In this project dynamic thermal rating for transformers and its effect on transformer reliability are investigated. A literature review is done on different thermal models used for this purpose and at the end differential equations model from IEC 60076-7 and bottom oil model from IEEE C57.91-1995 standard are selected to calculate hot spot temperature. A wind farm connected transformer is selected to implement the models. This transformer belongs to Ellevio AB and manufactured by ABB AB. Load data are gathered for every 5 minutes during 2016. Loss of life of transformer is calculated and it is concluded that by considering this factor, the transformer is overdesigned. The optimum size of transformer by utilizing dynamic rating is selected which results in a reduction in investment cost. This method can be used to select the appropriate size oft ransformer by taking advantages of ambient temperature variations and overload the transformer beyond nameplate ratings without exceeding transformer temperature limitations. Moreover, the risk of overloading the transformer at any time during 2016 is calculated. The risk of overloading is quantified as loss of life of transformer. It is shown that this risk is a function of ambient temperature and the duration of overloading. Finally, an economic analysis is done to demonstrate economic benefit of expanding wind farm by overloading the existing transformer by reducing the transformer life expectancy while keeping it in a safe limit. / I detta projekt undersoks dynamisk varmeklassicering for transformatorer ochdess eekt pa transformatorns tillforlitlighet. En litteraturoversikt gors pa olikatermiska modeller som anvands for detta andamal och i slutet av dierentialekvationsmodellenfran IEC 60076-7 och bottenoljemodellen fran IEEE C57.91-1995 standard valjes for att berakna varmpunktstemperatur. En transformatormed vindkraftpark valjs for att genomfora modellerna. Denna transformatortillhor Ellevio AB och tillverkas av ABB AB. Lastdata samlas in for var 5: eminut under 2016. Transformatorns livslangd beraknas och det slutsatsen atttransformatorn ar overdesignad med hansyn till denna faktor. Den optimalastorleken pa transformatorn genom att anvanda dynamisk rating valjs vilket resulterari en minskning av investeringskostnaden. Denna metod kan anvandasfor att valja lamplig storlek for transformatorn genom att dra fordel av omgivandetemperaturvariationer och overbelasta transformatorn bortom markskyltarutan att overskrida transformatortemperaturbegransningar. Dessutomberaknas risken for overbelastning av transformatorn nar som helst under 2016.Risken for overbelastning kvantieras som forlust av livslangd for transformatorn.Det visas att denna risk ar en funktion av omgivande temperatur ochvaraktigheten av overbelastning. Slutligen gors en ekonomisk analys for attvisa ekonomisk nytta av att expandera vindkraftparken genom att overbelastaden bentliga transformatorn genom att minska transformatorens livslangd samtidigtsom den halls i en saker grans.

