Since 1971, a number of flood frequency models have been developed for river basins in Malawi for use in the design of hydraulic structures, but the varied nature of their results have most often given a dilemma to the design engineer due to differences in magnitudes of calculated floods for given return periods. All the known methods for flood frequency analysis developed in country so far have not used a homogeneity test for the river basins from which the hydrological data has been obtained. This study was thus conducted with a view to resolving this problem and hence improve the design of hydraulic structures such as culverts, bridges, water intake points for irrigation schemes, and flood protection dykes. In light of the above, during the course of this study the applicability of existing methods in the design of hydraulic structures was assessed. Also, the study investigated how land use and land cover change influence the frequency and magnitude of floods in the study area, and how their deleterious impacts on the socio-economic and natural environment in the river basins could be mitigated / Environmental Sciences / M. Sc. (Environmental Management)

Made available in DSpace on 2014-07-29T16:23:34Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese Ricardo Dobrovolski.pdf: 1981880 bytes, checksum: 8c60352c3d999171ab957f065b32a9db (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-04-10 / Agriculture is the human activity with the greatest impact on the environment. Specifically, it represents the greatest threat to biodiversity. In the future, this activity should expand due to population growth, increased consumption and production of biofuels from food. To understand the possible impacts of this expansion on biodiversity, we used scenarios of land use change between 1970 and 2100 from IMAGE (Integrated Model to Access Global Environment) to test the following hypotheses: (i) areas considered as global priorities for conservation by international NGOs will be preferentially impacted by agricultural expansion in the XXI century, (ii) there is a conflict between the priority areas for carnivores conservation and agricultural expansion, and this conflict can be reduced by incorporating information on agricultural expansion in the prioritization process, (iii) the integration among countries for conservation planning may benefit both biodiversity and agricultural productivity, (iv) Brazilian protected areas will be impacted by agricultural expansion in the future and this impact will differ between protected areas of integral protection and those of sustainable use. We found that: (i) the impact on priority areas for conservation depends on the criteria by which they were set, so that areas defined by its high vulnerability are currently most affected than those of low vulnerability. Throughout the XXI century this impact is expected to increase, although the difference between the two types of priorities remains, except for High Biodiversity Wilderness Areas, defined by their low vulnerability in current time, but for which most pessimistic scenarios forecast an impact similar to priority areas of high vulnerability, (ii) there is a high spatial congruence between areas with high agricultural use in the future and priority areas for conservation of carnivores. This conflict can be reduced if the prioritization process include information on agricultural expansion; this incorporation, however, causes a profound change in the distribution of priority areas and reduces the number of protected carnivore populations, (iii) the integration of countries to create a set of priority areas for conservation that represents 17% of the land surface can protect 19% more mammal populations without reducing food production, compared to a strategy in which each country seeks to protect its territory independently, and (iv) the impact of agriculture in Brazil is expected to increase until the end of the century, threatening even the protected areas and their surroundings. This impact, however, should not be different between areas of sustainable use and those of integral protection. We conclude that agricultural expansion should remain a major threat to biodiversity in the future, even in areas of special interest for conservation. Conservation actions should be planned taking into account this threat in order to reduce their potential impacts. For this, countries like Brazil should strengthen its surveillance on agricultural expansion and on how this activity is developed. Furthermore, the integration of international conservation efforts should be pursued, given its benefits for biodiversity and food production. Finally, humanity must choose methods of agricultural production that reduce its impacts, including avoiding its future expansion, so as to meet the increasing needs of a human population globally. / A agricultura é a atividade humana com maior impacto sobre o ambiente. Particularmente, ela representa a maior ameaça à biodiversidade. No futuro, essa atividade deve expandir-se com o aumento populacional humano, o aumento do consumo e a produção de biocombustíveis a partir dos alimentos. Para entender os possíveis impactos dessa expansão sobre a biodiversidade, nós utilizamos cenários de mudança de uso do solo entre 2000 e 2100 do IMAGE (Integrated Model to Access Global Environment) para testar as seguintes hipóteses: (i) as áreas consideradas como prioridades globais de conservação pelas ONGs internacionais serão preferencialmente impactadas pela expansão agrícola no século XXI; (ii) há um conflito entre áreas prioritárias para a conservação de carnívoros e a expansão agrícola e esse conflito pode ser reduzido com a