Thesis (M.S.)--University of Delaware, 2009. / Principal faculty advisor: Michael A. O'Neal, Dept. of Geography. Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis (M.S.)--Mississippi State University. Department of Geosciences. / Title from title screen. Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis (M.S.)--University of Toledo, 2008. / Typescript. "Submitted as partial fulfillments of the requirements for The Master of Science in Biology." "A thesis entitled"--at head of title. Bibliography: leaves 35-40.

Climate change has already increased the frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves around the world. In the coming decades, this trend will continue and likely accelerate, exposing much of the world’s population to historically unprecedented conditions. In some regions, extreme temperatures (as indexed by the annual maximum temperature) are projected to increase at a faster rate than mean daily maximum temperatures. This dissertation shows that under a high emissions scenario, by 2060 – 2080 models project that the most extreme temperatures could warm by 1 – 2°C more than the warm season average in some regions. This amplified warming of the most extreme temperatures is most pronounced in the eastern U.S., Europe, eastern China, and parts of the Amazon rainforest, and may have substantial implications for heat risk in these regions. This dissertation explores the physical mechanisms driving the projected amplified warming of extremes in climate models and assesses the associated uncertainty. It shows that the amplification is linked to reductions in cloud cover, increased net surface shortwave radiation, and general surface drying as represented by declines in the evaporative fraction. In addition to rising temperatures, atmospheric humidity has been observed to increase in recent decades and models project this trend to continue. As a result, joint heat-humidity metrics indicating heat stress are likely to rapidly increase in the future. This dissertation explores how extreme wet bulb temperatures may change throughout the century and assesses the risk of exceeding a fundamental human heat tolerance limit that has been proposed in prior research. It then combines climate data with spatially explicit population projections to estimate the future population exposure to unprecedented wet bulb temperatures. Several regions stand out as being at particular risk: India, the coastal Middle East, and parts of West Africa are likely to experience extremely high wet bulb temperatures in the future, and rapidly growing populations in these regions will result in large increases in exposure to dangerous heat stress. In some areas, it is possible that wet bulb temperatures could occasionally exceed the proposed human tolerance limit by 2080 under a high emissions scenario, but limiting emissions to a moderate trajectory eliminates this risk. Nevertheless, even with emissions reductions, large portions of the world’s population are projected to experience unprecedented heat and humidity in the future. The projected changes in extreme temperatures will have a variety of impacts on infrastructure and other human systems. This dissertation explores how more frequent and severe hot conditions will impact aircraft takeoff performance by reducing air density and limiting the payload capacity of commercial aircraft. It uses performance models constructed for a variety of aircraft types and projected temperatures to assess the payload reductions that may be required in the future. These payload limits, along with sea level rise, changes in storm patterns, increased atmospheric turbulence, and other effects of climate change, stand to have significant economic and operational impacts on the aviation industry. Finally, this dissertation discusses evidence-based adaptation strategies to reduce the impacts of extreme heat in urban areas. It reviews a body of literature showing that effective strategies exist to both lower urban temperatures on a large scale and drastically reduce heat-related mortality during heat waves. Many adaptation techniques are not costly, but have yet to be widely implemented. Given the rapid increases in climate impacts that are projected in the coming decades, it will be essential to rigorously assess the cost-effectiveness of adaptation techniques and implement the most efficient strategies in both high- and low-income areas.

This dissertation is about the factors that influence heat wave preparedness of Midwestern health departments, and the climate change perceptions of public health officials. Heat waves have historically impacted the Midwest and, due to the variable pattern of these events, are full of uncertainties. Climate change intensifies the threat of heat waves; therefore, it is important for public health officials to incorporate methods for addressing climate change into their short and long term plans and preparedness models. This study is unique, because it goes beyond previous work that has been done with heat wave preparedness by speaking with public health officials to understand the complexities of heat wave planning. Applying a comparative case study methodology to this study was important to see how three states, in varying stages of climate change preparedness, function regarding emergency planning, decision making, and collaboration. Further, interview discussions regarding climate change demonstrate the need to further assist public health with their mitigation and adaptation efforts. Topics within Chapter One describe the study framework, study significance, discuss the incorporated methodology, and the dissemination of results. In Chapter Two, I construct the scholarly framework for this study by examining climate change and public health impacts, how policy shapes program planning with regard to heat waves, the sociological implications of heat waves including communicative properties and community organizing, and heat wave preparedness plan evaluation. Chapter Three focuses on the methodology guiding this project as well as the research questions. Research questions focused on preparation for heat waves, communication among state and local health departments, climate change perceptions of health officials, and finally, the influence of grant funding on preparedness efforts. This study was constructed using an interpretive paradigm to guide a comparative case study framework for comparing heat wave preparedness of three Midwestern States. Using document analysis and semi-structured interviews, I was able to discuss the concept of preparedness with public health officials including emergency preparedness coordinators, environmental health directors, and emergency managers. In Chapters Four and Five, I developed the uniqueness of each case, and then built a broader story by examining findings across the cases. I met with 22 individuals representing fourteen local health departments, two state health departments, one city health department, two emergency management agencies, and one state climatologist office. Analysis was threaded into both Chapters Four and Five by exploring within (locality, misconception, and camaraderie) and cross (passive leadership, transitions, expectations, reputation, and strategies) case themes. In Chapter Six, I discuss the study findings by incorporating the social ecological model as well as cited literature. Finally, Chapter Seven revisits the study significance and implications for best possible practices in health and public health education. Climate change is one of the greatest threats to public health, and heat waves are only one anticipated threat from enhanced warming. This study sheds light on the importance of climate literacy and preparedness for all-hazards approaches in public health planning.

