The economic crisis of 2007 has had debilitating effects on the global economy, affecting GDP growth, unemployment and trade to name a few. In response to these economic effects, numerous policy interventions were implemented. There are various existing time-series methods available to determine better estimates of GDP growth rates, one of which is Stein’s Paradox which uses observed averages to estimate unobservable quantities which are closer to the true unknown GDP growth rates or theta (θ) in order to determine better growth rates post the economic crisis. The resulting James-Stein estimator (z) is said to be better than the arithmetic average, and thus a closer approximation to the true GDP growth rates which are unobservable. This dissertation analyses the effects of the 2008 financial crisis on the global economy, with specific reference to South Africa and America, and their corresponding policy interventions to determine the growth trajectory after the crisis. The main objective is to determine if better estimates of GDP growth can be calculated using Stein’s Paradox, across a sample of 30 countries, using quarterly GDP growth for the period 2005 to 2008. Annual GDP data was also used for the period 2009-2011, and future GDP growth rates were forecasted for the period 2012 to 2016. To reinforce the Stein’s Paradox, the Monte Carlo study is undertaken. It is used to determine how the James-Stein estimates perform under different conditions using a common c or unique c, and to determine which condition will provide more accurate GDP growth rates (Muthen. 2002). Analysis of time series data across a sample of 30 countries using Stein’s Paradox provided better estimates of GDP growth rates than the individual average growth rates for each country based on the lower standard deviation and total squared error of estimation achieved. This shows that the results are closer to theta and have a smaller amount of error, particularly when a common c was used. The Monte Carlo results indicate that better GDP growth rates are achieved when using a common c instead of a unique c given that a smaller standard deviation and variance is derived. Therefore the Monte Carlo study aims to reinforce or verify Stein’s Paradox. The study also indicates that emerging and developing countries seem to be the driving forces of growth in the future, while developed countries seem to be lagging behind. / Thesis (M.Com.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2013.

The financial crisis that struck financial markets in 2008 was devastating for the global economy. The impact continues to be felt in the market - most recently in sovereign defaults. 1 There are many questions as to the origin of the crisis and how the same events may be prevented in the future. This dissertation explores two financial instruments: securitisation and credit default swaps (CDSs) and attempts to establish the role they played in the financial crisis. To fully understand the events that unfolded before and during the crisis, a sound theoretical understanding of these instruments is required. This understanding is important to discern the future of stable financial markets and to gain insight into some of the potential risks faced by financial markets. The South African perspective regarding securitisation, CDSs and the global financial crisis is an important field of study. The impact of the crisis on South Africa will be explored in this dissertation, as well as, the effect of the crisis on South Africa's securitisation market (which has proved healthy and robust over the first part of the new millennium despite the global slowdown of these instruments) and the CDS market. A key goal of this work is to establish whether or not CDSs have been used in South Africa to hedge the credit risk component of bonds linked to asset–backed securities (ABSs). This will provide an indication of the maturity of the South African credit risk transfer (CRT) market and how South Africa compares to more developed financial markets regarding complexity, regulation, sophistication and market sentiment. Through the exploration and understanding of these concepts, the efficacy of emerging economies to adapt to globalisation, and how welcome financial innovation has proved to be in emerging markets will be addressed. / Thesis (M.Com. (Risk management))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2012.