Natural hazards cause enormous amounts of damage worldwide every year. Since 1994 more than 1.35 billion people have lost their lives and more than 116 million homes have been damaged. Understanding of disaster risk implies knowledge about vulnerability, capacity, exposure of persons and assets, hazard characteristics and the environment. Quantitative damage assessments are a fundamental part of disaster risk management. There are, however, substantial challenges when quantifying damage which depends on the diversity of hazards and the fact that one hazardous event can negatively impact a society in multiple ways. The overall aim of the thesis is to analyze the relationship between climate-related natural hazards and subsequent damage for the purpose of improving the prerequisite for quantitative risk assessments in the future. The thesis concentrates on two specific types of consequences due to two types of hazards, 1) damage to buildings caused by lake floods, and 2) loss of lives caused by quick clay landslides.  Several causal relationships were established between risk factors and the extent of damages. Lake water levels increased the probability of structural building damage. Private damage reducing measures decreased the probability of structural building damage. Extent of damage decreased with distance to waterfront but increased with longer flood duration while prewar houses suffered lower flood damage compared to others. Concerning landslides, the number of fatalities increased when the number of humans in the exposed population increased. The main challenges to further damage estimation are data scarcity, insufficient detail level and the fact that the data are rarely systematically collected for scientific purposes. More efforts are needed to create structured, homogeneous and detailed damage databases with corresponding risk factors in order to further develop quantitative damage assessment of natural hazards in a Nordic perspective. / Naturolyckor orsakar enorma mängder skador över hela världen varje år. Under åren 1994-2013 förlorade mer än 1,35 miljoner människor sina liv och mer än 116 miljoner hem skadades. Förståelse av risk för naturolyckor innebär kunskap om sårbarhet, kapacitet, exponering av personer och tillgångar, hot och miljö. Kvantitativa skadebedömningar, som är en viktig del av riskbedömningar, omfattas av stora utmaningar som grundar sig i hotens mångfaldighet och det faktum att en naturolycka kan påverka ett samhälle negativt på många olika sätt. Det övergripande syftet med avhandlingen är att analysera förhållandet mellan naturkatastrofer och potentiellt påföljande skador i syfte att förbättra förutsättningarna för kvantitativa riskbedömningar i framtiden. Avhandlingen koncentrerar sig på två typer av naturolyckor med specifika konsekvenser, 1) skador på byggnader till följd av sjö-översvämningar, och 2) förlust av liv orsakat av lerskred. Flera orsakssamband mellan riskfaktorer och omfattning av skador har identifierats. Sjöarnas vattennivåer ökade sannolikheten att drabbas av strukturell byggnadsskada, samtidigt som privat initierade åtgärder minskande sannolikheten.. När avstånd mellan sjö och byggnad ökade minskade omfattningen av översvämningsskador, men ökade ju längre sjööversvämningen varade. Hus byggda före 1940 fick mindre skador jämfört med andra hus. Andelen dödsfall i samband med skred i kvicklera ökade när antal människor i den exponerade befolkningen ökade. Den största utmaningen i att förbättra dagens kvantitativa skadebedömningar är den rådande databristen vad gäller förluster och tillhörande riskfaktorer. Denna brist beror på otillgänglig skadedata, bristande detaljnivå på skadedata och tillhörande risk faktorer, och att uppgifterna sällan samlas systematiskt i syfte att studera kausalitet. / The overall aim of the thesis is to analyze the relationship between climate-related natural hazards and subsequent damage for the purpose of improving the prerequisite for quantitative risk assessments in the future. The thesis concentrates on two specific types of hazards with specific types of consequences, 1) damage to buildings caused by lake floods, and 2) loss of lives caused by quick clay landslides.  Several causal relationships were established between risk factors and the extent of damages. Lake water levels increased the probability of structural building damage. Private damage reducing measures decreased the probability of structural building damage. Extent of damage decreased with distance to waterfront but increased with longer flood duration while prewar houses suffered lower flood damage compared to others. Concerning landslides, the number of fatalities increased when the number of humans in the exposed population increased. The main challenges to further damage estimation are data scarcity, insufficient detail level and the fact that the data are rarely systematically collected for scientific purposes.

Majority of electricity networks have growing number of ageing elements. Critical network components, such as ageing underground cables, are very expensive to install and disruptive to replace. On the other hand, global climate changes have made connection of new low carbon technologies (LCT) into the grids increasingly necessary. These factors are contributing to the increasing complexity of the planning and management of power systems. Numerous techniques published on this subject tend to ignore the impact of LCT integration and the anchoring ꞌSmartꞌ solutions on ageing network assets, such as underground cables and transformers. This thesis presents the development procedures of an ageing underground cable reliability model (IEC-Arrhenius-Weibull model) and cable ranking models for replacement based on system wide effects and thermal loss-of-life metrics. In addition, a new concept of LCT integration and distribution network management was proposed using two optimization models. The first optimizes connection of new wind sources by minimizing the connection cost and the cost of cable thermal loss-of-lives in the planning period. In the second stage, the network is optimally reconfigured in such a way to minimize thermal-loss-of-life of ageing cable. Both optimization models are formulated as mixed integer non-linear programming (MINLP) problems applicable to radially operated medium voltage networks. To quantify the reliability benefits of the proposed approach, Sequential Monte Carlo Simulation (SMCS) procedure was formulated. Some of the main features of the SMCS procedure are the IEC-Arrhenius-Weibull model for ageing cable, optimal network reconfiguration, wind generation modelling using ARMA models and real time thermal ratings. The final outputs are reliability metrics, cable ranking lists for replacement, savings due to 'non-spend' cable thermal lives, etc. These studies have proven to be important in formulating an effective strategy for extending the lives of network cables, managing overall network reliability and planning cables replacement in power distribution networks.

