This paper is a first attempt to empirically evaluate some competing hypotheses for the Austrian growth performance. We find that the real appreciations, gross investment, a low duration of unemployment and high youth employment exhibit a significant influence on economic growth. This validates the hard currency policy hypothesis, the macroeconomic management hypothesis, and the microinstitutions hypothesis, whilst all other fail according to this exercise. In particular, we find the Schulmeister-thesis of loose money and the deficit spending hypothesis are even counterfactual. Summarizing, we find that economic policy had its share in promoting growth in the Austrian economy. As a byproduct from our analysis, we find that low levels of unemployment have a significant and positive impact on the growth rate of real GDP, which calls for further theoretical research in this direction. (author's abstract) / Series: Working Papers Series "Growth and Employment in Europe: Sustainability and Competitiveness"

In extremely preterm infants, acute abdominal emergencies are fortunately less common with improving care. Spontaneous intestinal perforation and necrotizing enterocolitis are conditions where emergency surgery is most often needed. Conservative medical management and placement of temporary drain are often used in the initial management. Internal hernia (IH) is an uncommon cause of bowel obstruction in neonates, is difficult to diagnose and unfortunately are found only at autopsy. The presentation in preterm infants, distinction between these conditions, and the need for early diagnosis of IH are discussed.

This study computed trends in extreme precipitation events of Florida for 1950-2010. Hourly aggregated rainfall data from 24 stations of the National Climatic Data Centre were analyzed to derive time-series of extreme rainfalls for 12 durations, ranging from 1 hour to 7 day. Non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen Approach were applied to detect the significance of trends in annual maximum rainfalls, number of above threshold events and average magnitude of above threshold events for four common analysis periods. Trend Free Pre-Whitening (TFPW) approach was applied to remove the serial correlations and bootstrap resampling approach was used to detect the field significance of trends. The results for annual maximum rainfall revealed dominant increasing trends at the statistical significance level of 0.10, especially for hourly events in longer period and daily events in recent period. The number of above threshold events exhibited strong decreasing trends for hourly durations in all time periods.

(None) Technical Summary of Thesis: The topic of my thesis is currency crisis. Currency crises have been a recurrent feature of the international economy from the invention of paper money. They are not confined to particular economies or specific region. They take place in developed, emerging, and developing countries and are spread all over the globe. Countries that experience currency crises face economic losses that can be huge and disruptive. However, the exacted toll is not only financial and economic, but also human, social, and political. It is clear that the currency crisis is a real threat to financial stability and economic prosperity. The main objective of this thesis is to analyze the determinants of currency crises for twenty OECD countries and South Africa from 1970 through 1998. It systematically examines the role of economic fundamentals and contagion in the origins of currency crises and empirically attempts to identify the channels through which the crises are being transmitted. It also examines the links between the incidence of currency crises and the choice of exchange rate regimes as well as the impact of capital market liberalization policies on the occurrence of currency crises. The first chapter identifies the episodes of currency crisis in our data set. Determining true crisis periods is a vital step in the empirical studies and has direct impact on the reliability of their estimations and the relevant policy implications. We define a period as a crisis episode when the Exchange Market Pressure (EMP) index, which consists of changes in exchange rates, reserves, and interest rates, exceeds a threshold. In order to minimize the concerns regarding the accuracy of identified crisis episodes, we apply extreme value theory, which is a more objective approach compared to other methods. In this chapter, we also select the reference country, which a country’s currency pressure index should be built around, in a more systematic way rather than by arbitrary choice or descriptive reasoning. The second chapter studies the probability of a currency exiting a tranquil state into a crisis state. There is an extensive literature on currency crises that empirically evaluate the roots and causes of the crises. Despite the interesting results of the current empirical literature, only very few of them account for the influence of time on the probability of crises. We use duration models that rigorously incorporate the time factor into the likelihood functions and allow us to investigate how the amount of time that a currency has already spent in the tranquil state affects the stability of a currency. Our findings show that high values of volatility of unemployment rates, inflation rates, contagion factors (which mostly work through trade channels), unemployment rates, real effective exchange rate, trade openness, and size of economy increases the hazard of a crisis. We make use of several robustness checks, including running our models on two different crisis episodes sets that are identified based on monthly and quarterly type spells. The third chapter examines the links between the incidence of currency crises and the choice of exchange rate regimes as well as the impact of capital market liberalization policies on the occurrence of currency crises. As in our previous paper, duration analysis is our methodology to study the probability of a currency crisis occurrence under different exchange rate regimes and capital mobility policies. The third chapter finds that there is a significant link between the choice of exchange rate regime and the incidence of currency crises in our sample. Nevertheless, the results are sensitive to the choice of the de facto exchange rate system. Moreover, in our sample, capital control policies appear to be helpful in preventing low duration currency crises. The results are robust to a wide variety of sample and models checks.

