Includes bibliographical references. / This study contributes to a broader effort of institutions toward improving seasonal forecasts over southern Africa. The primary objective is to understand where global models show shortcomings in their simulations, and how this impacts on their seasonal forecast skill. It is proposed that the skill of a model in simulating natural climate variability is an appropriate metric for a model's potential skill in seasonal forecasting. Thus the study investigates the performance of two global models in simulating the regional processes in relation to the processes variability, and how this is related to their forecast skill.

Includes bibliographical references. / The Swartland is a region of sparse natural vegetation, consisting of primarily dry-land crop farming. The area is particualarly sensitive to the changing Meditterranean-type climatic conditions and is characterised by undulating terrain and a history of land degradation and soil erosion. This thesis therefore considers how future climate change may impact on soil loss in such a climatically sensitive region of central economic significance for southern Africa.

Includes abstract. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 195-219). / The regional climate model RegCM3 is used to investigate the direct and semi-direct aerosol effects on the southern African climate during the austral winter season (June-September). The sensitivity of simulated aerosol-climate effects to different biomass burning inventories, boundary conditions and sea surface temperature (SST) feedbacks is tested to assess the range of uncertainty associated with these parameters.

Climate geoengineering technologies are being increasingly investigated by Earth system science researchers to mitigate climate change. Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) is one such option that is popularly debated as a potential measure to offset anthropogenic warming, while signatories of the Paris Agreement make efforts to reduce emissions and limit warming to 1.5°C. Most modelling studies to date have assessed the projected impact of SAI on global and regional scales, while a little has been done at country scale. Similarly, research into the effectiveness of varying injection characteristics is limited especially in a developing world. As a developing country rife with inequality, poverty, and disease burden, South Africa is highly susceptible to the increasing frequency and magnitude of temperature and precipitation extremes due to anthropogenic warming. The aim of this study is to investigate how SAI deployment would influence temperature and precipitation extremes over South Africa's climatic zones in the future (2075–2095). Climate model simulations from the Geoengineering Large Ensemble (GLENS) project are used to conduct a comparative analysis of what a future with and without SAI (under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) would look like in South Africa. Using a selection of extreme temperature and precipitation indices from the “Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices” (ETCCDI), the impact of three SAI feedback experiments (GLENS, Equatorial SAI and Lower SAI) is investigated to provide insight into the effectiveness of different injection characteristics. The results indicate that in a future without SAI, the frequency of hot nights (TN90P: +45-60%) and hot days (TX90P: +15-50%) would increase, with north-east SAF projected to become the most vulnerable to extreme warming. Heavy precipitation days (R10MM) and total precipitation (PRCPTOT) are projected to decrease across most SAF's climatic zones (–0.5-2 days/year and –20-70 mm/year, respectively). The KwaZulu-Natal coast is the only region with projected increases in the number of heavy precipitation days and total precipitation (up to +2.5 days/year and +70 mm/year, respectively), and subsequent flood conditions. Overall, all three SAI feedback experiments (to varying degrees) are projected to reduce temperature and precipitation anomalies over SAF. SAI is projected to trigger a nationwide cooling effect with increased frequency of cool nights (TN10P: +1-4%) and cool days (TX10P: up to +3%). This could alleviate heat-induced strain on human health, agricultural production, and the harsh effects of climate extremes on South Africa's most vulnerable communities. The projected general reductions in PRCPTOT (–10-60%) and R10MM (–1-4 days/year) could have negative implications for water security and agricultural production for the country. Injecting sulfate aerosols into the Equatorial and Lower stratosphere could cause larger decreases in precipitation extremes than in the feedback experiment. These findings should be read with caution as they are specific to the types of SAI deployed in the GLENS project.

Coastal communities are dependent on marine resources which provide their households with food and income. Fishing communities are considered the poorest of the poor and face many challenges that render them vulnerable. Climate change further exacerbates these challenges making fishing communities amongst the most vulnerable groups to coastalrelated risks including sea-level rise and extreme weather events. Often, these fishing communities are neglected and excluded from policies and decisions concerning coastal and fisheries management as well as climate change adaptation. Management is often fragmented across institutions that are mandated to govern coastal resources and coastal areas. The study uses Buffeljagsbaai as a case study lens to understand the nature of coastal risks faced by marginalized coastal communities on the south west coast of the Western Cape Province in South Africa. It investigates how coastal risks related to climatic, social and economic factors affect livelihoods and examines the roles of various institutions in responding to, engaging with, and supporting the Buffeljagsbaai community as they confront coastal risks. Qualitative data collection methods were used to address the objectives of this study and included semi-structured interviews with community members and officials in relevant government institutions, as well as facilitated a community focus group discussions and participant observation. The analysis revealed coastal- related risks have a major impact on the livelihoods of coastal communities. However, over time, the community has diversified their livelihoods in order to adapt to these risks. Findings reveal that women in the case study site have developed more diverse livelihoods making them more resilient to climate change than the fishermen, who are largely dependent on fishing and are consequently more vulnerable to coastal- related risks. In addition, the community has not been given access to coastal resources and where permits have been issued, these have many restrictions. As a result, the community has resorted to “poaching” to provide food and an income for their households. The government institutions that are responsible for various aspects of resource management, disaster risk reduction, poverty alleviation and socio-economic development, are largely absent in the community. The lack of government presence in and support to this community, also referred to as limited statehood, has led to distrust and the reliance on non-governmental organisations and other stakeholders to fill this gap.

