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Daniel Conk 5 January 2012 Thesis Abstract This thesis is an empirical research on the impact that preferential trade agreements have on the welfare of individuals and nation-states. As the number of preferential trade agreements has been growing steadily, the on-going clash between regionalism and multilateralism will be a key topic throughout the research. Fair trade movements have been becoming more popular over the fast few years as some organizations have strived to raise consumers awareness regarding the great disparities among the profit margins of the producers or farmers in developing countries in comparison to those of the merchants and distributors in developed countries. Even though quantitative data will be used in order to portray the growing economic inequalities present in today s world, arguments will also be supported on grounds of ethics and morals relating to social justice.

Submitted by JOSIANE SANTOS DE OLIVEIRA (josianeso) on 2019-03-11T14:13:51Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Monique Fernandes Pereira Carvalho_.pdf: 595782 bytes, checksum: b758439f588c08ec068e1341b6dedbf3 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2019-03-11T14:13:51Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Monique Fernandes Pereira Carvalho_.pdf: 595782 bytes, checksum: b758439f588c08ec068e1341b6dedbf3 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2019-01-18 / CNPQ – Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico / O objetivo da dissertação é examinar os efeitos da guerra comercial entre EUA e China sobre a economia brasileira, com ênfase nos produtos primários. A metodologia empregada foi o modelo de Equilíbrio Geral Computável GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project). Os resultados revelaram que haveria aumento na produção de soja e aço no Brasil e redução nos demais setores. Também haveria déficit na balança comercial em todos os setores, exceto de soja e de aço, e o Brasil seria beneficiado em termos de ganhos de bem-estar, principalmente, em função dos ganhos dos termos de troca. Em nível global, a guerra comercial entre EUA e China resultaria em perda de bem-estar para os países envolvidos diretamente, mas o objetivo principal do governo Trump seria alcançado, aumentando a produção de aço e alumínio, e com a redução, embora pequena, do déficit comercial dos EUA, estimulando a especialização em produtos de alta tecnologia, enquanto estimularia a China a se especializar em produtos de baixa tecnologia. / The objective of the dissertation is to examine the effects of the US-China trade war on the Brazilian economy, with an emphasis on primary products. The methodology used was the GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) Computable General Equilibrium model. The results showed that there would be an increase in soybean and steel production in Brazil and a reduction in other sectors. There would also be a trade deficit in all sectors, except for soy and steel, and Brazil would benefit in terms of welfare gains, mainly due to terms of trade gains. At the global level, the trade war between the US and China would result in loss of welfare for the countries directly involved, but the main objective of the Trump government would be achieved by increasing steel and aluminum production and reducing, albeit small, of the US trade deficit by stimulating specialization in high-tech products, while encouraging China to specialize in low-tech products.