The goal of this master's thesis is to evaluate the successfulness of the strategies' portfolio and of trading and trending indicators, which are parts of the portfolio, through this evaluation. The theoretical part concerns with the key principles of the foreign exchange market which the portfolio is created for. After that, the individual technical indicators, which are used in the analytical part of the thesis, are analyzed in detail. Then in the following part, the development process of automated trading systems in case of the genetic algorithms' application is defined. Individual generated trading systems are described in the next segment separately. Their descriptions are followed by evaluation of outcomes of testing on historical data and of robustness' tests. Afterwards, the correlations between individual strategies are mentioned. The thesis concludes by efficiency evaluation of strategies' portfolio via backtest results and paper testing.

This thesis focuses on monetary policy transmission and particularly seeks to examine the impact of credit and exchange rate channels of monetary policy transmission in the South African economy. South Africa's monetary policy has gone through several changes over the past thirty years. In this respect, there is a need for robust empirical evidence on the effects of these channels on inflation and output. The thesis employs a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model to identify monetary transmission in South Africa for the period 1994:q4 - 2008:q2. The form of the SVAR used in this thesis is based on the fact that South Africa is a small open economy, which means that external shocks are an important driver of domestic activity. The impulse responses and variance decomposition results show that the repo rate, credit and exchange rate play a role in terms of their impact on inflation and output. The dynamic responses to the identified monetary policy shock are consistent with standard theory and highlight the importance of the interest rate channel. A shock to the interest rate, increasing it by one standard deviation, results in a persistent fall in credit. The response of output is immediate as it falls and bottoms out within the second year. Inflation shows a lagged response, it is positive within the first year as the exchange rate depreciates but in subsequent quarters inflation responds negatively as expected. Inflation falls and reaches a minimum by approximately eight quarters then moves towards baseline. The exchange rate shows delayed appreciation. The shock to the repo interest rate leads to an immediate depreciation of the exchange rate in the first two quarters as output declines, followed by an appreciation in the third and sixth quarter. Due to larger error bounds the impact of the repo rate on the exchange rate could be less effective within the first two years. The impulse responses suggest that monetary policy plays an effective role in stabilising the economy in response to a credit shock, notwithstanding large standard error bounds. Hence, the monetary authority reacts by increasing the repo rate as a result of inflation. The impact of credit on output is positive but is offset to some extent by the rising repo rate. In response to the rand appreciation, the monetary authority reduces the repo rate significantly during the first year with the maximum impact in the second year and then returns to baseline thereafter. Therefore the monetary authority reduces the repo rate, probably to stabilise falling inflation. The result shows that inflation falls as a result of the rand appreciation. A shock to the exchange rate causes a rise in output, though small in magnitude, which is persistent but reaches baseline at the end of the period. This result could reflect the effects of the resultant fall in the repo rate and a persistent rise in credit over the whole period, which tends to increase output. The exchange rate shows an obvious and stronger immediate impact on inflation compared to credit impact on inflation. However, the credit shock has an obvious and stronger impact on output compared to an exchange rate impact on output. However, the large standard error bounds may imply that credit and exchange rate channels are not as effective in the short run. It is important to note that the results are based on the SVAR model estimated with percentage growth rate of the variables. The variance decomposition result is in line with the impulse responses and shows that the exchange rate and credit channels could be important transmission channels in South Africa over the chosen sample period. The exchange rate and credit shocks show a stronger effect on inflation than on output, looking at both the impulse responses and variance decomposition results. The reaction of the repo interest rate to the credit and exchange rate shocks comes out as expected. The repo rate increases as a result of an increase in the credit and falls as a result of the currency appreciation.

The results of this thesis suggest that investors should invest in portfolios consisting of the Standard and Poor's 500, the Ten Composite Index and the ten founding stock exchanges, rather than only invest in either the ten founding stock exchanges or Standard and Poor's 500.

