The main purpose of the study is to investigate the exchange rate trend of China Renminbi from 1949 to nowadays, and predict the possibilities of the developed trend of China Renminbi in the future to investigate the problems of Chins Renminbi at present. It can divide China Renminbi into three periods, there are Centrally Planned Economy Period (1949~1979), Export to Accumulate Foreign Reserve (1980~1993), and Economy Adjustment Period (1994 to nowadays). The rate standard of Renminbi is usually under the China Economy policy consideration. First of all, the China Renminbi of Centrally Planned Economy Period is based on the policy consideration of the heavy industrialization, and it tends to overvalue the rate exchange to decrease the import prime cost. This condition is similar to East Europe countries before Soviet Union dismissed. Second, the Export to Accumulate Foreign Reserve tends to decrease the export cost to solicit the business. And it tents to underestimate the rate exchange similar to Taiwan of 1970s and Japan after World War II, before Plaza Accord. Moreover, the Renminbi of Economy Adjustment Period overvalued the rate exchange, but it keeps stable. The overvalued and stable standard of rate exchange strengthens the export competition of China. At the same time, it accumulate great deal of Foreign reserve which similar to the development countries of Southeast Asian to adopt Fixed Exchange Rate Regime Pegged to US Dollar. China accumulate great deal of foreign exchange because of the overvalued rate exchange, and it made the rate standard of Renminbi concerned by international. China can not self-contained after entering WTO, they have to face the opening market and the restriction of international regulations. China restricts itself by the textile industry, and they purchase foreign bond (American bond) to decrease the pressure of the appreciation of Renminbi. Even if the rate system of Renminbi has change from control the dollar to basket-pegged exchange rate regime, and it does not break away the connection between Hong Kong currencies. The Hong Kong currencies have risk of Hot Money. China still can not open their capital during the short term time to make the Renminbi floating and become convertible currency because of their economy circumstance; however, the expected long term rate of Renminbi revaluation is a necessary trend of the future.

The aim of the thesis is to explain short and medium term movements of the U.K. real effective exchange rate index from 1972 to 1984, within a relative purchasing power parity framework. This index is measured using both consumer and wholesale price indices. Movements are examined within a model that incorporates trade flow and asset market mechanisms. In order to validate the model, consideration of time series analysis, the measurement of expectations and the econometric estimation of the model are undertaken. The time series characteristics of the U.K. real and nominal effective exchange rate index are examined using regression, correlation, spectral and non-parametric statistical techniques. These imply that U.K. real exchange rate movements follow a quasi-random walk. Violations from the random walk occur partly due to the use of period averages in the construction of the index and partly from medium term time dependence. The empirical analysis of expectations is undertaken in a rational expectations framework. It is found that the best short term predictor of the nominal effective exchange rate index is a constructed forward effective exchange rate index. However, short term exchange rate movements appear largely due to 'news'. In the longer term, exchange rate expectations appear to be influenced by movements in the real current balance of goods and serVIces. The econometric analysis gives results broadly consistent with the model. This supports the view that the U.K. real effective exchange rate index returns to its equilibrium value in the long term, with movements in the short and medium terms eventually being corrected by trade flow and asset market mechanisms

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Diss. (sammanfattning) Göteborg : Univ., 2001. / Härtill 3 uppsatser.

