Este trabalho tem como objetivo examinar os efeitos do desenvolvimento financeiro e das restrições financeiras nas decisões de investimento da firma considerando um conjunto de informações de 659 firmas brasileiras no período de 1998 a 2006. A investigação é realizada dentro de um contexto teórico e aplicado, considerando um modelo econométrico com dados longitudinais e assumindo que o desenvolvimento financeiro exerce impacto substancial nas restrições financeiras das firmas, o que está diretamente relacionado às suas decisões de investimento. Com o propósito de contribuir para a escassa literatura internacional e à inexistente literatura para o Brasil, este trabalho utilizou o índice KZ para classificação das firmas como financeiramente restritas e não restritas. Por meio do uso de dados macroeconômicos em uma análise microeconômica, empregou-se o modelo probabilístico logit para encontrar os principais fatores determinantes da probabilidade de restrição financeira das firmas brasileiras. Já para analisar a relação entre desenvolvimento financeiro, restrições financeiras e investimento da firma, estimou-se uma versão do modelo acelerador do investimento pelo método dos momentos generalizados (GMM) devido seu caráter dinâmico e à presença do problema de endogeneidade. Os principais resultados indicaram que, além dos fatores associados à estrutura financeira da firma, fatores como o nível de desenvolvimento financeiro e a taxa de juros de longo prazo têm influência sobre a probabilidade de restrição financeira da firma. Medindo-se a dependência das firmas por recursos internos por meio da sensibilidade do investimento ao fluxo de caixa, os resultados também indicaram que o desenvolvimento financeiro é mais importante para as firmas consideradas financeiramente restritas ao reduzir sua dependência por recursos internos, diminuindo seu grau de restrição financeira. Maiores níveis de desenvolvimento financeiro também se apresentaram associados a maiores taxas de investimento e a uma melhor alocação de capital no caso de firmas identificadas como financeiramente restritas. Esses resultados apresentaram-se robustos mesmo ao se controlar os resultados pela taxa de crescimento econômico, por diferentes variáveis de desenvolvimento financeiro e ao se classificar as firmas por intensidade de capital e taxa de investimento. / The aim of this work is to examine the effects of financial development and financial constraints on firm\'s investment decisions using data from 659 Brazilian firms over the 1998-2006 period. The research is conducted within a theoretical and applied context, considering an econometric model with longitudinal data and assuming that the financial development exerts a substantial impact on firms\' financial constraints, which is directly related to their investment decisions. With the aim of contributing to the scarce international literature and to the inexistent literature for Brazil, this study used the KZ index to classify firms as financially constrained and unconstrained. Through the use of macro data in a microeconomic analysis, the logit probability model was employed to find the main determinants of the financial constraint probability of Brazilian firms. To examine the relationship between financial development, financial constraints and firm\'s investment decisions, it was estimated a version of the accelerator model of investment by the generalized method of moments (GMM) due to its dynamic character and the presence of the endogeneity problem. The main results indicate that, beyond factors associated with the firm\'s financial structure, factors such as the financial development level and the long-term interest rate have influence on the likelihood of firm\'s financial constraint. Measuring the dependence of firms on internal resources by the sensitivity of investment to cash flow, the results also showed that financial development is more important for firms which are considered financially constrained by the fact that a higher level of financial development reduces the dependence on internal resources of these firms, decreasing their level of financial constraint. Higher levels of financial development were also associated with higher rates of investment and with a better allocation of capital when considering firms identified as financially constrained. These results were robust even when controlled by the economic growth rate, by different financial development variables and when firms were classified by capital intensity and investment rate.

Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2005

This study analyzes the relationship between financial development and income inequality by using panel data of 60 developing and developed countries for the period 2000-2010. We find evidence for the linear negative relationship between financial development and income inequality which asserts that financial development reduces income inequality. We also find evidence supporting Kuznets inverted u-shaped hypothesis on development-income inequality link, except that for the developed countries where we find evidence for u-shaped hypothesis. It is also concluded that the panel is stationary without unit root, indicating that shocks on income inequality is not persistent.

