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Financial Analysts' Forecast Precision : Swedish EvidencePersonne, Karl, Pääjärvi, Sandra January 2013 (has links)
The future is uncertain. We therefore make predictions and forecasts of the future in order to be able to plan and react to future events. For this purpose, financial analysts are argued to have a responsibility towards investors and the market, in helping to keep the market efficient. Given that financial analysts act in a rational way we argue that analysts should strive to maximize forecast accuracy. The purpose of this study is to investigate how accurate financial analysts’ forecasts of Swedish firms’ future values are, and what information that analysts use that significantly affect the analysts’ forecast accuracy. To investigate this we first examine whether financial analysts contribute with value to investors by comparing their forecast precision against a simple time-series model. Our findings show that financial analysts produce significantly more accurate forecasts than a time-series model in the short term. Furthermore, given that rational analysts act in their own best interest while making accurate forecasts, we argue that analysts will incorporate and use the information that is available to them for the purpose of maximizing forecast accuracy. We investigate this by testing if the analysts’ forecast accuracy is affected by; the forecast horizon, the number of analysts following a firm, the firm size, the corporate visibility, the predictability of earnings, and trading volume. We find that the forecast accuracy is better when the amount of analysts following a firm is high, the firm size is larger, the forecasted company’s corporate visibility in the news is more frequent, and the predictability of earnings is higher. The trading volume does not have a significant effect on analysts’ forecast accuracy. To conclude, we question the value of financial analysts’ forecasts for longer forecast horizons.
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Direkta och indirekta effekter av noter : För aktörer på en aktiemarknadHuang, Jimmy, Larsson, Tim January 2020 (has links)
Abstract Title: Direct and indirect effect of notes – for actors in a stock market Background: Notes make up a significant part of the company´s annual report, but does this information have any major impact? On one side, notes should lead to less information asymmetry, which positively affects the stock market and financial analysts forecasting precision as well as this relationship depends on different contexts. The question is also asked if all information presented in the notes is too extensive, which creates information overload for financial analysts. Purpose: The purpose is to explain the effects of more information in accounting notes for actors in equity markets in different contexts that have the same accounting standard. Method: The study applies a cross-sectional design together with a deductive approach to investigate whether the amount of note information has a relationship with financial analysts forecasting precision, stock volatility and stock liquidity. For these relationships, moderating effects will also be tested. The hypotheses arose through theories of asymmetric information, effective market hypothesis, cognitive load theory and system-orientated theories. Conclusion: The study rejects the relationship between note information and errors in financial analyst forecast, stock volatility as well as stock liquidity. However, the results show a significant positive relationship between note information and error in forecasting precision. Financial analyst forecasting precision show that the relationship is affected by three different contexts. Despite the relationship between note information and stock liquidity were rejected when tested on the overall sample is the relationship affected by two different contexts. / Sammanfattning Titel: Direkta och indirekta effekter av noter - För aktörer på en aktiemarknad Bakgrund: Noter utgör en väsentlig del av företags årsredovisning men har den informationen någon större påverkan? På ena sidan bör noter leda till mindre informationsasymmetri, vilket påverkar aktiemarknaden och finansiella analytikers prognosprecision positivt samt att detta samband även beror på olika kontexter. Frågan ställs även ifall informationen som presenteras i notavsnittet är för omfattande, vilket skapar informationsöverbelastning för finansiella analytiker. Syfte: Syftet är att förklara effekten av ökad delgivande av information i redovisningsnoter på aktörer på aktiemarknaden i olika kontexter som tillämpar samma redovisningsstandard. Metod: Studien tillämpar en tvärrsnittsdesign tillsammans med en deduktiv ansats för att undersöka ifall mängden notinformation har något samband med finansiella analytikers prognosprecision, aktievolatilitet och aktielikviditet För dessa samband testas även modererande effekter. Hypoteserna uppstod genom teorierna asymmetrisk information, effektiva marknadshypotesen, kognitiv belastningsteori och systemorienterade teorier. Slutsats: Studien förkastar sambandet mellan notinformation och fel i prognosprecision, aktievolatilitet och aktielikviditet. Däremot visar resultatet ett positivt signifikant samband mellan notinformation och fel i prognosprecision. Finansiella analytikers prognosprecision uppvisar även att sambandet påverkas av tre olika kontexter. Trots att sambandet mellan notinformation och aktielikviditet förkastas när den testas på en övergripande nivå, påverkas sambandet av två olika kontexter.
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