[pt] No presente trabalho de tese é apresentado, analisado e avaliado um método inédito para prever perfis de poço (para um pseudo-poço), a partir de informações dos poços verticais vizinhos e dados de sísmica 3D. Este método é formado por quatro partes principais. Na primeira parte são processados os perfis de raio gama dos poços para produzir um conjunto de sinais estratificados. Estes resultados são utilizados na segunda parte para realizar a correlação lateral de poços, com um método baseado em Algoritmos Genéticos, cujos resultados são intervalos de estratos semelhantes que indicariam a existência de estruturas rochosas contínuas na subsuperfície. Na terceira parte são estimados os deslocamentos, em profundidade, entre alguns estratos do pseudo-poço e dos poços reais. Isto é realizado com um método, baseado em Algoritmos Genéticos, para correlacionar eventos entre traços sísmicos 3D nas posições próximas aos poços reais e ao pseudo-poço. Na quarta parte são utilizados os resultados das outras três partes para interpolar vários tipos de perfis do pseudo-poço, primeiramente, dos estratos semelhantes e, em seguida, dos estratos não semelhantes, ajustados em profundidade. Os resultados desta parte constituem as medições previstas. Os pesos para a interpolação, pelo método de Shepard, são calculados através de uma função que depende da distância entre o pseudo-poço e cada um dos poços utilizados. Um estudo de sete casos é apresentado para avaliar a eficácia do método de previsão. Esses casos utilizam arranjos de dois e três poços do Campo de Namorado na Bacia de Campos (RJ) e, adicionalmente, um poço próximo a cada arranjo serve de padrão para avaliar as medições previstas através do coeficiente de correlação e da média dos erros percentuais absolutos. Em termos globais os resultados das previsões apresentam correlação linear forte e os erros percentuais absolutos estão entre 5 por cento e 30 por centoem relação aos padrões. / [en] In this thesis is presented, analyzed and evaluated a new method to forecast well logs (for a pseudo-well), based on information of the neighboring vertical wells and the 3D seismic data. This method consists of four main parts. In the first part, the gamma ray logs from wellbores are processed to produce a stratified set of signals. In the second part, the stratified signals are used to perform a method of lateral correlation of wells with Genetic Algorithms; whose results are similar intervals strata that would indicate the existence of continuous rock structures in the subsurface. In the third part, a method, based on Genetic Algorithms, are used to estimate displacements in depth between some strata of the pseudo-well and real wells. That method correlates events between 3D seismic traces at positions near the real wells and the pseudo-well. In the fourth part, results from the other three parts are used to interpolate several types of logs of the pseudo-well, first of the similar strata and then of the not similar strata, adjusted in depth. The results of this part are the forecasted measurements. The weights for interpolation, by the method of Shepard, are calculated using a function that depends on the distance between the pseudo-well and each real well. A study of seven cases is presented to evaluate the effectiveness of the forecasting method. These cases use arrangements of two and three wells of the Namorado Field in the Campos Basin (RJ) and additionally a real well near each array serves as a standard for evaluating the forecasted measurements by the correlation coefficient and the mean absolute percentage error. Overall the results showed a strong linear correlation and the mean absolute percentage errors are between 5 per cent and 30 per cent in relation of standard data.

In this thesis, we study numerical analysis for random processes and fields. We investigate the behavior of the approximation accuracy for specific linear methods based on a finite number of observations. Furthermore, we propose techniques for optimizing performance of the methods for particular classes of random functions. The thesis consists of an introductory survey of the subject and related theory and four papers (A-D). In paper A, we study a Hermite spline approximation of quadratic mean continuous and differentiable random processes with an isolated point singularity. We consider a piecewise polynomial approximation combining two different Hermite interpolation splines for the interval adjacent to the singularity point and for the remaining part. For locally stationary random processes, sequences of sampling designs eliminating asymptotically the effect of the singularity are constructed. In Paper B, we focus on approximation of quadratic mean continuous real-valued random fields by a multivariate piecewise linear interpolator based on a finite number of observations placed on a hyperrectangular grid. We extend the concept of local stationarity to random fields and for the fields from this class, we provide an exact asymptotics for the approximation accuracy. Some asymptotic optimization results are also provided. In Paper C, we investigate numerical approximation of integrals (quadrature) of random functions over the unit hypercube. We study the asymptotics of a stratified Monte Carlo quadrature based on a finite number of randomly chosen observations in strata generated by a hyperrectangular grid. For the locally stationary random fields (introduced in Paper B), we derive exact asymptotic results together with some optimization methods. Moreover, for a certain class of random functions with an isolated singularity, we construct a sequence of designs eliminating the effect of the singularity. In Paper D, we consider a Monte Carlo pricing method for arithmetic Asian options. An estimator is constructed using a piecewise constant approximation of an underlying asset price process. For a wide class of Lévy market models, we provide upper bounds for the discretization error and the variance of the estimator. We construct an algorithm for accurate simulations with controlled discretization and Monte Carlo errors, andobtain the estimates of the option price with a predetermined accuracy at a given confidence level. Additionally, for the Black-Scholes model, we optimize the performance of the estimator by using a suitable variance reduction technique.

