nÃo hà / O presente trabalho busca investigar eventual relaÃÃo entre o desenvolvimento financeiro e desigualdade de renda. Para tal, foram utilizados os dados dos 184 municÃpios cearenses, para o ano de 2010, firmando-se como medida de desigualdade o Ãndice de Gini e, como variÃveis explicativas, as razÃes estabelecidas entre crÃdito e PIB, entre operaÃÃes de crÃdito e PIB; entre operaÃÃes de crÃdito e populaÃÃo; entre financiamentos e PIB e, por fim, entre financiamentos e populaÃÃo, como proxies para o desenvolvimento financeiro. Foi utilizado o mÃtodo denominado Jackknife Model Averaging, que se caracteriza por ser um procedimento de estimaÃÃo que leva em consideraÃÃo todas as possÃveis especificaÃÃes de modelo com base em um conjunto de variÃveis. Empregou-se, ainda, a abordagem FMA, sugerida em Hansen e Racine (2012). Os resultados obtidos indicam que o desenvolvimento financeiro nÃo à estatisticamente relevante para interferir na reduÃÃo da desigualdade de renda. / This work seeks to investigate an eventual relationship between financial development and income inequality. For this, was used data from 184 cities from CearÃ, at the year of 2010, Using as a measure of inequality, the Gini index and, as explanatory variables, the reasons established between credit and GDP, between credit and GDP operations; between credit and population operations; between financing and GDP and, finally, between funding and population, as proxies for financial development. Was used the method called Jackknife Model Averaging, which is characterized by being a procedure of estimation that takes into account all possible model specifications based on a set of variables. We used also the FMA approach suggested in Hansen and Racine (2012). The results indicate that financial development is not statistically relevant to interfere in reducing income inequality.

Este estudo analisa os efeitos do sistema financeiro, caracterizado tanto em termos de desenvolvimento financeiro quanto por sua estrutura financeira, sobre as decisões de investimento e restrições financeiras de firmas brasileiras. Dessa forma, este trabalho investiga como o desenvolvimento financeiro afeta o comportamento das firmas e que tipo de estrutura financeira, isto é, se market-based ou bank-based, prepondera na condução do investimento corporativo e na redução das restrições financeiras das firmas. A relevância deste estudo reside em seu caráter original conduzido a partir da análise de um tema ainda pouco explorado na literatura nacional. A investigação é realizada dentro de um contexto teórico e aplicado e assumindo que o sistema financeiro exerce impacto substancial sobre as decisões de investimento. Com o propósito de contribuir para a escassa literatura internacional e à exígua literatura para o Brasil são consideradas neste estudo informações de 404 firmas brasileiras para o período de 1998 a 2006. A fim de identificar a presença de restrição financeira no comportamento da firma e para controlar e separar seus efeitos de outros fatores nas decisões de investimento, as firmas da amostra são classificadas segundo os índices de restrição financeira KZ e WW. A partir do emprego de dados macroeconômicos em uma análise microeconômica, é estimada uma versão do modelo acelerador do investimento pelo método GMM-system para analisar os efeitos do sistema financeiro sobre os investimentos corporativos. Os resultados sugerem que para firmas financeiramente não restritas o impacto do desenvolvimento financeiro sobre as decisões corporativas ocorre de forma direta, conduzindo a maiores investimentos. Já para firmas financeiramente restritas este efeito ocorre de forma indireta. Nesse caso, um maior desenvolvimento financeiro reduz a dependência dessas firmas por recursos internos para investir e aumenta a resposta de seus investimentos às oportunidades de crescimento. Evidências também são encontradas de que a estrutura financeira exerce influência sobre os investimentos de firmas financeiramente restritas, mesmo após os resultados serem controlados pelo nível de desenvolvimento financeiro. Este resultado aponta para a relevância de um sistema financeiro baseado em mercados para atenuar as restrições financeiras de firmas restritas. Os resultados também sugerem que na presença de oportunidades de crescimento um sistema financeiro baseado em mercados destaca-se ao permitir que a resposta do investimento das firmas a um aumento da demanda seja maior que em um sistema baseado em bancos. / This study analyzes the effects of the financial system, characterized both in terms of financial development as also by its financial structure, on the investment decisions and financial constraints of Brazilian firms. Thereby, this work investigates how the financial development affects a firm\'s behavior and which kind of financial structure, that is, if market-based or bank-based, prevails in driving corporate investment and in reducing a firms\' financial constraints. The relevance of this study lies on its original feature carried from the analysis of a topic not much explored in the national literature. The research is conducted within a theoretical and applied context and by assuming that the financial system exerts substantial impact on investment decisions. In order to contribute to the scarce international literature and to the limited literature for Brazil this study considers information on 404 Brazilian firms over the 1998-2006 period. With the aim to identify the presence of financial constraint on firm behavior and control and separate its effects from other factors on investment decisions, the firms are classified according to the KZ and WW financial constraint indexes. Through the use of macroeconomic data in a microeconomic analysis, a version of the accelerator investment model is estimated by the GMM-system method to analyze the effects of the financial system on corporate investments. The results suggest that for financially unconstrained firms the impact of financial development on corporate decisions is direct, leading to higher investments. On the other hand, for financially constrained firms this effect occurs in an indirect way. In this case, a higher financial development reduces the investment dependence of these firms on internal resources and increases the response of investment to growth opportunities. Evidence is also found that the financial structure affects the investment of financially constrained firms, even after the results are controlled for the level of financial development. This result points to the relevance of a market-based financial system for mitigating the constrained firms\' financial constraints. Results also suggest that in the presence of growth opportunities the response of a firm\'s investment to the increased demand is higher in a market-based financial system than in a bank-based one.

