Student Number : 9005994G - MSc research report - School of Construction Economics and Management - Faculty of Engineering and the Built Environment / The objectives of this research are to assess the returns, risks and correlation of a mixed-asset portfolio, establish the role of real estate in a mixed-asset portfolio and suggest an appropriate real estate allocation in the South African pension fund industry. The issue of low real estate allocation has been a subject of interest to practitioners and academics, both locally and internationally, despite the diversification benefit that real estate provides in a mixed-asset portfolio. A statistical approach was considered most the appropriate tool for analyzing returns. Solver optimizer in the excel spreadsheet package was used to generate efficient frontiers and the associated values of portfolios. Real estate provided a lower return of 1.25% and a lower standard deviation of 4.90% compared to equities with a return of 1.39% and the highest standard deviation of 6.23%, whilst bonds provided the best risk-return trade off, with a return of 1.42% and the lowest standard deviation of 2.64%. An equally -weighted portfolio consisting of bonds and stocks and a portfolio consisting bonds, stocks and real estate was simulated. The equally -weighted portfolio of bonds and stocks provides a return of 1.41% and a standard deviation of 3.76%. The minimum variance with bias to bonds provides a higher return of 1.42% at a lower level of risk of 2.62%. The equally -weighted portfolio consisting of bonds, stocks and real estate provides a return of 1.35%, with a lower risk of 3.49%. The minimum variance with bias to bonds provides almost the same return of 1.40% at a lower level of risk of 2.54% compared to the bond and share portfolio. The Chi-Square statistical tool was used to test the diversification benefit of real estate. It can be concluded that the standard deviation of the portfolio with property is close enough to the standard deviation without property of 3.76% and cannot statistically say that it is different given the 5% level of significance. The Sharpe ratio was used to test the favourable risk adjusted returns offered by real estate. It concluded that property provides favourable risk adjusted returns and diversification benefits, as illustrated with the increasing portfolio return from 7.44% to 8.66% on Sharpe ratio basis and standard deviation of the portfolio decreasing from 3.76% to 2.54%. The literature review generally supported the view that real estate has a role in a mixed-asset portfolio. Research topics such as securitized versus unsecuritized real estate, real estate allocation and diversification, returns and risk, inflation hedging, modern portfolio theory and the efficient -frontier were analysed and related to the research report. The empirical analysis supports the hypothesis that real estate provides diversification benefits. The property cycle is positive and it is supported by positive property fundamentals like (vacancies are at lowest levels, capitalisation rates are strengthening, the property cycle is turning positive and a stable interest rate environment). The positive property fundamentals will lead to earnings growth. An allocation of between 10% based on the lower end of the minimum variance and 15% based on the lower end of the risk/return ratio is recommended for a mixed-asset portfolio.

La disparitions graduelle des peurs liées à l’inflation pendant l’ère de la «Grande Modération» macroéconomique est aujourd’hui chose révolue : la crise financière américaine des «Subprimes», la «Grande Récession» ainsi que la crise des dettes souveraines qui s’en est suivie ont abouti à un nouvel ordre économique caractérisé par une volatilité accrue de l’inflation, un accroissement des chocs dans les prix des matières premières et une défiance envers la qualité de la signature de certains émetteurs souverains pour n’en mentionner que trois caractéristiques. De la réduction des émissions de titres souverains indexés sur l’inflation aux taux réels négatifs jusqu’à de très longues maturités, cette nouvelle donne tend à mettre en péril aussi bien les stratégies conventionnelles de couvertures inflation que les stratégies directionnelles purement nominales . Cette thèse a pour but d’investiguer les effets de ces évènements qui ont changé la donne macro-financière et d’évaluer leurs conséquences en terme de couverture inflation aussi bien dans la gestion actif-passif des investisseurs institutionnels que sur l’épargne des particuliers. Trois stratégies alternatives de couverture sont proposées pour y faire face. / Gone are the days when inflation fears had receded under years of “Great Moderation” in macroeconomics. The US subprime financial crisis, the ensuing “Great Recession” and the sovereign debt scares that spread throughout much of the industrialized world brought about a new order characterized by higher inflation volatility, severe commodity price shocks and uncertainty over sovereign bond creditworthiness to name just a few. All of which tend to put in jeopardy both conventional inflation protected strategies and nominal unhedged ones: from reduced issues of linkers to negative long-term real rates, they call into question the viability of current strategies. This paper investigates those game changing events and their asset liability management consequences for retail and institutional investors. Three alternative ways to achieve real value protection are proposed.