Currently, the accurate prediction of the impact of an extreme wave on infrastructure located near shore is difficult to assess. There is a lack of established methods to accurately quantify these impacts. Extreme waves, such as tsunamis generate, through breaking, extremely powerful hydraulic bores that impact and significantly damage coastal structures and buildings located close to the shoreline. The damage induced by such hydraulic bores is often due to structural failure. Examples of devastating coastal disasters are the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, 2005 Hurricane Katrina and most recently, the 2011 Tohoku Japan Tsunami. As a result, more advanced research is needed to estimate the magnitude of forces exerted on structures by such bores. This research presents results of a numerical model based on the Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) method which is used to simulate the impact of extreme hydrodynamic forces on shore protection walls. Typically, fluids are modeled numerically based on a Lagrangian approach, an Eulerian approach or a combination of the two. Many of the common problems that arise from using more traditional techniques can be avoided through the use of SPH-based models. Such challenges include the model computational efficiency in terms of complexity of implementation. The SPH method allows water particles to be individually modeled, each with their own characteristics, which then accurately depicts the behavior and properties of the flow field. An open source code, known as SPHysics, was used to run the simulations presented in this thesis. Several cases analysed consist of hydraulic bores impacting a flat vertical wall as well as a sloping seawall. The analysis includes comparisons of the numerical results with published experimental data. The model is shown to accurately reproduce the formation of solitary waves as well as their propagation and breaking. The impacting bore profiles as well as the resulting pressures are also efficiently simulated using the model.

In this thesis, we introduce EPOSIC channels, a class of SU(2) -covariant quantum channels. For each of them, we give a Stinespring representation, a Kraus representation, its Choi matrix, a complementary channel, and its dual map. We show that these channels are the extreme points of all SU(2) -irreducibly covariant channels. As an application of these channels to the theory of quantum information, we study the minimal output entropy of EPOSIC channels, and show that a large class of these channels is a potential example of violating the well-known problem, the additivity problem. We determine the cases where their minimal output entropy is not zero, and obtain some partial results on the fulfillment of their entanglement breaking property. We find a bound of the minimal output entropy of the tensor product of two SU(2) -irreducibly covariant channels. We also get an example of a positive map that is not completely positive.

Natural disasters usually occur without any warning. They can leave trail of destruction and cause much tragedy. We are at a time when we witness fast technological advances; hence, we need to apply the force of scientific advancements to decrease economic losses and the number of human deaths. Tsunami is one of the extreme environmental events that leaves nothing but a path of death and destruction, and as a result, it is essential to understand this phenomenon and identify the mitigation strategies. Several mitigation strategies have been proposed so far; however, more investigations are still required to achieve an acceptable solution. Researchers around the world are studying different aspects of this phenomenon. One of the proposed solutions that has received much attention is designing tsunami-resistant structures which can withstand the force of a tsunami bore. Various studies have been done so far to understand the base shear force of tsunami bore on structures. The focus of this thesis is to improve and better understand the characteristics of the tsunami base shear forces on structures. Hence, in this thesis, two numerical studies were proposed and performed with the main goal of estimating the total tsunami forces on structure under two different conditions. Those include structures with various cross sections, as well as positioning a mitigation wall at an appropriate location relative to the structure. The first study focused on developing a numerical model to study the relationship between tsunami forces and the geometry of the structure. The main goal of this study was to define a numerical model capable of simulating this case precisely. To ensure the accuracy of the model, a comparison was carried out between the results of the numerical model and experimental test performed at the NRC-CHC (National Research Council- Canadian Hydraulics Center) laboratory in Ottawa, Canada and Université Catholique de Louvain (UCL), Belgium, which revealed a very good agreement between the results of the experimental test and numerical model. Further, the validated model was applied to investigate the tsunami force on structures with various cross sections. The second study focus was on developing a numerical model for understanding the role of mitigation wall (a novel idea proposed as a mitigation strategy by the second author of technical paper 2) on reducing the exerted force of tsunami on structures. After developing various models and applying several turbulence models, a valuable result was obtained which demonstrated that a Large Eddy Simulation (LES) model seems to be an excellent approach for predicting the tsunami forces on the structure with a mitigation wall in the direction of the flow. The results of this study will be used to better estimate the tsunami forces exerted on coastal structures which will light the path to the main goal of designing tsunami resistant-structures.