Este trabalho tem como objetivo examinar os efeitos do desenvolvimento financeiro e das restrições financeiras nas decisões de investimento da firma considerando um conjunto de informações de 659 firmas brasileiras no período de 1998 a 2006. A investigação é realizada dentro de um contexto teórico e aplicado, considerando um modelo econométrico com dados longitudinais e assumindo que o desenvolvimento financeiro exerce impacto substancial nas restrições financeiras das firmas, o que está diretamente relacionado às suas decisões de investimento. Com o propósito de contribuir para a escassa literatura internacional e à inexistente literatura para o Brasil, este trabalho utilizou o índice KZ para classificação das firmas como financeiramente restritas e não restritas. Por meio do uso de dados macroeconômicos em uma análise microeconômica, empregou-se o modelo probabilístico logit para encontrar os principais fatores determinantes da probabilidade de restrição financeira das firmas brasileiras. Já para analisar a relação entre desenvolvimento financeiro, restrições financeiras e investimento da firma, estimou-se uma versão do modelo acelerador do investimento pelo método dos momentos generalizados (GMM) devido seu caráter dinâmico e à presença do problema de endogeneidade. Os principais resultados indicaram que, além dos fatores associados à estrutura financeira da firma, fatores como o nível de desenvolvimento financeiro e a taxa de juros de longo prazo têm influência sobre a probabilidade de restrição financeira da firma. Medindo-se a dependência das firmas por recursos internos por meio da sensibilidade do investimento ao fluxo de caixa, os resultados também indicaram que o desenvolvimento financeiro é mais importante para as firmas consideradas financeiramente restritas ao reduzir sua dependência por recursos internos, diminuindo seu grau de restrição financeira. Maiores níveis de desenvolvimento financeiro também se apresentaram associados a maiores taxas de investimento e a uma melhor alocação de capital no caso de firmas identificadas como financeiramente restritas. Esses resultados apresentaram-se robustos mesmo ao se controlar os resultados pela taxa de crescimento econômico, por diferentes variáveis de desenvolvimento financeiro e ao se classificar as firmas por intensidade de capital e taxa de investimento. / The aim of this work is to examine the effects of financial development and financial constraints on firm\'s investment decisions using data from 659 Brazilian firms over the 1998-2006 period. The research is conducted within a theoretical and applied context, considering an econometric model with longitudinal data and assuming that the financial development exerts a substantial impact on firms\' financial constraints, which is directly related to their investment decisions. With the aim of contributing to the scarce international literature and to the inexistent literature for Brazil, this study used the KZ index to classify firms as financially constrained and unconstrained. Through the use of macro data in a microeconomic analysis, the logit probability model was employed to find the main determinants of the financial constraint probability of Brazilian firms. To examine the relationship between financial development, financial constraints and firm\'s investment decisions, it was estimated a version of the accelerator model of investment by the generalized method of moments (GMM) due to its dynamic character and the presence of the endogeneity problem. The main results indicate that, beyond factors associated with the firm\'s financial structure, factors such as the financial development level and the long-term interest rate have influence on the likelihood of firm\'s financial constraint. Measuring the dependence of firms on internal resources by the sensitivity of investment to cash flow, the results also showed that financial development is more important for firms which are considered financially constrained by the fact that a higher level of financial development reduces the dependence on internal resources of these firms, decreasing their level of financial constraint. Higher levels of financial development were also associated with higher rates of investment and with a better allocation of capital when considering firms identified as financially constrained. These results were robust even when controlled by the economic growth rate, by different financial development variables and when firms were classified by capital intensity and investment rate.

