Sandy beaches are vulnerable to extreme erosion during large storms, as well as gradual erosion processes over months and years. Without monitoring and adaptation strategies, erosion can put people, homes, and other infrastructure at risk. To effectively manage beach resources and respond to erosion hazards, coastal managers must have a reliable means of surveying the beach to monitor erosion and accretion. These elevation surveys typically incorporate traditional ground-based surveying methods or lidar surveys flown from large, fixed-wing aircraft. While both strategies are effective, advancements in photogrammetric technology offers a new solution for topographic surveying: Structure from Motion (SfM). Using a set of overlapping aerial photographs, the SfM workflow can generate accurate topographic surveys, and promises to provide a fast, inexpensive, and reliable method for routine beach surveying. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are often successfully employed for SfM surveys but can be limited by poor weather ad government regulations, which can make flying difficult or impossible. To circumvent these limitations, a digital camera can be attached to a tall pole on a mobile platform to obtain aerial imagery, avoiding the restrictions of UAV flight. This thesis compares these two techniques of image acquisition for routine beach monitoring. Three surveys were conducted at monthly intervals on a beach on the central South Carolina coast, using both UAV and pole photogrammetry. While both methods use the same software and photogrammetric workflow, the UAV produced better results with far fewer processing artifacts compared to pole photogrammetry. / Master of Science / Beach environments are vulnerable to extreme erosion, especially in the face of sea level rise and large storms like hurricanes. Monitoring erosion is a crucial part of a coastal management strategy, to mitigate risk to coastal hazards like extreme erosion, storm surge, and flooding. Erosion monitoring usually involves repeated elevation surveys to determine how much sand is being lost from the beach, and where that sand is being eroded away. Within the past decade, Structure from Motion (SfM) photogrammetry, the process of deriving ground elevation maps from multiple overlapping aerial photographs, has become a common technique for repeated elevation surveys. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are often used to gather aerial imagery for SfM elevation surveys but are limited by poor weather conditions and government flight regulations, both of which can prohibit flight. However, similar aerial photographs can be taken with a camera mounted atop a tall pole, which can be used in wider range of weather conditions and without government regulations, providing an alternative when UAV flight is not an option. This study compares these two platforms for routine beach erosion monitoring surveys, evaluating them based on performance, cost, and feasibility. The UAV system is found to be fast, affordable, and effective, while the pole photogrammetry system is heavily affected by the slow speed of surveying and processing errors that make it unusable without significant improvement.

O Parque Estadual da Cantareira apresenta importância crucial na produção de serviços ambientais e proteção dos remanescentes de Mata Atlântica da Região Metropolitana de São Paulo. Todavia, o crescimento urbano em seu entorno se dá de forma desordenada, gerando pressões e problemas ambientais sobre essa unidade de conservação. Os estudos sobre o crescimento urbano e as análises sobre mudanças no uso e cobertura da terra permitem monitorar estas ao longo do tempo e do espaço e desta forma, indicar possíveis impactos ambientais sobre áreas protegidas. Nesse sentido, esse trabalho teve como objetivo analisar as mudanças do uso e cobertura da terra na área do Parque Estadual da Cantareira e seu entorno no período 1980-2008, além de realizar simulações de cenários futuros para a área. O trabalho foi realizado por meio da utilização de um modelo, o Land Change Modeler LCM e de mapeamentos de uso da terra existentes, associados a variáveis físicas e socioeconômicas para análise específica da expansão urbana no período. A utilização de técnicas de modelagem permitiu a geração de simulações do Uso e Cobertura da terra para o ano de 2035. Temas de restrições às mudanças, como os Parques Estaduais e Municipais existentes e de incentivos às mudanças, como o Rodoanel Mário Covas Trecho Norte, foram adicionados às simulações e possibilitaram a geração de cenários sobre o uso e cobertura da terra futuros. Considerando as limitações do uso de modelos, que são representações simplificadas da realidade, as simulações previstas pelo trabalho podem contribuir para a gestão do Parque Estadual da Cantareira, por meio de sua utilização na revisão de seu plano de manejo, e para as administrações municipais, na elaboração e revisão dos seus planos diretores, o que em última instância, traria benefícios para a amenização das pressões e dos problemas ambientais que incidem sobre essa importante unidade de conservação da Região Metropolitana de São Paulo. / Cantareira State Park has crucial importance in the production of environmental services and for the protection of the Atlantic Forest remnants of São Paulo metropolitan area. However, urban growth occurs in its surroundings in a disorganized way, generating pressures and environmental problems on this protected area. Studies on urban growth and analyses on changes in land use and land cover allow monitoring changes over time and space and in this way show possible environmental impacts on protected areas. Thus, this study aimed to analyze the changes in land use and land cover in the Cantareira State Park area and its surroundings in the period 1980-2008, besides, it carries out simulations of future scenarios for the area. The study was conducted by the use of a model, the Land Change Modeler LCM, and of existing land use mapping associated with physical and socioeconomic variables for specific analysis of urban expansion in the period. The use of modeling techniques allowed the generation of simulations of land use and land cover for the year 2035. Themes of \"restrictions to changes\", as existing \"State and Municipal Parks\", and of \"incentives to changes\", as Northern Section of the Mario Covas Rodoanel, were added to the simulation and enabled the generation of scenarios on future land Use and land Cover. Considering the limitations of the models, which are simplified representations of reality, the simulations provided by the study can contribute to the management of Cantareira State Park, through its use in the review of its management plan and to municipal administrations for preparing and reviewing its Master Plans, which ultimately would benefit the easing of pressures and environmental problems that affect this important conservation unit of São Paulo metropolitan area.

