Thesis: S.M. in Real Estate Development, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in conjunction with the Center for Real Estate, 2015. / Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 64-66). / The number of Chinese citizens aged 60 years and above is predicted to reach to 440 million by 2050, accounting for roughly 34 percent of the country's total population. The one-child policy has created a declining fertility rate. At the same time, the life expectancy of people keeps rising. The combination of low fertility and long life spans have moved China towards a rapidly aging society. To prepare for the aging society, the Chinese government has issued a series of policies to enhance the senior care industry. The government encourages private and foreign enterprises to invest and engage in senior care services in China. Chinese developers and operators are trying to import foreign practices into the Chinese context. Foreign experts are looking for business opportunities in this untapped market. Although China's senior housing market is undoubtedly appealing, industry players must address several issues before stepping into this market because it is still in infancy period compared to other developed countries. The study examines the key factors that influence senior housing development in China, and those essential elements that foster the industry in U.S. / by Tian Tang. / S.M. in Real Estate Development

Thesis (S.M. in Real Estate Development)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in Conjunction with the Center for Real Estate, 2011. / This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections. / Cataloged from student-submitted PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 80-82). / Real estate development is a complex process in which developers and equity investors look to capitalize on favorable financial markets and economic forces to produce investment returns. Real estate development is a risky venture in even the most mature economies that possess transparent government regulations, reliable local and national legal systems, efficient capital markets, skilled labor markets and substantial market demand data. These issues are magnified in an emerging market where few of the above ingredients are readily available. However, the hypothesis of this thesis is that a developer can better assemble its development team, positively impact performance, and reduce execution risks by reorganizing project teams with the resources currently available in India. This thesis contemplates the evolution of real estate development design and delivery methods as developers compete to deliver real estate assets; equity investors seek greater insulation from execution risk; and a growing stable of qualified construction professionals compete for contracts. However, demand for real estate assets, equity investment hurdles and increased competition are pressuring developers to consider design and delivery methods that decrease the time to market and contemplate risk allocation. The analytic approach of this thesis is to: 1) document common delivery methods in India through a series of interview with developers, architects, project management consultants, quantity surveyors and contractors, 2) compare and contrast the delivery methods and allocation of execution risk in the United States and India and 3) propose a management plan to further mitigate execution risk through different risk allocation and delivery methods. The goal of this thesis is to provide developers and equity investors insight into the evolution of the Indian delivery process and identify emerging opportunities to mitigate execution risk. / by Neal Howard. / S.M.in Real Estate Development

Thesis: S.M. in Real Estate Development, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in conjunction with the Center for Real Estate, 2016. / Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 84-85). / This thesis explores the redevelopment potential of a historically landmarked church building in Cambridge, MA. The building is in a rapidly developing area in constant need of new housing. The proposal is bound by the constraints mandated by the building's historical designation, a ground lease payment to its owner, and a new chapel to serve the local community. The development plan must be sensitive to a number of stakeholder concerns, which are addressed through conscious design interventions, programmatic elements, and stress-tested financial projections. This document is divided amongst market and site context, a program and design outline, and a financial proposal reflecting nuanced market assumptions. It is prepared from the perspective of the developer / general partner. The thesis concludes with the overall feasibility of redevelopment on the site and demonstrates why the authors and their vision are uniquely suited for this redevelopment. / by Francesca B. Cooke and James R. Scott. / S.M. in Real Estate Development

Thesis (S.M. in Real Estate Development)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in Conjunction with the Center for Real Estate, 2011. / This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections. / Cataloged from student-submitted PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 42). / A very popular hypothesis of late is that grocery-anchored shopping centers perform better and are less risky than other retail investments. This hypothesis is primarily based on three notions: 1) grocery stores are unique in their ability to attract shoppers on a regular basis, often two to three times a week. This provides a grocery-anchored shopping center with consistent traffic that benefits the in-line tenants; 2) Grocery stores represent a non-cyclical business. People need to eat whether the economy is strong or weak, therefore, grocery-anchored shopping centers can rely on a minimum level of traffic regardless of economic conditions; 3) Many retailers have experienced significant sales leakage to the Internet. This has recently led to the concept of replacing large stores with small showrooms. However, the Internet has not impacted the grocery store business as significantly. Although some grocers have attempted to implement online stores, the model has been difficult to implement and unsuccessful. Therefore, many investors view grocery-anchored shopping centers as a hedge to the threat of online shopping faced by other retailers. These three characteristics have led many core investors to allocate capital to grocery-anchored shopping centers since they are viewed as stable and low-risk investments relative to other real estate alternatives. The purpose of this Thesis is to evaluate the performance of grocery-anchored shopping centers relative to other real estate investments, primarily in terms of asset prices and capitalization rates. This Thesis will attempt to determine whether investors pay more for grocery-anchored shopping centers and whether a potential price premium is warranted based on actual performance. This Thesis will also measure the volatility of grocery-anchored shopping center prices compared to other retail and non-retail investments to help determine the relative risk of these investments. / by Adam Schwank. / S.M.in Real Estate Development