This study follows a three–pronged approach to investigate the effects of the global financial crisis on the South African retail credit market (using Woolworths as subject). These three prongs, or areas, include a literature study, step–by–step credit scoring guide and an application of this guide in an empirical study. To achieve this goal, credit scoring was selected as the quantitative tool to illustrate these effects. Two different periods were chosen to supply a snapshot of the retail credit industry, namely the retail credit situation before and during the global financial crisis. To correctly define and understand the mechanics affecting South Africa's retail credit industry, a literature review was conducted to investigate the global financial crisis, the South African retail credit market and credit scoring itself. The literature investigation explains the global financial crisis and identifies some of the primary drivers behind it. These drivers included the US housing bubble, the introduction of subprime loans and the securitisation of these loans (mortgage backed securities). The study found that these drivers, especially the securitisation of subprime loans, were the vehicle used to enable the crisis to spread globally. The ultimate goal of the study was to provide the individual, and companies, with an understanding of the global financial crisis' effects on the consumer specifically through their credit worthiness and retail credit behaviour. Through the use of credit scoring, the study found that at least one retailer (Woolworths) in the retail industry was affected. Woolworths placed a stronger emphasis on reducing their credit exposure whilst consumers were steadily increasing their facility utilisation. / Thesis (M.Com. (Risk management))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2012.

The financial crisis that struck financial markets in 2008 was devastating for the global economy. The impact continues to be felt in the market - most recently in sovereign defaults. 1 There are many questions as to the origin of the crisis and how the same events may be prevented in the future. This dissertation explores two financial instruments: securitisation and credit default swaps (CDSs) and attempts to establish the role they played in the financial crisis. To fully understand the events that unfolded before and during the crisis, a sound theoretical understanding of these instruments is required. This understanding is important to discern the future of stable financial markets and to gain insight into some of the potential risks faced by financial markets. The South African perspective regarding securitisation, CDSs and the global financial crisis is an important field of study. The impact of the crisis on South Africa will be explored in this dissertation, as well as, the effect of the crisis on South Africa's securitisation market (which has proved healthy and robust over the first part of the new millennium despite the global slowdown of these instruments) and the CDS market. A key goal of this work is to establish whether or not CDSs have been used in South Africa to hedge the credit risk component of bonds linked to asset–backed securities (ABSs). This will provide an indication of the maturity of the South African credit risk transfer (CRT) market and how South Africa compares to more developed financial markets regarding complexity, regulation, sophistication and market sentiment. Through the exploration and understanding of these concepts, the efficacy of emerging economies to adapt to globalisation, and how welcome financial innovation has proved to be in emerging markets will be addressed. / Thesis (M.Com. (Risk management))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2012.

This study follows a three–pronged approach to investigate the effects of the global financial crisis on the South African retail credit market (using Woolworths as subject). These three prongs, or areas, include a literature study, step–by–step credit scoring guide and an application of this guide in an empirical study. To achieve this goal, credit scoring was selected as the quantitative tool to illustrate these effects. Two different periods were chosen to supply a snapshot of the retail credit industry, namely the retail credit situation before and during the global financial crisis. To correctly define and understand the mechanics affecting South Africa's retail credit industry, a literature review was conducted to investigate the global financial crisis, the South African retail credit market and credit scoring itself. The literature investigation explains the global financial crisis and identifies some of the primary drivers behind it. These drivers included the US housing bubble, the introduction of subprime loans and the securitisation of these loans (mortgage backed securities). The study found that these drivers, especially the securitisation of subprime loans, were the vehicle used to enable the crisis to spread globally. The ultimate goal of the study was to provide the individual, and companies, with an understanding of the global financial crisis' effects on the consumer specifically through their credit worthiness and retail credit behaviour. Through the use of credit scoring, the study found that at least one retailer (Woolworths) in the retail industry was affected. Woolworths placed a stronger emphasis on reducing their credit exposure whilst consumers were steadily increasing their facility utilisation. / Thesis (M.Com. (Risk management))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2012.

