Flow speed describes general traffic operation conditions on a segment of roadway. It is also used to diagnose special conditions such as congestion and incidents. Accurate speed estimation plays a critical role in traffic management or traveler information systems. Data from loop detectors have been primary sources for traffic information, and single loop are the predominant loop detector type in many places. However, single loop detectors do not produce speed output. Therefore, speed estimation using single loop outputs has been an important issue for decades. This dissertation research presents two methodologies for speed estimation using single loop outputs. Based on findings from past studies and examinations in this research, it is verified that speed estimation is a nonlinear system under various traffic conditions. Thus, a methodology of using Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) is first proposed for such a system. The UKF is a parametric filtering technique that is suitable for nonlinear problems. Through an Unscented Transformation (UT), the UKF is able to capture the posterior mean and covariance of a Gaussian random variable accurately for a nonlinear system without linearization. This research further shows that speed estimation is a nonlinear non-Gaussian system. However, Kalman filters including the UKF are established based on the Gaussian assumption. Thus, another nonlinear filtering technique for non-Gaussian systems, the Particle Filter (PF), is introduced. By combining the strengths of both the PF and the UKF, the second speed estimation methodology - Unscented Particle Filter (UPF) is proposed for speed estimation. The use of the UPF avoids the limitations of the UKF and the PF. Detector data are collected from multiple freeway locations and the microscopic traffic simulation program CORSIM. The developed methods are applied to the collected data for speed estimation. The results show that both proposed methods have high accuracies of speed estimation. Between the UKF and the UPF, the UPF has better performance but has higher computation cost. The improvement of speed estimation will benefit real-time traffic operations by improving the performance of applications such as travel time estimation using a series of single loops in the network, incident detection, and large truck volume estimation. Therefore, the work enables traffic analysts to use single loop outputs in a more cost-effective way.

Flow speed describes general traffic operation conditions on a segment of roadway. It is also used to diagnose special conditions such as congestion and incidents. Accurate speed estimation plays a critical role in traffic management or traveler information systems. Data from loop detectors have been primary sources for traffic information, and single loop are the predominant loop detector type in many places. However, single loop detectors do not produce speed output. Therefore, speed estimation using single loop outputs has been an important issue for decades. This dissertation research presents two methodologies for speed estimation using single loop outputs. Based on findings from past studies and examinations in this research, it is verified that speed estimation is a nonlinear system under various traffic conditions. Thus, a methodology of using Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) is first proposed for such a system. The UKF is a parametric filtering technique that is suitable for nonlinear problems. Through an Unscented Transformation (UT), the UKF is able to capture the posterior mean and covariance of a Gaussian random variable accurately for a nonlinear system without linearization. This research further shows that speed estimation is a nonlinear non-Gaussian system. However, Kalman filters including the UKF are established based on the Gaussian assumption. Thus, another nonlinear filtering technique for non-Gaussian systems, the Particle Filter (PF), is introduced. By combining the strengths of both the PF and the UKF, the second speed estimation methodology—Unscented Particle Filter (UPF) is proposed for speed estimation. The use of the UPF avoids the limitations of the UKF and the PF. Detector data are collected from multiple freeway locations and the microscopic traffic simulation program CORSIM. The developed methods are applied to the collected data for speed estimation. The results show that both proposed methods have high accuracies of speed estimation. Between the UKF and the UPF, the UPF has better performance but has higher computation cost. The improvement of speed estimation will benefit real-time traffic operations by improving the performance of applications such as travel time estimation using a series of single loops in the network, incident detection, and large truck volume estimation. Therefore, the work enables traffic analysts to use single loop outputs in a more cost-effective way.

Flow speed describes general traffic operation conditions on a segment of roadway. It is also used to diagnose special conditions such as congestion and incidents. Accurate speed estimation plays a critical role in traffic management or traveler information systems. Data from loop detectors have been primary sources for traffic information, and single loop are the predominant loop detector type in many places. However, single loop detectors do not produce speed output. Therefore, speed estimation using single loop outputs has been an important issue for decades. This dissertation research presents two methodologies for speed estimation using single loop outputs. Based on findings from past studies and examinations in this research, it is verified that speed estimation is a nonlinear system under various traffic conditions. Thus, a methodology of using Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) is first proposed for such a system. The UKF is a parametric filtering technique that is suitable for nonlinear problems. Through an Unscented Transformation (UT), the UKF is able to capture the posterior mean and covariance of a Gaussian random variable accurately for a nonlinear system without linearization. This research further shows that speed estimation is a nonlinear non-Gaussian system. However, Kalman filters including the UKF are established based on the Gaussian assumption. Thus, another nonlinear filtering technique for non-Gaussian systems, the Particle Filter (PF), is introduced. By combining the strengths of both the PF and the UKF, the second speed estimation methodology—Unscented Particle Filter (UPF) is proposed for speed estimation. The use of the UPF avoids the limitations of the UKF and the PF. Detector data are collected from multiple freeway locations and the microscopic traffic simulation program CORSIM. The developed methods are applied to the collected data for speed estimation. The results show that both proposed methods have high accuracies of speed estimation. Between the UKF and the UPF, the UPF has better performance but has higher computation cost. The improvement of speed estimation will benefit real-time traffic operations by improving the performance of applications such as travel time estimation using a series of single loops in the network, incident detection, and large truck volume estimation. Therefore, the work enables traffic analysts to use single loop outputs in a more cost-effective way.

