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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

Modelling inground decay of wood poles for optimal maintenance decisions

Rahmin, Anisur January 2003 (has links)
Wood poles are popular and widely used in the Power Supply Industries in all over the world because of their high strength per unit weight, low installation and maintenance costs and excellent durability. Reliability of these components depends on a complex combination of age, usage, component durability, inspection, maintenance actions and environmental factors influencing decay and failure of components. Breakdown or failure of any one or more of these components can lead to outage and cause a huge loss to any organisation. Therefore, it is extremely important to predict the next failure to prevent it or reduce its effect by appropriate maintenance and contingency plans. In Australia, more than 5.3 million wooden poles are in use. This represents an investment of around AU$ 12 billion with a replacement cost varying between AU$1500-2500 per pole. Well-planned inspection and maintenance strategies considering the effect of environmental and human factors can extend the reliability and safety of these components. Maintenance and sophisticated inspection is worthwhile if the additional costs are less than the savings from the reduced cost of failures. Objectives of this research are to: * Investigate decay patterns of timber components based on age and environmental factors (e.g. clay composition) for power supply wood pole in the Queensland region. * Develop models for optimizing inspection schedules and Maintenance plans. Deterioration of wood poles in Queensland is found mostly due to inground soil condition. It is found that the moisture content, pH value (Acidity/ alkalinity), bulk density, salinity and electrical conductivity have influence over the deterioration process. Presence of Kaolin or Quartz has some indirect effect on the degradation process. It allows more water to be trapped inside the soil that cause algae, moss and mould to grow and attack the wood poles. On the other hand, by virtue of permeability, soils with high quartz content allows more water to infiltrate, preventing the growth of micro-organism. This research has increased fundamental understanding of inground wood decay process, developed testing methods for soil factors and proposed integrated models for performance improvement through optimal inspection, repair and replacement strategies considering durability, environmental and human factors in maintenance decisions. A computer program is also developed to analyse "what if" scenario for managerial decisions. This research has enhanced knowledge on the wood decay process in diverse environmental conditions. The outcomes of this research are important, not only to users of timber components with ingrond decay but also to the wood industry in general (the housing sector, railways for wooden sleepers and other structural applications such as timber bridges). Three refereed conference papers have already come out of this research and two more papers for refereed journal publication are in the process. This research can be extended to develop models for: * Qualitative as well as quantitative research database on lab/field wood decay process; * Assessment of the residual life of timber infrastructure; * Optimal condition monitoring and maintenance plans for timber components showing inground decay; And * Cost effective decisions for prevention of timber components and mitigation. Findings of this research can be applied to other equipment or assets showing time dependent failure rate and can be extended further to consider age/usage replacement policies, downtime and liability costs.
2

