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No description available.

Thesis (doctoral)--Halle-Wittenberg. / Includes bibliographical references.

This thesis focuses on analysis of the importance of electorate expectations for voter behavior in mid-term elections. We will modify the traditional Alesina-Rosenthal model to include electorate expectations. Using this new model, we will show that Obama's loss in the 2010 mid-term elections was caused by high electorate expectations which were created during the campaign for Presidency in 2008. With the help of our framework, we will demonstrate that electorate expectations played a crucial role in several historical mid-term elections.

Neste artigo utiliza-se a reforma constitucional brasileira de 1988 para investigar o impacto da extensão do direito de voto sobre a composição dos gastos públicos. Posterior ao processo de democratização a nova constituição estendeu o direito de voto aos analfabetos, o que representa uma mudança exógena na composição do eleitorado proporcionando uma clara estratégia de identificação. Uma vez que as taxas de analfabetismo variam consideravelmente entre os municípios, pode-se testar se políticas de gastos públicos favoráveis aos mais pobres sofreram elevações mais acentuadas nos municípios com maiores taxas iniciais de analfabetismo. Os resultados obtidos sugerem que o gasto com transferências se elevou mais acentuadamente naqueles municípios que exibiram maior percentual de eleitores analfabetos. Tudo o mais constante, uma mudança de um desvio padrão na taxa de analfabetismo está associada a uma elevação de 1,5 pontos percentuais na razão transferências/gasto total. / In the first paper, we explore Brazils 1988 Constitutional reform to investigate how a major change in the franchise affected the pattern and level of public spending. After redemocratization, the new Constitution extended the franchise to illiterate citizens previously not allowed to cast their votes. This exogenous change in the composition of the electorate is the base of our identification strategy. Since illiteracy rates varied substantially across municipalities, we are able to test whether pro-poor public expenditures increased more in municipalities with higher initial illiteracy rates. We do find that transfers rose more sharply in municipalities harboring more illiterate voters. The second paper studies the relationship between democracy and growth in a crosscountry analysis using data for years 1950-2005. Using econometric duration models to evaluate the impact of modernization hypothesis we find evidence supporting the exogenous modernization theory, in the sense that democracy has more duration in a richest and more educated country. But the duration of dictatorship isnt reduced by economic growth or rise of educational attainment. The last paper surveys the literature about the empirical comparison between directional and proximity models. We discuss the data collected process, estimation strategy and results, focusing in the post 1999 works. Theres no indication of superiority for neither of the theories, suggesting that the field is still active.

The American political system is currently not as meritocratic or functional as it should be. The reasons for this can be traced to problems in five categories of the political landscape: The System, The Elections, The Electorate, The Media, and The Money. These deficiencies cause less able leaders to be voted into office, and make it harder for politicians to generate positive results for their people. By addressing these problems, American democracy can exist in its healthiest form.

Neste artigo utiliza-se a reforma constitucional brasileira de 1988 para investigar o impacto da extensão do direito de voto sobre a composição dos gastos públicos. Posterior ao processo de democratização a nova constituição estendeu o direito de voto aos analfabetos, o que representa uma mudança exógena na composição do eleitorado proporcionando uma clara estratégia de identificação. Uma vez que as taxas de analfabetismo variam consideravelmente entre os municípios, pode-se testar se políticas de gastos públicos favoráveis aos mais pobres sofreram elevações mais acentuadas nos municípios com maiores taxas iniciais de analfabetismo. Os resultados obtidos sugerem que o gasto com transferências se elevou mais acentuadamente naqueles municípios que exibiram maior percentual de eleitores analfabetos. Tudo o mais constante, uma mudança de um desvio padrão na taxa de analfabetismo está associada a uma elevação de 1,5 pontos percentuais na razão transferências/gasto total. / In the first paper, we explore Brazils 1988 Constitutional reform to investigate how a major change in the franchise affected the pattern and level of public spending. After redemocratization, the new Constitution extended the franchise to illiterate citizens previously not allowed to cast their votes. This exogenous change in the composition of the electorate is the base of our identification strategy. Since illiteracy rates varied substantially across municipalities, we are able to test whether pro-poor public expenditures increased more in municipalities with higher initial illiteracy rates. We do find that transfers rose more sharply in municipalities harboring more illiterate voters. The second paper studies the relationship between democracy and growth in a crosscountry analysis using data for years 1950-2005. Using econometric duration models to evaluate the impact of modernization hypothesis we find evidence supporting the exogenous modernization theory, in the sense that democracy has more duration in a richest and more educated country. But the duration of dictatorship isnt reduced by economic growth or rise of educational attainment. The last paper surveys the literature about the empirical comparison between directional and proximity models. We discuss the data collected process, estimation strategy and results, focusing in the post 1999 works. Theres no indication of superiority for neither of the theories, suggesting that the field is still active.

Voter turnout is one of the most widely examined phenomena of interest in Political Science; however, researchers have paid less attention to the specific traits that may determine a candidate’s popularity among the electorate. The United States has a winner-takes-all political system, which indicates that in any given election, the stakes are too high. Consequently, every aspect of the candidate’s life becomes a relevant factor. However, if we could identify which traits are important to the electorate, then we could focus on the important aspects of the political process- the candidate’s stance on the issues. In this study, I focus on the effect that knowledge of a political candidate’s participation has on the candidate’s likability rating. Moreover, I study whether basketball or golf cause the greatest impact.

Staatsexamensarbeit - Universität, Marburg, 2005. / Includes bibliographical references and sources and register.

In the last few years new parties were rising in the post-communist bloc rapidly. Moreover, many of them were successful in the parliamentary elections. Party systems were slowly stabilizing and now they are threatened by new influences. Success of new parties is changing current politics in the central and eastern Europe. These parties are connected not only by the date of foundation but also by the way they act against current establishment. Despite their different strategies, level of success and their creation, their quick unexpected success is interesting. What is the structure of the electorate? This work is focused on identifying the structure of electorate of the new parties in central and eastern Europe. It is divided into two parts. First one, summarizes the theoretical concepts concerning the study of the new parties and clearly identifies what kind of new parties will be considered in this work. For this designation are used theories by Paul Lucardie, Allan Sikk a Krystyna Litton. Second part is quantitative research, based on advanced statistical methods. The research is trying to accurately identify what kind of social groups in the population are most likely to vote for the new parties. In this research is used OLS regression analysis on the global (state) level and for more accurate...