Thesis (M.S.)--West Virginia University, 2005. / Title from document title page. Document formatted into pages; contains vii, 81 p. : ill. (some col.). Includes abstract. Includes bibliographical references (p. 79-81).

This dissertation analyzes pricing under uncertainty focusing on the U.S. airline industry. It sets to test theories of price dispersion driven by uncertainty in the demand by taking advantage of very detailed information about the dynamics of airline prices and inventory levels as the flight date approaches. Such detailed information about inventories at a ticket level to analyze airline pricing has been used previously by the author to show the importance of capacity constraints in airline pricing. This dissertation proposes and implements many new ideas to analyze airline pricing. Among the most important are: (1) It uses information about inventories at a ticket level. (2) It is the first to note that fare changes can be explained by adding dummy variables representing ticket characteristics. Therefore, the load factor at a ticket level will lose its explanatory power on fares if all ticket characteristics are included in a pricing equation. (3) It is the first to propose and implement a measure of Expected Load Factor as a tool to identify which flights are peak and which ones are not. (4) It introduces a novel idea of comparing actual sales with average sales at various points prior departure. Using these deviations of actual sales from sales under average conditions, it presents is the first study to show empirical evidence of peak load pricing in airlines. (5) It controls for potential endogeneity of sales using dynamic panels. The first essay tests the empirical importance of theories that explain price dispersion under costly capacity and demand uncertainty. The essay calculates a measure of an Expected Load Factor, that is used to calibrate the distribution of demand uncertainty and to identify which flights are peak and which ones are off-peak. It shows that different prices can be explained by the different selling probabilities. The second essay is the first study to provide formal evidence of stochastic peak-load pricing in airlines. It shows that airlines learn about the demand and respond to early sales setting higher prices when expected demand is high and more likely to exceed capacity.

Analyses and designs of a peak-power tracking system using microprocessor control are performed. Large-signal stability of the system for various modes of operation is analyzed to predict system dynamics. The stability analysis is supported mainly by qualitative graphical representations of different component blocks of the system. Small-signal stability analysis around the equilibrium points is done to assure proper performance and operation of this particular peak-power tracking system. Specific design details and procedures are discussed, and predictions from the analyses are verified through hardware. / Master of Science

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O objetivo desta dissertação é testar a hipótese sobre a resposta dos consumidores devido a uma alteração no sinal econômico horário das tarifas de energia elétrica. Foram examinados e testados os efeitos sobre a forma de uso de energia elétrica de 218 consumidores da empresa AES Sul para o período de janeiro de 2012 a maio de 2016, com marco na alteração tarifária a partir de abril de 2013, proposta com base na teoria de peak load pricing (preço de pico). A experiência deste caso corrobora com as hipóteses desta teoria, no qual aponta que os preços devem guardar reação com o custo marginal de atendimento e, é maior nos horários de pico. A hipótese foi testada usando o método econométrico de diferenças em diferenças, cujos resultados foram robustos ao mostrar que a alteração do sinal econômico influenciou o comportamento dos consumidores, melhorando a forma de utilização dos ativos de energia elétrica, aumentando os lucros da firma. / The objective of this dissertation is testing the hypotheses of consumers response due to a change in the hourly economic rates given through electrical energy tariffs. The effects in the form of using electrical energy of 218 consumers of the company AES Sul, due to the amendment occurred in the economic signal from April 2013 based on peak load pricing theory, were examined and tested using their data from January 2012 to May 2016. The experience of this case corroborates with the hypotheses of this theory, which indicates that prices must be linked to supply marginal cost, which is bigger at peak hours. The presented hypotheses was tested using the differences in differences econometric method, which results turned to be robust about the change in economic signal strongly influences on consumers behaviors, improving the usage of electrical assets, arising profits.