O Parque Estadual da Cantareira apresenta importância crucial na produção de serviços ambientais e proteção dos remanescentes de Mata Atlântica da Região Metropolitana de São Paulo. Todavia, o crescimento urbano em seu entorno se dá de forma desordenada, gerando pressões e problemas ambientais sobre essa unidade de conservação. Os estudos sobre o crescimento urbano e as análises sobre mudanças no uso e cobertura da terra permitem monitorar estas ao longo do tempo e do espaço e desta forma, indicar possíveis impactos ambientais sobre áreas protegidas. Nesse sentido, esse trabalho teve como objetivo analisar as mudanças do uso e cobertura da terra na área do Parque Estadual da Cantareira e seu entorno no período 1980-2008, além de realizar simulações de cenários futuros para a área. O trabalho foi realizado por meio da utilização de um modelo, o Land Change Modeler LCM e de mapeamentos de uso da terra existentes, associados a variáveis físicas e socioeconômicas para análise específica da expansão urbana no período. A utilização de técnicas de modelagem permitiu a geração de simulações do Uso e Cobertura da terra para o ano de 2035. Temas de restrições às mudanças, como os Parques Estaduais e Municipais existentes e de incentivos às mudanças, como o Rodoanel Mário Covas Trecho Norte, foram adicionados às simulações e possibilitaram a geração de cenários sobre o uso e cobertura da terra futuros. Considerando as limitações do uso de modelos, que são representações simplificadas da realidade, as simulações previstas pelo trabalho podem contribuir para a gestão do Parque Estadual da Cantareira, por meio de sua utilização na revisão de seu plano de manejo, e para as administrações municipais, na elaboração e revisão dos seus planos diretores, o que em última instância, traria benefícios para a amenização das pressões e dos problemas ambientais que incidem sobre essa importante unidade de conservação da Região Metropolitana de São Paulo. / Cantareira State Park has crucial importance in the production of environmental services and for the protection of the Atlantic Forest remnants of São Paulo metropolitan area. However, urban growth occurs in its surroundings in a disorganized way, generating pressures and environmental problems on this protected area. Studies on urban growth and analyses on changes in land use and land cover allow monitoring changes over time and space and in this way show possible environmental impacts on protected areas. Thus, this study aimed to analyze the changes in land use and land cover in the Cantareira State Park area and its surroundings in the period 1980-2008, besides, it carries out simulations of future scenarios for the area. The study was conducted by the use of a model, the Land Change Modeler LCM, and of existing land use mapping associated with physical and socioeconomic variables for specific analysis of urban expansion in the period. The use of modeling techniques allowed the generation of simulations of land use and land cover for the year 2035. Themes of \"restrictions to changes\", as existing \"State and Municipal Parks\", and of \"incentives to changes\", as Northern Section of the Mario Covas Rodoanel, were added to the simulation and enabled the generation of scenarios on future land Use and land Cover. Considering the limitations of the models, which are simplified representations of reality, the simulations provided by the study can contribute to the management of Cantareira State Park, through its use in the review of its management plan and to municipal administrations for preparing and reviewing its Master Plans, which ultimately would benefit the easing of pressures and environmental problems that affect this important conservation unit of São Paulo metropolitan area.

