Recentes catástrofes provocadas por eventos hidrológicos extremos ocorridos nas cidades brasileiras revelaram a fragilidade das atuais políticas empregadas no tratamento do problema das inundações. Freqüentemente, faltam recursos mesmo para as ações emergenciais, e as ações estruturais aplicadas muitas vezes consistem de medidas pontuais e paliativas que não promovem soluções definitivas no âmbito de bacia hidrográfica. O tratamento do problema de inundações de maneira orientada ao risco, em lugar da tradicional abordagem orientada a evento, é uma alternativa que propicia soluções mais eficientes e sustentáveis. A gestão do risco de desastres naturais compreende três níveis: antes, durante e após o evento extremo, com base em ações que visam à redução do risco por meio de suas três componentes: ameaça, vulnerabilidade e exposição. No contexto do desenvolvimento e fortalecimento econômico do Brasil, os seguros para desastres naturais têm papel importante como agentes de transferência do risco que possibilitam a recuperação econômica das áreas atingidas. Vencido o entrave inicial à implantação de seguros deste tipo no Brasil, que foi a abertura, em 2007, ao mercado ressegurador internacional, o desafio que se apresenta atualmente é o desenvolvimento de metodologias que possibilitem relacionar a magnitude do evento natural extremo com o prejuízo monetário correspondente e o prêmio de seguro que possibilite ressarcir as perdas contabilizadas, considerando cenários de longo prazo. O modelo de seguros proposto neste trabalho é baseado no princípio de seguro indexado, em que o pagamento de indenizações é vinculado a uma variável climática, no caso, a vazão máxima de cheia. Foram utilizadas ferramentas de modelagem e simulação hidráulico-hidrológica para gerar mapas de risco de inundação e quantificar os prejuízos correspondentes às cheias de diferentes probabilidades de ocorrência. Em seguida, foi simulado um modelo econômico de seguros para obter o prêmio ótimo capaz de ressarcir os prejuízos estimados, considerando diferentes cenários de longo prazo. Um estudo de caso ilustra a aplicação do método em uma bacia hidrográfica caracterizada por problemas recorrentes de inundação, dado o processo de expansão urbana que nela vem ocorrendo. Foram avaliadas faixas de cobertura em função dos períodos de retorno das cheias correspondentes. Os resultados mostraram que a metodologia é adequada à análise do comportamento do fundo de seguros. Resseguros podem ser requeridos para o tratamento de eventos de períodos de retorno muito extremos. / Recent disasters caused by extreme hydrological events, occurred in Brazilian cities, have exposed how fragile the current policies are to manage such situation. Often, a lack of resources is observed even for emergency actions, while structural actions commonly consist of palliative and punctual measures that do not promote real solutions considering the watershed sphere. To face the problem based on a risk-oriented approach instead of the traditional event-oriented approach represents an alternative that provides more efficient and sustainable solutions. Disaster risk management comprehends three time-oriented phases: before, during and after the extreme event, each phase focusing on the three risk\'s components: hazard, vulnerability and exposition. As Brazil\'s economy grows stronger and more stable, natural disaster insurance plays an important role as a risk transfer mechanism, promoting economic resilience in damaged areas. After the opening of the reinsurance\'s market in 2007, Brazil\'s challenge is to develop methodologies relating extreme events hazard with its corresponding damage and an insurance premium, in a way that the losses can be refunded in long term sceneries. The insurance model proposed in this work is based on the indexed insurance, where the refunds are linked to a weather variable - the maximum discharge. Hydrologic and hydraulic simulations were developed in order to generate risk maps and to quantify the damage related to floods with different return periods. Afterwards, a flood insurance model was simulated in order to obtain the optimal insurance premium sufficient to refund the expected damage for long term sceneries. A case study illustrates the method in a watershed where flood events are frequent due to urban occupation. The insurance coverage associated to each flood return period was examined and the results have shown that the methodology is suitable for the analysis of the flood insurance\'s behavior. Reinsurance may be required to deal with extreme events with high return periods.

Global warming and climate change is believed to increase the hydro-meteorological natural disasters. Floods, the most widespread of natural hazards, are expected to occur more frequently and severely in the near future. This means that urban areas of Turkey are likely to be under intensive threat of floods, the adverse impacts of which are already considered only next to that of earthquakes. The recent disaster policy of United Nations together with contemporary interpretations of risk society shifted to capacity building and risk management prior to hazards, rather than preparations for relief after disasters. This historical turn in policy demands a more comprehensive and integrated form of planning for the mitigation of risks in the riverain cities of Turkey than existing approaches. Turkey&amp / #8217 / s current flood protection structure seems to be based on the surveys and assessments of a central authority and on its limited powers of intervention. The local municipal administrations are under different interests and pressures for development and land-use. It seems essential to integrate flood risk mitigation efforts with the local planning system and to involve municipalities in their estimations of risks and its declaration on official duty, as contemporary international approaches indicate. This conviction is based on a sample survey of four cases of riverine cities in Turkey, and on a review of current approaches in a sample of international cases. Findings on four riverain case cities indicate that river floods turn into destructive disasters mainly due to tolerant land-use decisions. Inaccurate and discrete implementations and developments in and through the river basins are a second source of flood losses. Currently, neither urban development plans nor available flood plans are equipped with necessary measures to mitigate risks. Findings indicate that current vulnerabilities are greater in value than investments made to curb flood risks. Independent and discrete efforts of mitigation seem to generate illusory feelings of safety, which aggravates vulnerabilities. The compulsory declaration of flood vulnerabilities by municipalities themselves in their entitlement for special subsidies could raise the general level of awareness, could curb further vulnerabilities, and contribute to the articulation of planning methods in the more effective mitigation control.

