Magistro baigiamojo darbo tema yra aktuali, nes Europos Sąjungos bendrosios pinigų politikos sukūrimas bei funkcionavimas yra ypatingai svarbus žingsnis Europos integracijoje, atveriantis kelią galutiniam politiniam valstybių narių suartėjimui. Todėl detali šios Europos Sąjungos politikos srities studija yra būtina siekiant pažinti ateities integracinių procesų galimybes bei iššūkius. Paskutinė euro zonos plėtra įvyko 2009 m. sausio 1 d., kuomet Slovakijoje įvesta euro valiuta. Europos Bendrijos valiutą naudojančių ES valstybių narių skaičius padidėjo ik šešiolikos. Nors Estija kol kas dar nėra pasiekusi visiškos integracijos EPS procese, tačiau 2010 m. gegužės mėn. Europos Komisija oficialiai pasiūlė Estijai nuo ateinančių metų sausio 1 d. prisijungti prie euro zonos. Tyrimo tikslas – įvertinti Slovakijos ir Estijos ekonominę ir teisinę konvergenciją. Atsižvelgiant į tyrimo tikslą ir iškeltus uždavinius, darbe teoriniu aspektu apžvelgiami Europos ekonominės ir pinigų sąjungos kūrimo etapai, išryškinami dalyvavimo ekonominėje ir pinigų sąjungoje privalumai ir trūkumai; išanalizuojama Europos centrinio banko bei kitų Europos Sąjungos institucijų politika euro zonos plėtros procese; įvertinamas Slovakijos ir Estijos makroekonominių rodiklių atitikimas Mastrichto konvergencijos kriterijams bei Europos Sąjungos ir šių šalių nacionalinės teisės harmonizavimas, bei pateikiamas Slovakijos naudos euro zonoje įvertinimas ir Estijos pasiruošimas prisijungti prie ekonominės ir pinigų... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / Subject of the final master’s thesis is topical, because development and functioning of the common European Union monetary policy is especially important step in European integration, opening the way for final political approach of the member states. Thus a detailed study of this sphere of the European Union politics is necessary striving to cognize possibilities and challenges of the future integration processes. The last expansion in the Euro-area happened on 1 January 2009, when the euro was introduced in Slovakia. A number of the EU member states that use the currency of the European Union increased up to sixteen. Though Estonia still hasn’t reached complete integration in the EMU process, yet in May 2010 European Commission officially suggested Estonia to join the Euro-area from 1 January 2011. Objective of the research is to assess Slovakia’s and Estonia’s economic and legal convergence. Considering the objective of the research and set tasks, stages of development of the Economic and Monetary Union in Europe are covered in the work in theoretical aspect, advantages and disadvantages of participation in the Economic and Monetary Union are highlighted; policy of the European Central Bank and other institutions of the European Union in the process of euro-area expansion is analysed; conformity of Slovakia’s and Estonia’s macroeconomic indices to criteria of Maastricht convergence and harmonization of the European Union Law and national law of the mentioned countries and... [to full text]

The aim of the thesis is to evaluate the stability of the euro area in the context of the impact of the economic crisis. The work is divided into three chapters. The theory of optimum currency area was identified as a fundamental theoretical basis for subsequent analysis, and then Ireland and Portugal were chosen as the two countries representing vulnerable economies, which have been subjected to more detailed examination and comparison. These two parts were for the coherence of the whole work set in the historical context of European monetary integration. The first part deals with a theory of optimal currency area. The first chapter is further analysis of potential benefits and costs of the monetary area. The second chapter focuses on the historical context of monetary integration in Europe and recent developments in euro area countries. The theme of the third chapter is to compare the impact of the crisis on the Irish and the Portuguese economy. This chapter focuses on the main causes of the crisis in Ireland and then in Portugal, the impact of the crisis on them and stability restoring program adopted in the context of drawing loans from the European Commission, ECB and IMF. In the last part of the third chapter the causes and effects of the crisis in Ireland and Portugal were mutually compared. The conclusion of this chapter is devoted to the prospects of these countries into the future.

Charles University Faculty of Social Sciences Institute of Economic Studies MASTER'S THESIS Assessing Economic Linkages between the EU and the Eastern Europe Neighbours Author: Bc. DanielaMoisei Supervisor: Prof. Roman Horváth, Ph.D. Academic Year: 2017/2018 Abstract The proposed study analyses the economic linkages between five Central and Eastern European countries (Czech Republic, Romania, Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine) and the euro area, in the period 2006-2017, applying the block-restriction vector autoregression model. It allows evaluating the amplitude and persistence of the domestic vs. euro area shocks on four macroeconomic indicators: real GDP, short-term interest rate, CPI, and FX rate. The main findings emphasize that EU members are more economically synchronized with the euro area, responding to external factors in less than 10 months. Nevertheless, the Central Banks of the East European countries react extensively to the ECB monetary policy shocks, following broadly its short-term interest rate. Eastern Neighbourhood countries and Central EU members demonstrated tight connections with the euro area, in terms of international transmission of price shocks and economic activity synchronization. Thus, Czech Republic and Romania could be relevant models for the Eastern European countries, reaching...

