Friction stir welding (FSW) of HSLA steel commonly produces a hard zone (HZ) on the advancing side (AS) of the weld. Despite its detrimental effects on weld toughness, the mechanisms of its formation have not been thoroughly investigated and are not well understood. This paper investigates the various mechanisms in FSW believed to affect the weld HZ, namely: strain, strain-rate, peak temperature and cooling rate. Gleeble tests indicate that strain and strain rate have negligible effects on weld HZ with cooling rate and peak temperature as dominant effects. Jominy tests resulted in cooling rate having 270% greater influence than peak temperature on the formation of lath ferrite microstructures similar to what is observed in the HZ of FSW X65. Comparing weld HZ microstructures to Jominy tests, it is estimated that cooling rates on the AS of the weld are at least 150°C/s higher than the retreating side. Reducing the cooling rate on the AS will likely lead to an improved microstructure at the weld HZ.