Recentes catástrofes provocadas por eventos hidrológicos extremos ocorridos nas cidades brasileiras revelaram a fragilidade das atuais políticas empregadas no tratamento do problema das inundações. Freqüentemente, faltam recursos mesmo para as ações emergenciais, e as ações estruturais aplicadas muitas vezes consistem de medidas pontuais e paliativas que não promovem soluções definitivas no âmbito de bacia hidrográfica. O tratamento do problema de inundações de maneira orientada ao risco, em lugar da tradicional abordagem orientada a evento, é uma alternativa que propicia soluções mais eficientes e sustentáveis. A gestão do risco de desastres naturais compreende três níveis: antes, durante e após o evento extremo, com base em ações que visam à redução do risco por meio de suas três componentes: ameaça, vulnerabilidade e exposição. No contexto do desenvolvimento e fortalecimento econômico do Brasil, os seguros para desastres naturais têm papel importante como agentes de transferência do risco que possibilitam a recuperação econômica das áreas atingidas. Vencido o entrave inicial à implantação de seguros deste tipo no Brasil, que foi a abertura, em 2007, ao mercado ressegurador internacional, o desafio que se apresenta atualmente é o desenvolvimento de metodologias que possibilitem relacionar a magnitude do evento natural extremo com o prejuízo monetário correspondente e o prêmio de seguro que possibilite ressarcir as perdas contabilizadas, considerando cenários de longo prazo. O modelo de seguros proposto neste trabalho é baseado no princípio de seguro indexado, em que o pagamento de indenizações é vinculado a uma variável climática, no caso, a vazão máxima de cheia. Foram utilizadas ferramentas de modelagem e simulação hidráulico-hidrológica para gerar mapas de risco de inundação e quantificar os prejuízos correspondentes às cheias de diferentes probabilidades de ocorrência. Em seguida, foi simulado um modelo econômico de seguros para obter o prêmio ótimo capaz de ressarcir os prejuízos estimados, considerando diferentes cenários de longo prazo. Um estudo de caso ilustra a aplicação do método em uma bacia hidrográfica caracterizada por problemas recorrentes de inundação, dado o processo de expansão urbana que nela vem ocorrendo. Foram avaliadas faixas de cobertura em função dos períodos de retorno das cheias correspondentes. Os resultados mostraram que a metodologia é adequada à análise do comportamento do fundo de seguros. Resseguros podem ser requeridos para o tratamento de eventos de períodos de retorno muito extremos. / Recent disasters caused by extreme hydrological events, occurred in Brazilian cities, have exposed how fragile the current policies are to manage such situation. Often, a lack of resources is observed even for emergency actions, while structural actions commonly consist of palliative and punctual measures that do not promote real solutions considering the watershed sphere. To face the problem based on a risk-oriented approach instead of the traditional event-oriented approach represents an alternative that provides more efficient and sustainable solutions. Disaster risk management comprehends three time-oriented phases: before, during and after the extreme event, each phase focusing on the three risk\'s components: hazard, vulnerability and exposition. As Brazil\'s economy grows stronger and more stable, natural disaster insurance plays an important role as a risk transfer mechanism, promoting economic resilience in damaged areas. After the opening of the reinsurance\'s market in 2007, Brazil\'s challenge is to develop methodologies relating extreme events hazard with its corresponding damage and an insurance premium, in a way that the losses can be refunded in long term sceneries. The insurance model proposed in this work is based on the indexed insurance, where the refunds are linked to a weather variable - the maximum discharge. Hydrologic and hydraulic simulations were developed in order to generate risk maps and to quantify the damage related to floods with different return periods. Afterwards, a flood insurance model was simulated in order to obtain the optimal insurance premium sufficient to refund the expected damage for long term sceneries. A case study illustrates the method in a watershed where flood events are frequent due to urban occupation. The insurance coverage associated to each flood return period was examined and the results have shown that the methodology is suitable for the analysis of the flood insurance\'s behavior. Reinsurance may be required to deal with extreme events with high return periods.

Spatial planning in the flood area of the river Dědina Abstract The delimitation of new development areas in flood area of river is one of the steps leading to the increase of flood risk. The aim of this master thesis is to find out whether and for what reasons is the delimitation of new development areas happening in territories which are at risk of flooding. At the same time, the thesis also focuses on the role of the mayor, especially his competencies related to the management of flood risks, arising from his function. Theoretical part is based on discussion about the development of cooperation between society and natural environment and also concept of Flood Risk Management, especially in relation of the flood risk with the process of urban planning and also with the organization of public administration. The analysis of spatial plans of the 5 municipalities, or more precisely 14 local districts, located on the Dědina river in Hradec Králové region uses the borders of floodplain defined by T. G. Masaryk Water Reasearch Institute and spatial plans of analysed municipalities. The results correspond to created graphical outputs and following research of textual parts of the spatial plans. Specific additional informations were obtained during structured interviews with five mayors of the studied...