The last ten years have been extremely challenging for both researchers in monetary economics and policymakers.The Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2009, in spite of its size and severity, was initially widely perceived in the Euro Area (EA) as an imported and transitory crisis: it was frequently predicted that the EA economy would recover once the US and the World Economy rebounded. Instead, after a brief period of recovery, the Euro Area was hit by the Sovereign Debt Crisis of 2011-12, a domestic crisis which widened the divide already existing between core and peripheral countries up to the point of threatening a break-up of the euro. Thanks to the bold monetary policy response of the ECB this fear gradually vanished, but the sudden fall in oil price and the uncertain economic outlook led to the low inflation period, particularly severe in the EA, in which inflation, both in terms of headline and core measures, is well below the ECB target of 2%. This prompted the ECB to launch its Quantitative Easing program, at the beginning of 2015, much later than what the FED implemented to offset the impact of the 2007-09 crisis.This dissertation consists of two different but interlinked parts, which contribute to the empirical literature on monetary policy, low inflation and the business cycle. The first part is composed by Chapters I and II, and it is devoted to analyse the EA economy, both before the Global Financial Crisis and during the most recent low inflation period. The second one, composed by Chapters III and IV, focuses on the US economy to evaluate the possible negative consequences of the extraordinary monetary stimulus undertaken by the FED. In particular, we study the risks for both price and financial stability of the effects of the so called lift-off, i.e. the gradual normalization of monetary stance. In the first Chapter, we provide novel evidence on the different effects of the ECB common monetary policy on euro-area core and peripheral countries even before the eruption of the crisis.We estimate a structural dynamic factor model on a large panel of Euro Area quarterly variables to take into account both the comovement and the heterogeneity in the EA business cycle, and we then simulate the model to investigate the possible existence of asymmetric effects of ECB monetary policy on member states' economies. Data stop before the eruption of the Global Financial Crisis in order to only assess conventional monetary shocks, which are identified by means of sign restrictions. Although the introduction of the euro has changed the monetary transmission mechanism in the individual countries towards a more homogeneous response, we find that differences still remain between North and South Europe in terms of prices and unemployment. These results are the consequence of country-specific structures, rather than of European Central Bank policies.In the second Chapter we use a Bayesian VAR model to analyse the transmission of global and domestic shocks in the euro area, with a particular focus on the drivers of inflation, especiallyin the recent period labeled as low inflation. We identify several shocks by means of sign restrictions, and we account for the role of ECB unconventional monetary policies by using a shadow interest rate. We document that the recent low inflation phase was not entirely attributable to falling oil prices, but also to slack in economic activity and to insufficiently expansionary monetary policy, because of the Zero Lower Bound of interest rates. Interestingly, we show that the launch of the ECB Quantitative Easing turned the monetary stance into more accommodative, preventing deflationary outcomes. In the third Chapter we provide an empirical evaluation of the existence of a "dark side" of monetary policy, i.e. the possibility that credit spreads abruptly rise following a monetary tightening, after being compressed by an extraordinary period of monetary easing. This would create a problematic trade--off for the central bank, as temporary monetary expansions might at once stimulate the economy and sow the seeds of abrupt and costly financial market corrections in the future in terms of risks for financial stability (Stein, 2014).We investigate this possibility using data for the US by exploiting non-linear methods to examine the propagation of monetary shocks through US corporate bond markets. Across different methodologies, we find that the transmission of monetary shocks is mostly symmetric. What is asymmetric is instead the impact of macroeconomic data releases: spreads respond more to bad news. Crucially, these responses anticipate economic slowdowns rather than causing them directly.However, empirical evidence points to the possibility of larger effects of expansionary monetary shocks depending on (i) the type of non-linear estimation technique (ii) the identification of the shock and (iii) the inclusion of unconventional measures in the analysis. Finally, in the fourth Chapter, we ask whether the FED has riskily delayed the exit from its large monetary easing, increasing the probability of a future inflationary burst. We do so by means of medium and larger scale Bayesian VAR, which we use for both structural analysis, i.e. the evaluation of monetary policy shocks, and forecasting, i.e. the running of counterfactuals and scenario analysis.We show that expansionary monetary policy did not trigger a large deviation of inflation from its steady state. Furthermore, the FED monetary stance is totally in line with the concurrent macroeconomic dynamics. Last, our model predicts that US core inflation will lie well below its 2% target in 2017, a finding only recently acknowledged by the FOMC projections. / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

This diploma thesis deals with the preparation of the two EU Member States, namely Czech Republic and Slovakia, for joining the euro area. The first part briefly describes the formation of the Economic and Monetary Union. The core part lies in the assessment and in the comparison of both states regarding the fulfillment of the criteria for adoption of the single currency. The detailed analysis is focused mostly on the nominal and the real convergence.