This study investigates the determinants of financial development and private sector credits for a panel of 85 developing and industrial countries using annual data from 1980 to 2006. The results from the panel cross-sectional fixed effects procedure suggest that an increase in the public sector credits and central government debt leads to a decrease in private sector credits in low income and lower middle income counties. For this group of countries, public sector credits, albeit leading to a financial crowding out, are found to be enhancing financial development. For the upper middle income and high income countries, private sector credits are found to increase with public sector credits and financial development and decrease with central government debt. Financial development is affected adversely from inflation and positively from real GDP and public sector credits in high income countries. In upper middle income countries both real GDP and credits to public sector affect financial development positively. In low income countries, on the other hand, public sector credits and inflation are correlated positively with financial development.

This thesis investigates the determinants of financial development in Turkey. Principle Component Analysis (PCA) is employed in order to examine the main determinants of financial sector development and shed light on the structure of the financial system in Turkey. The empirical studies on financial development suffer from the measurement problem. This study aims to remedy the measurement problem by providing proxies that explain different aspects of financial development more accurately than other proxies used in the extant literature. Hence, the present study constitutes a strong basis for studies that rely on measuring financial development in Turkey.

The economic literature posits that a well-functioning economy requires a well-regulated financial system, and a sound financial system is essential to the fundamentals of an economy, however, even the most influential economists disagree sharply about the role of the finance-growth relationship in economic development. One of the most important questions concerning financial openness is whether it spurs long-run economic growth, and if yes, do these benefits outweigh the risks for developing countries. In addition, the conventional economic theory often postulates that a more developed financial sector provides a productive ground for higher economic growth. Is financial development a major prerequisite for economic growth? Additionally, institutional quality has also received a considerable attention since it is thought of a significant channel in the financegrowth relationship. This thesis aims to investigate the links between financial integration, financial development, and growth, taking institutional quality and the level of the development of the economy into consideration. To this end, a large panel data set is used and panel data estimation techniques are employed. The results show that emerging economies benefit the most from financial openness regardless of any preconditions. On the other hand, developing economies should be cautious since financial openness may hinder growth unless institutional development is healed before financial openness policies take speed. Moreover, the results indicate that, financial development fosters growth and the level of institutional development is an important determinant of the finance-growth relationship in the overall.

This paper investigates the relationship between economic growth, and remittances, financial development, and globalization after controlling for different levels of international financial distress. We study four of the major remittances recipient countries individually over the period of 1976 to 2012 using an autoregressive distributed lag method (ARDL). The results show that in Mexico, Bangladesh, and India remittances work as a stabilizing factor on their economies. Significant results of a positive long run correlation between remittances and GDP levels are also found in the results of Bangladesh and Mexico. High levels of financial distress have a negative impact on GDP in Mexico. We conclude that the level of financial integration between economies affect how financial distress in one economy spills over to another. This paper also finds that in the short run when globalization increases, uncompetitive businesses are outrivaled in Mexico and in Bangladesh, due to big neighbors like the United States or China and India. For Bangladesh, the financial development is destabilizing in the short run, and in the long run it correlates negatively with GDP. For India, this study finds that higher levels of both financial development and globalization promote long term economic growth. For China, few conclusions are drawn.

