This paper aims to investigate how the domestic unemployment rate of a nation is affected by joining the European currency union and converting to the euro. This is done through the use of a synthetic control method, as well as an augmented version of the model, where I define the Euro Area countries as the treatment group, and conversion to euro as treatment. In line with the predictions of previous related theoretical frameworks such as the optimum currency area theory, the gravity theory and Matusz’s equilibrium model, the findings in this paper suggests that conversion to the euro leads to a short-term decrease in domestic unemployment. The effect is likely due to the short-term increase in trade, specifically within-union trade, that arises from joining the EMU.

This study assesses the quality of national budget institutions and legislative budgetary power in the Euro Area (EA) and examines their implications on fiscal discipline. Following the sovereign debt crises, common EA requirements have been introduced for national budget institutions, most notably for fiscal rules and independent fiscal councils. Meanwhile, the legislature has a key role to ensure that budgetary decisions are democratically legitimate, but strong legislative budgetary power is generally associated with less fiscal restraint. Two comprehensive composite indices are produced, based on recent data which captures reforms implemented after the Crisis. The findings show that overall, budget institutions in the EA are of medium quality, whilst legislative budgetary power is weak. Notwithstanding the thrust for a ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach, the specific characteristics of budget institutions differ considerably among the EA countries. Furthermore, results from a two-way fixed effects panel model for 2006-2015 show a positive relationship between the quality of budget institutions and the budget balance, but, in contrast to previous studies, the effect is rather weak. Being supra-nationally mandated, recent reforms to budget institutions in EA member states may suffer from a lack of ownership, thus impinging on their effectiveness to instil fiscal discipline. A qualitative case study on Malta provides further insight into the limitations of centrally-mandated institutional reforms. Finally, the findings suggest that stronger legislative budgetary power does not necessarily jeopardise fiscal discipline, if this involves a broad role of the legislature in the budgetary process, beyond amendment powers.

No / Using a two-stage quantile regression framework, we uncover significant asymmetries across quantiles for all coefficients in an otherwise standard New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) for the euro area. A pure NKPC specification accurately captures inflation dynamics at high inflation quantiles.

This paper investigates a new category of influential factors on business cycle synchronization (BCS), so far hardly regarded in the BCS literature: It provides an empirical assessment of the impact of macroeconomic imbalances, as monitored by the European Commission by the scoreboard indicators since 2011, on BCS in the Euozone. We use a quarterly data set covering the period 2002-2012 and estimate the direct and indirect effects of macroeconomic imbalances in the pre- and post-crisis period in a simultaneous equations model. Business cycle correlation between EA members is measured by the recently proposed dynamic conditional correlation of Engle 2002 which can better identify synchronous and asynchronous behaviour of BC than the commonly used measures. We find that appearing differences between EA members in the current account, in government deficit and public debt, in private debt and unit labor cost developments have reduced BCS in the EA, even more in the post-crisis period than before. Moreover, these explanatory factors of BCS, generally reinforce each other and are also influenced by other critical macro imbalances. Since BCS is essential in a monetary union, this paper provides clear support that a stronger, common economic governance would be important for the functioning and survival of the Eurozone. (authors' abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

The sluggish development of corporate lending has remained the central concern of EU monetary policy makers as it is considered to hinder seriously the resurgence of growth. This paper looks at the development of loans to large corporations vs SMEs in the pre-crisis and post-crisis period and wishes to answer: (i) to which extent do allocated loan volumes actually contribute to Output growth? (ii) which factors determine the development of loans, considering above all loan interest rates? and (iii) what causes differences in loan interest levels across the EA? The results indicate that different loan developments in the EA explain very well differences in output development, loans to SMEs contribute even more to output growth than those for large corporations. Loan development itself is negatively influenced by the interest level which differs significantly across EA members, with small loans in addition always being charged an interest premium over large loans. The capitalization of banks, the size of banks and their internationalization play a role as well. A part of the sluggish growth of loans can be explained by the increasing use of alternative financial instruments by large firms. Interest rates in turn are following the ECB interest rate, - but this link has become looser in the post-crisis period, and long term government bond rates. Different risks faced by banks and different bank structures have become important explanatories of interest rates in the post-crisis period. (author's abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

In this work, I analyse inappropriateness of single monetary policy in the euro area and its impact on credit growth for the oldest twelve euro members and a time period spanning 1999Q1-2013Q3. The inappropriateness is expressed by deviations of actual interest rate from Taylor rule prescriptions. The obtained results are in line with a majority of existing literature since they show that the ECB's single interest rate was the least suitable for the so called PIIGS countries prior to the recent economic crisis. The impact of the deviations on credit growth is estimated econometrically by dynamic panel data estimation. The findings confirm my hypothesis that the deviations from the Taylor rule have a significant positive effect on credits volume, i.e. the higher is the Taylor rule prescription above the actual rate, the higher is the credit growth.