incorporação da informação sobre expansão agrícola no processo de priorização; (iii) a integração entre os países para o planejamento da conservação pode ser favorável à proteção da biodiversidade e à produção agrícola; (iv) no Brasil, as áreas protegidas serão impactadas pela expansão agrícola no futuro e esse impacto será diferente entre áreas de proteção integral e áreas de uso sustentável. Nós encontramos os seguintes resultados: (i) o impacto sobre as áreas prioritárias para a conservação depende dos critérios pelos quais elas foram definidas, assim, as áreas definidas por sua alta vulnerabilidade estão atualmente mais impactadas do que áreas de baixa vulnerabilidade. Ao longo do século XXI, o impacto geral da agricultura deve aumentar, mas a diferença entre os dois tipos de prioridades se mantém, exceto para as High Biodiversity Wilderness Areas, definidas por sua baixa vulnerabilidade, mas que nos cenários mais pessimistas podem ter um impacto agrícola semelhante ao das áreas de alta vulnerabilidade; (ii) há uma alta congruência espacial entre áreas com elevado uso agrícola no futuro e áreas prioritárias para a conservação de carnívoros; esse conflito pode ser reduzido se o processo de priorização incluir as informações sobre a expansão agrícola; a incorporação dessa informação, entretanto, provoca uma profunda alteração na distribuição das áreas prioritárias e reduz o número de populações de carnívoros protegidas; (iii) a integração entre os países para a criação de um conjunto de áreas prioritárias para conservação que represente 17% da superfície terrestre pode proteger 19% mais populações de mamíferos sem reduzir a produção de alimentos, se comparada a uma estratégia em que cada país busque proteger seu território independentemente; (iv) o impacto da agricultura no Brasil deve aumentar até o fim do século XXI, ameaçando inclusive as áreas protegidas e o seu entorno. Esse impacto, porém, não deve ser diferente entre as áreas de uso sustentável e aquelas de proteção integral. Assim, a expansão agrícola deve continuar a ser uma importante ameaça à biodiversidade no futuro, atingindo inclusive áreas de especial interesse para a conservação. As ações de conservação devem ser planejadas levando em consideração essa ameaça, a fim de reduzir seus impactos potenciais. Para isso, países como o Brasil devem reforçar sua vigilância sobre a expansão agrícola e a maneira como essa atividade é desenvolvida. Além disso, a integração internacional dos esforços de conservação deve ser buscada, dados seus benefícios para a biodiversidade e para a produção de alimentos. E por fim, a humanidade deve optar por formas de produção agrícola que reduzam seus impactos, inclusive evitando sua expansão futura, mas que possam satisfazer as necessidades da população humana globalmente.

Since human beings began to use and shape the land, their influence on their<p>environment has kept on growing so that little or no ecosystem in the world is now<p>considered as untouched. This induces pressures on ecosystem health and land scarcity.<p>Africa is of particular concern because it still presents broad undisturbed zones and<p>key ecosystem services, despite being submitted to increasing anthropogenic pressures.<p>Landscape ecology appears suitable for the study of such phenomena, thanks to its spacebased<p>integrative nature and geographical level of focus. It studies the impact of spatial<p>pattern transformation — especially heterogeneity and its components — on ecological<p>processes and provides powerful analytical tools of landscape anthropisation.<p>The main objective of this thesis is to organise the concepts and methods, from<p>landscape ecology and related disciplines, into a consistent logic, to pinpoint missing<p>analytical frameworks for response-oriented anthropisation assessment, and to apply them<p>to African cases to explore the spatial patterns of anthropisation. In order to address<p>landscape anthropisation, we assemble diverse disciplines into a logical network (DPSIR).<p>The new theoretical framework is tested on Lubumbashi (DRC). In order to address<p>spatial patterns, we first evaluate the thermodynamic connection of the term entropy in<p>landscape ecology: spatial heterogeneity, unpredictability and scale influence. Then, based<p>on 20 landscapes, we highlight the complex relationship between spatial heterogeneity<p>and landscape anthropisation. We finally use the modelled relationships to test the<p>anthropogenic origin of the spatial pattern of a land cover class in Lubumbashi.<p>The main results of this research show that several concepts are used to describe different<p>aspects of anthropisation and that its quantification strongly depends on the reference states.<p>Data formats can be combined into a new assessment method ensuring more precision<p>and comparability, but a good field knowledge is required. As for heterogeneity, the<p>existing definitions of landscape entropy follow the logic of thermodynamics or information<p>theory, that are not compatible. Only unpredictability could be properly interpreted in<p>thermodynamic terms if energy transfer measurements were performed at the appropriate<p>level. The anthropogenic effects on heterogeneity completely diverge depending on the<p>amount of already anthropised surface, on the land cover type (natural or anthropogenic),<p>and on the heterogeneity components.