This thesis consists of four essays on finance and the real economy. Chapter 1 studies the effect of banking crises on the composition of investment. It builds a partial equilibrium growth model with a banking sector and two types of investment projects: a safe, low return technology and an innovative, high productivity one. Investments in innovation are risky since they are subject to a liquidity cost which entrepreneurs cover by borrowing from the banking sector. When bank creditors are sufficiently pessimistic about the aggregate liquidity needs of the real sector, they will run on the bank and cause a credit freeze. This leads banks to tighten credit supply after the crisis, which decreases disproportionately investment in innovation and slows down economic growth. An empirical investigation, employing industry-level data on R&D investment around 13 recent banking crises, confirms this hypothesis. Industries that depend more on external finance, in more bank-based economies, invest disproportionately less in R&D following episodes of banking distress. These industries also have a relatively lower share of R&D in total investment, suggesting a shift in the composition of investment after the crisis. Such differential effects across sectors imply that the drop in R&D spending is, at least partially, the result of the contraction in credit supply.Chapter 2 studies the impact of coordination frictions in financial markets on the cost of capital. In the model, a financial intermediary seeks to raise funds to finance a risky capital-intensive project. Capital is owned by a large number of small investors, who observe noisy signals about the project's implementation cost. Employing a global games equilibrium refinement, we characterize a unique threshold equilibrium of the coordination game between investors. We then show that the relationship between the probability of success of the project and the rate of return on capital is non-monotonic. There exists a socially optimal price of capital, which maximizes the probability that the project is profitable. However, fee-maximizing intermediaries will generally set an interest rate that is higher than the socially optimal rate. The model best characterizes project finance investments funded through the bond market.Chapter 3 proposes a laboratory experiment to study the impact of partial deposit insurance schemes on the risk of deposit withdrawals. In the experiment, depositors decide whether to withdraw or leave their money in a bank, triggering a default when too many participants choose to withdraw. When a bank run occurs, the amount of wealth each depositor can recover depends on the number of withdrawals and a deposit insurance fund whose size cannot cover in full all depositors. We consider two treatments: (i) a perfect information case when depositors know the size of the insurance fund and (ii) a heterogeneous information setting when they only observe noisy signals about its size. Our results show that uncertainty about the level of deposit coverage exerts a significant impact on the propensity to run. The frequency of runs is relatively high in both treatments. A majority of subjects follow a threshold strategy consistent with a risk-dominant equilibrium selection. Finally, the last chapter re-examines the empirical relationship between financial and economic development while (i) taking into account their dynamics and (ii) differentiating between stock market and banking sector development. We study the cointegration and causality between finance and growth for 22 advanced economies. Our time series analysis suggests that the evidence in support of a finance-led growth is weak once we take into account the dynamics of financial and economic development. We show that, causality patterns depend on whether countries' financial development stems from the stock market or the banking sector. / This thesis consists of four essays on finance and the real economy. Chapter 1 studies the effect of banking crises on the composition of investment. It builds a partial equilibrium growth model with a banking sector and two types of investment projects: a safe, low return technology and an innovative, high productivity one. Investments in innovation are risky since they are subject to a liquidity cost which entrepreneurs cover by borrowing from the banking sector. When bank creditors are sufficiently pessimistic about the aggregate liquidity needs of the real sector, they will run on the bank and cause a credit freeze. This leads banks to tighten credit supply after the crisis, which decreases disproportionately investment in innovation and slows down economic growth. An empirical investigation, employing industry-level data on R&D investment around 13 recent banking crises, confirms this hypothesis. Industries that depend more on external finance, in more bank-based economies, invest disproportionately less in R&D following episodes of banking distress. These industries also have a relatively lower share of R&D in total investment, suggesting a shift in the composition of investment after the crisis. Such differential effects across sectors imply that the drop in R&D spending is, at least partially, the result of the contraction in credit supply.Chapter 2 studies the impact of coordination frictions in financial markets on the cost of capital. In the model, a financial intermediary seeks to raise funds to finance a risky capital-intensive project. Capital is owned by a large number of small investors, who observe noisy signals about the project's implementation cost. Employing a global games equilibrium refinement, we characterize a unique threshold equilibrium of the coordination game between investors. We then show that the relationship between the probability of success of the project and the rate of return on capital is non-monotonic. There exists a socially optimal price of capital, which maximizes the probability that the project is profitable. However, fee-maximizing intermediaries will generally set an interest rate that is higher than the socially optimal rate. The model best characterizes project finance investments funded through the bond market.Chapter 3 proposes a laboratory experiment to study the impact of partial deposit insurance schemes on the risk of deposit withdrawals. In the experiment, depositors decide whether to withdraw or leave their money in a bank, triggering a default when too many participants choose to withdraw. When a bank run occurs, the amount of wealth each depositor can recover depends on the number of withdrawals and a deposit insurance fund whose size cannot cover in full all depositors. We consider two treatments: (i) a perfect information case when depositors know the size of the insurance fund and (ii) a heterogeneous information setting when they only observe noisy signals about its size. Our results show that uncertainty about the level of deposit coverage exerts a significant impact on the propensity to run. The frequency of runs is relatively high in both treatments. A majority of subjects follow a threshold strategy consistent with a risk-dominant equilibrium selection. Finally, the last chapter re-examines the empirical relationship between financial and economic development while (i) taking into account their dynamics and (ii) differentiating between stock market and banking sector development. We study the cointegration and causality between finance and growth for 22 advanced economies. Our time series analysis suggests that the evidence in support of a finance-led growth is weak once we take into account the dynamics of financial and economic development. We show that, causality patterns depend on whether countries' financial development stems from the stock market or the banking sector.

