Yes / Expert knowledge elicitation lies at the core of judgmental forecasting—a domain that relies fully on the power of such knowledge and its integration into forecasting. Using experts in a demand forecasting framework, this work aims to compare the accuracy improvements and forecasting performances of three judgmental integration methods. To do this, a field study was conducted with 31 experts from four companies. The methods compared were the judgmental adjustment, the 50–50 combination, and the divide-and-conquer. Forecaster expertise, the credibility of system forecasts and the need to rectify system forecasts were also assessed, and mechanisms for performing this assessment were considered. When (a) a forecaster’s relative expertise was high, (b) the relative credibility of the system forecasts was low, and (c) the system forecasts had a strong need of correction, judgmental adjustment improved the accuracy relative to both the other integration methods and the system forecasts. Experts with higher levels of expertise showed higher adjustment frequencies. Our results suggest that judgmental adjustment promises to be valuable in the long term if adequate conditions of forecaster expertise and the credibility of system forecasts are met.

In recent years, there has been an enormous growth in the literature that has focussed upon assets, in other words emphasising the positive attributes of both people and communities; these include children and young people’s developmental assets, community asset mapping and public health, all of which have generated a wide range of literature. Although there has been some consideration of assets within a child health context, this is limited and no literature has previously documented the mapping of children’s assets at an individual level. It has long been recognised that wellbeing is an integral aspect of health. Children’s wellbeing has been the focus of much concern at both national and international levels; this has resulted in the publication of key documents by prominent organisations, as well as the undertaking of a range of research. Despite this, studies have not previously sought to map the assets underpinning children’s wellbeing – this research has addressed this deficit. This study was supported by a theoretical framework that was specifically developed to guide the study. An ethnographic approach and a photo elicitation method were drawn upon to facilitate the gaze through the lens of ‘Activities that I Enjoy’; this in turn enabled the mapping and emergence of assets that underpin children’s wellbeing. Two primary schools in the south-east of England were used to recruit twenty Year 5 children (aged 9-11 years of age). The participants, ten boys and ten girls, were given disposable cameras and asked to take photographs of the activities that they enjoyed. The children’s photographs were integral to subsequent individual semi-structured interviews that sought to gain insight into children’s wellbeing. ii A constant comparative analysis technique facilitated the mapping of assets that underpinned the children’s wellbeing; this process revealed one overall Stabilising Asset as well as eight internal and three external assets. Whilst some of the assets have been previously recognised, others have not; in particular, the study revealed ‘When I Have Got Nothing To Do: Resourcefulness’ as an internal asset that has not formerly been articulated. All of the assets are presented within the ‘I’m Good’: Children’s Asset Wheel [CAW], an original model that provides a new and important insight as well as being an integral component of the initial guiding theoretical framework. As its contribution to knowledge, the study offered a number of key insights including: The presentation of an innovative guiding theoretical framework that not only has the potential to inform future research, but also professionals in relation to the practicalities of asset mapping. Secondly, the study developed and documented a detailed original approach to asset mapping at an individual level; thirdly, the research facilitated the design of the CAW which encapsulates the assets underpinning children’s wellbeing. Appropriate dissemination strategies have been initiated, and will continue, in order to facilitate the study’s contribution to the existing body of knowledge.

Past tense verb production in children with specific language impairment and language-matched children with typical language was compared using language samples and a standardized probe (Rice/Wexler Test of Early Grammatical Impairment). Analyses revealed accuracy and error type differences between elicitation types and groups. Results have important clinical practice implications.

