by Low Fung Seong Jenny, Yau Yin. / Thesis (M.B.A.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1999. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 53). / ABSTRACT --- p.ii / TABLE OF CONTENTS --- p.iv / ACKNOWLEDGMENTS --- p.v / Chapter / Chapter I. --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Chapter II. --- THE HONG KONG MONETARY SYSTEM --- p.3 / Linked Exchange Rate System --- p.3 / Monetary Base --- p.3 / Capital Inflow and Outflow --- p.4 / Interest Rate and the Link --- p.5 / The Interbank Market --- p.9 / Chapter III. --- INTRODUCTION TO HIBOR FUTURES --- p.11 / Background of the HIBOR Futures --- p.12 / Features of Three-Month HIBOR Futures Contract --- p.14 / Futures Quotations and Futures Prices --- p.16 / Delivery and Determination of Final Settlement Prices --- p.17 / Functions of HIBOR Futures Contract --- p.17 / Short Hedge --- p.18 / Long Hedge --- p.20 / Speculation --- p.22 / Chapter IV. --- TEST OF COST OF CARRY RELATIONSHIP FOR HIBOR FUTURES --- p.24 / Cost of carry Relationship --- p.24 / Forward and Futures Prices --- p.27 / Cash Prices versus Futures Prices --- p.27 / Testing the Cost of Carry on Three-month HIBOR Futures Contracts --- p.30 / Collection of Data --- p.30 / Methodology --- p.30 / Findings --- p.31 / Analysis of Findings --- p.35 / Chapter V. --- CONCLUSION --- p.37 / ENDNOTES --- p.38 / APPENDICES --- p.40 / BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.53

本研究中，考慮連續時間下，附最低保證之長期最適投資策略；在利率模型中，為較能符合現實狀況，我們採用CIR模型；另外，在此策略中，我們將投資人之風險偏好加入模型中研究，最適化投資人到期時財富之效用函數，並用Cox & Huang之市場中立評價方法來解決數學模型問題。此篇研究顯示，最適之投資策略可以等價於某些共同基金之投資組合，這些共同基金能利用金融市場上之主要資產(market primary assets)來複製。 / In this study, we consider a portfolio selection problem for long-term investors. Dynamic investment strategy with the continuous-time framework incorporating the minimum guarantees are constructed. Maximizing expected utility of the terminal wealth is employed by investors to trade off profits in good future state against losses incurred in worse states. Follow the previous works of Deelstra et al. (2003), we concentrate on the simplest case of a one-factor Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) model in formulating the stochastic variation from the interest rate risks. Under the market completeness assumption, the fund growth is modelled under the market neutral valuation and the optimal rules are mapped into the static variational problem of Cox and Huang (1989). In this study, we show that the optimal portfolio is equivalent to a certain mutual fund that can be replicated by the market primary assets

Thesis (M.Com. (Economics & Economic History)) - Rhodes University, 2009. / A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Masters in Commerce (Financial Markets)

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Stanford University, 2001. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 119-121).

Background: The expansive monetary policy of the European Central Bank has been leading to all-time-low interest rates and to a strong move into real estate investment. Low interest rates can work in favor of the investor (due to low interest rate expenditures), but increasing interest rates can jeopardize real estate investments. Since changes in interest rates are unpredictable, an investor needs to deal with this volatility. The capital market offers several financial instruments (so-called “derivatives”) to overcome the above-mentioned obstacle. There is no “one-size-fits-all” strategy. The investor needs to decide which financing structure to combine with which form of derivative. Purpose: The investigation not only explains and shows how real estate financing and hedging strategies on a given project in Germany can work but also explains why it is crucial to link these segments. To achieve this purpose, the return on equity and return cash flows at risk are numerically estimated. The evaluative purpose will be served by using the above-mentioned ratios and cash flows to derive recommendations of action. In doing so, this study will illustrate the importance of hedging, particularly for real estate investors and investors in general. Method: Interest rates on a monthly basis for the period of June 1990 until March 2017 from Thomson Reuters Eikon and real life data from a German real estate investor and a German financial institution were collected. Thereafter, these numbers were used as a basis to perform interest rate and cash flow simulations (Monte Carlo). The simulations were used to determine superior financing and hedging strategies for the investor. Conclusion: The results of this study highlight the benefits from leveraged financing and the necessity of interest rate risk management (hedging) to obtain stabilized future cash flows and reduce volatility caused by fluctuating interest rates. Fixed rate loans offer protection against rising interest rates, but lack flexibility. Floating loans offer more flexibility but are riskier due to the unhedged interest rate exposure.

Univerzita Karlova v Praze Fakulta sociálních věd Institut ekonomických studií Název disertační práce/ Dissertation title Interest Rate Risk and Liquidity Risk of Banking Books in the Czech Republic Anglický překlad / Title in English Interest Rate Risk and Liquidity Risk of Banking Books in the Czech Republic Autor/ka/ Author Mag. Hana Džmuráňová Rok zpracování/ Year 2021 Školitel / Advisor Doc. Ing. Zdeněk Tůma CSc. Počet stran / No. of pages 197 Abstract in English The thesis Interest Rate Risk and Liquidity Risk of Banking Books in the Czech Republic deals with the management of interest rate risk and liquidity risk stemming from the core banking system purpose - the maturity transformation. Across five articles, we provide comprehensive theoretical description, regulatory background, and develop models for embedded behavioural options of client products such as non-maturity deposits, with special focus on savings accounts in the Czech Republic in one of our case studies, or loans with prepayment option. We apply our models on the major Czech and Slovak banks and we calculate the exposure of those banks to interest rate risk in terms of regulatory guidelines. We derive that all banks in our analysis are positioned to benefit when interest rates increase as demand deposits like current accounts are...