The global financial crisis has been catalogued as one of the worst economical recessions since the Great Depression in 1930’s. The history in Latin America has shown that the region has been turbulent in respect of economic crisis. They were three main channels, which are divided in contagion and/or interdepended to Latin America; first the remittances saw a drop, the smallest countries like the Central Americans countries were the most affected by this channel. The second channel was in the export with the freeze in the international trade market. And the third channel was the financial shock with global finances and credit constraint. For the seven biggest economies; Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela; the second and third channel were the ones that most affected them. There is not proof that within the region toxic assets were acquired; this is the main raison that we have take macroeconomics variables to measure the impact of the crisis. Thanks to the propitious economic circumstances in the past years made Latin American countries had a great economic growth, this helped them to grow their international reserves and have a healthier fiscal system. Those two tools were fundamental to fight against the crisis with counter cyclical policies. Also most of the countries have started to diversify they exports to other regions, focusing more in Asia especially the gigantic Republic Peoples of China. Some countries apply this strategy more aggressively than others, and as a result they bounced back quicker than other countries. It has been said, that this kind of economic depressions only happens once every one hundred years. Latin America suffered as the entire world did, but they were better prepare and their strategies worked to reactivate their local economies. Some countries have been economically performing better and have kept their inflation and unemployment rates at the same level as before the crisis started.

The determinants of audit fees and report lag: A comparative study of Egypt and the UK Despite the occurrence of recent economic and political events such as the global financial crisis and Arab spring in the Middle East, researchers have not addressed the effects of such events on the auditing profession. That is has given a motive to this study to explore this point of research. This study has three main objectives. The first objective is to investigate the determinants of audit fees and audit report timeliness in the Egyptian and UK contexts. The second objective is to point out how the economic and political events could affect these determinants. The third objective is to make a comparison between the response of auditors towards economic and political instability in both countries. These objectives are set to solve the research problem of this study which is to investigate how the price behaviour of audit fees and report timeliness can vary in two different contexts: Egypt and the UK, and to highlight how auditors respond to such economic (Global Financial Crisis) and political events (Egyptian Revolution). A special attention has been addressed to tourism industry while investigating audit pricing and timeliness decisions throughout this study for two reasons. First, tourism industry play a critical role for the economy of many developing and developed countries. Second, tourism industry is highly affected by any economic and political events. For these reasons, tourism industry is surrounded by high risk during the economic or political instability, and thus this might result in special procedures and decisions taken by the auditors regarding tourism industry clients during instable periods. To take into account the most recent economic and political events, the study sample covers the period of six financial years from 2008 to 2013. This sample period has been chosen to capture the global financial crisis that has taken place during 2008-2009 and also to investigate the effects of the Egyptian revolution that has taken place on January 25, 2011, and subsequent political events. The study sample includes 212 Egyptian companies listed in the Egyptian stock market and the top 350 companies (FTSE 350) listed in the London Stock Exchange. For guaranteeing the preciseness of the findings, advanced panel data Prais-Winsten statistical analysis technique has been used throughout this study. Results of this study reveal consistency between Egypt and UK in most signs of coefficients of audit fees determinants. However, a lot of differences exist between the audit report lag determinants in the Egyptian and UK context that suggest that a one-size-fits-all approach cannot be generalized in audit report lag determinants for various countries. Despite that tourism is a very risky industry that is easily affected by economic and political instability, results reported in Egypt and UK reveal that audit fees charged and audit delay reported for tourism did not differ from other industries in both contexts. Results also reveal that Big N auditing firms in the UK have competitive advantages of not charging an audit fee premium and offering a more timely audit report than non-big N. These advantages increase the demand of Big N in the UK and increase their dominance. On the other side, in Egypt, Big N auditing firms do not offer such advantage of timely audit reports than non-big N, besides, they charge their clients with audit fee premium. That enabled medium sized and small auditing firms to penetrate the Egyptian auditing market and increase their market share, and thus, Big N dominance is not high in the Egyptian audit market as that in the UK. Different auditor responses to global financial crisis (GFC) have been documented in both countries. As auditors in Egypt decreased their audit fees and offered more timely audit report to face the economic recession and the anxiety of investors accompanied with the GFC. However, neither the pricing of auditing services nor the audit report lag have been affected during the GFC in the UK audit market. According to the results of this study, during the Egyptian Revolution, auditors tended to charge audit fees premium without increasing/decreasing audit delay. This implies that the increase in audit fees during revolution was a risk premium due to the instability in economic and political conditions and was not accompanied by any increase in audit effort and delay.