<p>The aforementioned findings could be adapted to include functional aspects and<p>better address the relationship between spatial pattern and ecological processes. Such<p>integration would help designing response actions that can recommend human activities<p>and spatial patterns that could optimise the use of land to ensure ecological functioning<p>while supporting human development. / <p>L’influence croissante de l’homme sur son environnement affecte désormais le monde<p>entier, ce qui induit des pressions sur la santé des écosystèmes et raréfie les ressources<p>en terres. L’Afrique présente un intérêt particulier à cet égard car elle contient de vastes<p>zones quasi vierges et fournit des services écosystémiques importants mais est soumise<p>à des pressions anthropiques croissantes. L’écologie du paysage étudie ces phénomènes<p>de façon intégrative au moyen de sa composante spatiale et de son échelle d’intérêt. Elle<p>étudie l’impact des transformations de la structure spatiale — en particulier l’hétérogénéité<p>et ses différentes composantes—sur les processus écologiques et fournit de puissants outils<p>analytiques de l’anthropisation.<p>L’objectif de cette thèse est d’organiser les concepts et méthodes de différentes disciplines<p>de façon à mettre en évidence leurs forces et faiblesses pour proposer une nouvelle<p>quantification de l’anthropisation, orientée vers la gestion, et de la tester sur des paysages<p>africains pour examiner la structure spatiale de l’anthropisation. Le DPSIR est utilisé pour<p>assembler les différents concepts. La nouvelle méthodologie est testée sur Lubumbashi<p>(RDC). Ensuite, le lien entre la thermodynamique et l’utilisation du terme entropie en<p>écologie du paysage est examiné. Vingt paysages servent alors à mettre en évidence la<p>complexité de l’impact de l’anthropisation sur l’hétérogénéité du paysage. Enfin, cette<p>modélisation sert à mettre en évidence l’origine anthropique de la structure spatiale d’une<p>classe d’occupation du sol à Lubumbashi.<p>Les résultats principaux de cette recherche sont que pléthore de termes sont utilisés<p>pour représenter différents aspects de l’anthropisation et que sa quantification dépend de<p>la définition d’états de référence. Cependant, la combinaison de différents formats de<p>données peut aboutir à une nouvelle méthodologie plus précise et adaptable, mais cela<p>nécessite une bonne connaissance de terrain. Les définitions de l’entropie dépendent soit de<p>la thermodynamique soit de la théorie de l’information, qui ne sont pas compatibles. Seule<p>l’imprévisibilité pourrait être interprétée thermodynamiquement, si les mesures de transfert<p>d’énergie étaient effectuées à l’échelle appropriée. L’impact humain sur l’hétérogénéité<p>diverge selon la quantité de surface déjà anthropisée, le type de couverture du sol pris en<p>compte ainsi que les composantes de l’hétérogénéité mesurées.<p>Ces découvertes peuvent être adaptées pour intégrer des aspects fonctionnels de la<p>structure spatiale et mieux cerner le lien entre celle-ci et le fonctionnement écologique, ce qui<p>permettrait de proposer des activités humaines et des structures spatiales qui optimiseraient<p>l’utilisation des ressources en sol pour assurer tant le fonctionnement écologique que le<p>développement humain. / Doctorat en Sciences agronomiques et ingénierie biologique / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

The provision of ecosystem services within social-ecological systems is influenced by multiple environmental and anthropogenic driving forces, affecting natural ecosystems. At the same time, the capacity of ecosystems to concurrently provide different types of ecosystem services is inherently limited. Thus, ecosystem changes and their effect on ecosystem services have direct implications for human existence and well-being. The aim of this thesis is to present a modelling approach to assess regulating, provisioning and cultural ecosystem services and to quantify their potential trade-offs, illustrated by two case studies carried out in selected UNESCO Biosphere Reserves in the Czech Republic, Třeboň Basin Biosphere Reserve and Šumava Biosphere Reserve. Both of the selected case study areas are characterized by high levels of natural and cultural assets and challenges regarding future landscape management. In this study, first the social-ecological dynamics within the study areas was analysed by creating participative scenarios through collaboration with local stakeholders, eliciting their preferences regarding future landscape development to 2050. Second, the impact of the scenarios on ecosystem services and their trade-offs were assessed using a combination of spatially explicit models and...

The provision of ecosystem services within social-ecological systems is influenced by multiple environmental and anthropogenic driving forces, affecting natural ecosystems. At the same time, the capacity of ecosystems to concurrently provide different types of ecosystem services is inherently limited. Thus, ecosystem changes and their effect on ecosystem services have direct implications for human existence and well-being. The aim of this thesis is to present a modelling approach to assess regulating, provisioning and cultural ecosystem services and to quantify their potential trade-offs, illustrated by two case studies carried out in selected UNESCO Biosphere Reserves in the Czech Republic, Třeboň Basin Biosphere Reserve and Šumava Biosphere Reserve. Both of the selected case study areas are characterized by high levels of natural and cultural assets and challenges regarding future landscape management. In this study, first the social-ecological dynamics within the study areas was analysed by creating participative scenarios through collaboration with local stakeholders, eliciting their preferences regarding future landscape development to 2050. Second, the impact of the scenarios on ecosystem services and their trade-offs were assessed using a combination of spatially explicit models and...