This paper adopts an modle with endogenous variable to investigates policy inertia hypothesis or unobserved variable hypothesis in Taiwan¡¦s interest-rate rule 1981- 2010. Empirical result suggests that both policy inertia and omitted variable hypothesis are important in monetary policy in Taiwan,which is consistent with that of Gerlach- Kristen (2004).

Understanding joint and causal relationships among multiple endogenous variables has been of much interest to researchers in the field of activity and travel behavior modeling. Structural equation models have been widely developed for modeling and analyzing the causal relationships among travel time, activity duration, car ownership, trip frequency and activity frequency. In the model, travel time and activity duration are treated as continuous variables, while car ownership, trip frequency and activity frequency as ordered discrete variables. However, many endogenous variables of interest in travel behavior are not continuous or ordered discrete but unordered discrete in nature, such as mode choice, destination choice, trip chaining pattern and time-of-day choice (it can be classified into a few categories such as AM peak, midday, PM peak and off-peak). A modeling methodology with involvement of unordered discrete variables is highly desired for better understanding the causal relationships among these variables. Under this background, the proposed dissertation study will be dedicated into seeking an appropriate modeling methodology which aids in identifying the causal relationships among activity and travel variables including unordered discrete variables. In this dissertation, the proposed modeling methodologies are applied for modeling the causal relationship between three pairs of endogenous variables: trip chaining pattern vs. mode choice, activity timing vs. duration and trip departure time vs.mode choice. The data used for modeling analysis is extracted from Swiss Travel Microcensus 2000. Such models provide us with rigorous criteria in selecting a reasonable application sequence of sub-models in the activity-based travel demand model system.

O objetivo desse trabalho é verificar a influência das características familiares no atraso escolar. O atraso escolar no Brasil, além de onerar os gastos do governo, representa baixo nível de capital humano acumulado nas crianças. Baixos níveis de capital humano acumulado representam indivíduos com habilidades mal desenvolvidas que atingem baixos níveis de produtividade dificultando o processo de desenvolvimento sustentável do país. O capital humano acumulado é resultado de um processo construtivo que depende do desenvolvimento do indivíduo no período anterior, portanto melhores desempenhos futuros são resultados de maior acúmulo de capital humano. A característica do processo sugere grande influência das características familiares. A família é o principal responsável por fornecer recursos durante os primeiros anos do processo de acúmulo de capital humano. O método utilizado para estimar o atraso escolar foi a quase verossimilhança em dois estágios, devido à natureza de contagem e à presença da variável endógena. O resultado obtido mostrou a influência da educação da mãe e do pai de forma a diminuir o atraso escolar e a diferença em magnitude em relação às estimações padrão. A variável renda, nesse método, apresentou impacto favorável ao atraso escolar. / The objective of this thesis is to verify the influence of family characteristics in schooling delay. The schooling delay in Brazil increases government?s spent and implies lower rate human capital accumulation on children. Lower rates of human capital accumulation means children will grow into less skilled workers, with low levels of productivity, which has a negative effect on development. The accumulation of human capital is a process that depends of the individual?s development throughout her life. The study considers family factors that have an evident influence in children development, reinforcing that the family is one of the main sources in the process of accumulative human capital. The variable used as proxy to human capital accumulation was schooling delay, which is a count variable and is clearly to endogeneity. The approach in this thesis is referred to as the two-stage quasi likelihood. Results obtained indicate that Parent?s education have a negative effect in the child?s being behind at school, while household income has a positive effect. Additionally, the difference in magnitude when compared with standard estimation methods is significant.

O objetivo desse trabalho é verificar a influência das características familiares no atraso escolar. O atraso escolar no Brasil, além de onerar os gastos do governo, representa baixo nível de capital humano acumulado nas crianças. Baixos níveis de capital humano acumulado representam indivíduos com habilidades mal desenvolvidas que atingem baixos níveis de produtividade dificultando o processo de desenvolvimento sustentável do país. O capital humano acumulado é resultado de um processo construtivo que depende do desenvolvimento do indivíduo no período anterior, portanto melhores desempenhos futuros são resultados de maior acúmulo de capital humano. A característica do processo sugere grande influência das características familiares. A família é o principal responsável por fornecer recursos durante os primeiros anos do processo de acúmulo de capital humano. O método utilizado para estimar o atraso escolar foi a quase verossimilhança em dois estágios, devido à natureza de contagem e à presença da variável endógena. O resultado obtido mostrou a influência da educação da mãe e do pai de forma a diminuir o atraso escolar e a diferença em magnitude em relação às estimações padrão. A variável renda, nesse método, apresentou impacto favorável ao atraso escolar. / The objective of this thesis is to verify the influence of family characteristics in schooling delay. The schooling delay in Brazil increases government?s spent and implies lower rate human capital accumulation on children. Lower rates of human capital accumulation means children will grow into less skilled workers, with low levels of productivity, which has a negative effect on development. The accumulation of human capital is a process that depends of the individual?s development throughout her life. The study considers family factors that have an evident influence in children development, reinforcing that the family is one of the main sources in the process of accumulative human capital. The variable used as proxy to human capital accumulation was schooling delay, which is a count variable and is clearly to endogeneity. The approach in this thesis is referred to as the two-stage quasi likelihood. Results obtained indicate that Parent?s education have a negative effect in the child?s being behind at school, while household income has a positive effect. Additionally, the difference in magnitude when compared with standard estimation methods is significant.