Technical advances in network communication systems (e.g. radio access networks) combined with evolving concepts based on virtualization (e.g. clouds), require new management algorithms in order to handle the increasing complexity in the network behavior and variability in the network environment. Current network management operations are primarily centralized and deterministic, and are carried out via automated scripts and manual interventions, which work for mid-sized and fairly static networks. The next generation of communication networks and systems will be of significantly larger size and complexity, and will require scalable and autonomous management algorithms in order to meet operational requirements on reliability, failure resilience, and resource-efficiency. A promising approach to address these challenges includes the development of probabilistic management algorithms, following three main design goals. The first goal relates to all aspects of scalability, ranging from efficient usage of network resources to computational efficiency. The second goal relates to adaptability in maintaining the models up-to-date for the purpose of accurately reflecting the network state. The third goal relates to reliability in the algorithm performance in the sense of improved performance predictability and simplified algorithm control. This thesis is about probabilistic approaches to fault management that follow the concepts of probabilistic network management (PNM). An overview of existing network management algorithms and methods in relation to PNM is provided. The concepts of PNM and the implications of employing PNM-algorithms are presented and discussed. Moreover, some of the practical differences of using a probabilistic fault detection algorithm compared to a deterministic method are investigated. Further, six probabilistic fault management algorithms that implement different aspects of PNM are presented. The algorithms are highly decentralized, adaptive and autonomous, and cover several problem areas, such as probabilistic fault detection and controllable detection performance; distributed and decentralized change detection in modeled link metrics; root-cause analysis in virtual overlays; event-correlation and pattern mining in data logs; and, probabilistic failure diagnosis. The probabilistic models (for a large part based on Bayesian parameter estimation) are memory-efficient and can be used and re-used for multiple purposes, such as performance monitoring, detection, and self-adjustment of the algorithm behavior. / <p>QC 20140509</p>

Rolling element bearings are a vital part in many rotating machinery, including vehicles. A defective bearing can be a symptom of other problems in the machinery and is due to a high failure rate. Early detection of bearing defects can therefore help to prevent malfunction which ultimately could lead to a total collapse. The thesis is done in collaboration with Scania that wants a better understanding of how external sensors such as accelerometers, can be used for condition monitoring in their gearboxes. Defective bearings creates vibrations with specific frequencies, known as Bearing Characteristic Frequencies, BCF [23]. A key component in the proposed method is based on identification and extraction of these frequencies from vibration signals from accelerometers mounted near the monitored bearing. Three solutions are proposed for automatic bearing fault detection. Two are based on data-driven classification using a set of machine learning methods called Support Vector Machines and one method using only the computed characteristic frequencies from the considered bearing faults. Two types of features are developed as inputs to the data-driven classifiers. One is based on the extracted amplitudes of the BCF and the other on statistical properties from Intrinsic Mode Functions generated by an improved Empirical Mode Decomposition algorithm. In order to enhance the diagnostic information in the vibration signals two pre-processing steps are proposed. Separation of the bearing signal from masking noise are done with the Cepstral Editing Procedure, which removes discrete frequencies from the raw vibration signal. Enhancement of the bearing signal is achieved by band pass filtering and amplitude demodulation. The frequency band is produced by the band selection algorithms Kurtogram and Autogram. The proposed methods are evaluated on two large public data sets considering bearing fault classification using accelerometer data, and a smaller data set collected from a Scania gearbox. The produced features achieved significant separation on the public and collected data. Manual detection of the induced defect on the outer race on the bearing from the gearbox was achieved. Due to the small amount of training data the automatic solutions were only tested on the public data sets. Isolation performance of correct bearing and fault mode among multiplebearings were investigated. One of the best trade offs achieved was 76.39 % fault detection rate with 8.33 % false alarm rate. Another was 54.86 % fault detection rate with 0 % false alarm rate.