Introduction: The long-term success of non-surgical weight loss treatment in adults with obesity is limite by substantial relapse, and only a few evidence-based weight loss maintenance treatments exist. This clinical trial investigates the feasibility and efficacy of a social facilitation maintenance programme for weight loss maintenance, tailored to meet the needs of obese adults who have undergone a lifestyle weight loss intervention. Methods and analysis: In a single-centre, open feasibility trial, 72 adults currently or previously obese or overweight who have undergone a lifestyle weight loss intervention are centrally randomised to 4 months of social facilitation maintenance treatment or treatment as a usual control condition. In 16 outpatient group sessions, the social facilitation maintenance treatment, based on a socioecological model and on evidence supporting social facilitation as a key process in maintaining weight loss, focuses on promoting interpersonal relationships to build up a healthy lifestyle for long-term weight loss maintenance. Primary outcome is the amount of weight regain at 6-month follow-up, compared with pre-treatment weight, derived from measured body weight. Secondary outcomes address feasibility, including recruitment, attrition, assessment non-completion, compliance and patients’ programme evaluation; and in comparison with pre-weight loss maintenance, social and interpersonal functioning, eating behaviour and physical activity, psychological and physical symptoms, body composition and risk of comorbidity, and quality of life at post-treatment and follow-up assessments. Ethics and dissemination: The study was approved by the Ethical Committee at the University of Leipzig (165-13-15072013). The study results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications. Trial registration number: DRKS00005182

Distribution system operators face the challenge to connect users rapidly to the grid and the opportunity to reduce costs for new connections. A method to enhance network operation and planning is dynamic transformer rating (DTR), which considers load and temperature variations to increase the rating of the transformer while maintaining in safe operation. This project investigates DTR application to an existing population of transformers connected to a wind park and proposes a method for adding new turbines to the grid using installed transformers. Five transformer locations and nine units belonging to E.ON AB are used to find the potential of DTR for network expansion. A weather analysis reveals that simultaneous high wind speeds and high temperatures seldom occur. An aging estimation based on the IEC 60076-7 standard shows that the transformers for wind power applications are underused. Considering the transformer thermal model, a sensitivity analysis shows that the parameters that mostly affect the aging rate are the moisture content, the hot spot factor, and the top-oil temperature rise. The maximum load to assure aging below 50 years is calculated for each transformer for different maximum hot-spot temperature levels showing that increasing the maximum allowed temperature reduces curtailment and increases aging. A single node analysis depicts the optimal expansion of wind power from a generator perspective, and a network analysis introduces further restrictions to the network. As a result, the optimal increase factor is around 30 to 50 % and is larger for higher hot-spot temperature limits. Accurate weather measurements and transformer parameters are necessary to make a proper estimation of transformer aging to unlock transformer potential. To use fiber optic temperature sensors in new transformers and on-site temperature measurements can increase the rating of the transformer. A maximum allowed temperature of 110◦C is conservative and limits the potential of the transformer for wind power applications. Finally, society benefits from DTR in wind power applications because there is a more efficient use of resources and additional renewable energy can be introduced to the network. / Eldistributionsnätet står inför en utmaning att snabbt ansluta användare till nätet och en möjlighet att miska kostnaderna i nya ansultnigar. En metod för att förbättra nätverksdrift och planering är dynamisk lastbarhet hos transformatorer, eller dynamic transformer rating (DTR). Metoden beaktar belastings- och temperaturvariationer för att öka transformatorns lastbarhet samtidigt som den upprätthåller säker drift. Detta projekt undersöker tillämpningen av dynamisk lastbarhet till en befintling population av transformatorer kopplade till en vindkraftpark och föreslår en metod för att ansluta ytterligare turbiner till nätet med hjälp av befintliga transformatorer. Fem transformatorplatser och nio enheter som tillhör E.ON AB används för att undersöka potentialen för DTR inom tillämpningar för nätverksexpansion. En vänderanalysis avslöhar att både höga vindhastigheter och temperaturer sällan uppstår samtidigt. En uppskattning av åldrandet baserad på IEC 60076-7-standarden visar att transformatorer för vindkraftstillämpningar är underanvända. Med avseende på den termisk transformatormodellen visar en känslighetsanalys att parametrarna som påverkar minskning av livslängden mest är fuktinnehållet, hot spot-faktorn och ökning av top-olja-temperaturen. Den maximala belastningen för att säkerställa en åldring under 50 år beräknas för varje transformator, för olika värden på den maximala hotspottemperaturen. Detta visar att med ökning av den maximala tillåtna temperaturen minskar produktionsbortfall och ökar åldrandet. En-nods-analys visar den optimala expansionen av vindkraft från en producents perspektiv, och en nätverksanalys introducerar ytterligare begränsningar för nätverket. Detta resulterar i en optimal ökningsfaktor på cirka 30-50% och är större för högre värden på den maximala hotspottemperaturen. Noggranna vädermätningar och transformatorparametrar är nödvändiga för att göra en korrekt uppskattning av transformatorns åldrande. Att använda fiberoptiska temperatursensorer i nya transformatorer och platsspecifika temperaturmätningar kan öka transformatorns lastbarhet. En maximal tillåten temperatur på 110 ◦C är för konservativ och begränsar transformatorns potential för vindkraftstillämpningar. Samhället drar fördel av DTR i vindkraftstillämpningar eftersom det leder till en effektivare resursanvändning och att ytterligare förnybar energi kan introduceras i nätverket.