What explains IMF behavior in Europe between 2008 and 2012? Harshly criticized in Greece, yet tentatively praised in Hungary, the institution found itself playing different roles as it responded to a string of financial crises. Its programs varied substantially in terms of conditionality, financing, and private sector involvement. This thesis explores why, highlighting the changing global financial safety net, which is both expanding and becoming more decentralized due to the spectacular rise of regional financing arrangements (RFAs). Existing theories of IMF behavior assume the Fund to be a stand-alone institution and analyse financial assistance as the outcome from the interplay between creditors, borrowers, and staff. By focusing on dynamics within the IMF, however, they miss how developments outside the institution are increasingly shaping its behavior. This thesis brings in the role of changes in the institutional environment by drawing on the literature on regime complexity. The proliferation of RFAs alters the outside options of all actors, which affects their bargaining power. This opens the way for new strategies, through which creditors can entangle institutions by creating overlaps, borrowers can engage in confrontation between alternative financing institutions, and the IMF can find means to co-work with RFAs. These in turn affect whose preferences shape program design. This argument is tested empirically through process-tracing and comparing three cases of IMF-RFA cooperation in Europe. In Hungary, the IMF led the way in shaping a surprisingly 'generous' program with little constraint from the EU. However, in Latvia, the Fund found itself a 'junior partner' in a program driven by local authorities with the support of an European RFA. In Greece, the interests of creditors were paramount, securing IMF acquiescence through the threat of exclusion. These findings point to significant challenges for the Fund going forward. As RFAs continue to proliferate around the world, the IMF needs to avoid the temptation of striking even more Faustian bargains that keep it at the table of financial assistance at the cost of becoming a junior partner.

This thesis is principal focused on the question of the future existence and sustainability of the European integration project and its monetary element -- euro-area related to the competitiveness due to consequences of the global financial crisis, present situation and debt difficulties affecting states of Southern Europe, business and financially connected with other European countries. In my considerations and conclusions I also deal with prospective estate in case of various changes of the integration including disintegration, end of the single currency, as well as the factors, that might cause these changes and inflict serious consequences. It is necessary to reveal if the formed situation is acceptable for the member states. The aim of the thesis is to characterize and provide a piece of information about existing progress of the European integration in relation to treaties including competitiveness rating, outline serious issues especially endangering the euro-area and future stability of the whole European Union and analyze its impact, propose solutions and possible scenarios, eventually assess development perspectives and sustainability of the European Union as a complex.

Cette thèse regroupe trois articles sur les déséquilibres macroéconomiques en Europe, que ces déséquilibres se manifestent par une divergence entre pays membres de la zone euro, ou par une déformation du partage de la richesse entre travail et capital. Depuis l’introduction de l’Euro jusqu'à la crise financière globale de 2008, les déséquilibres macroéconomiques se sont creusés parmi les États membres : les prix et les salaires entre pays ont augmenté beaucoup plus rapidement dans les pays les plus pauvres initialement que dans le reste de la zone. Ces déséquilibres étaient tout d’abord perçus comme reflétant un processus de rattrapage. Cette interprétation a été remise en cause à partir de la crise financière globale de 2008. Ils ont été pointés du doigt comme reflétant de «mauvais» déséquilibres, signes d’une perte de compétitivité dans la « périphérie » de la zone euro. Les deux premiers chapitres identifient les facteurs à l’origine de ces déséquilibres. Ils montrent qu’ils sont en grande partie la conséquence de l’intégration économique elle-même. Le troisième chapitre s’intéresse au partage de la richesse entre travail et capital. Depuis le début des années 1980, la part de la richesse distribuée au travail a diminué dans les pays européens. En parallèle, la part des profits distribués aux actionnaires sous forme de dividendes et de rachats d’actions a augmenté. Ce chapitre suggère que sont en cause des changements dans la gouvernance des entreprises. Ces changements se manifestent par un rôle accru des investisseurs institutionnels dans le capital des sociétés non-financières, qui sont alors amenées à faire prédominer la rémunération des actionnaires au détriment du travail. / This doctoral thesis gathers three articles on macroeconomic imbalances in Europe. It deals with two types of imbalances: imbalances among European countries, and within these countries, in the distribution of income between labour and capital. From the Euro inception up to the 2008 global financial crisis, macroeconomic imbalances widened among Member States. This divergence took the form of strong differences in the dynamics of prices and wages: they increased much faster in "peripheral" economies than in "core" countries. These imbalances were first interpreted as reflecting a catch-up and convergence process of the poorest countries of the area. Both economists and policymakers challenged this view in the aftermath of the 2008 recession. Imbalances were then pointed out as reflecting a broader competitiveness problem in the "sinful periphery" compared to the "virtuous core". The first two chapters ask what are the main contributors to these imbalances. They argue that, in peripheral economies, they mostly reflect the process of economic integration. The third chapter focuses on the distribution of income between labour and capital. Since the early 1980s, there has been a decline in the share of income accruing to labour in European countries. This decline was parallel to an increase in the profit share, that reflects mostly the dynamics of payouts (dividends and buybacks) to shareholders. This chapter argues that these trends could be linked to recent trends in firm ownership. Non-financial corporations are increasingly owned by institutional investors, whom exert pressures for tighter governance in favor of shareholders and to the expense of labour.

The thesis investigates the role of structural rigidities in recent labour market performances in Europe through various and complementary angles in five essays. By structural rigidities, we mean a lasting feature caused by a set of institutions, which prevents a market from operating efficiently. The approach is essentially empirical and macro-economic, while the scope of the analysis is definitely European, which is technically reflected in the use of either euro area aggregates or panels and cross-sections of European countries.