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An investigation of the pattern of structural change in a static input-output system is considered, when a series of operational optimizations are performed in one or more subsystems. Specifically, changes in the relative price of each commodity in an economy, along with their implications for the quantities associated, are analyzed. By operationally optimizing a sector, a production process is selected in such a way that the input requirements from other sectors in the economy do not exceed the current equilibrium level as specified by the input-output economy. When the new optimal process is substituted for the current equilibrium process, the input-output structure may be perturbed and a new equilibrium solution needs to be sought. For the multi-sectoral problems, the system would be considered stable if the necessity for the further perturbation ceases, while an equilibrium solution exists to the current input-output system. Three different price models are developed in trying to obtain a new stable system. Depending upon three distinct sets of economic reasons behind, these models are named as the acquisition, the consolidation, and the appreciation model. This study concludes that under all the normal circumstances, a static input-output system does reach a stable state, if the sectoral optimization is conducted through linear programming. This study also investigates the effects of operational optimization of sectors on the quantity side of the economy. / Master of Science

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Thesis (Ph.D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Urban Studies and Planning, 1980. / MICROFICHE COPY AVAILABLE IN ARCHIVES AND ROTCH. / Bibliography: leaves 389-415. / by Zmarak M. Shalizi. / Ph.D.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Urban Studies and Planning, 1982. / MICROFICHE COPY AVAILABLE IN ARCHIVES AND ROTCH. / Bibliography: leaves 174-180. / by William H. Crown. / Ph.D.

This study investigates the potential drivers of growth and employment in Mpumalanga’s economy using input-output (I-O) analysis as a contribution to industrial policy research and development for the province. Since 1995 to 2011, the Mpumalanga economy has been dominated by the tertiary sector (Quantec, 2011). Mohamed (2010) argues that in South Africa, while there had been growth in services, this growth has generally not been in productive services but instead has been driven by acceleration in debt-driven consumption, outsourcing and growth in private security services. The unemployment rate in the province was at 30.9 percent and labour absorption 52.0 percent in 2011, which made Mpumulanga the 6th largest contributor to the unemployment rate in the country that year (Quantec, 2011). The fifth iteration of the Industrial Policy Action Plan, 2013/14 – 2015/16 aims to promote a labour absorbing industrialisation path, with the emphasis on the systematic building of economic linkages that create employment. While being aware of potential weaknesses associated with this method, I-O analysis is one of the tools used frequently in the literature for identifying sectors to be supported in the industrial policy. The results of this study shows that the manufacturing sector in the province has a stronger stimulatory power to directly stimulate output in most sectors and drive industrial development, provided that local imports and available skills can be used appropriately to fill the existing gaps. This study forms the basis for the Mpumalanga Province’s policymakers to further conduct sector analysis through other refined supplementary methods such as value chain analysis with the purpose to confirm linkages of the sectors and determine key sectors that have the potential to drive industrialisation in the province.

This dissertation investigates the dynamic economic structure transformation and its corresponding environmental consequences at the Austin-San Marcos Metropolitan Statistical Area (Austin MSA) from 1990 to 2008. Input-output (IO) analysis is the major methodology and environmental problems are defined as emissions of industrial point air pollutants. Both three-and seven-segment IO models of Austin MSA for the years of 1990, 1994, and 1999 are constructed. Direct and total pollution coefficients of six major pollutants are calculated, hypothe tical extraction measurement and structural decomposition analysis are implemented, and the quantity and pattern of pollutant emissions are simulated based on four major assumed development scenarios from 2000 to 2008. This study finds: 1) the digital economy has emerged in the Austin MSA during the 1990s, 2) the manufacturing process of Austin MSA tended to be more environmentally friendly, which supports the hypothesis of dematerialization and decarbonization, 3) consumption-driven and non-production segments related environmental problems becomes more significant in the emerging digital economy. This study predicts that industrial point air pollutant emissions will grow moderately from 2000 to 2008, assuming that the direct pollutant coefficients will change at the average rates of the 1990s and the final demand will grow at the half rates of the 1990s?? average. Pollution contribution from production segment will generally decrease and contribution from other segments such as ICT and Information will increase, however, emission contributions of the segments will vary in terms of pollutants as well as development scenarios. This study argues that the shift of the source and nature of environmental threats of in the digital economy mandates parallel reform of the current environmental policy. A new generation of policy should be cooperative rather than confrontational, integrated rather than fragmented, flexible rather than rigid. It should also facilitate innovative management initiatives to achieve sustainability. More fundamentally, it is expected to deal with environmental impacts of intangible information flows (bits) which are possibly more essential than flows of tangible goods and services (atoms) in the context of the digital economy and the information age.

Graduation date: 1982

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