M.Sc. (Mining Engineering), Faculty of Engineering, University of the Witwatersrand, 1995

The inability to accurately estimate costs which are associated with software development is an increasing concern of the scientists and practitioners involved. Many factors influence the cost and many models have been offered to estimate the expenses for developing a software system of any size and type. Unfortunately, the problem remains the same. There is a significant need for further research in order to develop complete understanding in this area.This thesis examines the cost influential factors and reviews a number of existing cost estimation models. Then, a hypothetical method is shown for estimating cost, incorporating the PERT sizing technique, the Basic and Intermediate COCOMO models, and a blend of features from the Putnam's Resource Allocation model and the SLIM model. The implementation of this method is also included. / Department of Computer Science

Orientador: Antonio Padilha Feltrin / Banca: Sérgio Azevedo de Oliveira / Banca: Wadaed Uturbey Costa / Resumo: Para análises atualizadas de expansão do sistema elétrico de distribuição, as empresas buscam otimizar os investimentos direcionando-os da melhor forma possível para atender os critérios técnicos estabelecidos pelo órgão regulador envolvendo o menor risco e maior retorno financeiro. Atualmente, muitos estudos ainda são realizados analisando os investimentos em curto prazo, desconsiderando as variações futuras no mercado de energia e escolhendo o empreendimento com menor custo inicial. Este trabalho tem como objetivo desenvolver um modelo através da aplicação de metodologias técnicas e econômicas para encontrar a melhor opção de expansão do sistema elétrico de distribuição utilizando técnicas de engenharia econômica em longo prazo, considerando análise de sensibilidade e quantificação de risco através de probabilidades. Serão analisadas alternativas de expansão do sistema elétrico através de simulações técnicas verificando os critérios de disponibilidade, carregamento e queda de tensão no horizonte previsto. As alternativas viáveis serão analisadas economicamente considerando, além das técnicas de engenharia econômica, a sensibilidade do sistema elétrico para atendimento às novas demandas e variações do crescimento de mercado, bem como os riscos associados a cada alternativa utilizando fatores de probabilidade e custo de perdas técnicas obtidas através de simulações. Para ilustrar este modelo, foi realizado um estudo de caso em determinada região pertencente a uma concessionária de distribuição de energia do Sudeste do País. Será mostrado neste trabalho que, quando as análises são realizadas em longo prazo considerando diversas alternativas tecnicamente viáveis e as variáveis necessárias para análise econômica, o empreendimento mais viável a ser realizado poderá ser o que tiver o maior investimento. / Abstract: Current analysis on power distribution system expansion require companies to look after optimized investments by allocating them appropriately in order to meet the technical criteria set by the regulation agency considering the lowest risk and the highest financial result. Nowadays, many analyses are still performed taking into account short term investments thus not considering the future variances of the energy market, and selecting the lowest initial investment enterprise option. This work aims to develop a model with technical and economic methodologys to identify the best option for expanding the power distribution system by using long term driven economic engineering considering sensitivity analysis and probability risk assessment. Alternatives for the power distribution system will be analyzed through technical simulations that verify different criteria such as availability, system load and system tension fall in the comprised horizon. Feasible alternatives will be economically analyzed taking into consideration economic engineering techniques and furthermore analyzing the sensitivity of the power grid to supply new demands and variances on market growth. Analysis will also present the risks associated to each alternative by using probability factors and technical losses costs obtained through simulations The application of such a methodology is demonstrated through a case study in a determined region of a power distribution company. This work will demonstrate that when long term analysis is made considering several feasible technical and economic variables, the most attractive enterprise can be even that one with the largest investment. / Mestre