Flow speed describes general traffic operation conditions on a segment of roadway. It is also used to diagnose special conditions such as congestion and incidents. Accurate speed estimation plays a critical role in traffic management or traveler information systems. Data from loop detectors have been primary sources for traffic information, and single loop are the predominant loop detector type in many places. However, single loop detectors do not produce speed output. Therefore, speed estimation using single loop outputs has been an important issue for decades. This dissertation research presents two methodologies for speed estimation using single loop outputs. Based on findings from past studies and examinations in this research, it is verified that speed estimation is a nonlinear system under various traffic conditions. Thus, a methodology of using Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) is first proposed for such a system. The UKF is a parametric filtering technique that is suitable for nonlinear problems. Through an Unscented Transformation (UT), the UKF is able to capture the posterior mean and covariance of a Gaussian random variable accurately for a nonlinear system without linearization. This research further shows that speed estimation is a nonlinear non-Gaussian system. However, Kalman filters including the UKF are established based on the Gaussian assumption. Thus, another nonlinear filtering technique for non-Gaussian systems, the Particle Filter (PF), is introduced. By combining the strengths of both the PF and the UKF, the second speed estimation methodology - Unscented Particle Filter (UPF) is proposed for speed estimation. The use of the UPF avoids the limitations of the UKF and the PF. Detector data are collected from multiple freeway locations and the microscopic traffic simulation program CORSIM. The developed methods are applied to the collected data for speed estimation. The results show that both proposed methods have high accuracies of speed estimation. Between the UKF and the UPF, the UPF has better performance but has higher computation cost. The improvement of speed estimation will benefit real-time traffic operations by improving the performance of applications such as travel time estimation using a series of single loops in the network, incident detection, and large truck volume estimation. Therefore, the work enables traffic analysts to use single loop outputs in a more cost-effective way.

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The research presented in this thesis attempts to investigate the impact of detector failure frequency and failure duration on the accuracy of loop detector speed, flow, and density measurements using a Monte Carlo simulation approach. The inputs to the model are the frequency of failures and failure duration. Several regression models were developed to relate loop detector accuracy to detector failure data. The results showed that the models were consistent and similar for the same location with an R square that ranged between 86% and 94% for all models and in comparing two locations, the differences between the regression models were minor except for the flow model errors, the location had the same trend but the magnitude of the flow RMSE increased by 7.5 to 15%. The second part of the research effort attempts to quantify the impact of inclement weather (precipitation and visibility) on traffic stream free-flow speeds along freeway sections. The analysis is conducted using weather (precipitation and visibility) and loop detector data (speed) obtained from Baltimore, Minneapolis/St. Paul, and Seattle, US. The results demonstrate that visibility alone has a minimum impact on free-flow speed with reductions in the range of 1 to 3%. These reductions only appear as the visibility level falls below 1.2 km. The study demonstrates that the impact of snow is more significant than that of rain for similar intensity levels. Reductions caused by rain are in the neighborhood of 2 to 5% depending on the precipitation intensity while reductions caused by snow are in the neighborhood of 6 to 20%. With regards to freezing rain, higher reductions in free-flow speed were observed when compared to rain and snow. Specifically, the free-flow speed was reduced by 14% at the onset of freezing rain precipitation with a maximum decrease of 27% at freezing rain intensity of about 0.53 cm/h for Baltimore and as the case of Seattle the reduction was found to be constant with 31%. Finally, the paper derives free-flow speed reduction factors that vary as a function of the precipitation type and intensity level. These reduction factors can be incorporated within the Highway Capacity Manual's procedures. / Master of Science

