can be grouped into four categories, which are; external environment, project environment, task environment and inter-organisational relations. The research also found that the existence and strength of effect of the contingency factors was differentiated by organisational size, and identified the factors that may be influenced by the intervention of the client procurement system, (or the organisation) in the ex ante process of supply chain organisation team development.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Wisconsin--Madison, 1983. / Typescript. Vita. eContent provider-neutral record in process. Description based on print version record. Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Wisconsin--Madison, 1972. / Typescript. Vita. eContent provider-neutral record in process. Description based on print version record. Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Wisconsin--Madison, 1983. / Typescript. Vita. eContent provider-neutral record in process. Description based on print version record. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 169-178).

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Wisconsin--Madison, 1983. / Typescript. Vita. eContent provider-neutral record in process. Description based on print version record. Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Wisconsin--Madison, 1982. / Typescript. Vita. eContent provider-neutral record in process. Description based on print version record. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 317-330).