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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

Optimal Decisions in the Equity Index Derivatives Markets Using Option Implied Information

Barkhagen, Mathias January 2015 (has links)
This dissertation is centered around two comprehensive themes: the extraction of information embedded in equity index option prices, and how to use this information in order to be able to make optimal decisions in the equity index option markets. These problems are important for decision makers in the equity index options markets, since they are continuously faced with making decisions under uncertainty given observed market prices. The methods developed in this dissertation provide robust tools that can be used by practitioners in order to improve the quality of the decisions that they make. In order to be able to extract information embedded in option prices, the dissertation develops two different methods for estimation of stable option implied surfaces which are consistent with observed market prices. This is a difficult and ill-posed inverse problem which is complicated by the fact that observed option prices contain a large amount of noise stemming from market micro structure effects. Producing estimated surfaces that are stable over time is important since otherwise risk measurement of derivatives portfolios, pricing of exotic options and calculation of hedge parameters will be prone to include significant errors. The first method that we develop leads to an optimization problem which is formulated as a convex quadratic program with linear constraints which can be solved very efficiently. The second estimation method that we develop in the dissertation makes it possible to produce local volatility surfaces of high quality, which are consistent with market prices and stable over time. The high quality of the surfaces estimated with the second method is the crucial input to the research which has resulted in the last three papers of the dissertation. The stability of the estimated local volatility surfaces makes it possible to build a realistic dynamic model for the equity index derivatives market. This model forms the basis for the stochastic programming (SP) model for option hedging that we develop in the dissertation. We show that the SP model, which uses generated scenarios for the squared local volatility surface as input,  outperforms the traditional hedging methods that are described in the literature. Apart from having an accurate view of the variance of relevant risk factors, it is when building a dynamic model also important to have a good estimate of the expected values, and thereby risk premia, of those factors. We use a result from recently published research which lets us recover the real-world density from only a cross-section of observed option prices via a local volatility model. The recovered real-world densities are then used in order to identify and estimate liquidity premia that are embedded in option prices. We also use the recovered real-world densities in order to test how well the option market predicts the realized statistical characteristics of the underlying index. We compare the results with the performance of commonly used models for the underlying index. The results show that option prices contain a premium in the tails of the distribution. By removing the estimated premia from the tails, the resulting density predicts future realizations of the underlying index very well.
2

Pricing of American options with discrete dividends using a PDE and a volatility surface while calculating derivatives with automatic differentiation

Hjelmberg, David, Lagerström, Björn January 2014 (has links)
In this master thesis we have examined the possibility of pricing multiple American options, on an underlying asset with discrete dividends, with a finite difference method. We have found a good and stable way to price one American option by solving the BSM PDE backwards, while also calculating the Greeks of the option with automatic differentiation. The list of Greeks for an option is quite extensive since we have been using a local volatility surface. We have also tried to find a way to price several American options simultaneously by solving a forward PDE. Unfortunately, we haven't found any previous work that we could use with our local volatility surface, while still keeping down the computational time. The closest we got was to calculate the value of a compound option in a forward mode, but in order to use this to value an American option, we needed to go through an iterative process which calculated a forward or backward European PDE in every step.
3

Thesis - Optimizing Smooth Local Volatility Surfaces with Power Utility Functions

Sällberg, Gustav, Söderbäck, Pontus January 2015 (has links)
The master thesis is focused on how a local volatility surfaces can be extracted by optimization with respectto smoothness and price error. The pricing is based on utility based pricing, and developed to be set in arisk neutral pricing setting. The pricing is done in a discrete multinomial recombining tree, where the timeand price increments optionally can be equidistant. An interpolation algorithm is used if the option that shallbe priced is not matched in the tree discretization. Power utility functions are utilized, where the log-utilitypreference is especially studied, which coincides with the (Kelly) portfolio that systematically outperforms anyother portfolio. A fine resolution of the discretization is generally a property that is sought after, thus a seriesof derivations for the implementation are done to restrict the computational encumbrance and thus allow finer discretization. The thesis is mainly focused on the derivation of the method rather than finding optimal parameters thatgenerate the local volatility surfaces. The method has shown that smooth surfaces can be extracted, whichconsider market prices. However, due to lacking available interest and dividend data, the pricing error increasessymmetrically for longer option maturities. However, the method shows exponential convergence and robustnessto different initial (flat) volatilities for the optimization initiation. Given an optimal smooth local volatility surface, an arbitrary payoff function can then be used to price thecorresponding option, which could be path-dependent, such as barrier options. However, only vanilla optionswill be considered in this thesis. Finally, we find that the developed

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