This study investigates the aspects of resilience in the management strategies of the key stakeholders of flood risk management in the city of Accra, Ghana. The overall objective is to analyse the response capacity in the strategies of the key stakeholders in flood risk management for managing the unexpected course of flood disasters in addition to the expected features of flood risk. To achieve the set objective, the following research questions are addressed: Who are the key stakeholders of flood risk management in the city of Accra? How are these stakeholders dealing with the unexpected course of flood disasters in addition to the expected features of flood risk in their management strategies? How could the capacity of the strategies for responding to the unexpected course of flood disasters be advanced? The inductive case study design applies document analyses, semi-structured interviews as well as key stakeholder identification and validation methods. Scientific and policy documents about resilience and flood risk management were reviewed. The research participants were mainly directors and representatives of organisations in flood risk management of the study. Empirical findings include key stakeholders in flood risk management as well as aspects of resilience and anticipation in flood risk management strategies. The main finding on the key stakeholders of flood risk management are national, district, civil society, and private sector organisations as well as traditional authorities (local chiefs). Aspects of resilience in flood risk management strategies comprises omnivorousness, agile and timely flow of response resource, homoeostasis, flatness of the response structure and process, redundancy of the response resources and buffer capacity. Findings revealed resilience regarding diversity in sources of resource and responses for dealing with unexpected course of flood disasters. The aspects of anticipation are described as resistance to known risk, maintenance of boundary conditions of the management strategies and specialisation for dealing with specific flood risk within and among organisations. Regarding anticipation, results indicate that there are measures for resisting known flood risk but their implementation is ineffective. Based upon the findings, hypotheses are derived for advancement of resilience and anticipation in flood risk management strategies. Involvement of the local chiefs, Slum Union of Ghana, Local Development Associations of flood-prone communities and key private sector organisations in flood risk management strategies in the city of Accra would amend their response capacities in diversity of sources of response resources and allow for advanced resilience regarding their responses to the impacts of land-use changes and the waste disposal in watercourses. Recommendations refer to prospects to advance the response capacity of key stakeholders of flood risk management strategies by integrating traditional authorities and private organisations in flood risk management in the city of Accra. / Diese Arbeit untersucht Aspekte von Resilienz in den Strategien von Schlüsselakteuren des Hochwasserrisikomanagements in der Stadt Accra (Ghana). Das übergeordnete Ziel besteht darin, das Reaktionsvermögen dieser Akteure in ihren Management-Strategien nicht nur hinsichtlich des erwarteten, sondern vor allem hinsichtlich des unerwarteten Verlaufs von Hochwasserkatastrophen zu untersuchen. Die folgenden drei Forschungsfragen werden untersucht: Wer sind die Schlüsselakteure des Hochwasserrisikomanagements in der Stadt Accra? Wie berücksichtigen diese Akteure in ihren Management-Strategien den unerwarteten Verlauf von Hochwasserkatastrophen zusätzlich zu dem erwarteten Verlauf? Wie könnte das Reaktionsvermögen bezüglich des Umgangs mit dem unerwarteten Verlauf von Hochwasserkatastrophen in diesen Strategien ausgeweitet werden? Im Rahmen des induktiven Fallstudiendesigns werden Dokumentenanalysen, halbstandardisierte Interviews und Gruppendiskussionen eingesetzt. Die daraus resultierenden empirischen Befunde beziehen sich neben der Identifikation der Schlüsselakteure des Hochwasserrisikomanagements auch auf die Aspekte von Resilienz und Antizipation in ihren Management-Strategien. Zu den Schlüsselakteuren zählen nationale und lokale Organisationen, aber auch solche aus der Zivilgesellschaft, dem privaten Sektor und traditionelle Autoritäten. Bei den Aspekten von Resilienz in den Hochwasserrisikomanagement-Strategien handelt es sich um ganzheitliche Herangehensweisen, regen und zeitnahen Einsatz von Ressourcen zur Ereignisbewältigung sowie Pufferkapazitäten. Die Ergebnisse zeigten Widerstandsfähigkeit in Bezug auf die Vielfalt in den Quellen von Ressourcen und Antworten auf den unerwarteten Verlauf von Hochwasserkatastrophen. Die Ergebnisse hinsichtlich der Antizipation von Hochwasserrisikomanagement-Strategien umfassen den Widerstand gegen das bekannte Risiko, die Aufrechterhaltung von Rahmenbedingungen der Management-Strategien und die Spezialisierung auf bestimmte Hochwasserrisiken. Auf den Erkenntnissen über die Aspekte von Resilienz und Antizipation in den Hochwasserrisikomanagement-Strategien aufbauend werden Hypothesen abgeleitet. In den Handlungsempfehlungen werden die Chancen einer Integration traditioneller Autoritäten und anderer Interessensgruppen in das Hochwasserrisikomanagement der Stadt Accra aufgezeigt, wodurch eine Weiterentwicklung der Resilienz in den Hochwasserrisikomanagement-Strategien für die Zukunft erreicht werden kann.