Thesis (S.M. in Real Estate Development)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in Conjunction with the Center for Real Estate, 2011. / This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections. / Cataloged from student-submitted PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 82-85). / In 1998, the Chinese government abandoned the danwei ("work-unit") housing allocation system and fully privatized the housing market. Since then, the residential price has never stopped increasing despite the past financial crisis worldwide. In April 2011, statistics show that the average sales price of new residential apartments in 10 major metropolitan cities of China has reached RMB 15,802 per square meter (approximately USD 226 per square feet). In Shanghai, the price is about RMB 26,356 per square meter (above USD 376 per square feet), much higher than that in many big cities in developed countries. More and more Chinese urban dwellers, especially those who earn low salaries and live in metropolitan areas such as Shanghai are challenged by escalating housing prices. Each year the central government introduced several housing policies in order to solve the nationwide housing affordability problem. Recently, Chinese Premier announced that China aims to build 36 million affordable housing units by 2015. Despite severe housing affordability problems in Shanghai, the municipality has been lagging behind many other cities or provinces in terms of affordable housing programs. Last year, the municipal government finally started to experiment with affordable housing programs in selected districts. This thesis serves as a starting point to discuss the effectiveness of affordable housing programs in Shanghai by using five major criteria, -- provide and expand the supply of good-quality housing units; -- make housing more affordable and readily available; -- promote economic diversity in residential neighborhood; -- help households build wealth; and -- promote balanced metropolitan growth. According to the preliminary observation and assessment, the newly released affordable housing programs in Shanghai has been effective by incorporating both supply and demand approaches and successfully targeting at extremely low income group. Despite the achievements, there is still some room for further improvement. Hopefully, by introducing more varieties of housing programs such as inclusionary housing, the Shanghai Affordable Housing Programs will benefit more households in the coming years. / by Linyun Sun. / S.M.in Real Estate Development

Thesis (S.M. in Real Estate Development)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in Conjunction with the Center for Real Estate, 2013. / This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections. / Cataloged from student-submitted PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 145-152). / This thesis systematically evaluates how rapid developments in the nascent crowdfunding industry, combined with recent regulatory changes, will impact the commercial real estate markets. The phenomenon of crowdfunding, defined as raising numerous small amounts of capital from a large number of people, or the crowd, has been accelerated by the recent passage of the Jumpstart Our Businesses Start-up Act (JOBS Act). The JOBS Act legalizes and facilitates the sale of securities used to crowdfund equity and debt investments, giving rise to a proliferation of new crowdfund entrants in various business sectors, including the commercial real estate arena. This thesis first gives a detailed analysis of the JOBS Act legislation and how it alters the current regulatory and business landscape. The focus then turns to the commercial real estate markets, tracing the evolution of commercial real estate as an institutional asset class and the influence large, institutional investors such as pension funds and real estate investment trusts exert on this market. The authors also examine the impact on the average investor and conclude that these large institutional investors have bifurcated the market, leaving the average investor unable to gain exposure to "hard" commercial real estate assets. The authors then link the research to crowdfunding, first with a chapter on the emerging and dynamic crowdfund industry in general, and then on specific commercial real estate crowdfunding sites, also discussing sites related to this sector. The authors strengthen this primary research with field investigations, conducting interviews with real estate developers, investors, and securities lawyers specializing in regulatory law. They concurrently surveyed 138 well-vetted real estate professionals (the MIT Center for Real Estate alumni). The thesis then projects the size of the potential dollar value of the commercial real estate crowdfund market based on existing value and turnover in the commercial real estate markets. The final chapter imagines what this market will look like in 2015; concluding that crowdfunding will have a profound effect on the commercial real estate market. / by John R. McDonald and Bonnie L. Burgett. / S.M.in Real Estate Development

Thesis (S.M. in Real Estate Development)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in Conjunction with the Center for Real Estate, 2013. / Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. / The model developed here provides an enhancement of the traditional DCF asset acquisition valuation template, in Excel. It provides a relatively transparent and user-friendly yet flexible risk-adjusted valuation of a subject individual acquisition, structured to consider the asset either as a core asset or a value-add asset. This study applies a basic stock flow model of space market dynamics to address the question of covariance among input variables. The model is designed with optional probabilistic inputs and historical data for the local space market (employment, rents, net rentable area, occupied space, new completions, vacancy and absorption) and the asset market (cap rates history) to produce a 15-year forecast for the relevant space and asset market for the subject property. An optional optimal rent module in the model uses the forecasted cap rates and consequent opportunity cost of capital to arrive at optimal asking rents for the subject property. The existing rent roll is combined with the future rents and vacancies along with asset level projections of operating costs and capital expenditures to arrive at the cash flow projections. Renewal probability and probability to lease up are major differentiating factors between the core and value add asset. The model also enables the user to optionally consider how flexibility in resale timing can improve the overall return performance from a probabilistic perspective. The output of the model includes an apprehension of the entire going-in risk return relationship, depicted relative to a relevant security market line generated by the input risk free interest rate and the opportunity cost of capital in the relevant asset market. Key words: Probabilistic, risk adjusted valuation, forecast, optimal rent, flexibility, renewal probability, probability to lease up. / by Sarwesh Paradkar. / S.M.in Real Estate Development

