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The aim of this thesis is to provide tools in order to simplify and extend the analysis of stock-flow consistent macroeconomic models. For models in continuous time, we will focus on stability and steady state solutions, considering constant exogenous parameters. For models in discrete time, we will derive systems with considerable reduction in complexity and size from rather big linear systems of equations set up by previous authors into much simpler systems of difference equations. These can then also be analyzed from a continuous perspective, if their limits are taken. We will also see how an alternative continuous layout of the models proposed by us, further reduces the number of dimensions with respect to their counterparts in discrete time, in some cases. / Thesis / Master of Science (MSc)

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The presented thesis has closely examined the discussion on policy assignments that are restricted on an open macroeconomic model; very little reference has focused on a closed macroeconomic model. As we know, Ramirez (1986) is the first person who has applied policy assignment to a closed macroeconomic model. But Chang and Lai have clearly proved that Ramirez's model is not appropriate for policy assignment, and a way to redeem the problem is to introduce policy instrument to aggregate supply side. Also, this thesis is going to focus on, instead of introduced the policy instrument to aggregate supply side, use system endogenous on aggregate supply function. Could this kind of correction redeem the flaws made by Ramirez? Hence, this thesis would apply the reality intertemporal substitution effect of labor to subsume an aggregate supply side, then discuss the relationship on policy assignment that is between policy instrument and policy target that would derive the conclusion as below: When a model does not include the intertemporal substitution effect of labor, it degrades to a Ramirez's model (1986) and cannot be used for policy assignment. On the other hand, a model including intertemporal substitution effect of labor remedies the flaws in Ramirez's model (1986) and can be used for appropriate policy assignment assuming that government spending is in complement with private spending.

Submitted by Renata Lopes (renatasil82@gmail.com) on 2017-04-07T14:24:37Z No. of bitstreams: 1 marcospaulonovaissilva.pdf: 613887 bytes, checksum: d7aacdc21415c7b1ea172bf36debcbf4 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2017-04-07T16:36:15Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 marcospaulonovaissilva.pdf: 613887 bytes, checksum: d7aacdc21415c7b1ea172bf36debcbf4 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-04-07T16:36:15Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 marcospaulonovaissilva.pdf: 613887 bytes, checksum: d7aacdc21415c7b1ea172bf36debcbf4 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-12-17 / CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / A questão ambiental, em especial as emissões de dióxido de carbono tem se tornado muito relevante para o campo de estudo da economia. O problema da crescente taxa mundial de emissão de dióxido de carbono é que culmina em maior concentração deste gás na atmosfera e este por sua vez causa um aumento na temperatura média do planeta. O aumento na temperatura do planeta gera uma série de desequilíbrios, dentre eles: alterações na pluviosidade, desertificação e degelo em determinadas regiões, impactos na produção agrícola, e na saúde humana. A dificuldade de encontrar uma solução para o aquecimento global se dá no mesmo passo da dificuldade de encontrar formas de sustentar o crescimento econômico sem aumentar o consumo de combustíveis, em especial fósseis. Logo há uma necessidade de se pensar a questão ambiental em conjunto com crescimento econômico. As perspectivas futuras para o Brasil indicam uma alta taxa de crescimento nas emissões, se comparado às taxas dos países pertencentes a OCDE (Organização para Cooperação e Desenvolvimento Econômico). Para previsão das emissões diretas de CO2 esta dissertação utiliza um modelo integrado de insumo-produto e macroeconômico. Ao utilizar um modelo integrado os choques induzidos no modelo de insumo-produto deixam de ser aleatórios (adhoc) e se tornam macro-fundamentados dando consistência macroeconômica ao modelo. Foram necessários os seguintes dados para construção do modelo: matrizes de insumoproduto de 1990 a 2005, emissões diretas de CO2 setoriais de 2005, previsão de taxa de crescimento da população brasileira e de consumo de energia renovável e não renovável. No que tange aos resultados setoriais pode-se dizer que: todos os setores econômicos aumentarão suas emissões no período de 2006 a 2015, a concentração das emissões em poucos setores permanece, o setor de transporte é em 2005 o maior emissor e ainda o será em 2015. A proposta de cenários indicou que o setor de transportes é, dentre todos os setores, o mais sensível a alterações na taxa de oferta de trabalho e de uso de fontes renováveis e não renováveis. / Environmental issues, particularly emissions of carbon dioxide play an important role in the research agenda of the field of economics. The problem of the increasing rate of global emissions of carbon dioxide is that culminates in a higher concentration of this gas in the atmosphere and this in turn causes an increase in global average temperature. The increase in temperature of the planet generates a series of imbalances, including: changes in rainfall, desertification and melting in some regions, impacts on agricultural production and human health. The difficulty of finding a solution to global warming occurs at the same pace of the difficulty of finding ways to sustain economic growth without increasing fuel consumption, especially fossil fuels. Thus, is necessary to think about environmental issues along with economic growth. Future prospects for Brazil indicate a high rate of growth in emissions, compared to the rate of countries in the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development). To estimate the direct emissions of CO2 this research uses a model that integrates an input-output and macroeconomic models. By using an integrated model the shocks induced in the input-output model no longer random (ad-hoc) and become macrobased giving consistency to the model. The data used to build the model are: input-output matrices from 1990 to 2005, direct emissions of CO2 industry, 2005 forecast growth rate of the Brazilian population and consumption of renewable and non renewable resources. The results of this research in general indicate that: all economic sectors will increase their emissions between 2006 and 2015; the concentration of emissions in a few sectors will continue; and in terms of emission the transportation sector in 2005 is the largest and still be in 2015. The proposed scenarios indicated that the transport sector is the most susceptible to changes in the labor supply and use of renewable and non renewable energies.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第21092号 / 工博第4456号 / 新制||工||1692(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院工学研究科都市社会工学専攻 / (主査)教授 Cruz Ana Maria , 教授 小林 潔司, 准教授 横松 宗太 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DGAM

