經由研究一個輸入序列的轉換模式來關注結構性變化之偵測與處理。 / Time series data are often subject to uncontrolled or unexpected interventions, from which various types of outlying observations or structure changes are produced. In this article, we focus on detecting and treating structure change events in multiple time series by studying transfer function models with one input series. Monte Carlo simulations will be used to study the performance of the proposed procedures.

<p>In this thesis we address the problem of how to construct an optimal algorithm for displaying banners (i.e advertisements shown on web sites). The optimization is based on the revenue each banner generates, with the aim of selecting those banners which maximize future total revenue. Banner optimality is of major importance in the e-commerce industry, in particular on web sites with heavy traffic. The 'micropayments' from showing banners add up to substantial profits due to the large volumes involved. We provide a broad, up-to-date and primarily theoretical treatment of this global optimization problem. Through a synthesis of mathematical modeling, statistical methodology and computer science we construct a stochastic 'planning algorithm'. The superiority of our algorithm is based on empirical analysis conducted by us on real internet-data at TradeDoubler AB, as well as test-results on a selection of stylized data-sets. The algorithm is flexible and adapts well to new environments.</p>

In this thesis we address the problem of how to construct an optimal algorithm for displaying banners (i.e advertisements shown on web sites). The optimization is based on the revenue each banner generates, with the aim of selecting those banners which maximize future total revenue. Banner optimality is of major importance in the e-commerce industry, in particular on web sites with heavy traffic. The 'micropayments' from showing banners add up to substantial profits due to the large volumes involved. We provide a broad, up-to-date and primarily theoretical treatment of this global optimization problem. Through a synthesis of mathematical modeling, statistical methodology and computer science we construct a stochastic 'planning algorithm'. The superiority of our algorithm is based on empirical analysis conducted by us on real internet-data at TradeDoubler AB, as well as test-results on a selection of stylized data-sets. The algorithm is flexible and adapts well to new environments.

The deregulation of the Electricity Sector in US has led to a tremendous increase in the inter-regional wholesale electricity trade between neighboring utilities or regions. For instance, the generation deficit regions may choose to import power from surplus regions; thus the wholesale electricity market prices in the regions are also affected by the dynamics of its electricity trade with other regions. Valuable insights into such imports/exports ahead of time have become crucial market intelligence for the various academicians and the market players associated with the industry. In this thesis, the task of short-term forecasting of the power flows over three major transmission interties of the Pacific Northwest region, namely the Pacific AC Intertie, the Pacific DC Intertie and the Northern Intertie, is successfully accomplished. The Pacific AC and the Pacific DC interties connect the Pacific Northwest region of US with the state of California. The Northern Intertie is the only intertie connecting the British Columbia region in Canada with the Pacific Northwest US. Box-Jenkins ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) and Transfer function methodologies are used as the statistical tools to identify the forecasting models in this thesis. The data requirement for all of the models is restricted to publicly available data. / Master of Science