Smart metering and precise measurement of energy consumption levels have brought more detailed information and interest on the actual load profile of a house which continues to improve consumer-retailer relationships. Participation in demand response (DR) programs is one of these relationships but studies have shown that there are considerable impacts resulting to some level of discomfort on consumers as they aim to follow a suggested load profile. This research therefore investigates the impact on consumers while participating in DR programs by evaluating various perspectives that includes:  Modelling the causes discomfort during participation in DR programs;  Evaluation of user participation capabilities in DR programs;  Identification of schedulable and non-schedulable loads and opportunities;  Application of load scheduling mechanism which caters for specific user concerns.  Investigation towards ensuring a secure and robust system design. The key source of information that enhances this work is obtained from data on historical user behavior which can be stored within a smart controller installed in the home and optimised using genetic algorithm implemented on MATLAB. Results show that user participation in DR programs can be improved and effectively managed if the challenges facing home owners are adequately understood. This is the key contribution of this work whereby load schedules created are specifically tailored to meet the need of the users hence minimizing the impact of discomfort experienced due to participation in DR programs. Finally as part of the test for robustness of the system design in order to prevent or minimize the impact of any event of a successful cyber-attack on the load or price profiles, this work includes means to managing any such attacks thereby mitigating the impact of such attacks on users who participate in demand response programs. Solutions to these attacks are also proffered with the aim of increasing robustness of the grid by being sufficiently proactive.

This thesis explores the use of machine learning as a load classifier in a distribution grid based on the daily consumption behaviour of roughly 1600 loads spread throughout the areas Bromma, Hässelby and Vällingby in Stockholm, Sweden. Two common unsupervised learning methods were used for this, K-means clustering and hierarchical agglomerative clustering (HAC), the performance of which was analysed with different input data sets and parameters. K-means and HAC were unfortunately difficult to compare and there were also some difficulties in finding a suitable number of clusters K with the used input data. This issue was resolved by evaluating the clustering outcome with custom loss function MSE-tot that compared created clusters with subsequent assignment of new data. The loss function MSE-tot indicates that K-means is more suitable than HAC in this particular clustering setup. To investigate how the obtained clusters could be used in practice, two K-means clustering models were also used to perform some cluster-specific peak load predictions. These predictions were done using unitless load profiles created from the mean properties of each cluster and dimensioned using load specific parameters. The developed models had a mean relative error of approximately 8-19 % per load, depending on the prediction method and which of the two clustering models that was used. This result is quite promising, especially since deviations above 20 % were not uncommon in previous work. The models gave poor predictions for some clusters, however, which indicates that the models may not be suitable to use on all kinds of load data in its current form. One suggestion for how to further improve the predictions is to add more explanatory variables, for example the temperature dependence. The result of the developed models were also compared to the conventionally used Velander's formula, which makes predictions based on the loads' facility-type and annual electricity consumption. Velander's formula generally performed worse than the developed methods, only reaching a mean relative error of 40-43 % per load. One likely reason for this is that the used database had poor facility label quality, which is essential for obtaining correct constants in Velander's formula.

It is time to phase out fossil fuels and invest our efforts in green energy production through a major restructuring of the energy system. At the same time, more people are acquiring electric vehicles (EVs), thus creating a higher demand of electricity, and solar panels, allowing the consumer to also be a micro-producer. In order to systematically perform these changes, it is important to gain a better knowledge of the current customers as well as be able to make more accurate predictions about their future consumption. Vattenfall Eldistribution (VE) is one of several operators of the electric grid and, as of this day, still produces effect forecasts based on static estimations using the Velander formula. This has been a successful method in the past, however, with the current rate of change and the complexity in the consumption behaviour, it has become more difficult to estimate the aggregated load on the grid. It is also unattainable to cover the future demands by only expanding the grid. This creates the need for optimising the current grid, making more dynamic effect forecast and creating a smart grid. Our purpose is to help VE develop typical load profiles (TLPs), a more dynamic way to estimate peak loads, for private customers in the Uppsala region. VE provided us with time series data regarding the customers' consumption, as well as, attribute data describing the fuse size, heating system, contract type, etc., of these customers. A third dataset was also acquired through the Swedish Transport Agency regarding EV owners. These datasets allowed us to implement the three different parts of this project. The first part involved the creation of Attribute based TLPs with the help of the different attributes found in the VE's database. The goal for this part was to investigate the impact of specific attributes on the TLPs. The second part concerned the development of Behaviour based TLPs by implementing clustering algorithms that groups the customers based on behaviour alone. Thereafter, the distribution of attributes in the different groups was examined, in order to evaluate if there is a connection between the attributes and the consumption patterns identified. The third part studied the effect of EVs on the consumption behaviour. For this part, we implemented both attribute and behaviour based TLPs. The results of the Attribute based TLPs part concluded that fuse size has minimal impact on the TLPs whereas heating system entails a larger variation. In the second part of the project, Behaviour based TLPs, TLPs were successfully created with the help of clustering algorithms. However, no clear linkage between the consumption patterns and the attributes could be determined due to an evident overlap in the attributes between the created clusters. The final part of this project, EV owner based TLPs, verified the hypothesis that EV owners most likely charge their vehicles during the evening and night and established a clear visual increase in the consumption pattern in relation to non EV owners. An overall uncertainty that affects the results of all parts of this project is the accuracy of VE's data attributes and in order to confirm the conclusions of this thesis the degree of accuracy of the attributes should be determined.