Depuis ses origines, le film de montagne est un genre filmique qui recoupe la civilisation occidentale. Il s'inscrit dans l'évolution historique de la montagne et contribue à la reconstruction médiatisée de l'imaginaire ancestral, notamment au travers d'une révolution qui mêle un large faisceau de perceptions et de projections. Le genre peut être entendu comme un objet occidental, créé et façonné selon des codes particuliers, contrairement à d'autres sociétés qui ont certes représenté la montagne, mais de manière différente. L'ancrage du genre est d'abord européo-occidental puis occidental, et montre une prédilection pour la représentation de certaines valeurs civilisationnelles fortes. Il s'en suit une uniformisation des thématiques et codes représentés à l'écran, de l'ascension au capitalisme en passant par l'aventure « extrême » exportée à l'international. / Since its origins, the mountain film is a Genre in connection with the Western civilization. It fits into the historical evolution of the mountain and helps mediated reconstruction of ancestral imaginary, especially through a revolution that mixes a wide ensemble of perceptions and projections. The mountain film can be understood as a Western object, created and shaped by specific codes, unlike other societies that show the mountain in different ways. The genre take place in western Europe, since in western civilization, and shows a predilection for the representation of strong civilizational values. It follows a standardization of themes and codes shown on films : ascent, capitalism, « extreme » adventure exported internationally.

Depuis le début de la décennie 2000, le marché du maïs connaît un changement profond. D'une part, le prix enregistre une volatilité extrême sans précédent. D'autre part, ce marché bénéficie d'un déferlement massif des investisseurs financiers. Il offre des opportunités d'investissements financiers rentables en raison des crises récurrentes sur le marché boursier. Il est intéressant pour des investisseurs (spéculateurs, fondamentalistes, arbitragistes) d'avoir connaissance des résultats d'analyse des variations extrêmes du prix du marché du maïs. La maîtrise des variations extrêmes du prix permet une meilleure gestion du risque. Des études ont déjà été menées dans cette direction en utilisant des techniques du type « VaR ». Cependant, les différents modèles de gestion du risque par la VaR souffrent de certaines limites. Ils supposent l'hypothèse de la normalité des distributions. Or, la distribution des rendements du maïs montre des valeurs extrêmes. Cela ne permet pas une bonne appréciation du risque. Afin de contribuer à l'analyse des variations extrêmes de prix sur le marché du maïs, nous faisons appel aux modèles GARCH et à la théorie des valeurs extrêmes. Puis, dans un cadre multi-varié, le lien entre rendements spots et futures exprime le degré de la dépendance. Il permet ainsi d'analyser l'effet de la spéculation. Pour cela, nous utilisons la théorie des valeurs extrêmes couplée à la mesure de la dépendance qu'on appelle « copule » pour cerner les mouvements extrêmes des variations du prix au delà d'un seuil. En effet, la théorie des copules propose toute une gamme de fonctions capable de mesurer la dépendance asymétrique aux queues de la distribution des rendements spots et futures du maïs. / Since the early 2000s, the corn market is undergoing a profound change. On the one hand, the price has experienced unprecedented extreme volatility. Moreover, this market has a massive outpouring of financial investors. The corn market offers profitable financial investments due to recurrent crises in the stock market opportunities. It is interesting for investors (speculators, fundamentalists, arbitrageurs) to be aware of the analysis of extreme price changes in corn results. The mastery of extreme price changes provides better risk management. Studies have already been conducted in this direction by using techniques such as "VaR". However, the different models of risk management VaR suffer from certain limitations. They assume the assumption of normality of distributions. However, the distribution of return corn shows extreme values. This does not allow a proper assessment of risk. To contribute to the analysis of extreme price changes in the corn market, we use the GARCH models and the theory of extreme values. Then, in a multi-varied context, the link between returns and future spots expresses the degree of dependence. It allows analyzing the effect of speculation. We use extreme value theory coupled to the measure of dependence called "copula" to identify extreme movements of price changes beyond a threshold. Indeed, copula theory offers a range of features that can measure the asymmetric dependence tails of the distribution of spot return and futures of corn.