Thesis (M.M. (Finance & Investment))--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, Graduate School of Business Administration, 2015. / e period 2000:q1 – 2014:q3 in South Africa. In addition, the paper examines the impact that the exchange rate volatility exerts on the different forms of capital flows. Consequently, the aim of the study is to examine whether the volatility in the exchange rate is a significant determinant of foreign investor capital into South African markets as well as to empirically establish the dynamic relationship that can be observed between capital flows and exchange rate volatility. A trade weighted exchange rate was constructed from which the conditional variance GARCH (1,1) model is applied to estimate exchange rate volatility. The findings from the multiple regression analysis reveal that exchange rate volatility has a statistically significant negative impact on the aggregated capital flows to South Africa. Using the bi-variate vector autoregressions (VARs), the Granger-causality test, impulse response and variance decomposition, the results show there is a dynamic interrelationship between exchange rate volatility and the aggregated and disaggregated capital flows. Furthermore, the VAR specifications results reveal that portfolio flows exhibits a strong bi-directional causality with exchange rate volatility as well as explaining a significant percentage of innovations in exchange rate volatility. This suggests that fluctuations in the exchange rate can be explained by portfolio flows into South Africa’s capital markets. The recommendations for authorities resulting from the findings include, a monetary policy that mitigates the rand exchange rate volatility in an effort to attenuate the adverse subduing effects it has on capital flows in South Africa. Further broadening financial instruments and derivatives available for investors to hedge against exchange rate volatility and a meticulous management of portfolio flows is imperative to ensure prevention of its destabilizing effect on the exchange rate.

Master Thesis: Evaluation of China's FOREX Policy: Equilibrium Exchange Rate Perspective. Author: - Qiriga Supervisor: Ing. Vilém Semerák M.A., PhD. Academic Year: 2018/2019 Abstract This thesis investigated China's foreign exchange policy from the equilibrium exchange rate perspective, using the Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate model with multiregional dimension. The core question is whether Renminbi is misaligned (over- or undervalued) from 2001 to 2017. The result indicated that the bilateral nominal exchange rate of Renminbi against the US dollar was undervalued from 2002 to 2013, reaching a peak of 34.2% in 2007. In the rest of the years, it was overvalued slightly against the US dollar. As to the real effective exchange rate (REER) of Renminbi, it was overvalued in the first three years of the 2000s, then went through the period of undervaluation of 9 years, with a smaller degree compared with the bilateral exchange rate. It is shown that from 2013 the REER of Renminbi had been overvalued for several years until it was undervalued again in 2017 by 2%. Keywords FEER, Renminbi, exchange rate misalignment, multinational model, real effective exchange rate

The purpose of this thesis is to examine whether the exchange rate volatility has an impact on Swedish exports. This relationship has been tested in several studies but no consistent result has been found. It is therefore an interesting subject to investigate further and it has not been thoroughly tested for Sweden using aggregated data. Since the exchange rate vola-tility may have an effect on exports, and therefore on the whole economy, the effect can support a certain exchange rate regime. All the data used in this thesis is based on the ag-gregated data for Sweden and the Euro zone between the years 1993 and 2006. The method chosen is a statistical analysis using regressions. Three variables other than ex-change rate volatility were included when conducting the regressions explaining Swedish exports and these are: the real effective exchange rate index, the industrial production in Sweden (“push” factor) and the import from the Euro Zone (“pull” factor). The overall conclusion found was that the industrial production in Sweden, the real effective exchange rate index, the time and lagged values of the export influence the export. There was no evi-dence found that the exchange rate volatility influences the exports for Sweden.

This paper analyzes the extent of foreign exchange rate exposure in Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore in both firm level and industry level in the period of January 1996 to January 2011 by regressing the stock return of a particular industry or firm on exchange rate changes while controlling for overall stock market movements. It is found that exchange rate movements do affect firm and industry value in a manner consistent with expectation and the extract of unexpected exchange rate changes from actual exchange rate changes have little influence on the testing results of exposure. It is also proved that exchange rate regime plays an irreplaceable role in drawing the structure of exchange rate exposure of a country.

<p>The purpose of this thesis is to examine whether the exchange rate volatility has an impact on Swedish exports. This relationship has been tested in several studies but no consistent result has been found. It is therefore an interesting subject to investigate further and it has not been thoroughly tested for Sweden using aggregated data. Since the exchange rate vola-tility may have an effect on exports, and therefore on the whole economy, the effect can support a certain exchange rate regime. All the data used in this thesis is based on the ag-gregated data for Sweden and the Euro zone between the years 1993 and 2006. The method chosen is a statistical analysis using regressions. Three variables other than ex-change rate volatility were included when conducting the regressions explaining Swedish exports and these are: the real effective exchange rate index, the industrial production in Sweden (“push” factor) and the import from the Euro Zone (“pull” factor). The overall conclusion found was that the industrial production in Sweden, the real effective exchange rate index, the time and lagged values of the export influence the export. There was no evi-dence found that the exchange rate volatility influences the exports for Sweden.</p>