Submitted by Maria Aparecida (cidazen@gmail.com) on 2017-05-09T13:49:19Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Jéssica Cristina da Sousa Silva.pdf: 3803180 bytes, checksum: 09661347277c0b6b6dadfa09a5e05299 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-05-09T13:49:19Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Jéssica Cristina da Sousa Silva.pdf: 3803180 bytes, checksum: 09661347277c0b6b6dadfa09a5e05299 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-04-03 / FAPEMA / As a result of a contingency, severe overloads may occur in a power transformer. One of the greatest concerns of energy utilities is to find a way to operate this equipment that ensures its useful life is preserved. However, there is a sharp reduction in the useful life in proportion to the level of overload and this increases the risk of failure. This paper sets out a framework for decision-making in emergency operations for power transformers, that rely on interruption contracts as decision variables and which take into account the risk of accepting any level of violation of the transformer´s operating limits. The risk of failure is calculated by measuring the useful life of the transformer and the presence of dissolved gases. The useful life is estimated by means of the Arrhenius model of thermal damage , while incipient faults can be detected by Dissolved Gas Analysis (DGA). The risk of transformer failure is estimated by examining the data cited above, on the basis of information theory concepts. It is formulated as a multi-period optimization problem with linear objectives and nonlinear constraints and restricted to the risk of accepting transformer overloads. The results are validated by means of an adapted version of the IEEE14 system, which is shown to be effective as a tool for emergency decision-making in the case studies included here. / Como consequência de uma contingência, sobrecargas severas podem ocorrer em transformadores de potência. Uma das maiores preocupações das concessionárias de energia, é operar estes equipamentos de forma que a vida útil seja preservada. No entanto esta diminui drasticamente em proporção ao nível de sobrecarga aplicado além do aumento do risco de falha. Este trabalho apresenta uma estrutura para o auxílio na tomada de decissões de operação em emergência de transformadores de potência, utilizando como variáveis de decisão contratos de interrupção conjugados com a decisão de aceitar um nível de sobrecarga baseado no risco. São usados modelos térmicos de envelhecimento do transformador para cálculo de perda de vida. Para atualização da probabilidade do risco de falha, são utilizadas informações de Análise de Gases Dissolvidos (DGA) e da perda de vida útil do transformador combinadas através de conceitos de teoria da informação. Os resultados são validados usando uma versão adaptada do sistema IEEE 14, mostrado-se eficaz como ferramenta de tomada de decisões nos estudos de caso apresentados. Contratos de interrup¸c~ao, teoria da informa¸c~ao.

Submitted by Cláudia Bueno (claudiamoura18@gmail.com) on 2015-11-18T18:03:32Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Adriano Machado dos Santos - 2014.pdf: 9004500 bytes, checksum: 8843f32793f823e988a7913fedb9b4ca (MD5) license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com) on 2015-11-19T14:25:06Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Adriano Machado dos Santos - 2014.pdf: 9004500 bytes, checksum: 8843f32793f823e988a7913fedb9b4ca (MD5) license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-11-19T14:25:06Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Adriano Machado dos Santos - 2014.pdf: 9004500 bytes, checksum: 8843f32793f823e988a7913fedb9b4ca (MD5) license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-07-29 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / Electricity customers’ devices, connected to the secondary distribution network linked to distribution transformers belonging to the electrical energy distributor, modernize every year. These devices usually consist of components capable of processing energy and produce distortion at the load current. Thus these devices are typified as non-linear load and its effects influence the operation of the distribution transformers with implications for its lifetime. Therefore, this work presents the study of the influence of non-sinusoidal signals (distorted signals) in the lifetime of distribution transformers. In this sense equations are presented that allows to calculate transformers losses, their operating temperatures and estimate the percentage loss of life. To obtain results a computer program was developed in the numerical programming platform MATLAB based on the presented mathematical model. The developed program is supplied by data obtained from field as well as laboratory measurements. Results are also obtained by simulations. The focus of this study is the distribution system of the urban perimeter of the city Goiânia-GO. / Os aparelhos pertencentes aos consumidores de energia elétrica, ligados à rede de distribuição secundária conectados em transformadores de distribuição da distribuidora de energia elétrica, se modernizam a cada ano. Os referidos aparelhos normalmente são constituídos por componentes capazes de processar a energia e produzir distorção na corrente de alimentação. Deste modo estes aparelhos são tipificados como carga não linear e seus efeitos influenciam o funcionamento dos transformadores de distribuição com implicações no seu tempo de vida. Assim sendo, este trabalho apresenta estudo da influência de sinais não senoidais (sinais distorcidos) no tempo de vida destes transformadores. Neste sentido é apresentado equacionamento que permite calcular as perdas do transformador, suas temperaturas de operação e estimar a perda de vida percentual. Para a obtenção de resultados foi desenvolvido um programa computacional na plataforma de programação numérica MATLAB com base no modelo matemático apresentado. O programa desenvolvido é suprido por dados obtidos através de medições em campo e também de laboratório. Resultados são obtidos também por realização de simulações. O foco deste estudo é o sistema de distribuição do perímetro urbano da cidade de Goiânia-GO.