Regular (e.g., jumped) and irregular (e.g., fell) past tense verb acquisition in children with typical language development (TL) occurs between ages 3-5. In children with specific language impairment (SLI), acquisition of these forms is extended and errors in spontaneous conversation may even continue into adulthood. However, there is a lack of consensus as to whether probed or spontaneous language samples give a more accurate representation of a child’s linguistic skills. The first aim of this study was to determine if there were differences in regular and irregular past tense verb production accuracy between two Elicitation Methods: probed vs. spontaneous language sampling. The second aim was to determine if accuracy and error patterns differed between children with SLI and children with TL. The participants included 11 children with SLI (mean age: 5 years) and 20 children with TL (mean age: 3 years 6 months). Each participant received a battery of tests to determine language status. This battery included two elicitation methods for regular and irregular past tense: a probe and a spontaneous language sample. The Rice/Wexler Test of Early Grammatical Impairment probed past tense verb production using picture prompts and a standardized verbal routine. Additionally, a language sample was recorded in which participants told three thematically related stories provided spontaneous productions. The first two stories were read by the examiner first and the child was asked to retell it. The first story was presented in the present tense. The second story was presented in the past tense. The third story was made up by the child based on the pictures and the tense was free to vary. These stories provided the language sample that was then transcribed and coded for a statistical analysis of verb production. Within and between groups ANOVAs revealed statistically significant differences between the probe and spontaneous language samples, with the probe yielding higher accuracy for regular and irregular past tense verb production in both groups. There was no significant Group effect or Group by Elicitation Method interaction. Analysis of the types of errors produced revealed a statistically significant Group by Elicitation Method interaction. Post hoc analysis found for regular past tense verbs, children with SLI produced more stem-form errors than children with TL. For irregular past tense forms, children with SLI produced more stem form errors, while children with TL produce more overregularization errors. The observed pattern of errors is consistent with inclusionary criteria for SLI, the literature, and theoretical foundations. The results add to the literature about the accuracy of probe and spontaneous language sample elicitation methods.

近年來在運用雙界二分選擇法(double-bounded dichotomous choice elicitation method)來估計受訪者願付價格(willingness to pay)的研究中，不再僅局限於單一非市場財貨的探討。這類型的模型中雖然納入了相關性的考量，但並未考慮財貨的願付價格間可能存在明確的大小關係。再者，針對抗議性樣本，以往的作法多半是丟棄不用，然而這顯然不是理想的作法。本文中，我們將建構一個模型來同時探討這兩項議題。此外我們也利用「竹東及朴子地區心臟血管疾病長期追蹤研究」第五循環中「肥胖之願付價格」的資料來進行實證分析。結果顯示，居住於竹東、有工作、曾以特定活動控制體重的受訪者願意支付較高的金額來參加減肥療程。 / Recent studies on estimating WTP prices in terms of the double-bounded dichotomous choice elicitation method are no longer restricted to the situations that discuss only one non-market good. Although a couple of models have been proposed to take the correlations into consideration when multiple scenarios are presented to the respondents, none of them pay attention to the possibilities that the prices themselves might be inherently ordered. This is one of the issues that need to be addressed. Another is about the protest samples. A common but apparently problematic approach is simply ignoring them completely. In this study, we propose a model that is able to take care of both issues simultaneously. In addition, the model is used to estimate WTP values for data collected in CVDFACTS about two weight loss treatments. The results indicate that respondents residing in Chu-Dong County, employed, and ever tried any weight controlled programs are willing to pay a higher price for the new treatments.

Collective memory has recently become one of the most explored topics in the social sciences and has led to the emergence of a separate and independent subdiscipline called memory studies. The thesis investigates the awakening of collective memory in two borderlands of Central Europe: the former Sudetes region in the Czech Republic and the southern part of former East Prussia in Poland. The thesis provides an overview of the current theories about collective memory with a focus on the interactional and visual character of the studied phenomenon. In line with this, the thesis presents, discusses, and elaborates on research conducted in the two borderlands in 2016 and 2017. The aim of the research was to study the role and form of collective memory (shared remembrance) in ethnic, cultural, and historical borderlands. The contributions of the thesis are both methodological and theoretical. Firstly, the discussed research revealed that between particularly family-based communicative memory and official, institution-generated cultural memory, there is ritualised communicative memory, maintained through interactions among members of the borderland community (community of memory). Secondly, the thesis contributes to various studies within the interactionist paradigm and proves the usability of Goffman's...

The thesis is concerned with clients’ perspective towards large engineering consultancies. Thecore aim of this work is to understand what client evaluates when trying to define how engineering consultancies are different from each other. To understand this area, theories of marketing and branding in professional service industry will be analyzed. Further interviews with both clients and consultants were held and based on empirical findings and theoretical perspective, conclusions are drawn.