Há um intenso debate sobre o papel do crédito sobre o ciclo recente de expansão da economia brasileira. Esse trabalho pretende se inserir nesse debate ao testar resultados consagrados pela literatura empírica sobre as relações entre desenvolvimento financeiro e desenvolvimento econômico e social. Além disso, discute-se a questão de má alocação de recursos no que diz respeito ao crédito concedido com base em recursos direcionados (em geral, por bancos públicos e subsidiado) em relação ao crédito alocado por recursos livres. Os resultados sugerem maior eficiência alocativa do crédito livre em relação ao crédito direcionado. Por outro lado, também indicam um instrumento de políticas públicas que tem contribuído para a redução da desigualdade e da pobreza. Ainda assim, é importante a ressalva da inexistência de uma estimativa precisa de quanto a sociedade está alocando para essas políticas nem se esses recursos poderiam obter resultados mais eficientes se alocados em outros tipos de políticas. Esses resultados são sensíveis ao tamanho dos municípios medido pelo nível do PIB per capita, o que também sugere que uma dinâmica diferente do mercado de crédito e sua contribuição para o desenvolvimento. / There are a lot of discussions about the role of credit on the recent growth cycle of the Brazilian economy. This paper intends to be part of this debate by testing empirical results in the literature that relates financial development and social and economic development outcomes. In addition, it discusses the issue of misallocation of resources specially comparing the earmarked credit concession (usually lent by public banks and with government subsidies) to free market credit. The results indicate greater allocative efficiency of free credit in relation to earmarked credit. On the other hand, they suggest that the earmarked credit is an instrument of public policy that has contributed to reduce poverty and inequality. Even though, it is important to caveat the lack of an accurate estimate of how much the society is allocating to this policy and what type of results would be achieved allocating this resources to other policies with the same goals. These results are sensitive to the municipalities\' size measured by GDP per capita level. It suggests a different dynamic to the credit market and its contribution to development.

