The object of this research is to determine whether U.S. commercial banks could have predicted in advance the debt crises of the developing countries, i.e., whether a particular LDC would reschedule or default on its loans. A secondary purpose was to determine whether the debt crisis was the fault of the banks or the developing countries who reneged on their loan contracts. What do the banks have to do to prevent this from happening? What do they have to do to manage country risk effectively? The study begins with a historical account of the United States banking system to the period of debt rescheduling by the LDCs. It continues by describing the different types of risks in international banking. Next it discusses the theoretical issues of LDC debt, including sustainability of debt policy, optimal level of country borrowing, optimal bank foreign lending, and credit rationing by the banks. This is followed by a description of the regulatory aspects of country risk management. The important issue of country risk management by U.S. banks is next, including a discussion of the various assessment methods used and a review of the major empirical studies that used econometric methods for predicting the incidence of external debt defaults. The empirical research investigates debt rescheduling by less developed countries. Linear discriminant function and logistic discrimination approaches were used to determine the predictive ability of any particular subset of economic variables. The sample comprises data on 37 countries over a period of 10 years, 1974-1983. This period was chosen because it was a time of important economic transition. The results of the discriminant and logistic analyses show modest discriminatory power for predicting the rescheduling of debt of a country with the set of economic predictors used.

The effects of foreign expansion on the market values of U.S. banks (USBs) are examined in this study. The results show that shareholders of USBs experience significant abnormal returns of -0.17 percent when banks announce foreign expansions. Abnormal returns are insignificant when the announced mode of expansion is through a representative office, are significantly positive for announcements related to branches, and are significantly negative when the announced mode of expansion is through formation of a joint venture or a subsidiary, or through an acquisition. Abnormal returns are significantly negative when banks announce expansion into developed countries, and are significantly positive when announcements relate to risky developing countries. Post-announcement changes in the total variance of returns and in the unsystematic risk of USBs are inversely related with abnormal returns. Higher wealth effects are associated with higher levels of prior overseas experience.

This thesis argues that one type of multinational entity – the multinational bank – poses particularly significant challenges to the international tax regime in terms of its current profit allocation rules. Multinational banks are a unique subset of multinational entities, and as a consequence of their unique traits, the traditional international tax regime foes not yield an optimal interjurisdictional allocation of taxing rights. The opportunity for tax minimisation, achievable because of the unique traits, and realised through exploitation of the traditional source and transfer pricing regime, results in a jurisdictional distribution of taxing rights which does not reflect economic reality. There are two distinct ways in which the traditional international tax regime fails to reflect economic activity. The first way that economic activity may not be reflected in the distribution of the taxing rights to income from multinational banking is through the application of traditional source rules. The traditional sources rules allocate income where transactions are completed rather than where the intermediation services are arranged. As a result of their unique commercial role as financial intermediaries, by separating intermediary economic activity from legal transactions with third parties, multinational banks may distort the true location of the activity giving rise to income. The second way in which the traditional tax regime may fail to reflect economic activity is through the traditional transfer pricing regime requiring related or internal transaction to be undertaken at an arm’s length price. The arm’s length pricing requirement is theoretically deficient in its failure to recognise the highly integrated nature of multinational banking. In practice, the arm’s length pricing requirement is also difficult, if not impossible, to apply to multinational banks because of the requirement of comparability. The difficulties associated with the current model have resulted in a subtle move by multinational banks towards global formulary apportionment. This thesis concludes that, for the international taxation of multinational banks, the current source regime should be replaced with a system that allocates profits for tax purposes on the basis of income source, with source determined using a unitary taxation or global formulary apportionment system. It is argued that global formulary apportionment is a theoretically superior model that provides both jurisdiction to tax and allocated profits on the basis of the economic activity that generates the income.