The diploma thesis identifies and assesses current problems of the European Monetary Union, based on: firstly, theoretic approach which reviews the position of monetary union within the range of alternative exchange rate regimes, secondly, historic approach which explains evolutionary principle in the process of European monetary integration, and thirdly, economic approach which analyses the viability of the euro area by application of the criteria of the optimum currency area theory. Subsequently, the roots and development of today's euro area crisis are described and also future scenarios of development in Greece and entire euro area are briefly outlined. The analysis shows that the European Monetary Union by far does not meet the optimum currency area criteria and thus the euro area is considerably vulnerable to future asymmetric shocks.

The work aims to compare the tax measures in countries receiving international financial assistance during the economic crisis between 2007 -- 2013. For comparison, three EU countries were selected which are members of the tax policy, tax measures, tax, Ireland, Cyprus, Spain, the euro area., and which hadn't faced the lack of funding before the crisis - Ireland, Cyprus and Spain. In order to compare selected countries, it was necessary to define the requirements of the tax systems in general first and determine what the economic crisis is. The current crisis is systemic and therefore tax measures implemented in selected states have affected all of the taxes. Most of partial tax measures have been made in personal income tax and VAT. On the contrary, the tax on corporate income remained almost unchanged in Ireland and Cyprus. The vast majority of anti-crisis measures in selected countries have led to an increase in the tax burden on individuals, mostly people with higher income.

This manuscript is composed of three chapters.In the first chapter, I analyze the impact of key European Central Bank’s unconventional monetary policy announcements on inflation expectations, measured by Euro Area five-year Inflation Linked Swap rates five years ahead, since the aftermath of the crisis. I control for market liquidity and uncertainty measures, change in oil price shock and macroeconomic news. The results show that the impact of the European Central Bank’s announcements has been positive during the period under observation. Along the line of the expansionary monetary policy measures implemented, the agents have been revising upwards their long term inflation expectations. This means that the unconventional monetary policy measures were effective. In the second chapter, co-authored with Claudia Pacella, we construct a Bayesian vector autoregressive model with three layers of information: the key drivers of inflation, cross-country dynamic interactions, and country-specific variables. The model provides good forecasting accuracy with respect to the popular benchmarks used in the literature. We perform a step-by-step analysis to shed light on which layer of information is more crucial for accurately forecasting euro area inflation. Our empirical analysis reveals the importance of including the key drivers of inflation and taking into account the multi-country dimension of the euro area. The results show that the complete model performs better overall in forecasting inflation excluding energy and unprocessed food over the medium-term. We use the model to establish stylized facts on the euro area and cross-country heterogeneity over the business cycle. In the third chapter, using confidential firm-level data from the National Bank of Belgium, I document the heterogeneous response of firms’ markups to the 2008 financial crisis. Overall, markups increased in the aftermath of the crisis and the effect was larger for highly financially constrained firms. I show that standard heterogeneous-firm models, featuring monopolistic competition and variable markups, are unable to replicate these patterns. I then introduce endogenous demand shifters which respond to firm investment in market share (e.g. quality). I show that the interaction of an increase in the cost of procuring inputs combined with an endogenous quality downgrading can rationalize the observed changes in firm-level markups. / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

The purpose of this thesis is to sum up the evolution of monetary policy of the European Union so far and to review the impact of the global financial crisis upon the euro area outlining its future. The other purpose is to analyze the Maastricht convergence criteria fulfillment by the Czech Republic and to sum up if the Czech Republic is or isn't ready to enter the euro area and to adopt the common currency. The first and the second part of the thesis are more descriptive of dealing with the historical evolution of monetary policy from the initial formation in the European Economic Community to the origin of the European Monetary system. The third part brings the reader particular information about the Economic and Monetary union and phases of its foundation. It also brings about the European Central Bank which is the most important institution for monetary policy of the European Union and in the end summarizes the advantages and disadvantages of adopting the common currency. In the fourth part I try to assess the impact of the global financial crisis upon the states of the euro area and mention the view of experts on its future. The last chapter deals with the potencial entry of the Czech Republic to the euro area. That review is based on the analysis of the Maastricht convergence criteria fulfillment.

The Czech Republic has committed itself to adopt the euro with joining the European union in 2004. Until today there has not been any political interest of setting the specific date of euro adoption due to low public approval. Currently, there is an increase of positive public opinion about euro so it is the right time to start an objective discussion. The thesis is divided into three parts. The First part describes the history and evolution of the European monetary union, Maastricht convergence criteria and the theory of optimal currency area. The second part presents possible economic benefits and costs of joining the monetary union. The third and the main part examines the real effects of euro adoption on sample of selected countries with similar characteristics. The impact of euro on main economic indicators was analysed and there has been carried out a comparison between these countries. Also the role of euro in trade of selected countries has been highlighted. Last but not least, the possible impact of euro on country competitivness has been analysed in the context of optimum currency area theory. It is expected that joining the monetary union leads to a boost of bilateral trade which harmonizes the economic cycles of trade partners. The main purpose of this part is to prove the increase of competitiveness of exporters gained from monetary union measured by the raise of the bilateral trade interconnection. Finally these two criteria - gross domestic product alignment and bilateral trade interconnection have been used to describe the suitability of Czech Republic as a candidate country for the European monetary union.