Screening is an essential stage within the environmental impact assessment (EIA) process. In this stage, the type and scale of the environmental assessment are determined based on the potential environmental impacts of a development. The South African Department of Forestry, Fisheries, and the Environment (DFFE) has implemented a national web-based spatial screening tool which became mandatory when applying for environmental authorisation as of October 2019. The screening tool identifies environmental sensitivities and prescribes the relevant specialist assessments associated with a development footprint. Since the introduction of the screening tool, environmental assessment professionals' (EAProfs') perceptions regarding the functioning of the tool remain undetermined. Therefore, this research project aims to undertake a preliminary assessment of EAProfs' perceptions of the screening tool's accuracy and utility. A mixed-methods approach involving interviews and an online survey was used to collect qualitative and quantitative data from EAProfs, respectively. The research findings reveal mixed perceptions of the screening tool but with some more unequivocal findings. The results suggest EAProfs generally do not believe the screening tool accurately assigns sensitivity ratings for the various biodiversity themes. In terms of utility, the research found that EAProfs hold a neutral opinion meaning they do not believe the screening tool is useful or not useful, as per the survey. The interviews revealed that several EAProfs believe that the screening tool increases the time and costs of the EIA process, adding nuance to the survey results. Based on these findings, a recommended solution to the accuracy issues is to implement a specialist feedback loop. Additionally, better communication from the DFFE on the process of assigning sensitivity ratings could also enhance perceptions. A potential way forward is for the screening tool to adopt a less prescriptive and more voluntary approach, as used by CapeFarmMapper and Ireland's Environmental Sensitivity Mapping Webtool. Lastly, this research opens avenues for further work on how the accuracy and utility of the screening tool can be improved.

Kelp are large seaweeds that provide a variety of contributions to humans and the environment. In South Africa, kelps forests are expanding as a consequence of climate change. In light of this expansion, assessing perceptions and values around kelp may contribute to the implementation of successful marine resource management initiatives. The lack of consideration of non-market values is a gap in kelp valuation studies with kelp ecosystems and their use rarely valued outside of classical economic valuation frameworks. This study aims to fill this research gap, with the intention to elicit perceptions about other value dimensions related to kelp. The study investigates the attitudes and perceptions of value of three groups of actors' (Recreational Users and/or Coastal Community Members, Environmental Managers and Conservationists, and Kelp and/or Abalone Industry Actors) towards kelp in the Western Cape region of South Africa. This is done using the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services' (IPBES) conceptual framework, that considers: (i) kelp as a facet of nature, and (ii) kelp's contributions to people as foci of value that contribute to quality of life. The results of the study indicate that the perceived value of kelp extends far beyond its economic value as a harvested resource. Rather, actors highly value kelp's ecological and social contributions, and have strong relational values towards kelp, recognizing its role in enhancing their quality of life and well-being. Areas of dissonances in valuing kelp's contributions — such as differences in perceptions around kelp's ability to increase one's safety from extreme natural events, or its importance as a source of food and feed for domestic animals — are attributed to individuals' held values as well as their socio-demographic characteristics and situational contexts. While actors did not display significant negative perceptions around kelp, Kelp and/or Abalone Industry Actors indicated frustrations with kelp management strategies and kelp concession permit allocation processes. In turn, 27% of Kelp and/or Abalone Industry Actors perceived inequality in the kelp sector, contributing to a reduction in their appreciation of kelp. The dissertation makes a case for integrated marine resource management solutions aimed towards just and sustainable futures through the recognition of the plurality and complexity of values around kelp. A critique of the IPBES conceptual framework as a methodology is also included, suggesting that its utility is dependent on the objectives of its application. It is recommended that NCP should be considered within the context of governance and access dimensions to elicit a holistic view on assigned values and perceptions towards nature.

Entrepreneurial approaches advocated as pathways for addressing development goals of unemployment and inequality have been heavily criticised. Critical development scholarship argues that entrepreneurship for development contributes to the deepening hegemony of neoliberal logics (market and finance). I argue that there is scope to problematise the claims of the power and centrality of neoliberal economic logics by viewing these logics in relation with social ones such as trust, morality, reciprocity, exchange, justice (among others). Towards these ends, I focus on social entrepreneurship given the assertions of it being a hybrid field combining the logics of the private sector (markets, finance) with those of the state and civil society (socio-economic change) to deepen efficiency in addressing development goals. Specifically, I focus on a qualitative study based on ethnographic principles of thick description of the meso in-between scales (that is between macro-perspectives on social entrepreneurship and micro-realities of social enterprise practice) in postcolonial emerging economies of South Africa and India. The meso-scale is made up of intermediary organisations providing support services, networking spaces and knowledge to start and grow enterprises geared towards development goals. An analysis of these intermediaries enabled a view into three interlinked issues that I demonstrate in the thesis. One, applying and deploying entrepreneurial approaches like social entrepreneurship produces significant tensions as practitioners attempt to align with economic logics of market and finance, while dealing with complex development challenges. Two, the daily work of intermediaries is fraught with confusions as they attempt to balance out economic and social logics, often resulting in visible leanings towards measurable categories to manage the arising difficulties. Finally, as intermediaries navigate entangled economic and social logics, the ambivalent nature of their work emerges. It is precisely this inchoate and ambivalent nature of practice that problematises the centrality of neoliberal economic logics within development, leading to considerations that power between economic and social logics is negotiated relationally, in an on-going, uncertain manner.