There is a renewed interest in further exploring the significance of culture to the accounting disclosure model in view of a highly competitive global business environment. To date, there is no empirical research to investigate this issue with respect to a specific industry, namely banking. There are three main reasons for focusing only on the banking industry (Hooi 2004). First, it is considered to be the most important industry for the country’s economic and financial stability. Moreover, the IASB has recognised its significance by issuing unique accounting standards i.e. IAS30, IAS32 and IAS39. Second, Saidenberg and Schuermann (2003) argue that with the scope and complexity of Basel II, it provides opportunities for researching issues through Pillar 3. Third, with national banking systems being non-homogenous, it is important to investigate the effects of national culture because prior research has argued that cultural differences have partly explained international differences in disclosure framework of accounting systems. The purpose of this study is to apply and extend Gray’s (1988) theoretical framework of national culture with respect to four research questions. First, to contribute to Gray’s (1988) theory of cultural influence on international banking disclosures. Second, to investigate the possible significance of investor protection to the banking disclosure model. Third, to explore Gray’s (1988) theory on the relationship of national culture to capital market research using banking returns. Fourth, to investigate the value relevance of investor protection and banking disclosures to the returns model. Seventeen developed and developing countries with a representative sample of 37 listed domestic commercial banks were examined in 2004. For the disclosure model, the study finds that national culture is a significant factor in the banking industry. Individualism has been found as the primary cultural dimension for banking disclosures. Moreover, the explanatory power of the model significantly improves with the legal dimensions of common law and anti-director rights. The positive association between common law and banking disclosures is consistent with La Porta et al. (1998) which argue that common law countries with stronger investor protection are more transparent than civil law countries. However, there is a negative association between investor protection variable of anti-director rights with banking disclosures. This may suggest that investor protection does not encourage minority investors to enter the stock market specifically in the global banking industry. This situation may lead to a lack of demand for transparency through a smaller dispersion of ownership across the domestic banks. For the returns model, the study finds that national culture is value relevant in the banking industry. Collectivism and power distance have been found to be the two primary cultural dimensions for banking returns. Moreover, the explanatory power of the model significantly improves with anti-director rights and banking disclosures. These results are (1) consistent with La Porta et al. (2002) which argue that investor protection increases firm valuation with respect to Tobin’s Q and (2) international investors tend to support the Basel Committee’s commitment in providing a more transparent framework by implementing Pillar 3 in the near future, starting with the Basel member countries. Finally, an interesting finding from the study is that firm size has a negative association with banking returns.

The overall objective of this study was to determine the effect of Basel ll on the South African banking system through possible changes in the way in which a bank conducts its business. This purpose arose from the publication of the new Basel ll Framework on 26 June 2004, which has been adopted for implementation by the South African Reserve Bank. South Africa has set January 1, 2008 as the implementation date for Basel ll. The South African banks have mainly been focussing their efforts on becoming Basel ll compliant. Business line management and marketers have up until now not paid much attention to the likely impact of Basel ll on their markets and product offerings. A literature study was undertaken which included a review of the Basel ll Framework, impact studies and a review of the relevant literature on the topic. The Framework was analysed in order to determine the major impact themes. Once these impact themes were identified, the literature on those areas of impact was researched. The analysis of the Basel ll Framework identified three important themes that will have a significant impact on banks. There will firstly be an impact on market segments and product offerings. Secondly, there will be an internal impact on the banks in the form of increased costs, decision-making and capital management. The final theme identified was the global impact on the banks, especially regarding procyclicality and mergers and acquisitions. vii The research indicates that there will be both winners and losers. Banks that have large retail and mortgage exposures will benefit the most from Basel ll, whereas banks that have large exposures to sovereigns, banks and specialised lending portfolios will be negatively impacted. A capital charge for operational risk will mean that some areas such as corporate finance and asset management will be allocated capital, which was not the case under Basel l. Studies indicate that this new operational risk capital requirement more than outweighs any reduction in credit risk capital requirements. Customers that have high credit ratings are more likely to benefit from lower credit spreads. Similarly customers that have poor credit ratings can expect an increase in their pricing due to the higher capital requirements for these customers, unless they can provide a bank with ancillary revenues. Competition in the retail and mortgage markets will intensify due to the favourable capital requirements for these portfolios. The large South African banks will become takeover targets because of their large exposures to these markets. Basel ll will have a major impact on the way in which banks will do business in the future and as a result banks should view the implementation of the Framework as an opportunity to gain strategic advantages rather than just a compliance obligation. / Prof. A. Boessenkool