Equivalent temperature is an atmospheric variable that combines both dry static energy (associated with temperature) and moist static energy (associated with moisture). Changes in equivalent temperature therefore reflect changes in total surface energy content. This research is concerned with quantifying trends in equivalent temperature and its subcomponents at 8 National Weather Service (NWS) 1st Order stations in the central USA. Data quality control was conducted and time series and time-varying percentile trends of maximum and minimum equivalent temperature and its subcomponents were developed for each of the stations on the daily scale; along with a heat wave trend analysis. It was found that there is an overall positive trend in lower tropospheric heat content over the last 60 years--driven primarily by increases in low-level moisture. The largest changes in equivalent temperature occurred during spring and fall, with some of these trends as large as 5 deg. Celsius/50 years. Furthermore, it was found that there is an increase in the number of high humidity heat wave events and that these types of events are more frequent than low humidity events; which saw a slight decrease in frequency. Interestingly, one station (Nashville, TN) exhibited a slight negative trend in equivalent temperature maxima, which may be due to synoptic-scale influence such as the Great Plains low-level jet. The results demonstrate that equivalent temperature provides a different perspective than temperature for assessing regional climate change.

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Geography / John A. Harrington Jr / Extreme heat is a hazard that is capable of causing economic problems and potentially high mortality rates across several regions simultaneously. This dissertation was designed to provide a better understanding of how often and where heat waves occur within the United States. The research design assessed all places equally in order to evaluate geographic variations in the character of heat waves. In order to simplify the variety of extreme heat events that occur, this research developed two classifications; one for accumulated daily heat stress and a second for extended periods of extreme conditions (heat waves). Both new classification systems were designed to objectively categorize individual events using a scale from 1 (minor) to 5 (extreme). The heat wave classification system was applied to 70 locations for years 1980-2001 to determine the frequency, magnitude, and duration of daily heat stress events and heat waves. Hourly temperature and humidity data were used to determine heat index values, which were accumulated to provide the daily heat intensity measurement. Major findings from this research include: how heat stress distribution is influenced by topographical relief variations as well as latitude; daily heat stress classifications during an event were typically not in an intensify-then-weaken progression; Category 1 heat waves were the most frequent overall followed by Category 2 and Category 3 heat waves, however Category 5 events outnumbered Category 4 events over the temporal period of this study; and heat stress days/heat waves occurred most frequently in the Southeast, with the fewest occurring in the Northwest. The classification was also used to illustrate the extent and magnitude of the 1995 heat wave that caused high human mortality in the Midwest. Results from this research are presented in maps and tables to provide a detailed insight on the characteristics of heat stress throughout the United States as a function of the exposure component of hazard vulnerability.

Health at birth is considered an important indicator of health outcomes in adulthood. It is also shown to have a strong association with future educational attainment and labor market outcomes. I examine the effects of behavioral and environmental factors on infant health. The factors I focus on include alcohol consumption during pregnancy, extreme weather events associated with climate change, and pollution that may result from unconventional oil and natural gas development. In Chapter II, I examine the effects of point-of-sale alcohol warning signage that alcohol retailers are required to post in some states on alcohol use during pregnancy and on birth outcomes. I find that point-of-sale warning signs discourage alcohol consumption among pregnant women and are associated with a decrease in the odds of newborns having very low birth weight or being very pre-term. The findings of this research inform decision makers about a potentially effective mechanism through which alcohol consumption among pregnant women can be reduced. They also suggest causal evidence for the link between prenatal alcohol exposure and inferior health at birth. Chapter III documents that exposure to heat waves during pregnancy is associated with increased likelihood of the mother experiencing an adverse health condition during pregnancy and the newborn having an abnormal condition at birth. The results provide an assessment of the magnitude and timing of the effects of extreme heat events associated with climate change on infant health which is potentially helpful in enhancing the effectiveness of adaptation efforts. Finally, Chapter IV provides an empirical investigation of the link between unconventional oil and natural gas development and infant health. The results indicate that unconventional drilling activity is associated with a small, but statistically significant, decline in birth outcomes, especially for those living in rural areas. Given that it is estimated that the rapid expansion in unconventional oil and gas extraction will continue for at least a few more decades, the results of this study may contribute to the discussions related to initiation or tightening of regulations and monitoring efforts to control pollution. This dissertation includes previously unpublished co-authored material.