Depuis 2006, à EDF, les études de crues extrêmes sont réalisées avec la méthode SCHADEX (Simulation Climato-Hydrologique pour l'Appréciation des Débits EXtrêmes). Elle s'appuie sur un modèle probabiliste MEWP (distribution saisonnière utilisant une classification par type de temps) pour décrire l'aléa pluie et sur une simulation stochastique croisant l'aléa pluie et l'aléa de saturation du bassin. Les approches par simulation, type SCHADEX, ont montré de bonnes performances pour estimer les distributions de crues extrêmes (projet ANR ExtraFlo , 2013). Cependant, l'utilisation de SCHADEX en l'absence de données (pluie, température, débit) sur le bassin à étudier reste problématique. Cette thèse propose une adaptation de la méthode en site non jaugé en essayant de conserver ses points forts, à savoir: - une structuration spatiale et probabiliste des précipitations conditionnée par les types de temps. - un croisement des aléas pluie et saturation du bassin par simulation stochastique. Ce travail s'est limité au pas de temps journalier afin d'aborder la problématique de régionalisation avec un maximum de données. La démarche s'est alors articulée autour de quatre grands axes: - proposer une méthode de régionalisation des précipitations journalières extrêmes ponctuelles et construire des cartes de pluies aux temps de retour remarquables. Évaluer l'intérêt d'une classification par type de temps pour la régionalisation des distributions de pluies extrêmes et qualifier l'interpolateur de pluie SPAZM pour l'estimation des pluies extrêmes. - s'intéresser à la construction de pluies de bassin (ou pluies spatiales) et en particulier à l'impact des choix de construction de cette pluie sur l'estimation des précipitations extrêmes concernant le bassin. - développer une méthode de simulation stochastique régionale permettant de proposer une distribution de débits journaliers issue d'un croisement des aléas pluies et saturation du bassin. - étudier le passage de la distribution des débits journaliers à la distribution des débits de pointe. Les principaux apports de cette thèse sont les suivants: - la prise en compte des types de temps permet d'améliorer la description des structures spatiales des précipitations extrêmes. - l'information apportée par les pluies SPAZM se révèle être précieuse pour l'estimation des pluies extrêmes en site non jaugé. - une étude de sensibilité du calcul de la pluie spatiale en fonction du nombre de postes utilisés (comparaison des pluies SPAZM et Thiessen) donne une indication sur le biais d'estimation. - le générateur de champs de pluie par bandes tournantes SAMPO permet d'étudier l'abattement sur les précipitations extrêmes et de mettre en place un modèle de correction pour les quantiles élevés des pluies spatiales SPAZM. - une nouvelle méthode de simulation stochastique peu paramétrée mais analogue à la méthode SCHADEX (croisement d'un aléa pluie et d'un aléa de saturation du bassin pour produire une distribution des débits journaliers) est proposée pour l'estimation en site non jaugé. - enfin, un travail préliminaire donne des premiers éléments sur le passage à la distribution des débits de pointe par un générateur d'hydrogrammes s'adaptant à la séquence des débits journaliers simulés. Tous ces développements et conclusions sont détaillés et justifiés dans le mémoire de thèse. / Since 2006, at EDF, extreme flood estimations are computed with the SCHADEX method (Climatic-hydrological simulation of extreme floods). This method relies on a MEWP probabilistic model (seasonal rainfall distribution using a weather pattern concept) and on a stochastic simulation to cross rainy events hazard and catchment saturation states. Simulation approaches, as SCHADEX, have shown good performances to estimate extreme flood distributions. However, the use of SCHADEX method without data for a considered catchment (rain, temperature, runoff) remains a main issue. This thesis suggests an adaptation of the method in ungauged context, trying to keep the key points of the SCHADEX method: - spatial and probabilistic structure of rainfall conditioned by weather patterns. - a cross of rainfall and catchment saturation hazards by stochastic simulation. This work is limited to a daily step to address the issue of regionalization with a maximum of data. The approach is then structured around four main points: - regionalize punctual daily extreme precipitations and construct maps of return period rainfalls. Evaluate the contribution of a weather type classification for the regionalization of extreme rainfall distributions and qualify the SPAZM interpolator for the estimation of extreme rainfall. - wonder about the construction of an areal rainfall and in particular about the impact of its construction choices on the estimation of extreme precipitations. - develop a regional stochastic simulation method to estimate a distribution of daily runoffs which crosses rainy events and catchment saturation hazards. - study the transposition from a daily runoff distribution to