O objetivo deste trabalho é identificar padrões nos desvios da Lei do Preço Único. Utilizando dados desagregados nacionais e internacionais do período 1998-2008, aplicaram-se duas metodologias distintas: i) análise de componentes principais; e ii) estimador group mean Fully Modified OLS para painel proposto por Pedroni (2000). A análise de componentes principais facilita a identificação de padrões na variação de uma quantidade grande de dados e, o estimador group mean FMOLS permite estimar a relação de longo prazo existente entre os preços de um mesmo produto, cotados na mesma moeda, praticados em mercados distintos. Os resultados obtidos indicam que o câmbio é o principal responsável pelos desvios da Lei do Preço Único. Ademais, os resultados sugerem a existência de uma relação fraca entre os preços de um mesmo bem, cotados em Reais, mas comercializados nos mercados brasileiro e americano. / The main goal of this essay is to identify patterns in deviation from the law of one price. Using disaggregated data from Brazil and USA for the period 1998-2008, we applied two different methodologies: i) principal component analysis and ii) panel group mean Fully Modified OLS estimator proposed by Pedroni (2000). The principal component analysis facilitates the identification of patterns in the variation of a large amount of data, while the group mean FMOLS estimates the long run relationship between prices of the same good, quoted in the same currency, charged in separated markets. The results indicate that the exchange rate is the main responsible for deviations from the law of one price. Moreover, the results suggest the existence of a weak relationship between the prices of the same good, quoted in Reais, but sold in the Brazilian and American markets.

Thesis advisor: Robert G. Murphy / This paper examines the impact of the fixed exchange rate policy and the undervaluation of the Chinese currency (Renminbi) on the U.S.-China bilateral trade balance. Due to China's fixed exchange rate policy during the last decade, many have suspected that the Renminbi has been undervalued, and that this undervaluation has contributed to the expansion of the U.S. trade deficit. Based on previous studies, the first part of this paper explores Chinese economic policy and the possible consequences of the fixed exchange rate and the undervaluation of the Renminbi. The second part of the paper examines the following through empirical analysis: (1) the misalignment of the Renminbi through the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approach, (2) the relationship between the real exchange rate of the Renminbi and the U.S.-China bilateral trade balance and (3) the relationship between the undervaluation and the US bilateral trade deficit with China. The results indicate that the undervaluation of the Renminbi is neither substantial nor permanent. Moreover, the devalued Renminbi does not significantly increase China's trade surplus with the United States. The U.S. bilateral trade deficit with China is not permanently adversely affected by Renminbi undervaluation. / Thesis (BA) — Boston College, 2007. / Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: International Studies. / Discipline: College Honors Program.

Introduction – The introduction gives background to exchange rate volatility and the negative effects on economic growth that emerges when the exchange rate volatility is high.  Exchange rate volatility can affect economic growth in different ways such as establishing trade barriers or investment uncertainty. Previous studies have become quite outdated and the studies that have focused around the EMU have only compared smaller economies, hence this paper investigates the topic for developed economies and with new up-to-date data. The paper also examines two different types of exchange rate volatility, effective nominal exchange rate volatility and nominal exchange rate volatility to test if the choice of exchange rate volatility has an impact on the results. The sample for the paper contains the 36 OECD countries and the time period is 2000-2016.   Purpose – The purpose of this study is to explore how exchange rate volatility affects growth for the OECD countries. The paper also looks at what the effect of adopting the Euro as a primary currency has been for the countries in the OECD sample when looking at the exchange rate volatility and economic growth. Method – This study is conducted with a quantitative methodology, investigating a sample of 36 countries over 17 time periods from 2000-2016. The effect from exchange rate volatility on growth is analyzed through a content analysis and four panel-data regressions. This study also introduces a causality test to see if the exchange rate affects the economic growth or if economic growth affects the exchange rate volatility. Conclusion – The paper finds that both measures of exchange rate volatility have a negative effect on economic growth. There is also evidence that adopting the Euro as your currency for the time period has been negative for economic growth. Regarding the causality between exchange rate volatility and economic growth the paper finds evidence for a bidirectional causality, meaning that exchange rate volatility affects economic growth and economic growth affects exchange rate volatility.