Summer (JJA) temperature (T) and equivalent temperature (TE) for 18 of the largest cities in the eastern United States are investigated for two time periods: 1948-2014 and 1973-2014. Because temperature provides an incomplete description of lower tropospheric heat content, we supplement with TE, which also accounts for the energy associated with moisture. An auxiliary investigation using air mass data from the Spatial Synoptic Classification (SSC) augments the investigation of T and TE trends. The trend analysis revealed significant trends in Tmin at all stations over the 67-year time period and over most stations for the shorter (41-year) period. Minimum TE likewise increases nearly everywhere in the longer series, but at only around half of the stations in the shorter series. Stations with increasing TE in the shorter period are primarily coastal or located in the southern and upper Midwest, where there has also been a noticeable lack of warming. Our results also exhibit a decrease in the diurnal TE range that accompanies the documented decrease in diurnal temperature range over the same period. Trends in T and TE are evaluated in the context of changes in air mass frequency. A heat wave analysis was also conducted to identify changes in intensity and frequency using T and TE Overall, our findings suggest that TE provides a more comprehensive perspective on recent climate change than T alone. With heat wave frequency and intensity projected to increase, we recommend adoption of TE to account for changes in total surface heat content.

The Limpopo Province is a major tomato growing region in South Africa, producing 66% of the total annual tonnage of tomatoes. The Limpopo Province is particularly vulnerable to the impact of climate change, partly because it is exposed to extreme weather events. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Africa will be hit hardest by climate change as larger areas could be stricken by yield decreases of over 50% by the year 2020 because of an increasingly hotter and drier climate. This will threaten food security and the livelihoods of people in most parts of Africa. First and foremost in this research study, a detailed analysis of annual seasonal trends in minimum and maximum temperatures was investigated, as well as the diurnal temperature range over the Limpopo Province for the period 1950-1999. In particular, using daily data from 30 catchment areas, three temperature variables were calculated: the average, maximum and minimum temperature. The analysis demonstrated that there was an increase of 0.12°C every decade in the mean annual temperature for the 30 catchments over the 50-year period. Furthermore, the present study analysed the correlation of tomato records for the Limpopo Province with climatic variables in order to assess the climate change effects on tomato production and food security in South Africa. The trend analysis of tomato production in the Limpopo, tomato yield showed increased by a factor of 2 from 1971-2006. Thus the response of tomato production during that period of 35 years was more favourable. This shows that the largest values in tomato yield were in the last decades when temperatures were high. From our analysis, the trend of tomato production in the Limpopo, tomato yield increased by a factor of 2 during the period of 1971-2006 was not significant. In particular, during the spring, summer, autumn and winter seasons, tomato yield increased by a factor of 2 respectively. With the exception of February and June, most months registered positive trends in tomato production. The study reported in this thesis investigated the frequency of occurrence of heat waves (HWs) over Limpopo. The analysis of the occurrences of HWs over this region is important due to their impact on agricultural production as well as human health. Overall, our results indicate that during the period 1950-1999, the Limpopo Province experienced HW events. The results from the present study demonstrated that during the four seasons (spring, summer, autumn and winter) the HW trends were not monotonic over the five decades (1950-1999). Furthermore, the research reported in this thesis analysed the distribution of leafminer agromyzid pest over the Limpopo Province in a changing climate. The analysis of tomato pest distribution is vital because the leafminer agromyzid pest has a major impact on tomato production. In general, the aim of analysing the leafminer agromyzid pest was to determine how climate change influences the distribution of the leafminer agromyzid pest and hence impacts on tomato production in the Limpopo Province, South Africa. The present analysis illustrates that the leafminer agromyzid pest and climatic factors exhibit a non-linear relationship, which could be best described by a polynomial function of order two while in general, the influence of climate change on the spatial distribution of the leafminer agromyzid pest over the Limpopo Province is apparent. / Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2014. / lk2014 / Zoology and Entomology / PhD / Unrestricted