This study investigates the aspects of resilience in the management strategies of the key stakeholders of flood risk management in the city of Accra, Ghana. The overall objective is to analyse the response capacity in the strategies of the key stakeholders in flood risk management for managing the unexpected course of flood disasters in addition to the expected features of flood risk. To achieve the set objective, the following research questions are addressed: Who are the key stakeholders of flood risk management in the city of Accra? How are these stakeholders dealing with the unexpected course of flood disasters in addition to the expected features of flood risk in their management strategies? How could the capacity of the strategies for responding to the unexpected course of flood disasters be advanced? The inductive case study design applies document analyses, semi-structured interviews as well as key stakeholder identification and validation methods. Scientific and policy documents about resilience and flood risk management were reviewed. The research participants were mainly directors and representatives of organisations in flood risk management of the study. Empirical findings include key stakeholders in flood risk management as well as aspects of resilience and anticipation in flood risk management strategies. The main finding on the key stakeholders of flood risk management are national, district, civil society, and private sector organisations as well as traditional authorities (local chiefs). Aspects of resilience in flood risk management strategies comprises omnivorousness, agile and timely flow of response resource, homoeostasis, flatness of the response structure and process, redundancy of the response resources and buffer capacity. Findings revealed resilience regarding diversity in sources of resource and responses for dealing with unexpected course of flood disasters. The aspects of anticipation are described as resistance to known risk, maintenance of boundary conditions of the management strategies and specialisation for dealing with specific flood risk within and among organisations. Regarding anticipation, results indicate that there are measures for resisting known flood risk but their implementation is ineffective. Based upon the findings, hypotheses are derived for advancement of resilience and anticipation in flood risk management strategies. Involvement of the local chiefs, Slum Union of Ghana, Local Development Associations of flood-prone communities and key private sector organisations in flood risk management strategies in the city of Accra would amend their response capacities in diversity of sources of response resources and allow for advanced resilience regarding their responses to the impacts of land-use changes and the waste disposal in watercourses. Recommendations refer to prospects to advance the response capacity of key stakeholders of flood risk management strategies by integrating traditional authorities and private organisations in flood risk management in the city of Accra.:Note on the commencement of the doctoral procedure i Declaration of conformity ii Acknowledgement iv Abstract vi Table of contents x List of figures xv List of tables xvi List of abbreviations xvii 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Background 1 1.2 Problem statement 2 1.3 Objectives and research questions 12 1.4 Justification of the study 16 1.5 Structure of this research 17 2 Conceptual framework 20 2.1 Basic concepts in flood risk management 20 2.1.1 Flood risk 21 2.1.2 Expected and unexpected course of flood disasters 24 2.1.3 Flood risk management 27 2.1.4 Flood risk management strategies 30 2.1.5 Stakeholders of flood risk management strategies 33 2.1.6 Risk governance beyond flood risk management strategies 39 2.2 Resilience in flood risk management strategies 42 2.2.1 Overview of resilience concepts 43 2.2.2 Resilience and flood risk management 49 2.2.3 Operationalisation of resilience in flood risk management strategies 54 3 Research design and methods 71 3.1 Research design 71 3.1.1 Overall design 71 3.1.2 Case study approach 72 3.1.3 Research ethics and access to data 73 3.2 Data collection methods 75 3.2.1 Sampling techniques 75 3.2.2 Documents analysis 75 3.2.3 Expert interviews 76 3.3. Data analysis 78 3.4 Methods for answering the research questions 79 3.4.1 Research question 1: Stakeholder analysis 79 3.4.2 Research question 2: Semi-structured interviews and content analysis 93 3.4.3 Research question 3: Derivation of hypotheses 95 4 Identification of potential key stakeholders and selection of key stakeholders 101 4.1 Principled stakeholders of flood risk management 101 4.2 Potential key stakeholders of flood risk management 104 4.2.1 Potential key stakeholders on international level 104 4.2.2 Potential key stakeholders in flood risk management at the national level 110 4.2.3 Potential key stakeholders of flood risk management from Accra Metropolitan Assembly 119 4.2.4 Potential key stakeholders from non-governmental organisations 123 4.2.5 Potential key stakeholders from business organisations 128 4.2.6 Potential key stakeholders from traditional authorities and opinion leaders 132 4.3 Selection of key stakeholders of flood risk management in the city of Accra 135 4.4 Description of the key stakeholders of flood risk management in the city of Accra 138 5 Resilience and anticipation in flood risk management strategies 143 5.1 Resilience aspects 143 5.1.1 Resilience aspect Omnivorousness of the flood risk management strategy 143 5.1.2 Resilience aspect Agile and timely flow of response rate of the flood risk management strategy 147 5.1.3 Resilience aspect Homeostasis of the flood risk management strategy 155 5.1.4 Resilience aspect Flatness of response process and structure of flood risk management strategy 162 5.1.5 Resilience aspect Redundancy of response resources for flood risk management of the organisations 165 5.1.6 Resilience aspect Buffer capacity of the flood risk management strategy 171 5.2 Aspects of Anticipation 173 5.2.1 Anticipation aspect Resistance to (known) flood risks 173 5.2.2 Anticipation aspect Maintenance of boundary conditions of flood risk management strategy 179 5.2.3 Anticipation aspect Specialisation in dealing with specific courses of flood disasters 182 6 Hypotheses for advancing resilience and anticipation in flood risk