When analyzing the flood risk using multi-criteria analysis it is necessary to estimate

Plug-in Electric Vehicles (PEVs) are projected to become a viable means of transportation due to advances in technology and advocates for green and eco-friendly energy solutions. These vehicles are powered partially, or in some cases, solely by the energy stored in their battery packs. The large sizes of these battery packs require large amount of energy to charge, and as the demand for PEV increases, the increase in energy demand needed to recharge these PEV batteries could pose problems to the present electric distribution system. This study examines the potential impacts of PEV on a residential electric distribution system at various penetration levels. An existing residential distribution network is modeled up to each household service point and various sensitivity scenarios and stochastic patterns of PEV loads are simulated. Impact studies that include voltage drop, service transformers overload, energy loss, and transformer thermal loss-of-life expectancy are analyzed. Results from the study are reported and recommendations to mitigate the impacts are presented.

Due to the increase in electrical demand and renewable penetration, electrical utilities need to improve and optimize the grid infrastructure. Fundamental components in this grid infrastructure are transformers, which are designed conservatively on the base of a static rated power. However, load and weather change continuously and hence, transformers are not used in the most efficient way. For this reason a new technology has been developed: Dynamic transformer rating (DTR). By applying DTR, it is possible to load transformers above the nameplate rating without affecting their life time expectancy. This project goes one step further and uses DTR for the short term and long term wind farm planning. The optimal wind farm is designed by applying DTR to the power transformer of the farm. The optimization is carried out using a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model. In respect of the transformer thermal analysis, the linearized top oil model of IEEE Clause 7 is selected. The model is executed for 4 different types of power transformers: 63 MVA, 100 MVA, 200 MVA and 400 MVA. As result, it is obtained that the net present value for the investment and the capacity of the wind farm increase linearly with respect to the size of the transformer. Then, a sensitivity analysis is carried out by modifying the wind speed, the electricity price, the lifetime of the transformer and the selected weather data. From this sensitivity analysis, it is possible to conclude that wind resources and electricity price are key parameters for the feasibility of the wind farm. / På grund av ökningen av efterfrågan av elektricitet och förnybara energin, elförsörgingsföretag måste förbättras och elnätets infrastruktur måste optimeras. Grundläggande komponenter i elnätet är transformatorer, som är designade konservativt efter en statisk märkeffekt. Laster och vädret ändras dock kontinuerligt, detta betyder att transformatorer inte används på de mest effektiva sätten. Av denna anledning har en ny teknik utvecklats: Dynamisk lastbarhet hos transformatorer (DTR). Genom att applicera DTR, gör det möjligt att belasta en transformator högre än märkdata utan att påverka den förväntade livslängden. Detta projekt går ett steg längre och använder DTR för kort och lång sikts vindkraftparkplaneringar. Den optimala vindkraftparken är designad genom att använda DLT på krafttransformatorn för vindkraftsparken. Optimeringen utförst med hjälp av Mixed-Integer Linear programming (MILP) modell. Gällande transformatorns termiska analys, så valdes den linjäriserade toppoljemodellen av IEEE Clause 7. Modellen var utförd för fyra olika krafttransformatorer: 63 MVA, 100 MVA, 200 MVA och 400 MVA. Resultatet blev att nettonuvärdet för investeringen och kapaciteten av vindkraftsparken ökade linjärt med avseende på storleken på transformatorn. En känslighetsanalys var utförd genom att ändra vindhastigheten, elpriset, livstiden av transformatorn och de valda väderdata. Från känslighetsanalysen så var det möjligt att dra slutsatsen att vindresurser och elpriset är nyckelparametrar för vindkraftsparkens genomförbarhet.