Net energy exporting countries (NEECs) and net energy importing countries (NEICs) depend on each other for mutual gains. However, NEICs pursue strategic policies to reduce consumption of energy from conventional sources and increase that of renewable energy in order to attain energy security and macro environmental and carbon accountability. On the other hand, NEECs such as Nigeria depend heavily on oil and gas exports to NEICs to generate revenue. As a result of this inter-dependent relationship, this PhD project adopts a dependency theory and strategic issue analysis framework to underpin the study. Accordingly, the study approach is founded on the ideas of pluralism as a social reality and adopted pragmatism as the research approach. Consistent with these approaches, the study was undertaken by analysing both secondary and primary data, including macro-economic statistics of annual time-series dataset (1980-2014) and semi-structured interviews respectively. The quantitative part of the project used Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds testing approach. This method was used to investigate and analyse the effect of renewable energy consumption and carbon emissions reduction on Nigeria’s oil and gas exports. The qualitative part involved interviews with twenty senior government officials in Nigeria from six selected Federal Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs), representatives of civil society groups and academicians, to support the quantitative results and answer certain research questions. The short-run quantitative results and qualitative findings show that renewable energy consumption in developed NEICs affects Nigeria’s oil and gas exports. However, the reverse holds true for emerging NEICs. Both the quantitative results and the qualitative findings show that carbon emissions reduction in developed NEICs affects Nigerian oil and gas exports in the long run. Also, the quantitative results show that renewable energy consumption in developed and emerging NEICs does not affect Nigerian oil and gas exports in the long run. However, the qualitative findings only support the quantitative results for emerging NEICs but do not support those of developed NEICs. Similarly, the qualitative findings indicate that other external and internal factors such as discovery of shale oil and gas; improvement in energy efficient technologies; the use of long-term contract in other NEECs; stringent nature of the Nigerian Content Law and lack of passage of the Petroleum Industry Bill amongst others currently contribute in affecting Nigeria’s oil and gas exports. Moreover, the qualitative findings show that global energy transition has an impact on the Nigeria’s oil and gas revenue, savings made to the Nigerian Sovereign Wealth Fund, budget financing and will continue to affect Nigerian revenue and budget if the economy remains undiversified. Finally, the qualitative findings indicate that global energy transition has negatively affected Foreign Direct Investment flow into Nigerian petroleum industry and discoveries of new oil and gas reserves. These findings have several implications. Firstly, Nigerian oil and gas exports are affected by the carbon emissions control regime, which makes future oil and gas revenues uncertain; thereby putting pressure on budget financing and socio-economic growth and development. On this note, there is the need for Nigeria to take cautionary position in the global climate change debate in order not to adversely affect the country’s economic interest. Secondly, the consumption of energy from renewable sources in both developed and emerging NEICs is an opportunity for Nigeria to export not only its conventional energy but also renewable energy if commercially harnessed. This suggests that Nigerian should also invest heavily in renewable energy production. Thirdly, the major findings of this study provide evidence in support of the relevance of dependency theory and strategic issue analysis framework within the context of energy transition in NEICs on one hand, and Nigerian oil and gas exports to these countries on the other. This implies the need for Nigeria to focus on developing internal market trajectories to increase domestic utilisation of its conventional energy rather than being dependent on external markets for the sale of the nation’s energy resources.

Submitted by Daniele Santos (danielesantos.htl@gmail.com) on 2015-12-22T14:02:29Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Jeffrey.pdf: 11824596 bytes, checksum: e53f7ce72384381247ec95015dbe102d (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Janete de Oliveira Feitosa (janete.feitosa@fgv.br) on 2015-12-29T12:29:01Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Jeffrey.pdf: 11824596 bytes, checksum: e53f7ce72384381247ec95015dbe102d (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2016-01-06T17:15:02Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Jeffrey.pdf: 11824596 bytes, checksum: e53f7ce72384381247ec95015dbe102d (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-01-06T17:15:15Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Jeffrey.pdf: 11824596 bytes, checksum: e53f7ce72384381247ec95015dbe102d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-10-26 / How have shocks to supply and demand affected global oil prices; and what are key policy implications following the resurgence of oil production in the United States? Highlights: − The recent collapse in global oil prices was dominated by oversupply. − The future of tight oil in the United States is vulnerable to obstacles beyond oil prices. − Opinions on tight oil from the Top 25 think tank organizations are considered. Global oil prices have fallen more than fifty percent since mid-2014. While price corrections in the global oil markets resulted from multiple factors over the past twelve months, surging tight oil production from the United States was a key driver. Tight oil is considered an unconventional or transitional oil source due to its location in oil-bearing shale instead of conventional oil reservoirs. These qualities make tight oil production fundamentally different from regular crude, posing unique challenges. This case study examines these challenges and explores how shocks to supply and demand affect global oil prices while identifying important policy considerations. Analysis of existing evidence is supported by expert opinions from more than one hundred scholars from top-tier think tank organizations. Finally, implications for United States tight oil production as well as global ramifications of a new low price environment are explored.

L’objectif de la thèse est d’étudier le lien entre le prix du pétrole et les performances macroéconomiques dans les pays exportateurs de pétrole. En adoptant une perspective d’économétrie appliquée, nous recourons à plusieurs techniques récentes de l’économétrie des données de panel. Pour cela trois thèmes sont envisagés. Nous identifions d’abord les fondamentaux de la croissance économique dans ces pays exportateurs de pétrole. En tenant compte du caractère dynamique de la croissance, nos résultats mettent en avant le rôle clé de la rente pétrolière dans l’explication de la croissance économique de ces pays. L’étude des interactions met en évidence qu’à court terme, un choc pétrolier positif améliore le compte courant et bénéficie à la croissance économique mais entraîne aussi une appréciation du taux de change dans les pays exportateurs de pétrole. Pour ce qui concerne les interactions hors prix du pétrole, celles-ci sont limitées. Nous montrons ensuite que les fondamentaux du taux de change effectif réel des pays exportateurs de pétrole reposent principalement sur les termes de l’échange, la productivité relative et les dépenses publiques. L’examen des mésalignements de change montre l’existence d’une forte hétérogénéité entre les pays étudiés. Nous montrons que le régime de change fixe est plus approprié pour diminuer l’ampleur des mésalignements dans les pays exportateurs de pétrole. / The aim of the thesis is to study the link between oil prices and macroeconomic performances in oil exporting countries. Adopting an applied econometrics approach, we use recent techniques of panel data econometrics. For this, three themes are envisaged. We identify first the main determinants of economic growth of these countries. Considering the dynamic nature of growth, our results highlight the key role of the oil rent in explaining economic growth in these countries. The study of macroeconomic interactions highlights that, in the short term, a positive oil price shock improves the current account and boosts economic growth but also leads to an appreciation of the exchange rate in oil exporting countries. Regarding the interaction between macroeconomic variables excluding oil prices, we find that they are relatively weak. We then show that the fundamentals of the real effective exchange rates in oil exporting countries are mainly the terms of trade, the relative productivity and government expenditures. The study of exchange rate misalignments shows the existence of a strong heterogeneity among the countries studied. However, our investigations highlight the key role of exchange rate regimes in explaining the magnitude of these exchange rates misalignments. In particular, we show that the fixed exchange rate regime is more appropriate to reduce the magnitude of the exchange rate misalignments in oil-exporting countries.