management strategies 184 6.1 Hypotheses on advancing resilience in flood risk management strategies 184 6.1.1 Hypotheses for resilience regarding Omnivorousness of the flood risk management strategy 184 6.1.2 Hypothesis for resilience regarding Homoeostasis of flood risk management strategy 186 6.1.3 Hypothesis for resilience regarding agile and timely flow of response rate of the flood risk management strategy 189 6.1.4 Hypothesis for resilience regarding flatness of flood risk management strategy 191 6.1.5 Hypothesis on resilience regarding Redundancy of flood risk management strategies 194 6.1.6 Hypothesis for resilience regarding Buffer capacity of flood risk management strategy 196 6.2 Hypothesis for advancement of anticipation in flood risk management strategies 197 6.2.1 Hypotheses for anticipation regarding Resistance to known flood risk in flood risk management strategy 197 6.2.2 Hypotheses for anticipation regarding maintenance in boundary conditions of flood risk management strategy 201 6.2.3 Hypothesis for anticipation regarding Specialisation for dealing with specific courses of flood disasters 203 7 Discussion of approach and key findings 206 7.1 Conceptual and methodological rigour of the study 206 7.2 Conceptual and empirical relevance for resilience and anticipation in flood risk management strategies 213 7.3 Accomplishment of the research objectives and answers to the research questions 217 7.4 Limitations of this research 226 7.5 Prospects and challenges for future research on resilience in FRM strategies 227 8 Conclusions and recommendations 229 8.1 Conclusions on main contributions of this study 229 8.2 Demand for future research 231 8.3 Recommendations for formulation and implementation of FRM strategies in the city of Accra 232 8.4 General concluding remarks 234 9 References 235 9.1 Literature 235 9.2 Other sources 252 10 Appendices 259 10.1 Appendix I Interview guide 259 10.2 Appendix II Selected interview codes and quotations 264 / Diese Arbeit untersucht Aspekte von Resilienz in den Strategien von Schlüsselakteuren des Hochwasserrisikomanagements in der Stadt Accra (Ghana). Das übergeordnete Ziel besteht darin, das Reaktionsvermögen dieser Akteure in ihren Management-Strategien nicht nur hinsichtlich des erwarteten, sondern vor allem hinsichtlich des unerwarteten Verlaufs von Hochwasserkatastrophen zu untersuchen. Die folgenden drei Forschungsfragen werden untersucht: Wer sind die Schlüsselakteure des Hochwasserrisikomanagements in der Stadt Accra? Wie berücksichtigen diese Akteure in ihren Management-Strategien den unerwarteten Verlauf von Hochwasserkatastrophen zusätzlich zu dem erwarteten Verlauf? Wie könnte das Reaktionsvermögen bezüglich des Umgangs mit dem unerwarteten Verlauf von Hochwasserkatastrophen in diesen Strategien ausgeweitet werden? Im Rahmen des induktiven Fallstudiendesigns werden Dokumentenanalysen, halbstandardisierte Interviews und Gruppendiskussionen eingesetzt. Die daraus resultierenden empirischen Befunde beziehen sich neben der Identifikation der Schlüsselakteure des Hochwasserrisikomanagements auch auf die Aspekte von Resilienz und Antizipation in ihren Management-Strategien. Zu den Schlüsselakteuren zählen nationale und lokale Organisationen, aber auch solche aus der Zivilgesellschaft, dem privaten Sektor und traditionelle Autoritäten. Bei den Aspekten von Resilienz in den Hochwasserrisikomanagement-Strategien handelt es sich um ganzheitliche Herangehensweisen, regen und zeitnahen Einsatz von Ressourcen zur Ereignisbewältigung sowie Pufferkapazitäten. Die Ergebnisse zeigten Widerstandsfähigkeit in Bezug auf die Vielfalt in den Quellen von Ressourcen und Antworten auf den unerwarteten Verlauf von Hochwasserkatastrophen. Die Ergebnisse hinsichtlich der Antizipation von Hochwasserrisikomanagement-Strategien umfassen den Widerstand gegen das bekannte Risiko, die Aufrechterhaltung von Rahmenbedingungen der Management-Strategien und die Spezialisierung auf bestimmte Hochwasserrisiken. Auf den Erkenntnissen über die Aspekte von Resilienz und Antizipation in den Hochwasserrisikomanagement-Strategien aufbauend werden Hypothesen abgeleitet. In den Handlungsempfehlungen werden die Chancen einer Integration traditioneller Autoritäten und anderer Interessensgruppen in das Hochwasserrisikomanagement der Stadt Accra aufgezeigt, wodurch eine Weiterentwicklung der Resilienz in den Hochwasserrisikomanagement-Strategien für die Zukunft erreicht werden kann.:Note on the commencement of the doctoral procedure i Declaration of conformity ii Acknowledgement iv Abstract vi Table of contents x List of figures xv List of tables xvi List of abbreviations xvii 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Background 1 1.2 Problem statement 2 1.3 Objectives and research questions 12 1.4 Justification of the study 16 1.5 Structure of this research 17 2 Conceptual framework 20 2.1 Basic concepts in flood risk management 20 2.1.1 Flood risk 21 2.1.2 Expected and unexpected course of flood disasters 24 2.1.3 Flood risk management 27 2.1.4 Flood risk management strategies 30 2.1.5 Stakeholders of flood risk management strategies 33 2.1.6 Risk governance beyond flood risk management strategies 39 2.2 Resilience in flood risk management strategies 42 2.2.1 Overview of resilience concepts 43 2.2.2 Resilience and flood risk management 49 2.2.3 Operationalisation of resilience in flood risk management strategies 54 3 Research design and methods 71 3.1 Research design 71 3.1.1 Overall design 71 3.1.2 Case study approach 72 3.1.3 Research ethics and access to data 73 3.2 Data collection methods 75 3.2.1 Sampling techniques 75 3.2.2 Documents analysis 75 3.2.3 Expert interviews 76 3.3. Data analysis 78 3.4 Methods for answering the research questions 79 3.4.1 Research question 1: Stakeholder analysis 79 3.4.2 Research question 2: Semi-structured interviews and content analysis 93 3.4.3 Research question 3: Derivation of hypotheses 95 4 Identification of potential key stakeholders and selection of key stakeholders 101 4.1 Principled stakeholders of flood risk management 101 4.2 Potential key stakeholders of flood risk management 104 4.2.1 Potential key stakeholders on international level 104 4.2.2 Potential key stakeholders in flood risk management at the national level 110 4.2.3 Potential key stakeholders of flood risk management from Accra Metropolitan Assembly 119 4.2.4 