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:22:33Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2008-06-30Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T20:49:13Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 candian_fj_me_ilha.pdf: 2926371 bytes, checksum: 681a7b4f271fac889af23ae67968943a (MD5) / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / Para análises atualizadas de expansão do sistema elétrico de distribuição, as empresas buscam otimizar os investimentos direcionando-os da melhor forma possível para atender os critérios técnicos estabelecidos pelo órgão regulador envolvendo o menor risco e maior retorno financeiro. Atualmente, muitos estudos ainda são realizados analisando os investimentos em curto prazo, desconsiderando as variações futuras no mercado de energia e escolhendo o empreendimento com menor custo inicial. Este trabalho tem como objetivo desenvolver um modelo através da aplicação de metodologias técnicas e econômicas para encontrar a melhor opção de expansão do sistema elétrico de distribuição utilizando técnicas de engenharia econômica em longo prazo, considerando análise de sensibilidade e quantificação de risco através de probabilidades. Serão analisadas alternativas de expansão do sistema elétrico através de simulações técnicas verificando os critérios de disponibilidade, carregamento e queda de tensão no horizonte previsto. As alternativas viáveis serão analisadas economicamente considerando, além das técnicas de engenharia econômica, a sensibilidade do sistema elétrico para atendimento às novas demandas e variações do crescimento de mercado, bem como os riscos associados a cada alternativa utilizando fatores de probabilidade e custo de perdas técnicas obtidas através de simulações. Para ilustrar este modelo, foi realizado um estudo de caso em determinada região pertencente a uma concessionária de distribuição de energia do Sudeste do País. Será mostrado neste trabalho que, quando as análises são realizadas em longo prazo considerando diversas alternativas tecnicamente viáveis e as variáveis necessárias para análise econômica, o empreendimento mais viável a ser realizado poderá ser o que tiver o maior investimento. / Current analysis on power distribution system expansion require companies to look after optimized investments by allocating them appropriately in order to meet the technical criteria set by the regulation agency considering the lowest risk and the highest financial result. Nowadays, many analyses are still performed taking into account short term investments thus not considering the future variances of the energy market, and selecting the lowest initial investment enterprise option. This work aims to develop a model with technical and economic methodologys to identify the best option for expanding the power distribution system by using long term driven economic engineering considering sensitivity analysis and probability risk assessment. Alternatives for the power distribution system will be analyzed through technical simulations that verify different criteria such as availability, system load and system tension fall in the comprised horizon. Feasible alternatives will be economically analyzed taking into consideration economic engineering techniques and furthermore analyzing the sensitivity of the power grid to supply new demands and variances on market growth. Analysis will also present the risks associated to each alternative by using probability factors and technical losses costs obtained through simulations The application of such a methodology is demonstrated through a case study in a determined region of a power distribution company. This work will demonstrate that when long term analysis is made considering several feasible technical and economic variables, the most attractive enterprise can be even that one with the largest investment.

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The aim of this study was to examine how manure-derived value-added products via anaerobic digestion impact the environment and economics of dairy farming. An on-farm anaerobic digester (AD) at Virginia dairy was used in this study. The AD performance evaluated for: (i) biogas production (ii) waste stabilization; and (iii) production of organic fertilizer. Locally available organic waste streams were evaluated for co-digestion with dairy manure to increase biomethane production at the on-farm AD. The effective pasteurization temperature and duration to reduce fecal coliform, E. coli, and Salmonella concentrations in the AD effluent to acceptable levels for use as an organic fertilizer were determined. A partial environmental and economic analysis was conducted on the AD system to determine its effects on the environmental-economic sustainability of dairy farming. The results showed that the manure-derived value-added products from the AD improved environmental health and had the potential to improve the economic sustainability of the dairy farm. The AD stabilized the manure adequately and produced 400 KW of electricity, enough to power 230 US homes. Blending manure with locally available organic materials increased volatile fatty acid production, suggesting the potential to increase biomethane yields. Pasteurization at 70°C is sufficient to reduce pathogen indicating organisms to acceptable levels for the manure to be used as an organic fertilizer. The payback periods range from 4.6 to 11.8 years for the AD investment costs and reductions in direct manure methane emissions of 2,436 tonnes CO2e per year. / Master of Science

A comparative study of the economic benefits that can be obtained from different degrees of power factor correction for medium and small scale industrial installations is shown. A new approach for precise calculation of kws and kvars required at different power factors is presented. These calculated values are used to find the return on investments for the capacitors needed for power factor correction. The developed method is easy to use, cost effective, accurate and will help electrical engineers with minimum knowledge of power systems to precisely determine the savings available by improving the power factor of an industrial load.

[Truncated abstract] In an urban network, any change to the capacity of a road or an intersection will generally result in some traffic changing its route. In addition the presence of intersections creates the need for frequent stops. These stops increase the fuel consumption by anywhere between thirty to fifty percent as evidenced by published standardised vehicle fuel consumption figures for urban and for country driving. Other components of vehicle operating costs such as tyre and brake wear and time costs will also be increased by varying amounts. Yet almost all methods in use for economic evaluation of urban road projects use open road vehicle operating costs (sometimes factored to represent an average allowance for stopping at intersections) for one year or sometimes two years in the analysis period and then make assumptions about how the year by year road user benefits may change throughout the period in order to complete the analysis. This thesis will describe a system for estimating road user costs in an urban network that calculates intersection effects separately and then adds these effects to the travel costs of moving between intersections. Daily traffic estimates are used with a distribution of the flow rate throughout the twenty-four hours giving variable speed of travel according to the level of congestion at different times of the day. For each link, estimates of traffic flow at two points in time are used to estimate the year-by-year traffic flow throughout the analysis period by linear interpolation or extrapolation. The annual road user costs are then calculated from these estimates. Annual road user benefits are obtained by subtracting the annual road user costs for a modified network from the annual road user costs for an unmodified network. The change in the road network maintenance costs are estimated by applying an annual per lane maintenance cost to the change in lane-kilometres of road in the two networks. The Benefit Cost Ratio is calculated for three discount rates. An estimate of the likely range of error in the Benefit Cost Ratio is also calculated