京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(理学) / 甲第22982号 / 理博第4659号 / 新制||理||1669(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院理学研究科数学・数理解析専攻 / (主査)教授 熊谷 隆, 教授 長谷川 真人, 小澤 登高 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Science / Kyoto University / DGAM

Many concrete problems, ranging from Portfolio selection to Water resource management, may be cast into a multiobjective programming framework. The simplistic way of superseding blindly conflictual goals by one objective function let no chance to the model but to churn out meaningless outcomes. Hence interest of discussing ways for tackling Multiobjective Programming Problems. More than this, in many real-life situations, uncertainty and imprecision are in the state of affairs. In this dissertation we discuss ways for solving Multiobjective Programming Problems with fixed and fuzzy coefficients. No preference, a priori, a posteriori, interactive and metaheuristic methods are discussed for the deterministic case. As far as the fuzzy case is concerned, two approaches based respectively on possibility measures and on Embedding Theorem for fuzzy numbers are described. A case study is also carried out for the sake of illustration. We end up with some concluding remarks along with lines for further development, in this field. / Operations Research / M. Sc. (Operations Research)

Many concrete problems, ranging from Portfolio selection to Water resource management, may be cast into a multiobjective programming framework. The simplistic way of superseding blindly conflictual goals by one objective function let no chance to the model but to churn out meaningless outcomes. Hence interest of discussing ways for tackling Multiobjective Programming Problems. More than this, in many real-life situations, uncertainty and imprecision are in the state of affairs. In this dissertation we discuss ways for solving Multiobjective Programming Problems with fixed and fuzzy coefficients. No preference, a priori, a posteriori, interactive and metaheuristic methods are discussed for the deterministic case. As far as the fuzzy case is concerned, two approaches based respectively on possibility measures and on Embedding Theorem for fuzzy numbers are described. A case study is also carried out for the sake of illustration. We end up with some concluding remarks along with lines for further development, in this field. / Operations Research / M. Sc. (Operations Research)

This work aims at combining the Chaos theory postulates and Artificial Neural Networks classification and predictive capability, in the field of financial time series prediction. Chaos theory, provides valuable qualitative and quantitative tools to decide on the predictability of a chaotic system. Quantitative measurements based on Chaos theory, are used, to decide a-priori whether a time series, or a portion of a time series is predictable, while Chaos theory based qualitative tools are used to provide further observations and analysis on the predictability, in cases where measurements provide negative answers. Phase space reconstruction is achieved by time delay embedding resulting in multiple embedded vectors. The cognitive approach suggested, is inspired by the capability of some chartists to predict the direction of an index by looking at the price time series. Thus, in this work, the calculation of the embedding dimension and the separation, in Takens‘ embedding theorem for phase space reconstruction, is not limited to False Nearest Neighbor, Differential Entropy or other specific method, rather, this work is interested in all embedding dimensions and separations that are regarded as different ways of looking at a time series by different chartists, based on their expectations. Prior to the prediction, the embedded vectors of the phase space are classified with Fuzzy-ART, then, for each class a back propagation Neural Network is trained to predict the last element of each vector, whereas all previous elements of a vector are used as features.

This thesis deals with a complex analysis and prediction of foreign exchange markets. It uses advanced artificial intelligence methods, namely neural networks and chaos theory. It introduces unconventional approaches and methods of each of these areas, compares them and uses on a real problem. The core of this thesis is a comparison of several prediction models based on completely different principles and underlying theories. The outcome is then a selection of the most appropriate prediction model called NAR + H. The model is evaluated according to several criteria, the pros and cons are discussed and approximate expected profitability and risk are calculated. All analytical, prediction and partial algorithms are implemented in Matlab development environment and form a unified library of all used functions and scripts. It also may be considered as a secondary main outcome of the thesis.

Multiobjective Stochastic Linear Programming is a relevant topic. As a matter of fact, many real life problems ranging from portfolio selection to water resource management may be cast into this framework. There are severe limitations in objectivity in this field due to the simultaneous presence of randomness and conflicting goals. In such a turbulent environment, the mainstay of rational choice does not hold and it is virtually impossible to provide a truly scientific foundation for an optimal decision. In this thesis, we resort to the bounded rationality and chance-constrained principles to define satisficing solutions for Multiobjective Stochastic Linear Programming problems. These solutions are then characterized for the cases of normal, exponential, chi-squared and gamma distributions. Ways for singling out such solutions are discussed and numerical examples provided for the sake of illustration. Extension to the case of fuzzy random coefficients is also carried out. / Decision Sciences

Multiobjective Stochastic Linear Programming is a relevant topic. As a matter of fact, many real life problems ranging from portfolio selection to water resource management may be cast into this framework. There are severe limitations in objectivity in this field due to the simultaneous presence of randomness and conflicting goals. In such a turbulent environment, the mainstay of rational choice does not hold and it is virtually impossible to provide a truly scientific foundation for an optimal decision. In this thesis, we resort to the bounded rationality and chance-constrained principles to define satisficing solutions for Multiobjective Stochastic Linear Programming problems. These solutions are then characterized for the cases of normal, exponential, chi-squared and gamma distributions. Ways for singling out such solutions are discussed and numerical examples provided for the sake of illustration. Extension to the case of fuzzy random coefficients is also carried out. / Decision Sciences