The dissertation examines catching up in labor productivity across countries and across US states. It also studies the role of financial development and inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI) on labor productivity and structural change. Chapter one studies unconditional convergence in labor productivity in cross section of countries. Using disaggregated service sector data for 101 countries, we find unconditional convergence in labor productivity for the service sector. The aggregate service sector yields a large unconditional convergence coefficient of -0.028, while for individual sub-sectors we find a similar presence of unconditional convergence. Since the service sector, as part of the "modern" sector now also faces international competition, unconditional convergence in labor productivity in this sector is not totally unwarranted. Given Rodrik's recent findings of unconditional convergence in labor productivity in the manufacturing sector (2013) and the observed failure of unconditional convergence of per capita GDP, our findings of unconditional convergence in the service sector suggest that we need to look carefully at methodological issues such as "aggregation bias" and the huge divergence of other sectors such as the agricultural sector as a potential solution to this anomaly. In chapter two, we investigate secoral unconditional convergence in labor productivity in the US sates using two series of data sets for the period 1987-1997 and 1998-2013. We have found evidence for catching up in labor productivity in the US states for the majority sectors. There is no evidence for unconditional convergence for the mining sector in 1-digit classification for 1980-1997 and manufacturing and utilities sectors in 2-digit classification for the recent data (1998-2013). The aggregate per capita GDP convergence test shows evidence for convergence for the 1980-1997 data but no evidence for convergence in the recent data consistent with the existing literature. The same factors that were considered responsible for regional convergence in the US, such as migration and falling cost of education, could work in the opposite direction to cause divergence in per capita income in recent years. Chapter three considers the relationship between financial development, inflow of foreign direct investment, labor productivity and structural change variables for 41 countries in Groningen Growth and Development 10-sector database for the period 1971-2012 using panel-VAR methodology. The effect of financial development on total labor productivity and employment share in sectors depend on the income level and geographical locations. We find that financial development has a significantly positive effect on total labor productivity of high income European countries, the United States, and for middle income Latin American counties. We do not find evidence for the positive effect of financial development on labor productivity for low income and middle income countries except for Latin American countries. The result does not show a significant effect of financial development on sectoral employment and value added shares. Inflow of FDI has a statistically significant negative effect on employment share of agriculture in middle income countries, and positive effect on the employment share of the manufacturing sector in middle income Asian countries.

[pt] A dissertação analisa como a inflação afeta a expansão do sistema financeiro. O Brasil oferece uma oportunidade de pesquisa peculiar, pois conviveu por muitos anos com inflação superior a 1.000% a.a. e que caiu abruptamente a ponto de, pouco mais de um ano depois do bem-sucedido plano de estabilização, estar próxima a 10%. O resultado principal é que com inflação elevada, os bancos expandem agências mais interessados em captação vis-à-vis crédito. Por outro lado, com a inflação controlada os bancos passam a ter mais interesse no crédito. Os dados sugerem ainda que houve uma mudança no padrão de expansão das variáveis financeiras (agência, crédito e captação) com relação às características dos municípios como tamanho de mercado, posição geográfica, nível de desenvolvimento e infraestrutura. Esta evidência reforça a tese de que o sistema financeiro brasileiro passou por uma mudança estrutural com o fim da inflação. A dissertação enfatiza a importância do ambiente institucional para o desenvolvimento do mercado de crédito. / [en] This dissertation analyzes the effects of inflation on the expansion of the financial system. To this end, Brazil provides a singular opportunity for research as the country experienced inflation of more than 1,000% per year for many years followed by an abrupt drop. Slightly more than a year after implementation of a successful stabilization plan it was close to 10%. The main result is when inflation is high, banks expand their branch network, more interested as they are in capturing funds as opposed to granting credit. On the other hand, when inflation is under control, banks begin to focus more on credit. The data also suggest that there was a change in the growth pattern of financial variables (branch, credit, and CD issuing) as related to characteristics of the municipalities such as market size, geographical location, level of development, and infrastructure. This evidence reinforces the premise that the end of inflation prompted structural change in the Brazilian financial system. The dissertation emphasizes the importance of the institutional environment for the development of the credit market.