The international financial environment has become riskier due to the recent developments in product offerings and failure of regulation to keep abreast with these changes. The Global Financial Crisis exposed inadequacies of regulation, thus consensus on the need for comprehensive and uniform regulation was made by G-20 member states. Imposing exchange trading, clearing, reporting and capital requirements on the derivatives market are some of the ways of dealing with the problems caused by lax regulatory oversight. In this study, through the comparative analysis of derivatives regulation in South Africa, Brazil, India and Turkey, it was established that emerging countries are taking active steps to implement the G-20 agreement. Uniformity in the core rules was noted, with differences in the supportive legislation. Country specific rules which support the macroeconomic factors that are faced by these countries and the infrastructure available for regulatory execution are used amongst countries. The study concluded that current regulation in emerging countries is accommodative and regulatory differences are in line with economic factors in each country.

This thesis used the events of the 2007 financial crisis as a means of being able to add to the research already done on South African unit trusts. The objective was to study the risk-adjusted performance of South African general equity unit trusts against the market during the period between 2005 and 2014. This period took into account the bull market preceding the financial crisis, the market crash of 2007 and the subsequent market recovery that followed. Data was obtained online through the I-Net BFA data base and included 161 general equity unit trusts that contained a full data set. In addition to the general equity unit trusts, the Satrix40 was studied to compare a passive unit trust against those that are actively managed. The 10 year Government bond was also used as a risk-free rate to add to the comparisons of performance results. The Sharpe, Treynor and Jensen measures were applied to the data with the results adding more support to the opinions that markets are fairly efficient and active investment strategies are being challenged by consistently well performing passive investments. Throughout the duration of the study, taking into account the varying economic cycles, the Satrix40 passive investment showed the best average overall return on simple return calculations as well as during the risk-adjusted measurements. In support of active investment management, unit trusts showed their best relative performance figures during the period of the financial crisis. This suggested that active financial managers were able to make the active calls necessary to weather the storm of the financial crisis. While the study did have its limitations, the results it produced are intended to offer investors further knowledge in enabling them to make more educated investment decisions in the future.

The explosion of the global financial crisis in 2007-08 reignited the urgency to reflect on the origins and causes of financial collapses. As the above events kick-started an economic meltdown that is still ongoing, comparisons with the Great Crash of 1929 started to abound. In particular, the externalities that a broad spectrum of societal groups had to bear as a consequence of various banking failures highlighted the necessity of a more inclusive and balanced regulation of firms whose activities impact on a wide range of stakeholders.The thesis is centred on the proposal of a paradigm, the “enlightened sovereign control”, that provides a theoretical, institutional and substantive framework as a response to the legal issues analysed in the thesis. These stem primarily from the analysis of two sequences of events (the 2001-03 wave of “accounting frauds” and the 2007-08 global crisis) which represent the background upon which modern financial scandals are explained. This is done by highlighting a number of common denominators emerging from the case studies (Enron and Parmalat, Northern Rock and Lehman Brothers) which caused financial instability and scandals. The research is grounded on the initial recognition of theoretical themes in the field of corporate and financial law, which eventually link with the more practical events examined. This parallel enquiry leads to the investigation of two heavily interrelated spheres of law and finally highlights more practical legal issues that emerge from the analysis.Through this multifaceted approach, the thesis contends that the occurrence of financial crises during the last decade is essentially rooted in two main problems: a corporate governance one, represented by the lack of effective control systems within large public firms; and a corporate finance one identified with the excesses of financial innovation and related abuses of capital market finance. Research conducted in this thesis ultimately seeks to contribute to current debates in the areas of corporate and financial law, through the proposals of the “enlightened sovereign control” paradigm.