a peak flow distribution. The main contributions of this thesis are: - taking into account the weather types improves the description of spatial patterns of extreme precipitations. - information provided by the SPAZM rainfall interpolator proves to be valuable for the estimation of extreme rainfall in ungauged site. - a sensitivity analysis of the calculation of the areal rainfall based on the number of stations used (comparison SPAZM and Thiessen areal rainfalls) gives an indication of the estimation bias. - the SAMPO rainfall generator used to study the areal reduction factor of extreme precipitation and implement a correction model for high quantiles of SPAZM areal rainfall. - a simplified method of stochastic simulation similar to SCHADEX method (cross between a rainfall hazard and a catchment saturation hazard) is developed to produce a distribution of daily flows in ungauged site. - finally, preliminary work provides a way for the transition to the peak flow distribution using a hydrograph generator adapted to the sequence of daily simulated runoffs. All these developments and conclusions are detailed and justified in the thesis.STAR

Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T19:55:39Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 5990.pdf: 3991723 bytes, checksum: 8f7428459353354f21c1db08bd391507 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-02-27 / Universidade Federal de Sao Carlos / The industrial production of fuel ethanol and sugar generates the main byproduct of sugarcane bagasse, which is burned in boilers for power generation. However, as a lignocellulosic material (consisting basically of three polymers: cellulose, hemicellulose and lignin), bagasse can be reused for the production of second generation bioethanol (2G), which is a renewable and environmentally friendly biofuel. For industrial 2G bioethanol production becomes economically feasible, the use of all fermentable fractions present in the bagasse is required: C6 fraction (cellulose) and C5 fraction (hemicellulose). These fractions are subjected to hydrolysis processes that generate as main sugars glucose and xylose respectively. It is important, therefore, that the microorganism employed for the production of ethanol 2G is able to utilize all the sugars generated during the hydrolysis process. In this work we chose the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae to be the main microorganism used in the industrial production of ethanol, although unfortunately, this yeast is unable to ferment xylose. However, while S. cerevisiae does not use xylose, can ferment xylulose obtained by isomerization of xylose by the enzyme glucose isomerase. The objective of this study was to develop and evaluate technological alternatives for the production of ethanol 2G from hexoses and pentoses using wild S. cerevisiae. In relation to the C6 fraction, in this work two important aspects have been addressed: i) study of the operation regime of a fed-batch reactor enzymatic hydrolysis of the C6 fraction of bagasse from sugarcane, yielding values of final glucose concentration of 200 g.L-1, higher than 45 g.L-1 achieved in batch reactor; ii) kinetic modeling of complex systems (enzymatic hydrolysis of lignocellulosic substrates), in which an interpolator was developed using fuzzy logic as an important tool to represent the processes of enzymatic hydrolysis of lignocellulosic materials for rugged and reliable manner. Now, in relation to the C5 fraction initially applied simple techniques of Evolutionary Engineering, leading to the selection of a different strain of S. cerevisiae, adapted to assimilate xylulose in minimal medium and characterized by reduced formation of xylitol, which demonstrated a selectivity of ~7 getanol.gxilitol -1, significantly higher than the selectivity achieved by the wild strain of ~2 getanol.gxilitol -1. The selected strain was studied in batch cultures conducted in bench scale reactor under different conditions of oxygen limitation. It was found that the production of ethanol is favored over the formation of xylitol, keeping the flow of consumed xylulose above 0,5 mmol.gMS -1.h-1 for flow of oxygen consumption of 0.1 mmol.gMS -1.h-1, reaching in this condition selectivities around 4 getanol.gxilitol -1. For zero flow of oxygen (anaerobic culture) or above 0,3 mmol.gMS -1.h-1, ethanol production is drastically reduced , regardless of the flow xylulose assimilated by the cells. / A produção industrial de etanol combustível e de açúcar gera como principal subproduto o bagaço de cana de açúcar, que é queimado nas caldeiras para geração de energia. Entretanto, por ser um material lignocelulósico (constituído basicamente por três polímeros: celulose, hemicelulose e lignina), o bagaço pode ser reaproveitado para a produção de bioetanol de segunda geração (2G), que é um biocombustível renovável e ambientalmente amigável. Para que a produção industrial de etanol 2G se torne economicamente viável, é necessário o aproveitamento de todas as frações