Förutom i Stockholm uppvisar den lokala kollektivtrafiken en nedåtgående trend i trafikutvecklingen, trots en årlig subvention om 10 miljarder kronor. Drift av lokal kollektivtrafik i mindre och medelstora städer baserat på samhällsekonomiska kriterier skulle bl a medföra en prispolitik som kräver en subvention om drygt 50%. Att detta ungefär motsvarar rådande subventioneringsgrad är dock inte ett tecken på att kollektivtrafiken bedrivs på samhällsekonomisk grundval, eftersom det visar sig att prisstrukturen är grovt suboptimal. Vad gäller investeringspolitik framgår det dessutom av en enkätundersökning att trafikhuvudmännen inte använder samhällsekonomisk kalkyl (CBA) vid planering och drift av lokal kollektivtrafik, så syftet med avhandlingen är att visa på de möjligheter till förbättringar av den lokala kollektivtrafiken som skulle uppstå om den bedrevs på samhällsekonomisk grundval. Operationaliseringen av teorin kräver först att några grundfrågor för en tillämpning av allmän välfärdsekonomisk teori på bedrivande av lokal kollektivtrafik benas upp. Det är väsentligt att göra en åtskillnad av utbudet av kollektiva transporttjänster mellan ett grundläggande utbud som är att betrakta som ”merit goods” och övrigt utbud där nyttan på normalt sätt mäts genom konsumenternas betalningsvilja. I en omfattande fallstudie av den lokala kollektivtrafiken i Linköping exemplifieras vad effekten blir, dels av vissa utbudsförändringar, som har sållats fram i strävan mot systemoptimum, dels av ändamålsenlig efterfrågestyrning, och med CBA beräknas vad nettoresultatet kan tänkas bli. Om förbättringar som ger lika stor nettonytta som i Linköping kan göras hos flertalet andra trafikhuvudmän med en samhällsekonomisk ansats, skulle den totala nettonyttan aggregerad över hela Sverige vara betydligt större än vad vissa av de omskrivna jätteprojekten inom kollektivtrafiksektorn kan prestera. / Except in Stockholm, local public transport shows a declining trend in spite of an annual total subsidy from the County councils of 10 billion SEK. This is fair enough. Running local bus services in small and medium sized towns in accordance with welfare economic criteria implies among other things a pricing policy which requires subsidization just above 50%, which happens to be the same as the present degree of tax-financing. However, this is just a coincidence, and not a mark of optimality, because it is found that the structure of fares is clearly suboptimal. As regards investment policy it is furthermore confirmed by a questionnaire survey that neither the principals (the County councils) nor their agents (bus companies) use cost-benefit analysis (CBA) for the design of local public transport systems, so the purpose of the thesis is to demonstrate the potential improvements of public transport in small and medium sized towns run on the basis of welfare economics. The operationalization of the welfare economic foundations requires some theoretical reorientation in the particular case of local public transport. A fundamental division of the supply is made between the “merit goods” part of total supply and the “normal goods” part, where benefit is measured by the individual willingness-to-pay. In a case study of the bus transport system of Linköping a number of generally applicable minor improvements are found by the welfare economic approach, which aggregated to the national level would imply a total net benefit which more spectacular projects in the public transport sector rarely can present.

O objetivo desta dissertação é testar a hipótese sobre a resposta dos consumidores devido a uma alteração no sinal econômico horário das tarifas de energia elétrica. Foram examinados e testados os efeitos sobre a forma de uso de energia elétrica de 218 consumidores da empresa AES Sul para o período de janeiro de 2012 a maio de 2016, com marco na alteração tarifária a partir de abril de 2013, proposta com base na teoria de peak load pricing (preço de pico). A experiência deste caso corrobora com as hipóteses desta teoria, no qual aponta que os preços devem guardar reação com o custo marginal de atendimento e, é maior nos horários de pico. A hipótese foi testada usando o método econométrico de diferenças em diferenças, cujos resultados foram robustos ao mostrar que a alteração do sinal econômico influenciou o comportamento dos consumidores, melhorando a forma de utilização dos ativos de energia elétrica, aumentando os lucros da firma. / The objective of this dissertation is testing the hypotheses of consumers response due to a change in the hourly economic rates given through electrical energy tariffs. The effects in the form of using electrical energy of 218 consumers of the company AES Sul, due to the amendment occurred in the economic signal from April 2013 based on peak load pricing theory, were examined and tested using their data from January 2012 to May 2016. The experience of this case corroborates with the hypotheses of this theory, which indicates that prices must be linked to supply marginal cost, which is bigger at peak hours. The presented hypotheses was tested using the differences in differences econometric method, which results turned to be robust about the change in economic signal strongly influences on consumers behaviors, improving the usage of electrical assets, arising profits.

O objetivo desta dissertação é testar a hipótese sobre a resposta dos consumidores devido a uma alteração no sinal econômico horário das tarifas de energia elétrica. Foram examinados e testados os efeitos sobre a forma de uso de energia elétrica de 218 consumidores da empresa AES Sul para o período de janeiro de 2012 a maio de 2016, com marco na alteração tarifária a partir de abril de 2013, proposta com base na teoria de peak load pricing (preço de pico). A experiência deste caso corrobora com as hipóteses desta teoria, no qual aponta que os preços devem guardar reação com o custo marginal de atendimento e, é maior nos horários de pico. A hipótese foi testada usando o método econométrico de diferenças em diferenças, cujos resultados foram robustos ao mostrar que a alteração do sinal econômico influenciou o comportamento dos consumidores, melhorando a forma de utilização dos ativos de energia elétrica, aumentando os lucros da firma. / The objective of this dissertation is testing the hypotheses of consumers response due to a change in the hourly economic rates given through electrical energy tariffs. The effects in the form of using electrical energy of 218 consumers of the company AES Sul, due to the amendment occurred in the economic signal from April 2013 based on peak load pricing theory, were examined and tested using their data from January 2012 to May 2016. The experience of this case corroborates with the hypotheses of this theory, which indicates that prices must be linked to supply marginal cost, which is bigger at peak hours. The presented hypotheses was tested using the differences in differences econometric method, which results turned to be robust about the change in economic signal strongly influences on consumers behaviors, improving the usage of electrical assets, arising profits.