The object of master's thesis is to introduce to the financial derivatives and principals of trading on financial markets. We describe the methods used to search for arbitrage opportunities through statistical indicators and statistical characteristics, which are an integral part of the automatized trading systems. Analysis of the financial market is based on data derived from the interbank market.

This dissertation consists of three essays, each examining distinct dimensions of cross-sectional variation in exchange rate changes and currency returns conditional on macroeconomic variables. Chapter 2: Protectionism, Bilateral Integration, and the Cross-Section of Ex-change Rate Returns in US Presidential Debates We study the impact of US presidential election TV debates on intraday exchange rates of 96 currencies from 1996 to 2016. Expectations about protectionist measures are the main transmission channel of debate outcomes. Currencies of countries with high levels of bilateral foreign trade with the US depreciate if the election probability of the protectionist candidate increases during the debate. We rationalize our results in a model where a debate victory of a protectionist candidate raises expectations about future tariffs and reduces future net exports to the US, resulting in relative depreciation of currencies with high bilateral trade integration. Chapter 3: Global Portfolio Network and Currency Risk Premia External portfolio investments of countries can explain cross-sectional variation in currency risk premia. Using bilateral portfolio holdings of 26 countries from 2001 to 2021, I construct a network centrality measure where a country is central if it is integrated with key countries that account for a large share in the supply of tradeable financial assets. I find that currency excess returns and interest rates decrease in network centrality. The network centralities are persistent over time and offer a country-specific economic source of risk that are able to explain robust differences in currency risk premia. Empirical asset pricing tests show that the derived risk factor is priced in a cross-section of currency portfolios. Further, negative global shocks cause currencies of central countries to appreciate, while currencies of peripheral countries depreciate. I discuss the findings with implications of a consumption-based capital asset pricing model where central countries have lower consumption growth in high marginal utility states, resulting in an appreciation of their currencies. Chapter 4: FX Dealer Constraints and External Imbalances We study the impact of FX dealer banks' financial health on the cross-sectional variation of exchange rates. Using individual balance sheet information of 39 dealers, we derive an intermediary constraints index that captures the risk-bearing capacity of intermediaries. A deterioration of the solvency of dealer banks impairs their risk-bearing capacity and increases their marginal value of wealth. We test the theoretical prediction of Gabaix and Maggiori (2015) that tightening financial constraints of intermediaries are associated with increasing currency risk premia in the cross-section of the riskiness of currencies, as measured by the net foreign assets of countries. We combine dealer-specific risks to macroeconomic fundamentals of a cross-section of currencies, i.e., the indebtedness to foreigners measured by countries' net foreign assets. We show that currency excess returns increase with a country's external imbalances when constraints are relaxed, but debtor currencies experience a depreciation when constraints tighten.

The revolutionisation of international economies and monetary systems has been taking place since the early 1970s. This occurred due to the diminishing fixed exchange rate systems of, initially, the Gold Standard and subsequently the Bretton Woods System. The collapse of these systems, especially the Bretton Woods System, led to the almost free movement of exchange rates. The lack of restriction placed on the movement of currencies created volatile markets; which, in turn, gave rise to an innumerable amount of risks. In Correia, Holman and Jahreskog (2012) it was determined that an astonishing 74% of non-financial firms in South Africa hedge foreign exchange risk (the risk of currency movement). The 10% of firms which did not hedge any risks declared it was due to the lack of exposure to foreign exchange risks and that the cost of acquiring a hedging contract, in many cases, exceeded the contract’s benefits. In the aforementioned study it was also established that the extractive sector of South Africa is one of the industries referring from the use of hedges. The intention of this study is to improve the effectiveness of derivative instruments for companies in the extractive sector of South Africa exporting to the United States of America. South Africa is a large exporter and importer of goods, making it extremely important for market participants to determine the movement of the exchange rates. This estimates the amount of risk a company is willing to take and the amount of hedges they will use to protect themselves against inauspicious and adverse movements in the markets. Therefore, incorporated in this study is the use of risk management tools from the technical analysis to predict the exchange rates at which companies should have set their hedging contracts on specific dates. This analysis could enable companies to perform an internal control that is inexpensive and which reduces risks of foreign exporting. / MCom (Management Accountancy), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2014