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Geography / Marcellus M. Caldas / Biofuel ethanol has been proposed as the most viable solution to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) from the transportation sector; however, the impact of such production on the environment is not completely known. Environmental impacts are of more concern when ethanol production occurs in areas of high biodiversity value such as the Cerrado (Brazilian savanna). The Cerrado is a global biodiversity hotspot and an important breadbasket—at the same time, it is on a path to becoming the major sugarcane ethanol-producing region in Brazil. The main goal of this dissertation is to examine the impacts of sugarcane expansion on farmers’ land use decision processes in the Cerrado and to consider its consequences on biodiversity and the impacts of climate change. In the following chapters, land change dynamics are investigated using a combination of theory and methods from geography, GIScience, economics, and ecology. Chapter 2 presents an examination of the drivers for the sugarcane expansion. The findings suggest that the Cerrado attracted mills because of the good agricultural conditions, affordable land prices, and favorable state-level fiscal incentive policies, while factors that have prevented traditional sugarcane-producing regions from meeting the increasing demand for ethanol. Chapter 3 develops a procedure to identify intensification and extensification responses at the field level. The main finding is that extensification is the main response. Additionally, this response has a higher probability of occurrence the farther an area is from a mill. Chapter 4 applies the partial adjustment framework to understand farmers’ land use decisions regarding sugarcane production. Estimates found that price of cattle have the largest cross-price elasticity with sugarcane acreage. In addition, the results suggest that acreage of sugarcane and soybean double-crop are positively correlated. Chapter 5 focuses on the impacts of climate change on land suitability for sugarcane and amphibian species. The findings show that land suitability for sugarcane is vulnerable to climate change and that the Brazilian zoning policy for sugarcane is not addressing this issue. Additionally, amphibians are affected by climate change and conflict with areas suitable for sugarcane in climate change scenarios.

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Geography / Lisa M. Harrington / Land-change science has become a foundational element of global environmental change. Understanding how complex coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) affect land change is part of understanding our planet and also helps us determine how to mitigate current and future problems. Upland birds such as the Ring-Necked Pheasant (Phasianus colchicus) have been widely studied. While myriad studies have been done that show relationships between land change driving forces and the pheasant, what are not found are long-term, comprehensive approaches that show the historical importance of how past land change drivers can be used to gain knowledge about what is happening today or what may happen in the future. This research set out to better understand how human and natural driving forces have affected land change, pheasants, and pheasant hunting in South Dakota from the early 1900s to the present. A qualitative historical geography approach was used to assemble information from historic literature and South Dakota Game, Fish, and Parks Department annual reports to show the linkages between human and natural systems and how they affect pheasant populations. A quantitative approach was used to gather information from hunters who participated in the 2006 pheasant hunting season. Two-thousand surveys were mailed that gathered socioeconomic data, information on types of land hunted, thoughts on land accessibility issues, as well as spatial information on where hunters hunted in South Dakota. Results from the hunter surveys provided some significant information. Non-resident and resident hunters tended to hunt in different parts of the state. Non-resident hunters were older, better educated, and had higher incomes than resident hunters. Resident hunters, when asked about issues such as crowded public hunting grounds and accessibility to private lands had more negative responses, whereas non-resident hunters, especially those who hunt on privately-held lands, were more satisfied with their hunting experiences. Linkages were also seen between changes in human and natural systems and pheasant populations. Some of the most important contributors to population changes were large-scale conservation policies (Conservation Reserve Program) and agricultural incentives, as well as broader economic issues such as global energy production and national demands for increases in biofuel production (ethanol and biodiesel). Many of the changes in pheasant populations caused by changes in human systems have been exacerbated by changes in natural systems, such as severe winter weather and less-than-optimal springtime breeding conditions.

Comparison of Dyna-CLUE and Land Change Modeler software for predictive modelling in the suburban area of Prague Abstract The objective of this work was to predict the development of the suburban area of Prague, using Dyna- CLUE and Land Change Modeler (LCM) software, and based on the results compare the capabilities of both these software tools. In this work I used time series of land cover data obtained by the department of applied geoinformatics and cartography, local plans of the municipalities, and information about soil protection provided by the Research Institute for Soil and Water Conservation. Based on these data, a predicted land cover map for 2020 was created in both software tools. The results were then compared and showed that the models respect the restriction of development in predetermined areas. In accordance with local plans, new residential development was properly allocated. For commercial development, the requirements were not completely fulfilled. It is evident that both models are able to create a correct map of future land cover based on specified requirements. However, the instability of LCM and the necessity of using other software while working with Dyna- CLUE somewhat complicated the work. Keywords: Dyna-CLUE, Land Change Modeler, predictive modelling, land cover, residential...