The electric power systems are currently being transformed through the integration of intermittent renewable energy resources and new types of electric loads. These developments run the risk of increasing mismatches between electricity supply and demand, and may cause non-favorable utilization rates of some power system components. Using Demand Response (DR) from flexible loads in the building stock is a promising solution to overcome these challenges for electricity market actors. However, as DR is not used at a large scale today, there are validity concerns regarding its cost-benefit and reliability when compared to traditional investment options in the power sector, e.g. network refurbishment. To analyze the potential in DR solutions, bottom-up simulation models which capture consumption processes in buildings is an alternative. These models must be simple enough to allow aggregations of buildings to be instantiated and at the same time intricate enough to include variations in individual behaviors of end-users. This is done so the electricity market actor can analyze how large volumes of flexibility acts in various market and power system operation contexts, but also can appreciate how individual end-users are affected by DR actions in terms of cost and comfort. The contribution of this thesis is bottom-up simulation models for generating load profiles in detached houses and office buildings. The models connect end-user behavior with the usage of appliances and hot water loads through non-homogenous Markov chains, along with physical modeling of the indoor environment and consumption of heating and cooling loads through lumped capacitance models. The modeling is based on a simplified approach where openly available data and statistics are used, i.e. data that is subject to privacy limitations, such as smart meter measurements are excluded. The models have been validated using real load data from detached houses and office buildings, related models in literature, along with energy-use statistics from national databases. The validation shows that the modeling approach is sound and can provide reasonably accurate load profiles as the error results are in alignment with related models from other research groups. This thesis is a composite thesis of five papers. Paper 1 presents a bottom-up simulation model to generate load profiles from space heating, hot water and appliances in detached houses. Paper 2 presents a data analytic framework for analyzing electricity-use from heating ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) loads and appliance loads in an office building. Paper 3 presents a non-homogeneous Markov chain model to simulate representative occupancy profiles in single office rooms. Paper 4 utilizes the results in paper 2 and 3 to describe a bottom-up simulation model that generates load profiles in office buildings including HVAC loads and appliances. Paper 5 uses the model in paper 1 to analyze the technical feasibility of using DR to solve congestion problems in a distribution grid. / Integrering av förnybara energikällor och nya typer av laster i de elektriska energisystemen är möjliga svar till klimatförändringar och uttömning av ändliga naturresurser. Denna integration kan dock öka obalanserna mellan utbud och efterfrågan av elektricitet, och orsaka en ogynnsam utnyttjandegrad av vissa kraftsystemkomponenter. Att använda efterfrågeflexibilitet (Demand Response) i byggnadsbeståndet är en möjlig lösning till dessa problem för olika elmarknadsaktörer. Men eftersom efterfrågeflexibilitet inte används i stor skala idag finns det obesvarade frågor gällande lösningens kostnadsnytta och tillförlitlighet jämfört med traditionella investeringsalternativ i kraftsektorn. För att analysera efterfrågeflexibilitetslösningar är botten-upp-simuleringsmodeller som fångar elförbrukningsprocesser i byggnaderna ett alternativ. Dessa modeller måste vara enkla nog för att kunna representera aggregeringar av många byggnader men samtidigt tillräckligt komplicerade för att kunna inkludera unika slutanvändarbeteenden. Detta är nödvändigt när elmarknadsaktören vill analysera hur stora volymer efterfrågeflexibilitet påverkar elmarknaden och kraftsystemen, men samtidigt förstå hur styrningen inverkar på den enskilda slutanvändaren.  Bidraget från denna avhandling är botten-upp-simuleringsmodeller för generering av elförbrukningsprofiler i småhus och kontorsbyggnader. Modellerna kopplar slutanvändarbeteende med elförbrukning från apparater och varmvattenanvändning tillsammans med fysikaliska modeller av värmedynamiken i byggnaderna. Modellerna är byggda på en förenklad approach som använder öppen data och statistisk, där data som har integritetsproblem har exkluderats. Simuleringsresultat har validerats mot elförbrukningsdata från småhus och kontorsbyggnader,  relaterade modeller från andra forskargrupper samt energistatistik från nationella databaser. Valideringen visar att modellerna kan generera elförbrukningsprofiler med rimlig noggrannhet. Denna avhandling är en sammanläggningsavhandling bestående av fem artiklar. Artikel 1 presenterar botten-upp-simuleringsmodellen för genereringen av elförbrukningsprofiler från uppvärmning, varmvatten och apparater i småhus. Artikel 2 presenterar ett dataanalytiskt ramverk för analys av elanvändningen från uppvärmning, ventilation, och luftkonditioneringslaster (HVAC) och apparatlaster i en kontorsbyggnad. Artikel 3 presenterar en icke-homogen Markovkedjemodell för simulering av representativa närvaroprofiler i enskilda kontorsrum. Artikel  4 använder resultaten i artiklarna  2 och 3 för att beskriva en botten-upp-simuleringsmodell för generering av elförbrukningsprofiler från HVAC-laster och apparater i kontorsbyggnader. Artikel  5 använder modellen i artikel 1 för att analysera den tekniska möjligheten att använda efterfrågeflexibilitet för att lösa överbelastningsproblem i ett eldistributionsnät. / <p>QC 20160329</p>