The revolutionisation of international economies and monetary systems has been taking place since the early 1970s. This occurred due to the diminishing fixed exchange rate systems of, initially, the Gold Standard and subsequently the Bretton Woods System. The collapse of these systems, especially the Bretton Woods System, led to the almost free movement of exchange rates. The lack of restriction placed on the movement of currencies created volatile markets; which, in turn, gave rise to an innumerable amount of risks. In Correia, Holman and Jahreskog (2012) it was determined that an astonishing 74% of non-financial firms in South Africa hedge foreign exchange risk (the risk of currency movement). The 10% of firms which did not hedge any risks declared it was due to the lack of exposure to foreign exchange risks and that the cost of acquiring a hedging contract, in many cases, exceeded the contract’s benefits. In the aforementioned study it was also established that the extractive sector of South Africa is one of the industries referring from the use of hedges. The intention of this study is to improve the effectiveness of derivative instruments for companies in the extractive sector of South Africa exporting to the United States of America. South Africa is a large exporter and importer of goods, making it extremely important for market participants to determine the movement of the exchange rates. This estimates the amount of risk a company is willing to take and the amount of hedges they will use to protect themselves against inauspicious and adverse movements in the markets. Therefore, incorporated in this study is the use of risk management tools from the technical analysis to predict the exchange rates at which companies should have set their hedging contracts on specific dates. This analysis could enable companies to perform an internal control that is inexpensive and which reduces risks of foreign exporting. / MCom (Management Accountancy), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2014

My diploma thesis discusses the power and importance of money management when trading foreign exchange market. With the help of real examples it aims to demonstrate the difficulty of the future foreign exchange rate estimation and the ambiguousness of the market analyses results. Comparing the results of real trading in the spirit of diversification to the actual results of Vince's model, the thesis points out whether the application of diversification is a real necessity or not. The thesis also highlights the impact of diversification on the trading system performance compared to Vince's model. The final part proposes a possible practical accounting solution to the foreign exchange speculative trades.

This thesis studies the history of the Scandinavian Currency Union, 1873-1924. It is divided into four analytical chapters, each dealing with a different aspect of the Union and each written as a separate paper. The conclusions of the thesis challenge existing views of the Union and examines new aspects of this episode in monetary history. It poses new questions and exploits and evaluates new sources. The first paper offers an original interpretation of the role of Scandinavianism in the monetary reform of 1873-1875. It is argued that its importance has been both exaggerated and misinterpreted. In fact, the monetary integration of those years was principally motivated by economic considerations. The second paper deals with inter Scandinavian monetary cooperation during the period 1873-1914. It argues that the process of monetary integration, later followed by disintegration, during these decades is best understood in the context of a trade off between financial efficiency and national economic vulnerability.  It provides a comprehensive analysis of the motives that underlay the principal extensions of the Union’s institutional framework.This includes, the formation, cancellation and renegotiation of the formal, Union based, clearing agreement, as well as the process leading to the free circulation of all Scandinavian notes throughout the currency area.The third paper studies the level of integration and efficiency of the Scandinavian foreign exchange market throughout the period. The paper applies theories and methods from modern economics and finance on a new set of historical financial data. It concludes that the currency union generally, and the clearing agreement in particular, significantly increased the degree of market integration. It also concludes that, during most of the period, the Scandinavian foreign exchange market was characterized by perfect arbitrage and efficiency. The final paper challenges the prevailing scholarly view of the dissolution of the Union. It argues that the break up resulted from the asymmetric shocks that the three countries experienced during World War I. These shocks, which differed as a result of varying national economic policies and structures, created tensions that required exchange rate adjustments to be resolved. / <p>Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2004</p>

Univ., Diss.--Würzburg, 2005.