In the last two decades, duration analysis has been largely applied to fixed - income securities . However, since rising and falling interest rates have been determined to be a major cause of stock price movements, equity duration has received a great deal of attention. The duration of an equity is a measure of its interest rate risk. Duration is the sensitivity of the price of an equity with respect to the interest rate. Convexity is the sensitivity of duration with respect to the interest rate. The analysis revealed that the fractional price change and market risk of equities can be explained by duration and convexity.

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The Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) model represents the latest in powerful arbitrage-free technology for modeling the term structure and managing interest rate risk. Yet risk management strategies in the form of immunization portfolios using duration, convexity, and M-square are still widely used in bond portfolio management today. This study addresses the question of how traditional risk measures and immunization strategies perform when the term structure evolves in the HJM manner. Using Monte Carlo simulation, I analyze four HJM volatility structures, four initial term structure shapes, three holding periods, and two traditional immunization approaches (duration-matching and duration-and-convexity-matching). I also examine duration and convexity measures derived specifically for the HJM framework. In addition I look at whether portfolios should be constructed randomly, by minimizing their M-squares or using barbell or bullet structures. I assess immunization performance according to three criteria. One of these criteria corresponds to active portfolio management, and the other two correspond to passive portfolio management. Under active portfolio management, an asset portfolio is successfully immunized if its holding period return is greater than or equal to the holding period return of the liability portfolio. Under passive portfolio management, the closer the returns of the asset portfolio to the returns of the liability portfolio, the better the immunization performance. The results of the study suggest that, under the active portfolio management criterion, and with the duration matching strategy, HJM and traditional duration measures have similar immunization performance when forward rate volatilities are low. There is a substantial deterioration in the immunization performance of traditional risk measures when there is high volatility. This deterioration is not observed with HJM duration measures. These results could be due to two factors. Traditional risk measures could be poor risk measures, or the duration matching strategy is not the most appropriate immunization approach when there is high volatility because yield curve shifts would often be large. Under the active portfolio management criterion and with the duration and convexity matching strategy, the immunization performance of traditional risk measures improves considerably at the high volatility segments of the yield curve. The improvement in the performance of the HJM risk measures is not as dramatic. The immunization performance of traditional duration and convexity measures, however, deteriorates at the low volatility segments of the yield curve. This deterioration is not observed when HJM risk measures are used. Overall, with the duration and convexity matching strategy, the immunization performance of portfolios matched with traditional risk measures is very close to that of portfolios matched with the HJM risk measures. This result suggests that the duration and convexity matching approach should be preferred to duration matching alone. Also the result shows that the underperformance of traditional risk measures under high volatility is not due to their being poor risk measures, but rather due to the reason that the duration matching strategy is not an appropriate immunization approach when there is high volatility in the market. Under the passive portfolio management criteria, the performances of traditional and HJM measures are similar with the duration matching strategy. Less than 29% of the duration matched portfolios have returns within one basis point of the target yield, whereas almost all are within 100 basis points of the target yield. These results suggest that the duration matching strategy might not be sufficient to generate cash flows close to those of the target bond. The duration measure assumes a linear relation between the bond price and the yield change, and the nonlinearities that are not captured by the duration measure might be important. When the duration and convexity matching strategy is used, more than 36% of the portfolios are within one basis point of the target with HJM risk measures. This dramatic improvement in the immunization performance of HJM measures is not guaranteed for traditional risk measures. In fact, there are certain cases in which the performance of traditional risk measures deteriorates with the duration and convexity matching strategy. In this respect, choosing the correct risk measure is more important than the immunization strategy when passive portfolio management is pursued. Under active portfolio management criterion, there is no significant difference among bullet, barbell, minimum M-square, and random portfolios with both duration matching and duration and convexity matching strategies. Under the passive portfolio management criterion, bullet portfolios produce closer returns to the target for short holding periods when the duration matching strategy is used. With the duration and convexity matching strategy, bullet, barbell and minimum M-square portfolios produce closer returns to the target for short holding periods. Random portfolios perform as well as bullet, barbell and minimum M-square portfolios for medium to long holding periods. These results suggest that when the duration matching strategy is used, bullet portfolios are preferable to other portfolio formation strategies for short holding periods. When the duration and convexity matching strategy is used, no portfolio formation strategy is better than the other. Under the active portfolio management criterion, minimum M-square portfolios are successfully immunized under each yield curve shape and volatility structure considered. Under the passive portfolio management criterion, minimum M-square portfolios perform better for short holding periods, and their performance deteriorates as the holding period increases, irrespective of the volatility level. This suggests that the performance of minimum M-square portfolios is more sensitive to the holding period rather than the volatility. Therefore, minimum M-square portfolios would be preferred in the markets when there are large changes in volatility. Overall, the results of the study suggest that, under the active portfolio management criterion and with the duration matching strategy, traditional duration measures underperform their HJM counterparts when forward rate volatilities are high. With the duration and convexity matching strategy, this underperformance is not as dramatic. Also no particular portfolio formation strategy is better than the other under the active portfolio management criterion. Under the passive portfolio management criterion, the duration matching strategy is not sufficient to generate cash flows closer to those of the target bond. The duration and convexity matching strategy, however, leads to substantial improvement in the immunization performance of the HJM risk measures. This improvement is not guaranteed for the traditional risk measures. Under the passive portfolio management criterion, bullet portfolios are preferred to other portfolio formation strategies for short holding periods. For medium to long holding periods, however, the portfolio formation strategy does not significantly affect immunization performance. Also, the immunization performance of minimum M-square portfolios is more sensitive to the holding period rather than the volatility. / Ph. D.