There have been different degrees of exchange rate disequilibrium in the developing countries during recent transition or reform periods. The level of the exchange rate and its misalignment can have significant impacts on agricultural policy measures such as the Producer Support Estimates (PSEs). However, little efforts have been made to explicitly take into account the issue of exchange rate misalignment. In the conventional PSE studies the prevailing actual (nominal) exchange rates are usually used. There is general agreement that the use of actual exchange rates may introduce a bias in the PSE calculations, and that this bias can be substantial when the actual rates are significantly out of equilibrium, but there is much less agreement on the most appropriate alternative. This dissertation proposes a theoretical and an empirical model for estimating equilibrium exchange rates. Within the context of these models, the equilibrium exchange rates are argued to be determined by a group of real economic fundamentals. These fundamentals within this study include technological progress (Balassa-Samuelson effect), levels of government expenditure, world interest rate, net capital inflows, terms of trade, and openness of the economy. Base on various time series techniques and using data from India and China, sensible long-run relationships are identified between the real exchange rate and these economic fundamentals. The long-run co-integrating relationships are used to derive the equilibrium exchange rates and to gauge corresponding misalignments for the currencies in the two countries. The relevance and usefulness of the exchange rate equilibrium and disequilibrium in the calculation of the PSEs for India and China are then discussed. Results from the commodity-specific measures including the Market Price Support (MPS) and the PSE show that agricultural support levels are quite sensitive to alternative exchange rate assumptions. Specifically, exchange rate misalignments have either amplified or counteracted the direct effect on agriculture from sectoral-specific policies. With a few commodity exceptions such an indirect effect in both countries is relatively small in magnitude and dominated by the direct effect. This is also the case when the indirect effect rises substantially as a result of more misaligned exchange rates. Counterfactual MPS measure calculated assuming the exchange rate is in equilibrium with different exchange rate pass-through is also presented. It is shown that when no exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices occurs, the transfer of the indirect effect of exchange rate misalignment into the counterfactual MPS is full. But when there is exchange rate pass-through, even though partially, the transfer of indirect effect is significantly smaller. Results based on the commodity-specific PSE show that the exchange rate effect also depends on the relative importance of different PSE components. In addition to a positive impact on the direct effects measured by commodity-specific PSE compared to those measured by commodity-specific MPS, the increasing share of budgetary expenditures in India's agricultural support in recent years has resulted in more pronounced indirect effects. For China, the exchange rate effects are more similar between the PSE and the MPS measures at the commodity level because of the dominance of the MPS component relative to the budgetary payments in the PSEs. Moving from commodity-specific to aggregate measures, one can observe a similar pattern of agricultural support. However, the exchange rate effect measured by the total PSE appears to be more important: it becomes several times larger in magnitude than the direct effect in periods of severe exchange rate misalignment. The exchange rate effect when the PSE is "scaled up" from covered commodities to an estimate for the total agricultural sector is also demonstrated even though the assumption imposed by scaling-up may be unrealistic if price support is concentrated among those products included in the analysis. Since the commodity coverage in both countries tends to be incomplete and the scaling-up procedure leads to a total MPS component of greater magnitude, larger exchange rate effects are found in the scaled-up than the non-scaled-up version of the total PSEs. The impact of scaling-up on the indirect effect is proportional to the share of covered commodities in the total value of agricultural production. Again for the PSEs at both the commodity and aggregate levels, the counter factual measures indicate a full transfer of indirect effect of exchange rate when no exchange rate pass-through is assumed. A large portion of the indirect effect disappears when incomplete exchange rate pass-through is assumed resulting in a smaller transfer of the effect to the counter factual PSEs. / Ph. D.