abstract: The Dhofar Cloud Forest is one of the most diverse ecosystems on the Arabian Peninsula. As part of the South Arabian Cloud Forest that extends from southern Oman to Yemen, the cloud forest is an important center of endemism and provides valuable ecosystem services to those living in the region. There have been various claims made about the health of the cloud forest and its surrounding region, the most prominent of which are: 1) variability of the Indian Summer Monsoon threatens long-term vegetation health, and 2) human encroachment is causing deforestation and land degradation. This dissertation uses three independent studies to test these claims and bring new insight about the biodiversity of the cloud forest. Evidence is presented that shows that the vegetation dynamics of the cloud forest are resilient to most of the variability in the monsoon. Much of the biodiversity in the cloud forest is dominated by a few species with high abundance and a moderate number of species at low abundance. The characteristic tree species include Anogeissus dhofarica and Commiphora spp. These species tend to dominate the forested regions of the study area. Grasslands are dominated by species associated with overgrazing (Calotropis procera and Solanum incanum). Analysis from a land cover study conducted between 1988 and 2013 shows that deforestation has occurred to approximately 8% of the study area and decreased vegetation fractions are found throughout the region. Areas around the city of Salalah, located close to the cloud forest, show widespread degradation in the 21st century based on an NDVI time series analysis. It is concluded that humans are the primary driver of environmental change. Much of this change is tied to national policies and development priorities implemented after the Dhofar War in the 1970’s. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Geography 2015

Karlstads vision är att bli en kommun med 100 000 invånare till år 2031. För att kommunen ska nå målet innebär det att fler bostäder behöver byggas. Det innebär att det kommer bli markanvändningsförändringar inom Karlstadskommun. Den urbana miljön bör påverkats när antalet invånare i Karlstad ökar. Fjärranalys är ett sätt att kunna inventera jordytans biofysiska egenskaper och antropogena förändringar. Fjärranalysen har även använts för att kvantifiera och kartlägga ekosystem-egenskaper. Ekosystemtjänster har positiv påverkan på människor, eftersom de hjälper till med att minska stress, ångest, och har positiv inverkan på återhämtning. Medvetenheten av ekosystemtjänster har ökat med åren och det medför att besluttagares och allmänheten är mer medvetna på värdet av de varor och tjänster som ekosystemtjänsterna bidrar till. Att uttrycka värdena av ekosystemtjänster i pengarvärde är ett viktigt verktyg för att ytterligare öka medvetenheten och betydelsen av ekosystem och mångfald till beslutsfattare. Med hjälp av fjärranalys går det att upptäcka att det har skett en del marktäckes- och markanvändningsförändringar runt om i Karlstads tätort. Tydliga förändringar upptäcktes runt Välsviken och vid Bergviks köpcenter, har det uppkommit nya byggnader. Vid den gamla flygplatsen har ett nytt bostadskvarter byggts samt vid områdena Stockfallet och Campus har expanderats med fler bostäder och andra byggnader.Studien har visat att nybyggnationer sker på bekostnad av främst skog. Detta medför att en del av de naturliga ekosystemtjänsterna försvinner. Totalt har 1 016 ha skog och 154 ha vatten försvunnit, det har tillkommit 196 ha öppen mark och bebyggelse har ökat med 975 ha i Karlstads tätort.Ett ekosystemvärde på 58 986 Int$/ha/år för skog har försvunnit från Karlstads tätortsområde, det motsvarar en förminskning på 30 % på 13 år. Medans öppen mark har ett ekosystemvärde som motsvarar 6 272 Int$/ha/år som har tillkommit i området. Det är en ökning på 0,7 %. Vattnet har ett värde på 2 310 Int$/ha/år, som motsvarar en förminskning på 0,6 %. Ett ekosystemtjänstvärde av totalt 61 238 Int$/ha/år har försvunnit från Karlstad. Invånare som bor i centrum kommer få längre till ekosystemtjänsterna som finns i skogen, men även mycket av de natursköna vyerna kommer försvinna från staden. Eftersom växlighet ingår i infrastrukturen kommer invånarna fortfarande ha tillgång till en del ekosystemtjänster i staden. / The municipality of Karlstad has a vision to reach 100,000 inhabitants by year 2031, which leads to that more housing is needed. In conclusion, more housing leads to land cover changes in the municipality. Remote sensing is one way to discoverer soil biophysical properties and anthropogenic changes. It has even been used to quantify and map ecosystem properties. Ecosystem services have a positive effect on people, because they help to reduce stress, depression and have a good impact on recovery. The awareness of ecosystem services has increased, it means that decision makers and the public are now more aware of the significant value of ecosystem services. Through remote sensing, land use and land cover changes can be observed in Karlstad’s urban area. As prominent changes, in the areas around Välsviken and Bergviks shopping mall, new buildings were created. At the old airport, a new residential area was constructed. Further changes could be observed in areas around Stockfallet and Campus where more residential buildings were constructed. When forests are converted to new residential areas, some natural ecosystem services disappear. The municipality of Karlstad has experienced losses that amount to a total of 1017 ha forest and 154 ha water in 13 years. It has an ecosystem service value of 61 238 Int$/ha/year and that has disappeared from Karlstad. It corresponds a loss of 30 percent of the ecosystem services. While open fields have increased with 6272 ha and has a value of 6272 Int$/ha/year. Citizens that are living in the centre is going to have a longer distance to ecosystem services in the forest. Much of the scenic views will disappeared from Karlstad. Because vegetation is included in infrastructures will residents still have access to ecosystem services in the city.