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This dissertation comprises two essays. The first essay explores how the size of government, as measured by the level of spending, affects growth. Theoretical models suggest a nonlinear relationship; however, testing this hypothesis empirically in cross-country studies is complicated by the endogeneity of government spending and the accurate identification of turning points. This paper examines the nonlinear hypothesis by incorporating threshold analysis in a cross-country growth regression. Using a broad panel of countries over the period 1971-2005, the results show evidence in favor of a nonlinear effect, but not of the form predicted by theory. When total government spending is low, there is no statistically significant effect on economic growth. However, after passing a certain threshold government spending exhibits a negative effect on growth. The second essay develops a dynamic macroeconomic model to explore how variations in the composition and financing of government expenditures affect economic growth in the long-run. The model is used to analyze how public investment spending funded by taxes or borrowing affects long-term output growth. The model is calibrated to reflect economic conditions in the seven largest Latin American economies during the period 1990 to 2008. We find that, where tax rates are not already high, funding public investment by raising taxes may increase long-run growth. If existing tax rates are high, then public investment is only growth-enhancing if funded by restructuring the composition of public spending. Interestingly, using debt to finance new public investment compromises growth, regardless of the initial fiscal condition.

Macroeconomic stability is one of the most important national objectives in any country. However, economies are often subjected to a number of shocks (internal and external), which can be destabilising, produce volatility and make it difficult to achieve and maintain economic stability. Consequently, various policies are used to help deal with the various shocks that may affect the economy. Of all the available policies, monetary policy appears to have been ever more at the centre of macroeconomic policymaking. Meanwhile, for monetary policy to be effective, there is a need for a better understanding of the transmission mechanism, i.e., the process through which monetary policy decisions are transmitted into changes in real output and inflation. Whereas extensive research on the transmission mechanism has been conducted in developed countries, such work in developing countries, especially in Africa is lacking. This could be due to the fact that it was not long time ago, around the 1990s that countries in Africa started adopting the more modem central bank operations in a market-based economic and financial system characterised by indirect monetary policy. Such operations require an understanding of the transmission mechanism. Lack of empirical analysis of the monetary transmission mechanism in Botswana and developing countries of Africa in general, is the main motivating factor behind this thesis. The main objective of this thesis is, therefore, to estimate the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Botswana. Three different, but complementary techniques (the Narrative Approach, Vector Autoregression (VAR) analysis and the Structural Approach involving the estimation of a small structural model for Botswana economy) are used. Results from these methods tell a consistent story and indicate that monetary policy in Botswana affects real output and inflation through the interest rate channel, while the exchange rate channel is not operational. The credit channel is also active but not strong. The structural approach also indicates that devaluation is contractionary in Botswana, but more research is necessary before firmer conclusions could be made.