In this paper we empirically explore how characteristics of the domestic financial system influence the international allocation of consumption risk using a sample of OECD countries. Our results show that the extent of risk sharing achieved does not depend on the overall development of the domestic financial system per se. Rather, it depends on how the financial system is organized. Specifically, we find that countries characterized by developed financial markets are less exposed to idiosyncratic risk, whereas the development of the banking sector contributes little to the international diversification of consumption risk. We also find that countries with market-based financial systems manage to share a significantly larger fraction of their country-specific risk than bank-based economies. / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

La libéralisation financière a été marquée dans de nombreux pays émergents par l’implantation massive de banques étrangères. A ce jour, les banques étrangères occupent une place dominante dans le secteur bancaire de ces pays et, cela soulève de nombreuses interrogations relatives aux effets sur la stabilité et le développement du système financier. L’objectif de cette thèse est donc d’étudier l’impact des banques étrangères sur l’efficacité du système financier et, de mettre en évidence le rôle de ces banques dans la survenance des crises et la transmission de chocs externes dans les pays émergents. Nous montrons ainsi que les banques étrangères contribuent à améliorer l’efficacité du système financier à travers la transmission de meilleures techniques d’évaluation et de gestion de risque. Cependant, elles sont apparues comme un vecteur de transmission de chocs externes. Cela nous amène, au regard de l’inadéquation du dispositif de surveillance prudentielle, à mettre en avant un cadre de coopération internationale dans la résolution des crises. Il s’agira donc de coordonner l’action collective en impliquant les autorités de régulation, les institutions financières internationales et les acteurs privés que sont notamment les banques de dimension systémique. / The financial liberalization in emerging countries has been marked by the growing rate of foreign banks presence. According to the increasing role of foreign banks in emerging markets, the aim of this thesis is to highlight the impacts on financial development and financial stability. It focuses mainly both on the implications of foreign banks competition on the efficiency of the financial system and on the fact that these banks can increase the financial crisis or convey external shocks. We show that foreign banks play a large part in improving financial efficiency through the best practices introduction in risk management. However, these banks have emerged as a vector of external shock transmission. This leads us, given the banking system regulation inadequacy, to promote a greater international cooperation in the crisis resolution based on national regulators, international financial institutions and multinational banks.

This thesis investigates the impact of financial liberalisation policies on finance-growth relationship and financial crises. Analysis of recent trends and economic performance of financially developed and stable economies raises at least two very important questions that seem to have strong analytical connections. The first question is associated with the link between financial development and economic growth and the second question focuses the possible association between the policies of financial liberalisation and financial vulnerability. In this thesis we aim to shed light on some of the aspects that have gained so much attention from academics and policy makers during the last two decades. First we address whether excessive liberalisation has caused financial development to lose its effectiveness in generating economic growth. We employ a dynamic panel data analysis for 88 countries over the period of 1973 to 2005. Our index for the financial sector liberalisation covers seven aspects: credit controls and reserve requirements, interest rate controls, entry barriers, state ownership, policies on securities markets, banking regulations and restrictions on capital market. We use a comprehensive financial development indicator constructed through principal component analysis of five different indicators: bank private credit to GDP ratio, liquid liability to GDP ratio, deposit money bank assets to total bank assets ratio, deposit money bank assets to GDP ratio, and bank credit to bank deposit ratio. The results indicate that the positive effect of financial development on long-run growth continues to decline as the financial sector becomes more liberalised. Our results are robust to changes in the financial development indicators and the dis-aggregation of the financial liberalisation index. Second, we examine the possibility for an optimal sequence of financial sector reforms that may reduce an economy’s vulnerability to financial crises. We construct a distance measure from the countries that followed a more gradual approach and liberalised their capital account at a later stage. Our analysis shows that the experience of the countries that delayed or followed a very gradual approach for the liberalisation of their capital accounts have high level of implications to those countries that allowed for shock approach or liberalised their capital account before bringing reforms in other sectors.