[pt] Este trabalho analisa a construção dos padrões regulatórios bancários internacionais a partir de uma perspectiva de Relações Internacionais. Tem como objeto a transformação regulatória observada em Basileia III no pós-crise 2007/2008, como forma de acessar a problemática mais ampla do Poder Estrutural no Sistema Monetário Internacional. A hipótese que guia o estudo é a de que apesar da regulação bancária internacional ser concernente ao poder estrutural do dólar há espaço de atuação política aos países emergentes/periféricos, na dimensão institucional internacional e ideacional. Analisa-se o sistema monetário internacional a partir de seus elementos constitutivos e os processos políticos, econômicos e ideacionais que conformam a história da regulação bancária internacional. Este tema representa, desde a perspectiva dos países periféricos, um pouco problematizado espaço de política internacional. Parte-se de análise epistemológica sobre o campo para realizar análise teórica sobre o Poder Estrutural e sua aplicação à análise do SMI. Considera-se o surgimento da regulação bancária internacional em meados dos anos 1970 e procura-se explorar como os marcos regulatórios acordados no BCBS (Basel Committee on Banking Supervision) foram atingidos em relação aos eventos de crise que marcaram o sistema monetário internacional a partir dos anos 1980. Exploram-se, nesse sentido, os condicionantes estruturais e locais que levaram ao surgimento dos acordos de Basileia I, II e III. As conclusões consolidadas pelo estudo revelam a importância dos elos ideacionais e da atuação institucional advocatícia para a definição dos padrões de regulação bancária internacional e demonstram a possibilidade de um espaço político para atuação dos países mal posicionados em relação à hierarquia monetária internacional. / [en] This dissertation aims to analyze the construction of international banking regulatory standards from an International Relations perspective. Its object is the regulatory transformation observed in Basel III in the post-2007/2008 crisis as a way of accessing the broader problem of Structural Power in the International Monetary System and the political space available to peripheral countries in this context. The hypothesis that guide the study is that even though international banking regulation is aligned to US structural power, there are political spaces for action for emerging/peripheral countries in the international institutional and ideational dimensions. Therefore, it analyzes the international monetary system from its constituent elements and the political, economic and ideational processes that have shaped international banking regulation. This topic represents an under problematized space of international relations. The work departs from an epistemological analysis and follows through a theoretical analysis of Structural Power and its application towards the International Monetary System. It then considers the emergence of international banking regulation in the mid-1970s and seeks to explore how regulatory frameworks agreed upon the BCBS (Basel Committee on Banking Supervision) were achieved in relation to crisis events that have characterized the international monetary system since the 1980s. In this sense, the structural and local constraints that led to the emergence of the Basel I, II and III agreements are explored. The conclusions consolidated by the study reveal the importance of ideational links and institutional action for standards definition in international banking regulation and suggest a political space for action by countries poorly positioned in the international monetary hierarchy.

The neo-liberal policies of liberalization and deregulation, as utilized by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its dealings with countries of the developing world, tend to facilitate the conditions for financial crisis. This can be traced by examining the economic crises of Mexico in 1982 and 1994/95, Asia in 1997 and Russia in 1998 and looking at the main causes and triggers of these crises. It is evident that the financial vulnerability that these countries suffered from existed due to, and not in spite of, these policy prescriptions. The IMF continues to present these policies as proven successes - a view that this dissertation contests. Further to this, the policies that the Fund uses are formulated for use in semi-peripheral economies and have little relationship to the actual economic environments of peripheral countries such as those of sub-Saharan Africa or Papua New Guinea. The ideology of free-markets and globalization is seen as unassailable by the IMF. By encouraging countries to remain part of the global financial system through debt rescheduling and open-markets policies, the IMF holds an increasingly fragile economic environment together. This dissertation formulates and tests four hypotheses in relation to Mexico, Asia, Russia and Papua New Guinea and the periphery. These are - (1) If there are periods of 'irrational exuberance' among investors in Third World debt, these are likely to contribute to debt crises. (2) If IMF policies are implemented in the Third World as dictated, then their primary benefits will accrue to the elites in those countries and in the developed world. (3) If Third World countries open their economies to foreign capital, then they are more likely to experience debt crises. (4) If IMF policies are implemented in peripheral countries, then they are even less likely to be successful than in semi-peripheral countries.