fermentescíveis presentes no bagaço de cana: fração C6 (celulose) e fração C5 (hemicelulose). Estas frações são submetidas a processos de hidrólise que geram como principais açúcares glicose e xilose respetivamente. É importante, portanto, que o microrganismo empregado para a produção de etanol 2G seja capaz de utilizar todos os açúcares gerados no processo de hidrólise. Neste trabalho foi escolhida a levedura Saccharomyces cerevisiae por ser o principal microrganismo utilizado na produção industrial de álcool combustível, embora, infelizmente, esta levedura seja incapaz de fermentar xilose. No entanto, embora S. cerevisiae não utilize xilose, pode fermentar a xilulose obtida pela isomerização de xilose pela enzima xilose isomerase conhecida industrialmente como glicose isomerase. Assim, o objetivo do presente trabalho foi desenvolver e avaliar alternativas tecnológicas para a produção de etanol 2G a partir de hexoses e pentoses, utilizando S. cerevisiae selvagem. Em relação à Fração C6, neste trabalho foram abordados dois aspectos importantes: i) estudo da operação em regime de batelada alimentada de um reator de hidrólise enzimática da fração C6 do bagaço de cana de açúcar, obtendo-se valores de concentração final de glicose de cerca de 200 g.L-1, superiores aos 45 g.L-1 alcançados em reator operado em bateladas simples; ii) modelagem cinética de sistemas complexos (hidrólise enzimática de substratos lignocelulósicos), no qual foi desenvolvido um interpolador utilizando a lógica fuzzy como uma ferramenta importante para representar os processos de hidrólise enzimática de materiais lignocelulósicos de forma robusta e confiável. Já em relação à Fração C5, inicialmente aplicou-se técnicas simples de Engenharia Evolutiva, levando à seleção de uma linhagem diferenciada de S. cerevisiae, adaptada à assimilação de xilulose em meio mínimo e caracterizada por reduzida formação de xilitol, a qual apresentou uma seletividade de ~7 getanol.gxilitol -1, valor significativamente superior à seletividade alcançada pela linhagem selvagem, de ~2 getanol.gxilitol -1. A linhagem selecionada foi então estudada em cultivos em batelada conduzidos em biorreator de bancada, sob diferentes condições de limitação por oxigênio. Verificou-se que a produção de etanol é favorecida, em detrimento da formação de xilitol, mantendo-se o fluxo de xilulose consumida acima de 0,5 mmol.gMS -1.h-1, para fluxo de oxigênio consumido de 0,1 mmol.gMS -1.h-1, alcançando-se nessa condição seletividades em torno de 4 getanol.gxilitol -1. Para fluxos de oxigênio nulo (cultivo anaeróbio) ou acima de 0,3 mmol.gMS -1.h-1, a produção de etanol é drasticamente reduzida, independentemente do fluxo de xilulose assimilado pelas células.

Orientador: Mario Luiz Teixeira de Moraes / Resumo: The spatial distribution pattern of tree species is one of the most important factors for the understanding of the ecological interrelationships occurring in a population or community forestry, it is vital to the understanding of how a certain species uses the resources available to establish and reproduce in a given space. Interpretation of the results of the spatial analysis of tree species provides significant subsidies for the understanding of these phenomena and indication of individuals for genetic conservation programs and forest promotion. In this context, the objective of the work was to study the spatial distribution of six natural populations of arborea specie baru (Dipteryx alata Vogel.) using the Moran index associated with a Geographic Information System and descriptive statistics of their silvicultural attributes. These populations are located in the municipalities of Paulo de Faria/SP, Campina Verde/MG, Ituiutaba/MG, Brasilândia/MS, Campo Grande/MS e Itarumã/GO. All populations had a growth over 45 cm in relation to the DAP (Diameter at Breast Height) attribute. Taking into account that the DAP attribute has a higher dendrochronological correlation, the estimated age of these natural populations would be in the range between 40 and 63 years. As regards the calculation of Moran index, populations of Ituiutaba and Itarumã presented random spatial distribution pattern, pointing high variability among its individuals, so the collection of seeds for ex situ conserv... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo) / Mestre

Direct Machining And Control (DMAC) is a new method of controlling machine tools directly from process planning software. A motion planning module is developed for the DMAC system that operates directly off path geometry without pre-tessellation. The motion planner is developed with the intent to process Bezier curves. The motion planning module includes a deterministic predictor-corrector-type curve interpolator, a dynamics limiting module, and a two-pass jerk-limited speed profiling algorithm. The methods are verified by machining an automotive surface in a clay medium and evaluating the resultant machine dynamics, feed rate, and chordal error throughout the machining process.