Potential key stakeholders from non-governmental organisations 123 4.2.5 Potential key stakeholders from business organisations 128 4.2.6 Potential key stakeholders from traditional authorities and opinion leaders 132 4.3 Selection of key stakeholders of flood risk management in the city of Accra 135 4.4 Description of the key stakeholders of flood risk management in the city of Accra 138 5 Resilience and anticipation in flood risk management strategies 143 5.1 Resilience aspects 143 5.1.1 Resilience aspect Omnivorousness of the flood risk management strategy 143 5.1.2 Resilience aspect Agile and timely flow of response rate of the flood risk management strategy 147 5.1.3 Resilience aspect Homeostasis of the flood risk management strategy 155 5.1.4 Resilience aspect Flatness of response process and structure of flood risk management strategy 162 5.1.5 Resilience aspect Redundancy of response resources for flood risk management of the organisations 165 5.1.6 Resilience aspect Buffer capacity of the flood risk management strategy 171 5.2 Aspects of Anticipation 173 5.2.1 Anticipation aspect Resistance to (known) flood risks 173 5.2.2 Anticipation aspect Maintenance of boundary conditions of flood risk management strategy 179 5.2.3 Anticipation aspect Specialisation in dealing with specific courses of flood disasters 182 6 Hypotheses for advancing resilience and anticipation in flood risk management strategies 184 6.1 Hypotheses on advancing resilience in flood risk management strategies 184 6.1.1 Hypotheses for resilience regarding Omnivorousness of the flood risk management strategy 184 6.1.2 Hypothesis for resilience regarding Homoeostasis of flood risk management strategy 186 6.1.3 Hypothesis for resilience regarding agile and timely flow of response rate of the flood risk management strategy 189 6.1.4 Hypothesis for resilience regarding flatness of flood risk management strategy 191 6.1.5 Hypothesis on resilience regarding Redundancy of flood risk management strategies 194 6.1.6 Hypothesis for resilience regarding Buffer capacity of flood risk management strategy 196 6.2 Hypothesis for advancement of anticipation in flood risk management strategies 197 6.2.1 Hypotheses for anticipation regarding Resistance to known flood risk in flood risk management strategy 197 6.2.2 Hypotheses for anticipation regarding maintenance in boundary conditions of flood risk management strategy 201 6.2.3 Hypothesis for anticipation regarding Specialisation for dealing with specific courses of flood disasters 203 7 Discussion of approach and key findings 206 7.1 Conceptual and methodological rigour of the study 206 7.2 Conceptual and empirical relevance for resilience and anticipation in flood risk management strategies 213 7.3 Accomplishment of the research objectives and answers to the research questions 217 7.4 Limitations of this research 226 7.5 Prospects and challenges for future research on resilience in FRM strategies 227 8 Conclusions and recommendations 229 8.1 Conclusions on main contributions of this study 229 8.2 Demand for future research 231 8.3 Recommendations for formulation and implementation of FRM strategies in the city of Accra 232 8.4 General concluding remarks 234 9 References 235 9.1 Literature 235 9.2 Other sources 252 10 Appendices 259 10.1 Appendix I Interview guide 259 10.2 Appendix II Selected interview codes and quotations 264

Die Dissertation befasst sich mit der integrierten Bewirtschaftungsplanung von Flusseinzugsgebieten. Die europäische Wasserrahmenrichtlinie (WRRL, 2000/60/EG) und die europäische Hochwasserrichtlinie (HWRL, 2007/60/EG) setzen dafür neue Maßstäbe, indem beide die Mitgliedsstaaten zur Aufstellung einzugsgebietsbezogener Planungsinstrumente verpflichten. In der Arbeit werden eingangs die wesentlichen Prozesse, theoretischen Modelle und Ansatzpunkte für ein integriertes Management von Flusseinzugsgebieten vorgestellt. Die Anforderungen an Bewirtschaftungspläne und Maßnahmenprogramme der WRRL werden den Vorgaben für die Erstellung der Hochwasserrisikomanagementpläne und ihren planerischen Grundlagen gemäß HWRL gegenübergestellt. Potenzielle Synergien und Konflikte zwischen den Zielen und Maßnahmen werden identifiziert. Der Vergleich der Planungsschritte und -methoden zeigt, dass Abstimmungsbedarf zwischen den Planungsinstrumenten des Flussgebiets- und Hochwasserrisikomanagements für sämtliche Planungsschritte besteht, von der Systemanalyse bis zur Maßnahmenumsetzung. Darauf aufbauend wird ein Konzept für eine integrierte Bewirtschaftungsplanung entwickelt. Das Konzept besteht aus einzelnen fachlich-methodischen Planungsmodulen für jeden Planungsschritt. Sie können im Zusammenhang oder für sich genommen zur Abstimmung zwischen den Plänen des Flussgebiets- und Hochwasserrisikomanagements dienen. Abschließend werden die fachlichen und organisatorischinstitutionellen Potenziale des Konzepts diskutiert und weitergehender Forschungsbedarf aufgezeigt. / The thesis addresses the integrated planning of river basins. For this, the European Water Framework Directive (WFD, 2000/60/EC) and the Floods Directive (FD, 2007/60/EC) are setting new benchmarks by committing its member states to set up river basin-wide management plans. At the beginning of the thesis, the most important processes, theoretical models and options of intervention for integrated river basin management are introduced. The requirements for the river basin management plans and the programmes of measures of the WFD will be contrasted with the specifications for the flood risk management plans according to the FD and their fundamental planning documents. Potential synergies and conflicts between the objectives and measures are identified. The comparison of the planning steps and methods show that all planning steps, from the systems analysis to the implementation of measures, require a coordination of the planning instruments of river basin management and flood risk management. Based on these findings, a concept of integrated river basin management planning is developed. The concept is composed of planning modules for each planning step. For the reconciliation between the plans of river basin management and flood risk management, those planning modules can be used in combination or separately. Finally, the technical and institutional potentials of the concept are discussed. Need for further research is identified.