Thesis (S.M. in Real Estate Development)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in Conjunction with the Center for Real Estate, 2011. / This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections. / Cataloged from student-submitted PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 67-68). / This study examines and forecasts the Seoul office market, which is going to face a big supply in the next few years. After reviewing several previous studies on the Dynamic model and the Seoul Office market, this thesis applies two structural econometric models to forecast trends of rent, vacancy, and new supply of office space of Seoul Office Market, which is going to face a big supply in the next a few years. The first model has rent and supply equations. The second model is a full model that consists of three simultaneous equations; rent, supply, and absorption equations Empirically, the simple model was tested against time-series data of the Seoul office market since 1975. Rent equation is explained by current office stock, current GDP and past rent and past GDP, both lagging one year. The supply equation explains new office supply by one year lagging completion, five and six years lagging rent and growth of GDP in two previous years. The second model is a full model that consists of three simultaneous equations: rent, supply, and absorption equations based on time-series data since 1991. In this model, rent is impacted by current vacancy rate, past rent and vacancy rate both lagging one year. The supply equation is explained by completion one year ago, five years lagging rent, and past vacancy rate lagging four years, and the absorption equation is expressed by GDP per employment, current GDP, one year ago rent, and occupied stocks. Using estimated models with exogenous supplies for the next six years, ten-year contingent forecasts are made based on three scenarios having different estimated GDP growths. The forecasts for both models demonstrate that untypical supply for next six years will impact office rent negatively in all of the scenarios. In short, the Seoul office market, strongly affected by big supply over demand until 2016, will tend to be become soft or tight during same period before supply goes down and rent reacts. Since late 2010s, however, the market will fully recover from oversupply. / by Kyungmin Kim. / S.M.in Real Estate Development

Thesis (S.M. in Real Estate Development)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in Conjunction with the Center for Real Estate, 2011. / Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 52-53). / A lack of quality housing affordable to the average worker near employment centers has long been an issue in American cities where the private production of housing for middle income families is restricted by market forces, zoning or physical boundaries. There are approximately 2.3 million middle income households in New York who earn between 80% and 150% of the Median Family Income who are priced out of market rate housing. These households are forced to relocate elsewhere or spend a daunting percentage of their time and income on housing and/or transportation. The high cost of land, labor and materials are further exacerbated by zoning regulations and entitlement review processes to result in a prohibitively high cost of housing production. Governments across the US and in New York have developed various types of policy strategies aimed at subsidizing development and increasing the affordability of housing. This thesis provides a summary discussion and perspective on the factors that increase the cost of housing production. It then reviews the different strategies utilized in reducing these costs, both nationally and locally in New York. Next it tests each strategy's effectiveness using a case study of a proposed development project in Brooklyn, NY. Finally it discusses the effectiveness of these strategies and proposes additional ideas that could also be effective in reducing the overall cost of housing, aiding in the effort to make housing more affordable to the average worker. / by Samuel R. Moore. / S.M.in Real Estate Development

Thesis: S.M. in Real Estate Development, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in conjunction with the Center for Real Estate, 2016. / Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 54-56). / In today's innovation economy, the development of innovation hubs is viewed as a strategic undertaking to nourish the entrepreneurial ecosystem and to enhance economic vitality. The study uses Silicon Valley, one of the most successful innovation hubs in modern history, as a case example to find the factors that have contributed to its success, and how these factors will evolve over time. Using existing literature and in-depth interviews, the study produces a framework of key factors that will influence the development of such hubs in the future. Silicon Valley case shows that the foundation element of a successful innovation hub is people - the human capital. Adding to this element, five hardware ingredients - Universities & R&D Centers, Venture Capital, Major Corporations, Service Providers, and Government - have an irreplaceable role in sustaining the vitality of such hubs. The intangible software, culture with its four dimensions entrepreneurial mentality, mobility of resources, global perspective and shared vision, acts as a catalyst that brings the foundation element and hardware ingredients together, allowing them to interact and cooperate. Ultimately, an effective entrepreneurial ecosystem is formed from the combination of all these factors. The findings from in-depth interviews suggest that the original culture of Silicon Valley will continue to play a key role in future innovation hubs. This entrepreneurial mentality, especially in terms of openness, supportiveness, forgiveness and risk-taking attitude, remains highly desired by today's entrepreneurs. Simultaneously, recent shifts in the demographic landscape have changed the nature of the foundation element - people. Millennials and the Creative Class have become a dominant pool of talented workforce, and they possess different values and preferences compared to other generations. Together with urbanization, this creative workforce shows high appreciation towards the role of place and urban lifestyle. Thus, in order to successfully attract and retain such talents, urban location will play an increasingly important role in future innovation hubs. It is estimated that the "place element" will become a new addition the innovation hub hardware system, supporting the overall development of entrepreneurial climate. / by Dandi Li. / S.M. in Real Estate Development