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Der Einfluss des Menschen verändert die Erdoberfläche in gravierendem Maße. Die Anwendung von Landnutzungsmodellen ist etabliert, um derartige Prozesse zu analysieren und um Handlungsempfehlungen für Entscheidungsträger zu geben. Landnutzungsmodelle stehen unter dem Einfluss von Unsicherheiten, welche beim Interpretieren der Ergebnisse berücksichtigt werden müssen. Dennoch gibt es wenige Ansätze, die unterschiedliche Unsicherheitsquellen mit ihren Interdependenzen untersuchen und ihre Auswirkungen auf die projizierte Änderung der Landschaft analysieren. Aus diesem Grund ist das erste Ziel dieser Arbeit einen systematischen Ansatz zu entwickeln, der wesentliche Unsicherheitsquellen analysiert und ihre Fortentwicklung zur resultierenden Änderungskarte untersucht. Eine andere Herausforderung in der Landnutzungsmodellierung ist es, die Eignung von Projektionen abzuschätzen wenn keine Referenzdaten vorliegen. Bayes’sche Netze wurden als eine vielseitige Methode identifiziert, um das erste Ziel zu erreichen. Darüber hinaus wurden die Modellierungsschritte „Definition der Modellstruktur“, „Auswahl der Eingangsdaten“ und „Weiterverarbeitung der Daten“ als wesentliche Unsicherheitsquellen identifiziert. Um das zweite Ziel zu adressieren wurde eine Auswahl an Maßzahlen entwickelt. Diese quantifizieren Unsicherheit mit Hilfe einer projizierten Änderungskarte und ohne den Vergleich mit Referenzdaten. Mit diesen Maßzahlen ist es zusätzlich möglich zwischen quantitativer und räumlicher Unsicherheit zu unterscheiden. Vor allem in räumlichen Anwendungen wie der Landnutzungsmodellierung ist diese Möglichkeit wertvoll. Dennoch kann auch ein absolut sicheres Modell gleichzeitig ein falsches und nutzloses Modell sein. Deswegen wird ein Ansatz empfohlen, der die Beziehung zwischen Unsicherheit und Genauigkeit in bekannten Zeitschritten schätzt. Die entwickelten Ansätze geben wichtige Informationen um die Eignung von modellierten Entwicklungspfaden der Landnutzung zu verstehen. / Human influence has led to substantial changes to the Earth’s surface. Land change models are widely applied to analyze land change processes and to give recommendations for decision-making. Land change models are affected by uncertainties which have to be taken into account when interpreting their results. However, approaches which examine different sources of uncertainty with regard to their interdependencies and their influence on projected land change are rarely applied. The first objective of this thesis is therefore to develop a systematic approach which identifies major sources of uncertainty and the propagation to the resulting land change map. Another challenge in land change modeling is the estimation of the reliability of land change predictions when no reference data are available. Bayesian Belief Networks were identified as a useful technique to reach the first objective. Moreover, the modeling steps of “model structure definition”, “data selection” and “data preprocessing” were detected as relevant sources of uncertainty. To address the second research objective, a set of measures based on probabilities were developed. They quantify uncertainty by means of a single predicted land change map without using a reference map. It is additionally possible to differentiate uncertainty into its spatial and quantitative components by means of these measures. This is especially useful in spatial applications such as land change modeling. However, even a certain model can be wrong and therefore useless. Therefore, an approach is suggested which estimates the relationship between disagreement and uncertainty in known time steps to use this relationship in future time steps. The approaches give important information for understanding the reliability of modeled future development paths of land change.