Os projetos hidrelétricos binacionais existentes têm exibido grandes resultados no que se refere à integração energética, principalmente pela forma com que os países membros vêm lidando com os investimentos de geração. Nesse sentido, com base em pesquisas documentais realizadas para a compreensão da evolução da regulação especialmente da integração de energia e potência dos empreendimentos e dos mercados elétricos dos países contratantes , assim como da regulação elétrica dos países envolvidos, o presente trabalho tem por objetivo apresentar alinhamentos regulatórios para o desenvolvimento de futuros projetos hidrelétricos binacionais. Parte das ferramentas apresentadas e dos arranjos previstos nos modelos é preexistente e, inclusive, alguns deles têm sido aplicados na regulação existente de projetos em desenvolvimento. Contudo, será apresentada uma forma articulada de utilização, mediante a criação de modelos que possam servir como alinhamentos gerais para melhor orientar os esforços para a realização de futuros projetos binacionais. Tudo isso sob a ótica da teoria de desenhos de mercado e da teoria do interesse privado, com o intuito de, consequentemente, facilitar a inclusão de empreendedores privados nesse tipo de iniciativa. / The existing binational hydroelectric projects have shown very good results when it comes to energy market integration, especially considering the way that countries deal with generation investments. Therefore, based on documentary research conducted to understand the evolution of the energy markets regulation particularly the way that the involved countries deal with the integration of the energy and power coming of the enterprises to their national energy markets , as well as the electrical regulation of such countries, this document intends to introduce regulatory alignments to guide the development of future binational hydroelectric projects. Some of the regulatory tools and arrangements presented as part of the models are pre-existing to this paper, and even some of them have been used on existing regulation of projects currently under development. However, an articulate way to use them will be presented, by creating models that can serve as general alignments to improve the accuracy of the efforts for the development of new binational hydroelectric projects. All this from the standpoint of the energy market designs theory and private interest theory, in order to facilitate the inclusion of private entrepreneurs in this kind of initiative.

Os projetos hidrelétricos binacionais existentes têm exibido grandes resultados no que se refere à integração energética, principalmente pela forma com que os países membros vêm lidando com os investimentos de geração. Nesse sentido, com base em pesquisas documentais realizadas para a compreensão da evolução da regulação especialmente da integração de energia e potência dos empreendimentos e dos mercados elétricos dos países contratantes , assim como da regulação elétrica dos países envolvidos, o presente trabalho tem por objetivo apresentar alinhamentos regulatórios para o desenvolvimento de futuros projetos hidrelétricos binacionais. Parte das ferramentas apresentadas e dos arranjos previstos nos modelos é preexistente e, inclusive, alguns deles têm sido aplicados na regulação existente de projetos em desenvolvimento. Contudo, será apresentada uma forma articulada de utilização, mediante a criação de modelos que possam servir como alinhamentos gerais para melhor orientar os esforços para a realização de futuros projetos binacionais. Tudo isso sob a ótica da teoria de desenhos de mercado e da teoria do interesse privado, com o intuito de, consequentemente, facilitar a inclusão de empreendedores privados nesse tipo de iniciativa. / The existing binational hydroelectric projects have shown very good results when it comes to energy market integration, especially considering the way that countries deal with generation investments. Therefore, based on documentary research conducted to understand the evolution of the energy markets regulation particularly the way that the involved countries deal with the integration of the energy and power coming of the enterprises to their national energy markets , as well as the electrical regulation of such countries, this document intends to introduce regulatory alignments to guide the development of future binational hydroelectric projects. Some of the regulatory tools and arrangements presented as part of the models are pre-existing to this paper, and even some of them have been used on existing regulation of projects currently under development. However, an articulate way to use them will be presented, by creating models that can serve as general alignments to improve the accuracy of the efforts for the development of new binational hydroelectric projects. All this from the standpoint of the energy market designs theory and private interest theory, in order to facilitate the inclusion of private entrepreneurs in this kind of initiative.

In a deregulated electricity market, offering the appropriate amount of electricity at the right time with the right bidding price is of paramount importance. The forecasting of electricity market clearing price (MCP) is a prediction of future electricity price based on given forecast of electricity demand, temperature, sunshine, fuel cost, precipitation and other related factors. Currently, there are many techniques available for short-term electricity MCP forecasting, but very little has been done in the area of mid-term electricity MCP forecasting. The mid-term electricity MCP forecasting focuses electricity MCP on a time frame from one month to six months. Developing mid-term electricity MCP forecasting is essential for mid-term planning and decision making, such as generation plant expansion and maintenance schedule, reallocation of resources, bilateral contracts and hedging strategies. Six mid-term electricity MCP forecasting models are proposed and compared in this thesis: 1) a single support vector machine (SVM) forecasting model, 2) a single least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) forecasting model, 3) a hybrid SVM and auto-regression moving average with external input (ARMAX) forecasting model, 4) a hybrid LSSVM and ARMAX forecasting model, 5) a multiple SVM forecasting model and 6) a multiple LSSVM forecasting model. PJM interconnection data are used to test the proposed models. Cross-validation technique was used to optimize the control parameters and the selection of training data of the six proposed mid-term electricity MCP forecasting models. Three evaluation techniques, mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and mean square root error (MSRE), are used to analysis the system forecasting accuracy. According to the experimental results, the multiple SVM forecasting model worked the best among all six proposed forecasting models. The proposed multiple SVM based mid-term electricity MCP forecasting model contains a data classification module and a price forecasting module. The data classification module will first pre-process the input data into corresponding price zones and then the forecasting module will forecast the electricity price in four parallel designed SVMs. This proposed model can best improve the forecasting accuracy on both peak prices and overall system compared with other 5 forecasting models proposed in this thesis.

The master thesis The Influence of Photovoltaic Power Plants Disconnection During Frequency Deviations introduce reader to the theory of frequency regulation in the electric power system. The theoretical part introduces regulation reserve that are used by transmission system operator to balance power imbalances. In the next part is made introduction to the system state classification and knowledge of European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity about unsolicited disconnection of photovoltaic plants. The theoretical part of the recommendations and simulations is followed by a part of the work in which the analysis of the implementation of the frequency boundary in which the photovoltaic power plants are operated in selected states of synchronously interconnected Europe. The master thesis continues to explain the origin of power imbalances by introducing a theory of electricity trading. Deterministic frequency deviations are one of the causes of the occurrence of frequent imbalances in the system and are discussed in the following chapter together with a proposal for a possible solution. In the last part of the master thesis are presented simulations that were made to determine the impact of the speed control regulator in the Czech Republic on unsolicited disconnection of photovoltaic power plants.