Connaître la probabilité d'occurrence des aléas océano-météorologiques extrêmes est fondamental pour prévenir les risques de submersion marine en zone côtière ou concevoir des aménagements côtiers, portuaires ou des plate-formes offshore. Notamment, le concept de niveau de retour est fréquemment utilisé en ingénierie côtière pour dimensionner des ouvrages de protection. Ces niveaux, dont les périodes de retour d'intérêt se situent généralement entre 100 et 1000 ans, sont habituellement estimés par une analyse statistique locale, à partir de données observées en un site unique. Cependant, la période d'observation est généralement limitée, de sorte que les incertitudes associées aux niveaux de retour élevés sont importantes. L'analyse régionale représente une solution possible pour réduire les incertitudes inhérentes aux analyses locales. Le principe est d'exploiter l'information de sites d'observation provenant d'une région homogène, où les extrêmes sont supposés avoir un comportement probabiliste similaire. L'analyse régionale peut ainsi estimer les niveaux de retour de manière plus fiable qu'une analyse locale. Cependant, son application dans le domaine maritime étant relativement limitée et récente, différentes questions méthodologiques de meurent non-Résolues, comme la formation des régions homogènes ou le traitement de la dépendance entre sites. L'objectif scientifique de la thèse est donc d'approfondir certains points méthodologiques de l'analyse régionale, dans le cadre des aléas maritimes extrêmes. Les points suivants sont abordés en particulier :• Échantillonnage des extrêmes pour l'analyse régionale, à partir des tempêtes détectées via une procédure de declustering spatio-Temporel.• Formation de régions homogènes à partir d'une méthode basée sur l'identification des empreintes typiques des tempêtes.• Prise en compte de la dépendance entre sites d'observation, à travers la construction d'un modèle permettant par exemple d'évaluer la durée effective régionale d'observation ou la période de retour régionale d'une tempête.• Spécification et estimation de la loi régionale, avec incorporation des co-variables influentes, comme la saison d'occurrence ou la direction de provenance pour les vagues.• Comparaison entre analyses locale et régionale, notamment à travers les incertitudes sur les estimations des extrêmes et la capacité à modéliser les horsains présumés.Ces aspects sont illustrés sur des données de hauteurs significatives de vagues et de surcotes de pleine mer, dans la zone Atlantique Nord-Est, Manche et Mer du Nord.Parallèlement, l'objectif applicatif de ces travaux est de contribuer à garantir la sûreté des ouvrages EDF contre le risque de submersion marine. Ceci peut être réalisé grâce à l'exploration de nouvelles techniques d'estimation des aléas maritimes extrêmes telles que l'analyse régionale, qui permet notamment une meilleure prise en compte des horsains. / The knowledge of the probability of occurrence of oceano-Meteorological extremes is essential to prevent risks of coastal flooding or to build coastal protections or off-Shore structures. In particular, the concept of return level is frequently used in coastal engineering to design protection structures. These levels, whose return periods of interest generally lie between 100 and 1000 years, are usually estimated by a local statistical analysis, from data observed at a unique site. However, the period of observation is generally limited, which can imply high uncertainties for high return levels. Regional frequency analysis is a possible solution to reduce uncertainties inherent to local analyses. The principle is to exploit the information of sites of observation from a homogeneous region, where extremes are supposed to share a similar probabilistic behavior. Thus, regional frequency analysis can estimate return levels more accurately than a local analysis. However, its application to the marine field being relatively limited and recent, several methodological questions are still unsolved, such as the formation of homogeneous regions or the dependence between sites. The scientific objective of this thesis is thus to develop some methodological points of regional frequency analysis, in the framework of extreme marine hazards. The following questions are tackled:• Sampling of extremes for regional analysis, from the storms detected through a spatiotemporal declustering procedure.• Formation of homogeneous regions from a method based on the identification of the typical storms footprints.• Consideration of the dependence between sites of observation, through the building of a model allowing, for example, to assess the regional effective duration or the regional return period of a storm.• Specification and estimation of the regional distribution, with the incorporation of influent covariables, such as the season of occurrence or the direction for waves.• Comparison between regional and local analyses, especially through the uncertainties on the estimated extremes and the ability to model the potential outliers. These aspects are illustrated on significant wave height data and skew surge data located in the Northeast Atlantic, the Eastern Channel and the North Sea. At the same time, the industrial objective of this work is to contribute to guarantee the safety of EDF structures against the risk of coastal flooding. This can be achieved through the exploration of new techniques of estimation of extreme marine hazards such as regional frequency analysis, which allows in particular a better representation of outliers