Fung Wing Tsan. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1993. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 130-133). / Abstract --- p.i / Acknowledgment --- p.iii / Chapter Chapter 1 --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Chapter Chapter 2 --- THE PRICING OF STOCK INDEX FUTURES --- p.9 / Chapter I. --- The Theoretical Framework --- p.9 / Chapter II. --- Evidence from the US Markets --- p.17 / Chapter III. --- Evidence from Other Markets --- p.21 / Chapter Chapter 3 --- THE PRICE DISCOVERY ROLE OF FUTURES MARKET --- p.24 / Chapter I. --- The Potential of Lead/Lag Relationship between the Stock Index Futures Price and the Stock Index --- p.24 / Chapter II. --- Empirical Evidence for the Lead/Lag Relationship --- p.27 / Chapter Chapter 4 --- THE HEDGING FUNCTION OF STOCK INDEX FUTURES MARKET --- p.30 / Chapter I. --- The Traditional Approach --- p.31 / Chapter II. --- Working's Speculative Hedge Approach --- p.32 / Chapter III. --- The Risk-Minimizing Approach --- p.33 / Chapter IV. --- The Portfolio Allocation Approach --- p.40 / Chapter Chapter 5 --- AN INTRODUCTION TO THE HANG SENG INDEX FUTURES MARKET --- p.44 / Chapter Chapter 6 --- PRICING EFFICIENCY OF THE HANG SENG INDEX FUTURES MARKET --- p.51 / Chapter I. --- Pricing Efficiency of the Hang Seng Index Futures Market with no Transaction Costs --- p.51 / Chapter II. --- Pricing Efficiency of the Hang Seng Index Futures Market with Transaction Costs --- p.59 / Chapter III. --- The Pattern of the Mispricing Series --- p.66 / Chapter IV. --- Test of Pricing Efficiency using Intraday Prices --- p.70 / Chapter Chapter 7 --- PRICE DISCOVERY ROLE OF THE HANG SENG INDEX FUTURES MARKET --- p.85 / Chapter I. --- The Granger-Causality Test --- p.86 / Chapter II. --- Error-Correction Model and Long-Run Relationship between the Stock Price and the Hang Seng Index Futures Price --- p.93 / Chapter III. --- The Simultaneous-Equation Error-Correction Model --- p.96 / Chapter Chapter 8 --- HEDGING EFFECTIVENESS OF THE HANG SENG INDEX FUTURES MARKET --- p.104 / Chapter I. --- The Effectiveness of Hang Seng Index Futures in Reducing Risks Of Stock Portfolios --- p.104 / Chapter II. --- The Hedged Portfolio as an Alternative to Fixed-Income Asset --- p.115 / Chapter III. --- The Effectiveness of Hang Seng Index Futures in Improving Risk´ؤReturn 'Trade-Off --- p.119 / Chapter Chapter 9 --- conclusion --- p.126 / References --- p.130

Thesis (M.B.A.)--University of Hong Kong, 1994. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 107-109).

published_or_final_version / Business Administration / Master / Master of Business Administration

Three empirical studies are conducted examining the efficiency of S&P 500 futures prices and the pricing of these futures contracts. In the first study, the ability of futures prices to predict the realized spot S&P 500 index prices on the expiration date is examined for near term contracts. The futures prices are found to be unbiased predictors of the realized spot index prices for the nineteen quarterly contracts from 1982 to 1986. Previous studies report significant deviations in S&P SOO futures prices from theoretically determined Cost of Carry Model (CCM) prices. In the second study, it is found that the CCM using the federal funds rate, a proxy for the overnight repurchase rate, provides relatively better estimates of the S&P S(x) futures prices over the 1984-1986 period. The futures mispricing also reflects the weekend effect anomaly: futures prices are "over-priced" relative to CCM prices on Mondays, whereas the opposite occurs on Fridays. The futures over-pricing (under-pricing) is characterized by "bull" ("bear") financial markets and the extent of price changes are relatively greater in the futures market. The futures under-pricing is supported by strong future market volume and open-interest positions. The basis and changes in it over the futures contract period are measures of how well integrated the futures market and the underlying spot market are. In the third study, based on daily closing prices for the S&P 500 index and index futures for the 1984-1986 period, it is found that the basis decreases over the contract period but the rate of decrease is independent of the time to expiration. The change in basis on Mondays is generally positive which also reflects the weekend effect anomaly. The daily basis is negative on 107 days, which generally occurs during strong futures market trading volume and open interest positions. It is doubtful whether the negative basis can be attributed to a negative net financing cost, where the dividend yield 0.1 the spot index exceeds the cost of financing the spot index forward.

<p>The main purpose of this thesis is to investigate what is the optimal futures-spot arbitrage strategy for China‘s stock index futures investment. Specifically, Index replication method and no-arbitrage pricing model are examined. We compare the different combinations of ETFs portfolio in mainland China with W.I.S.E-CSI 300 ETF in Hong Kong in three aspects including liquidity level, correlation of ETFs with underlying index, and tracking error of the replication methods. Then, we add several new parameters into interval pricing model to obtain a more accurate no-arbitrage band. As a result, we found that the portfolio of SSE 50 ETF, SZSE 100 ETF, and SSE Bonus ETF could provide the best tracking effect of CSI 300 Index, with different weight as 0.369, 0.403, and 0.19 in turn separately. Furthermore, the new modified pricing model could find out more arbitrage opportunities than interval pricing model especially for reverse cash-and-carry arbitrage. On the whole, the optimal arbitrage strategy for investment on CSI 300 Index futures consist of two steps, implement ETFs portfolio replicate CSI 300 Index and using new modified pricing model to discover and define arbitrage opportunities then to apply futures-spot arbitrage. At the end of thesis, we also give a small case study to illustrate how to exercise the arbitrage strategy in realistic situation.</p>

The main purpose of this thesis is to investigate what is the optimal futures-spot arbitrage strategy for China‘s stock index futures investment. Specifically, Index replication method and no-arbitrage pricing model are examined. We compare the different combinations of ETFs portfolio in mainland China with W.I.S.E-CSI 300 ETF in Hong Kong in three aspects including liquidity level, correlation of ETFs with underlying index, and tracking error of the replication methods. Then, we add several new parameters into interval pricing model to obtain a more accurate no-arbitrage band. As a result, we found that the portfolio of SSE 50 ETF, SZSE 100 ETF, and SSE Bonus ETF could provide the best tracking effect of CSI 300 Index, with different weight as 0.369, 0.403, and 0.19 in turn separately. Furthermore, the new modified pricing model could find out more arbitrage opportunities than interval pricing model especially for reverse cash-and-carry arbitrage. On the whole, the optimal arbitrage strategy for investment on CSI 300 Index futures consist of two steps, implement ETFs portfolio replicate CSI 300 Index and using new modified pricing model to discover and define arbitrage opportunities then to apply futures-spot arbitrage. At the end of thesis, we also give a small case study to illustrate how to exercise the arbitrage strategy in realistic situation.

Thesis (M. Phil.)--University of Hong Kong, 2005. / Title proper from title frame. Also available in printed format.

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