Humanity is going through a complex process of historical transformation in which the consolidation of a new paradigm – Sustainable Development – is required in order to tackle current unprecedented global crises such as Climate Change and the COVID-19 pandemic. In congruence with this harsh reality, the 2030 Agenda on Sustainable Development can be regarded as an urgent call aimed at individuals, communities, institutions and nations, centred on the imperative need to create the structural foundations of a socially just and environmentally safe world. This research explores different ways in which contemporary music and arts festivals might operate as platforms for enhancing Sustainable Development. The central idea is to explore the way in which music and arts festivals, through strategies of socio-environmental awareness and education, community building and social participation, contribute to the consolidation of sustainable development as a new paradigm. This specific research is centred on the analysis of three organizations, Greenpop and Cape Town Carnival based in South Africa and Green Music Initiative based in Germany: organizations that actively participate in the arrangement and operation of different music and arts festivals. This selection was based on the belief that the analysis of cross-cultural cases enriches the understanding of the way in which festivals can effectively contribute to the process of encouraging the emergence and consolidation of a more sustainable world view. These three organizations are currently facing challenges and opportunities that arise from local and global processes of environmental damage and social exclusion. The key learnings of this research reflect the important role that festivals, through their promotion of creativity and community building, play in the generation of socio-environmental knowledge, in the generation of social cohesion and social capabilities, also in the experimentation and action of possible solutions to environmental global crises such as climate change and land use change. In its final section, this document also presents some of the key learnings that the festival industry has developed from the current COVID-19 pandemic and reflects upon the way in which these learnings can strengthen its role in the consolidation of the sustainable development paradigm.

Climate change has been shown to influence extreme rainfall and flooding events over many river basins, yet there is a dearth of information on how to mitigate future risks and vulnerabilities in the Incomati River Basin (IRB), a basin known for extreme devastating flood events. This thesis investigates the potential impacts of climate change on extreme hydrological events that induce flood in the Incomati River Basin (IRB). A series of climate and hydrological simulation datasets were analysed for the study. The climate simulation datasets were acquired from the Global Meteorological Forcing Dataset (GMFD) and the CO-ordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), but the hydrological simulation datasets were generated with the latest version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (called SWAT+), using GMFD and CORDEX as the climate forcing data. The CORDEX dataset was biased-corrected with GMFD, using the Quantile Delta Mapping (QDM) method. The SWAT+ was calibrated and evaluated over the basin to investigate the role of objective functions in SWAT+ calibration, four sensitivity experiments were performed using four objective functions (hereafter, 1-NSE or RMSE, 1-R 2 and PBIAS). To study the influence of the bias correction of CORDEX on hydrological simulations, the SWAT+ simulations were performed using the original and biased-corrected CORDEX datasets as the climate forcing. The impacts of climate change on the mean hydroclimate variables and on characteristics of extreme hydrological events (i.e. the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation and streamflow events) were examined at four global warming levels (i.e. GWL1.5, GWL2.0, GWL2.5, GWL3.0) under the RCP8.5 future climate scenario. The results of the study show that SWAT+ gives realistic simulations of hydrological processes in the basin, although with notable biases in the simulated streamflow. The SWAT+ calibration over the basin is sensitive to the choice of objective function for the calibration. The calibration converges faster with 1-NSE or RMSE than with R2 or PBIAS. The performance of SWAT+ in simulating the streamflow over the basin depends on the statistical metrics used in the evaluation, while the NSE of the model SWAT+ simulation is poor (i.e. NSE ≈ -0.08) over all the stations, the PBIAS is very good (i.e. PBIAS ≈ 13.7%) at some stations. The bias correction of CORDEX datasets substantially reduces errors in the climate datasets and improves the quality of SWAT+ simulations over the basin. Moreover, it also reduces the level of uncertainty in the simulations. With global warming, a future increase in temperature is projected over the basin, but a decrease in annual precipitation is indicated over most part of the basin except at the south-west tip of the basin (i.e. around Nooitgedacht Dam), where precipitation is projected to increase. The changes in hydrological extreme events generally follows the precipitation pattern, in that, while less intense and less frequent extreme precipitation and streamflow events are projected over most parts of the basin, more intense and more frequent precipitation and streamflow are indicated in the vicinity of the dam. However, the projection also suggests that an increase in extreme precipitation and streamflow activities surrounding this water body could induce extreme streamflow events downstream of the basin. The results of this thesis have applications in mitigating the impacts of climate change on extreme hydrological events in the basin.