Dams and reservoirs with multiple purposes require effective management to fully realize their purposes and maximize efficiency. For instance, a reservoir intended mainly for the purposes of flood control and hydropower generation may result in a system with primary objectives that conflict with each other. This is because higher hydraulic heads are required to achieve the hydropower generation objective while relatively lower reservoir levels are required to fulfill flood control objectives. Protracted imbalances between these two could increase the susceptibility of the system to risks of water shortage or flood, depending on inflow volumes and operational policy effectiveness. The magnitudes of these risks can become even more pronounced when upstream use of the river is unregulated and uncoordinated so that upstream consumptions and releases are arbitrary. As a result, safe operational practices and risk management alternatives must be structured after an improved understanding of historical and anticipated inflows, actual and speculative upstream uses, and the overall hydrology of catchments upstream of the reservoir. One of such systems with an almost yearly occurrence of floods and shortages due to both natural and anthropogenic factors is the dual reservoir system of Kainji and Jebba in Nigeria. To analyze and manage these risks, a methodology that combines a stochastic and deterministic approach was employed. Using methods outlined by Box and Jenkins (1976), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were developed for forecasting Niger river inflows at Kainji reservoir based on twenty-seven-year-long historical inflow data (1970-1996). These were then validated using seven-year inflow records (1997-2003). The model with the best correlation was a seasonal multiplicative ARIMA (2,1,1)x(2,1,2)12 model. Supplementary iv validation of this model was done with discharge rating curves developed for the inlet of the reservoir using in situ inflows and satellite altimetry data. By comparing net inflow volumes with storage deficit, flood and shortage risk factors at the reservoir were determined based on (a) actual inflows, (b) forecasted inflows (up to 2015), and (c) simulated scenarios depicting undefined competitive upstream consumption. Calculated highrisk years matched actual flood years again suggesting the reliability of the model. Monte Carlo simulations were then used to prescribe safe outflows and storage allocations in order to reduce futuristic risk factors. The theoretical safety levels achieved indicated risk factors below threshold values and showed that this methodology is a powerful tool for estimating and managing flood and shortage risks in reservoirs with undefined competitive upstream consumption

Water is an essential but vulnerable resource. A shortage of good quality drinking water is a threat to human health and society as a whole. Abundance of water in the form of floods can also be a serious threat which can have consequences for the drinking water supply. To reduce these risks there is a need for systematic risk reduction. In the last decades a risk management approach has been developed in the management of both flood and drinking water risks. This means that a reactive, ad hoc management is being replaced by a more proactive and systematic approach where risks are analysed and evaluated as a basis for prioritising counter-measures. The complex nature of water issues has also made it evident that there is a need for a holistic view of the management, involving a variety of actors and sectors. An integrated management approach to floods and water resources has emerged. This thesis aims to examine how local level risk management, especially risk assessments, of floods and drinking water supply have been or can be performed in practice in Sweden. The existing practices have been characterised in relation to current risk management frameworks. Furthermore, the thesis aims to investigate how the effects of flood on drinking water supply have been considered in risk assessment methods and in flood risk management plans, as well as whether flood and drinking water risks have been considered in an integrated manner. The studies are based on interviews with flood risk managers in Swedish municipalities and Swedish water producers as well as on document studies of risk assessment methods and flood risk management plans. There are large variations between different municipalities and water producers in how, and to what extent, risk assessments have been performed. Some have performed very little, if any, risk assessment while others have worked systematically. The tools used are often those that are promoted by national agencies and are often less advanced than those described in the literature. The risk assessments do not always cover all relevant aspects of the risk and few actors have discussed an acceptable risk level. Flood risk assessments focus mostly on the exposure of objects to flood and investigate the consequences of such an exposure only to a limited extent. The incomplete risk assessments may result in a biased view of the risk which in turn can lead to poor decision-making. The theoretical knowledge about risk management is in many cases low and there is still often a practical approach. Strategic and holistic approaches are mostly lacking. The consequences of flood on drinking water supply are not known in detail and are not considered in detail in risk assessments commonly used in Sweden. There is an awareness of the need to coordinate the management of flood and water resources. However, despite the good intentions regarding integration, there are few signs in the risk assessments and risk