There is an increasing demand for application of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) in order to make highways safer and sustainable. Collecting and analyzing traffic stream data are the most important parameters in transportation engineering in enhancing our understanding of traffic congestion and mobility. Classification of the vehicles using traffic data is one of the most essential parameters for traffic management. Of particular interest are heavy vehicles which impact traffic mobility due to their lack of maneuverability and slower speeds. The impact of heavy vehicles on the traffic stream results in congestion and reduction of road efficiency. In this paper, length-based vehicle count and speed data were analyzed and interpreted using one week's data from Interstate 5 (I-5) in the Portland, Oregon (OR) region of the United States (US). I-5 was chosen due to its prominent role in promoting North-South freight movement between Canada and Mexico and its vicinity to the Port of Portland. The objective of this analysis was to find better visualization techniques for the length-based traffic count and speed data. In total, 13,901,793 out of 56,146,138 20-second records were analyzed. The vehicles were classified into two categories. Those that were 20 feet or less were considered as passenger vehicles and those above 20 feet were considered as heavy vehicles. The data consisted of approximately 25% heavy vehicles. Results showed the merit of applying more disaggregate data (5-min polar, and radar plots) for better visualization as against hourly, and 15-min plots in order to capture sudden changes in average speed, heavy vehicle volume, and heavy vehicle percentage.

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Traffic data prediction is a critical aspect of Advanced Traffic Management System (ATMS). The utility of the traffic data is in providing information on the evolution of traffic process that can be passed on to the various users (commuters, Regional Traffic Management Centers (RTMCs), Department of Transportation (DoT), ... etc) for user-specific objectives. This information can be extracted from the data collected by various traffic sensors. Loop detectors collect traffic data in the form of flow, occupancy, and speed throughout the nation. Freeway traffic data from I-4 loop detectors has been collected and stored in a data warehouse called the Central Florida Data Warehouse (CFDW[trademark symbol]) by the University of Central Florida for the periods between 1993-1994 and 2000 - 2003. This data is raw, in the form of time stamped 30-second aggregated data collected from about 69 stations over a 36 mile stretch on I-4 from Lake Mary in the east to Disney-World in the west. This data has to be processed to extract information that can be disseminated to various users. Usually, most statistical procedures assume that each individual data point in the sample is independent of other data points. This is not true to traffic data as they are correlated across space and time. Therefore, the concept of time sequence and the layout of data collection devices in space, introduces autocorrelations in a single variable and cross correlations across multiple variables. Significant autocorrelations prove that past values of a variable can be used to predict future values of the same variable. Furthermore, significant cross-correlations between variables prove that past values of one variable can be used to predict future values of another variable. The traditional techniques in traffic prediction use univariate time series models that account for autocorrelations but not cross-correlations. These models have neglected the cross correlations between variables that are present in freeway traffic data, due to the way the data are collected. There is a need for statistical techniques that incorporate the effect of these multivariate cross-correlations to predict future values of traffic data. The emphasis in this dissertation is on the multivariate prediction of traffic variables. Unlike traditional statistical techniques that have relied on univariate models, this dissertation explored the cross-correlation between multivariate traffic variables and variables collected across adjoining spatial locations (such as loop detector stations). The analysis in this dissertation proved that there were significant cross correlations among different traffic variables collected across very close locations at different time scales. The nature of cross-correlations showed that there was feedback among the variables, and therefore past values can be used to predict future values. Multivariate time series analysis is appropriate for modeling the effect of different variables on each other. In the past, upstream data has been accounted for in time series analysis. However, these did not account for feedback effects. Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) models are more appropriate for such data. Although VAR models have been applied to forecast economic time series models, they have not been used to model freeway data. Vector Auto Regressive models were estimated for speeds and volumes at a sample of two locations, using 5-minute data. Different specifications were fit--estimation of speeds from surrounding speeds; estimation of volumes from surrounding volumes; estimation of speeds from volumes and occupancies from the same location; estimation of speeds from volumes from surrounding locations (and vice versa). These specifications were compared to univariate models for the respective variables at three levels of data aggregation (5-minutes, 10 minutes, and 15 minutes) in this dissertation. For data aggregation levels of [less than]15 minutes, the VAR models outperform the univariate models. At data aggregation level of 15 minutes, VAR models did not outperform univariate models. Since VAR models were used for all traffic variables reported by the loop detectors, this made the application of VAR a true multivariate procedure for dynamic prediction of the multivariate traffic variables--flow, speed and occupancy. Also, VAR models are generally deemed more complex than univariate models due to the estimation of multiple covariance matrices. However, a VAR model for k variables must be compared to k univariate models and VAR models compare well with AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. The added complexity helps model the effect of upstream and downstream variables on the future values of the response variable. This could be useful for ATMS situations, where the effect of traffic redistribution and redirection is not known beforehand with prediction models. The VAR models were tested against more traditional models and their performances were compared against each other under different traffic conditions. These models significantly enhance the understanding of the freeway traffic processes and phenomena as well as identifying potential knowledge relating to traffic prediction. Further refinements in the models can result in better improvements for forecasts under multiple conditions.