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La thèse comporte deux parties. Dans la première partie (Chapitres 1 et 2), un examen des déterminants des interventions officielles sur le marché des changes est proposée. Dans la second partie (Chapitres 3 et 4), c'est la problématique des interventions dites « secrètes » qui est étudiée. Chapitre 1: « Talks, financial operations or both » Ce chapitre propose une nouvelle approche aux fonctions de réaction permettant d’examiner, dans un même modèle, les déterminants des différents types d’interventions (les interventions effectives et les interventions orales). Le modèle permet de mieux comprendre les choix stratégiques des autorités (opérations financières ou simple politique de communication) et d’en évaluer le degré de substituabilité ou de complémentarité. Chapitre 2 : « The institutional organization underlying interventions » La structure institutionnelle sous-jacente au processus d’intervention (interactions entre le Ministère des finances et la banque centrale) est explicitement incorporée dans le modèle proposé dans ce chapitre. Cette approche permet d’évaluer, dans quelle mesure, le Ministère des finances (l’autorité responsable de la politique de change), en intervenant sur le marché, internalise les objectifs de la banque centrale(l’agent du Ministère pour l’implémentation des ordres d’intervention). Chapitre 3 : « The secrecy puzzle » Ce chapitre propose une évaluation empirique des différents arguments théoriques expliquant le recours aux interventions secrètes. Le travail repose sur l’examen économétrique d’une fonction de stratégie, dans laquelle, des déterminants relatifs à la décision d’intervenir secrètement d’une part et, d’autre part, des déterminants relatifs à la détection des interventions par le marché sont incorporés. Chapitre 4 : « A unified approach to interventions » Un modèle unique, permettant d’expliquer les trois étapes du processus d’intervention, est proposé dans ce chapitre. Ces trois étapes sont relatives (i) au choix d’intervenir, (ii) au choix d’intervenir de façon secrète et (iii) à la perception des interventions par le marché. Grâce à l’inclusion de déterminants spécifiques pour ces différentes étapes, cette approche multidimensionnelle permet d’appréhender leurs interrelations et, donc, de mieux comprendre les différents arbitrages réalisés par les autorités lorsqu’elles décident d’intervenir.

In this paper, we use the Bai and Perron (1988, 2003) methodology to test for multiple structural breaks in the real exchange rate for 8 countries within Asia Pacific. We find extensive evidence of structural breaks in the real exchange rates. The Bai and Perron (1998, 2003) consider the estimation of multiple structural shifts in a linear model estimated by least-squares. They propose some tests for structural changes for the case with no trending regressors and a selection procedure based on a sequence of tests to estimate consistently the number of changes and break date. Also this paper apply Elliott and Müller (2003) method in order to test for stability of the estimated regression parameters with structural breaks. When comparing two test results, we find that the test conclusions is with little difference . Within those 8 countries including Japan, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan , The processing result with Bai and Perron test with structural breaks, we find that real exchange rates of 4 countries have three structural breaks, 2 countries have two structural breaks, and other two countries has one structural break. Also we apply Elliott and Müller test , the result we got is that has a structural break of real exchange rate exist within 7 countries. Only one country has no structural break. According to the results which we applied those tests, There do exist some structural break under the impacts of some financial crisis and important events which , such as The Second Oil Chsis ( 1979), Plaza Accord (1985), Asia Financial Crisis (1997).

This paper examines the explanatory variables that can affect the real exchange rate (RER). It aims at investigating the way in which RER (real exchange rate) misalignment relates to the Thai economy in regarding the financial crisis, capital control policy imposed by the central Bank of Thailand (BOT), and import/export. The RER (real exchange rate) at the equilibrium level will be estimated using the behavioral effective exchange rate model (BEER model). RER (real exchange rate) misalignment is observed through comparing the calculated RER (real exchange rate) and the estimated RER (real exchange rate) in the long run equilibrium. Using data from year 1993Q1 to 2010Q4, it can be observed the direction in which each main economic factors affecting RER (real exchange rate). The result reveals the RER (real exchange rate) misalignment; overvaluation in the period before 1997 Asian financial crisis and before US subprime crisis in 2008. These misalignments of RER (real exchange rate) correspond to the intervention from BOT. With RER (real exchange rate) misalignment, the impact on import/export sector plays vital role towards criteria of policy selection.

An overview of the theoretical literature for the last two decades suggests that there is no clear-cut relationship one can pin down between exchange rate volatility and trade flows. Analytical results are based on specific assumptions and only hold in certain cases. Especially, the impact of exchange rate volatility on export and import activity investigated separately leads also to dissimilar conclusions among countries studied. The general presumption is that an increase in exchange rate volatility will have an adverse effect on trade flows and consequently, the overall heath of the world economy. However, neither theoretical models nor empirical studies provide us with a definitive answer, leaving obtained results highly ambiguous and inconsistent (Baum and Caglayan, 2006). We purposed to empirically investigate trade effects of exchange rate fluctuations in Sweden from the perspective of export and import in this research. The data comprises period from January 1993 to December 2006, where export and import volumes are considered from the point of their determinants, including exchange rate volatility, which has been measured through EGARCH model. The results for the case of Sweden show that short run dynamics of volatility negatively associated with both export and import, whereas considered from the case of previous period volatility it exhibits positive relationship. These results are consistent with the most findings of prior studies, where the relationship remained ambiguous.

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Abstract The goal of this investigation is based on the Taiwan seafood industry development and its critical issues. In 2004, I have personally established a joint venture between a Japanese company-HANWA and our company-LUXE in developing a market for Saury fish,eel an Tailapia. 1.Using long-term relationship and trust between companies to establish a business relationship. 2.Both agreeing to use the new brand in market and good quality .The total sale for 2004 on Saury fish reached 720 tons,in our corperation. 3.Establishing a set price for the raw materials, processing rate,processing expenses, and exchange rate are the main factors of setting the price of the product itself. Therefore, obtaining the highest profit between the two companies. 4.Utilizing the Taiwanese seafood products¡¦ advantage, we focus on the most profitable and suitable production of goods based on the needs of nearby countries, and their influence on the market in all aspects.