management plans that integration is actually occurring. Both the risk management approach and integrated management have started to be implemented in Swedish flood and drinking water risk management. It is however on a basic level and it is still a long way to go. Further guidance and knowledge about risk management as well as commitment from and collaboration among all actors concerned is needed to make this development possible. / Vatten är en livsnödvändig men sårbar resurs. Brist på dricksvatten av god kvalitet är ett allvarligt hot mot människors hälsa och för hela samhället. Även överflöd av vatten i form av översvämningar kan vara ett allvarligt hot och kan bland annat får konsekvenser för dricksvattenförsörjningen. För att minska dessa risker finns det behov av systematiskt riskreducerande arbete. De senaste decennierna har systematisk riskhantering (risk management approach) utvecklats inom hanteringen av översvämningar och dricksvattenförsörjning. Detta innebär att en reaktiv och osystematisk hantering ersätts med en mer proaktiv och systematisk hantering baserad på analys och utvärdering av risker som stöd för beslutsfattande. Den komplexitet som vattenfrågor omfattar har också gjort det tydligt att det finns behov av en helhetsyn på hur vatten hanteras och att ett flertal aktörer och sektorer behöver involveras. Teorier om integrerad hantering (integrated management) har vuxit fram och börjat implementeras. Syftet med denna avhandling är att undersöka hur riskhantering, särskilt riskbedömningar, på lokal nivå utförs eller kan utföras i praktiken i Sverige. Praktiken har beskrivits och karakteriserats i förhållande till befintliga ramverk om riskhantering. Dessutom är syftet att undersöka hur konsekvenser av översvämningar på dricksvattenförsörjningen behandlas i metoder för riskbedömning och riskhanteringsplaner för översvämning liksom att studera om risker relaterade till översvämningar och dricksvatten har behandlats på ett integrerat sätt. Studierna är baserad på intervjuer med översvämningshanterare i svenska kommuner och svenska vattenproducenter samt dokumentstudier av metoder för riskbedömning och riskhanteringsplaner för översvämning. Det är stora skillnader mellan hur och i vilken omfattning olika kommuner och vattenproducenter har gjort riskbedömningar. Vissa har knappt gjort någon riskbedömning alls medan andra har arbetat mer systematiskt. De verktyg som används är ofta de som finns i handböcker från svenska myndigheter och är ofta mindre avancerade än vad som beskrivs i litteraturen. Riskbedömningarna täcker inte alltid all relevanta aspekter av risken och det är få som har diskuterat vad som är en acceptabel risknivå. Översvämningsbedömningarna har fokuserat på vilka objekt som exponeras vid en översvämning och möjliga konsekvenser på drabbade objekt har undersökts i mycket begränsad utsträckning. Ofullständiga riskbedömningar kan ge en felaktig bild av risken och därmed vara ett inkomplett underlag för beslutsfattande. Den teoretiska kunskapen om riskhantering är i många fall låg och många har en praktisk inställning till riskhanteringen. Det saknas oftast strategi och helhetstänkande. Kunskapen om konsekvenser av översvämning på dricksvattenförsörjningen är begränsad och behandlas inte heller i detalj i de metoder för riskbedömning som är mest vanligt förekommande i Sverige. Det finns en medvetenhet om behovet av att koordinera hanteringen av översvämning och vattenresurser. Trots de goda intentionerna om integrering visar riskbedömningar och riskhanteringsplaner få tecken på att integrering sker i praktiken. Både systematisk riskhantering och integrerad hantering är synsätt som har börjat utvecklas och implementeras inom svensk hantering av översvämningar och dricksvattenförsörjning. Det sker dock fortfarande på en relativt grundläggande nivå och det är en lång väg kvar. Det finns behov av ytterligare vägledning och mer kunskap om riskhantering liksom engagemang från och samarbete mellan alla berörda aktörer för att stödja vidare utveckling.

Structural health monitoring and building assessment are crucial to acquire structures’ states and maintain their conditions. Besides human-labor surveys that are subjective, time-consuming, and expensive, autonomous image and video analysis is a faster, more efficient, and non-destructive way. This thesis focuses on crack detection from videos, crack segmentation from images, and building assessment from street view images. For crack detection from videos, three approaches are proposed based on local binary pattern (LBP) and support vector machine (SVM), deep convolution neural network (DCNN), and fully-connected network (FCN). A parametric Naïve Bayes data fusion scheme is introduced that registers video frames in a spatiotemporal coordinate system and fuses information based on Bayesian probability to increase detection precision. For crack segmentation from images, the rotation-invariant property of crack is utilized to enhance the segmentation accuracy. The architectures of several approximately rotation-invariant DCNNs are discussed and compared using several crack datasets. For building assessment from street view images, a framework of multiple DCNNs is proposed to detect buildings and predict their attributes that are crucial for flood risk estimation, including founding heights, foundation types (pier, slab, mobile home, or others), building types (commercial, residential, or mobile home), and building stories. A feature fusion scheme is proposed that combines image feature with meta information to improve the predictions, and a task relation encoding network (TREncNet) is introduced that encodes task relations as network connections to enhance multi-task learning.