Global ETD Search

1	Teaching Design in the Year 2000: A Modified Delphi Study of the Perceptions of Design Educators Watson, James Robert, 1950- 05 1900 (has links) The problem of this study is to predict how basic design will be taught in the year 2000 in the United States of America according to the perceptions of design educators who were polled using a Delphi exercise. Basic design is an introductory course in design disciplines covering fundamental principles, components, and applications of design. This study has a twofold purpose. The first is to predict how basic design will be taught in the year 2000 to allow design educators to better prepare for the future. The second is to provide a basis for further research that might address specific areas in the future of teaching design. Delphi method futures forecasting design study communication techniques Design -- Study and teaching. forecasting methods
2	Cultures of forecasting : volatile and vulnerable nature, knowledge, and the future of uncertainty Bobbette, Adam January 2018 (has links) Adam Bobbette Cultures of Forecasting: Volatile and Vulnerable Nature, Knowledge, and the Future of Uncertainty Summary This dissertation is a cultural history and ethnography of volatile nature forecasting. It looks at the ways that the future of nature is known in highly unpredictable contexts through a broad history of modernist nature forecasting and an ethnography of state scientists, shamans, and a sultans retinue on the active volcano, Mount Merapi, Indonesia. The project aims to understand how practices of forecasting generate futures, mobilize, and organise anticipation, how time is known, and populations governed. It looks at the way that publics emerge through forecasting technologies, and how futures and nature-culture relations are contested. It follows the practices of scientists in volcano and tsunami observatories, in planes tracking tropical storms, and bunkers dug into active volcanoes; at how instruments and technologies such as seismographs, windows, globes, speakers, and electrical tomography, mediate and transform relations with nature, the future, and governance. It considers too, the role of architecture, shamanism, and the state in appropriating and governing uncertainty. By following the fieldwork of geophysicists and volcanologists in observatories and the edge of the caldera of Mount Merapi, as well as spirit possession practices, and the ritual offerings of a sultan, I demonstrate how practices of forecasting are making contested futures lived in the present, and forging infrastructures and tools for their longevity. Forecasting, I demonstrate, is a cultural technique that negotiates the porous borders between the human, nature, and the future.
3	Natural gas storage level forecasting using temperature data Sundin, Daniel January 2020 (has links) Even though the theory of storage is historically a popular view to explain commodity futures prices, many authors focus on the oil price link. Past studies have shown an increased futures price volatility on Mondays and days when natural gas storage levels are released, which could both implicate that storage levels and temperature data are incorporated in the prices. In this thesis, the U.S. natural gas storage level change is studied as a function of the consumption and production. Consumption and production are furthered segmented and separately forecasted by modelling inverse problems that are solved by least squares regression using temperature data and timeseries analysis. The results indicate that each consumer consumption segment is highly dependent of the temperature with R2-values of above 90%. However, modelling each segment completely by time-series analysis proved to be more efficient due to lack of flexibility in the polynomials, lack of used weather stations and seasonal patterns in addition to the temperatures. Although the forecasting models could not beat analysts’ consensus estimates, these present natural gas storage level drivers and can thus be used to incorporate temperature forecasts when estimating futures prices. Natural gas storage forecasting Natural gas storage Natural gas Storage forecasting Forecasting Futures Futures forecasting Natural gas futures forecasting Least squares regression Regression Machine learning Exponential Weighted Moving Average Moving Average EWMA MA Seasonality Commodity futures Optimisation Inverse problems Consumption forecasting Production Forecasting Residential Commercial Industrial Electric power NOAA EIA Pipelines Polynomial Weather stations Mathematics Matematik

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