This thesis explores two important aspects of growth, namely the roles of financial development and inequality. The recent literature has indicated that both the finance-growth and inequality-growth relationships are complex and not well captured through conventional linear regression analyses. Thus, most of the existing empirical literature focuses on marginal or direct growth effects, ignoring the role of possible factors, conditions and thresholds that may alter our thinking about how financial development or inequality may affect economic growth. Further, it ignores the presence of outliers, especially in cross-sectional analyses which may hinder our understanding of these relationships. Therefore, Chapter 1 addresses the issue of outliers in finance-growth literature and provides a robust sensitivity analysis of some past studies and an updated data set. Chapter 2 focuses on whether R&D plays a role, potentially as a proxy for an omitted variable, for growth and whether it has important interactions with financial development. Chapter 3 then examines the role of inequality for growth, allowing the effects to differ depending on the level of human versus physical capital accumulation.The cross-sectional analysis of Chapter 1 employs the robust regression methods of median quantile regression and least trimmed squares. It shows that the findings of past studies are sensitive to outlier observations. Further, we find that the positive effect of financial development on growth disappears and even becomes negative once we use our extended data set of 86 countries over the period 1997-2006. This last finding is consistent with Rousseau and Wachtel (2011). Moreover, we investigate whether our understanding of the finance-growth relationship can further be improved by introducing a measure of R&D into the standard analysis. We note that our measure of R&D has a strong positive effect on growth and may proxy the role of an omitted variable which is highly correlated with economic growth.Chapter 2 also uses R&D and investigates its interaction with conventionally measured financial development. It employs a variety of panel data techniques for a panel of 36 OECD and non-OECD countries to show that the relationship between financial development and economic growth is not straightforward; rather, it is conditional upon the level of innovation or R&D. Further, we find that a high level of technological innovation or R&D is associated with a weak or negative effect of financial development on economic growth. It is also noted that R&D is associated with financial innovation and the results suggest that countries with a high level of R&D may have less regulated financial systems which can adversely affect the finance-growth relationship.The third chapter explores the relationship between inequality and growth in the context of a unified empirical approach suggested by the theoretical model of Galor and Moav (2004). Based on that model, we construct a new measure, the human capital to physical capital ratio, which is used to study threshold effects in the inequality-growth relationship. Methodologically, we use threshold regression with instruments, developed by Caner and Hansen (2004), which allows us to endogenously identify the threshold human capital to physical capital ratio that alters the inequality-growth relationship. Using data on 82 countries, our results show that there exist significant threshold effects, with a level of the human capital to physical capital ratio below which the effect of inequality on growth is positive and significant, whereas it is negative and significant above it. We also test the robustness of our results using different measures of the human capital to physical capital ratio. These results are consistent with the theoretical predictions of Galor and Moav (2004).

Current research examines the interdependence between foreign direct investment (FDI), financial development and economic growth. The relationship between the variables in question is studied with reference to transition economies (28 former centrally planned economies). The period of observation covers the transition from centrally planned to market economies 1989-2007. The relationship is analysed using panel data regression models, factor analysis and cointegration tests. The paper suggests that FDI and financial development exert a complementary effect on economic growth, although the latter appears to be insignificant. At the same time, the research provides evidence that FDI is likely to compensate the underdevelopment of financial sector. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)

Foreign Banks and Financial Development - Foreign Bank Lending in CEE Countries Master thesis Anja Köthe Abstract The objective of this paper is to investigate the relation between foreign banks and financial development and to focus on foreign bank lending, in particular. The research focuses on four countries with a high share of foreign banks: Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. Using a dataset of 122 banks over a 10 year period from 2005 to 2015 a fixed effects panel regression models is used for an empirical analysis. Loan growth as a proxy for lending behaviour and credit stability is used as the dependent variable. The empirical models investigate the determinants of loan growth in foreign and domestic banks as well as the dependence of foreign bank subsidiaries on their parent banks. The regression results indicate that domestic banks are more dependent on local economic conditions and bank performance. Their credit supply depends more on their profitability, loan quality and domestic market share. Foreign bank subsidiaries, in contrast, exhibit greater independence from local economic conditions and also from subsidiary performance indicators such as profitability ratios. Instead their lending behaviour is significantly influenced by the financial characteristics of their parent banks.