ANÁLISE ESPACIAL DA OCORRÊNCIA DE ACIDENTES OFÍDICOS NO BRASIL E SEUS DETERMINANTES AMBIENTAIS E SOCIOECONÔMICOS

Santos, Cleiton Jose Costa 14 March 2018 (has links)
Submitted by admin tede (tede@pucgoias.edu.br) on 2018-05-29T13:32:18Z No. of bitstreams: 1 CLEITON JOSÉ COSTA SANTOS 1.pdf: 1693805 bytes, checksum: 73acf521014b6d3136d8e759744648f7 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-05-29T13:32:18Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 CLEITON JOSÉ COSTA SANTOS 1.pdf: 1693805 bytes, checksum: 73acf521014b6d3136d8e759744648f7 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-03-14 / Recently the World Health Organization reclassified the snakebites as Neglected Tropical Disease. This problem mainly affects economically active age groups of rural populations in poor or in developing countries in tropical regions. Despite the low mortality rate associated with this type of accident in Brazil, one of the largest estimates of occurrence was attributed to the country. The epidemiological profile is widely known in several Brazilian regions, but little was inferred about factors associated with the occurrence of snakebites in the country. In order to analyze the spatial distribution of snakebites caused by snakes of the Elapidae and Viperidae families in the Brazilian municipalities between 2007 and 2015, we associate the number of snakebites with variables related to human factors (Area of the Municipality, Population, Agricultural Production, Municipal Human Development Index and Gross Domestic Product) and environmental factors (Species Richness, Remnant Area of Native Vegetation, Altitude and Climate). The records of notifications were obtained from the database of the Ministry of Health's Information and Notification System of Injuries. The average annual incidence rate for the time series analyzed was calculated. The association between the number of snakebites and factors analyzed was tested through Multiple Linear Regression Analysis by an OLS (Ordinary Least Square) model, evaluating the spatial autocorrelation in the model residues by the Moran Index. The variance partition was performed to evaluate the isolated effect of the different factors (environmental, human and spatial) on the variation of the accident data. Data were analyzed at national and regional scales. The average annual incidence for the period was 12.1/100,000 inhabitants. The North and Midwest regions presented the highest incidence, followed by the Northeast, South and Southeast regions, respectively. The OLS model indicated association more than 50% between snakebites data and variables tested, with the highest contribution of human factors followed the spatial effect and lower contribution of environmental factors in all scales. The model showed higher suitability especially for regions with the highest incidence rate, indicating differences in the composition of the most important variables in each region. However, it is possible to infer that in the analysis period, human factors contributed most heavily to the occurrence of snakebites in Brazil, followed by the spatial effect on the distribution of these snakebites and minor contribution of environmental factors. Clearly, the demographic density linked to type of occupation and climatic conditions may favor the increase of snakebites in the country, and different regional characteristics can clarify the disparity in the incidence rate among the Brazilian regions. / Recentemente os acidentes ofídicos foram reclassificados pela Organização Mundial da Saúde como Doença Tropical Negligenciada. Esse problema atinge principalmente grupos etários economicamente ativos de populações rurais em países pobres ou em desenvolvimento nas regiões tropicais. Apesar do baixo índice de mortalidade associado a esse tipo de acidente no Brasil, uma das maiores estimativas de ocorrência foi atribuída ao país. O perfil epidemiológico é amplamente conhecido nas diversas regiões brasileiras, porém, pouco se inferiu sobre fatores associados à ocorrência de acidentes ofídicos no país. Assim, com o objetivo de analisar a distribuição espacial dos acidentes causados por serpentes das famílias Elapidae e Viperidae, registrados para os municípios brasileiros entre os anos de 2007 e 2015, associamos o número de acidentes ofídicos, obtidos na base de dados do Sistema de Informação e Notificação de Agravos do Ministério da Saúde, com variáveis ligadas a fatores humanos e ambientais considerando o efeito espacial na distribuição dos dados. A taxa de incidência média anual foi calculada para elaboração do mapa de distribuição nacional e regional da incidência no período analisado. A associação entre o número de acidentes e fatores analisados foi testada através de Análise de Regressão Linear Múltipla OLS (Ordinary Least Square), avaliando a autocorrelação espacial nos resíduos do modelo pelo Índice de Moran. A partição de variância foi realizada para avaliar o efeito isolado dos diferentes fatores sobre a variação do número de acidentes. A incidência média anual para o período foi de 12,1/100.000hab. As regiões Norte e Centro-Oeste apresentaram as maiores incidências, seguidas pelas regiões Nordestes, Sul e Sudeste, respectivamente. O modelo OLS indicou associação superior a 50% entre dados de acidentes e variáveis testadas, com maior contribuição dos fatores humanos seguidos do efeito espacial e menor contribuição dos fatores ambientais em todas as escalas analisadas. O modelo mostrou maior adequação principalmente para as regiões com maior taxa de incidência, indicando diferenças na composição das variáveis mais importantes em cada região. Contudo, é possível inferir que no período analisado, fatores humanos contribuíram mais fortemente para a ocorrência de acidentes ofídicos no Brasil, seguidos do efeito espacial sobre a distribuição desses acidentes e menor contribuição dos fatores ambientais. Especialmente, o adensamento demográfico ligado ao tipo de ocupação e condições climáticas podem favorecer o aumento de acidentes ofídicos no país e diferentes características regionais podem esclarecer a disparidade na taxa de incidência entre as regiões brasileiras.

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