Includes bibliographical references (p. 147-159).

In distribution networks, the traditional way to eliminate network stresses caused by increasing generation and demand is to reinforce the primary network assets. A cheaper alternative is active network management (ANM) which refers to real-time network control to resolve power flow, voltage, fault current and security issues. However, there are two limitations in ANM. First, previous ANM strategies investigated generation side and demand side management separately. The generation side management evaluates the value from ANM in terms of economic generation curtailment. It does not consider the potential benefits from integrating demand side response such as economically shifting flexible load over time. Second, enhancing generation side management with load shifting requires the prediction of network stress whose accuracy will decrease as the lead time increases. The uncertain prediction implies the potential failure of reaching expected operational benefits. However, there is very limited investigation into the trade-offs between operational benefit and its potential risk. In order to tackle the challenges, there are two aspects of research work in this thesis. 1) Enhanced ANM. It proposes the use of electric vehicles (EVs) as responsive demand to complement generation curtailment strategies in relieving network stress. This is achieved by shifting flexible EV charging demand over time to absorb excessive wind generation when they cannot be exported to the supply network. 2) Uncertainty management. It adopts Sharpe Ratio and Risk Adjust Return On Capital concepts from financial risk management to help the enhanced ANM make operational decisions when both operational benefit and its associated risk are considered. Copula theory is applied to further integrate correlations of forecasting errors between nodal power injections (caused by wind and load forecasting) into uncertainty management. The enhanced ANM can further improve network efficiency of the existing distribution networks to accommodate increasing renewable generation. The cost-benefit assessment informs distribution network operators of the trade-off between investment in ANM strategy and in the primary network assets, thus helping them to make cost-effective investment decisions. The uncertainty management allows the impact of risks that arise from network stress prediction on the expected operational benefits to be properly assessed, thus extending the traditional deterministic cost-benefit assessment to cost-benefit-risk assessment. Moreover, it is scalable to other systems in any size with low computational burden, which is the major contribution of this thesis.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Washington, 2007. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references (p. 124-130).

This research assessed the concept of future-proofing (FP) as a proactive initiative for enterprise asset management is an urgent need against uncertainty, particularly in health care due to unforeseeable demographic shifts and rapid advances in medical technology. Building information modelling (BIM) is a data-driven initiative but a rigorous analysis will indicate that a synergy exists. A multiphase design methodology was adopted to cover as much breadth and depth around the synergies that exist between future-proofing and BIM both in terms of delivery (supply chain) and in an enterprise context (organisational structures). In the first phase, an exploratory survey was conducted. The exploratory data were gathered to include responses of industry experts. The findings provide valuable insights regarding the integration of flexibility and design standardisation and whether this integration can improve change-readiness in designing future-proof healthcare facilities. Then, a first round of primary and secondary case study data were gathered from a major public asset owner organisation. The findings focused on the governance of BIM and FP in an enterprise context. As such three agendas emerged, namely government, strategic management and, due to the opportunities that BIM brings, information management. Then, a second round of primary qualitative data were collected and a series of interviews were conducted. The interviews targeted the opinion of leading industry experts across all phases of a project. At this phase the aim was to develop a classification ontology of the interactions between FP and BIM during project delivery. Finally, the findings were triangulated. As such, a reference model was developed, concentrating on the functional and organisational aspects of the core business of a service organisation. Finally, the three types of findings were connected to give a deployment plan for future-proofing asset management taking into account adoption of innovation which service providers can use to manage their assets across an enterprise.

With the latest reauthorization of the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act (MSA) and the precarious state of many of the nation's fisheries, it has become essential to incorporate uncertainty in the process of setting annual catch limits (ACLs) and annual catch targets (ACTs). The accuracy with which we predict landings can be thought of as management uncertainty, and it can be estimated by comparing the predicted landings intended by a regulation to the fisheries\' actual landings estimates. The National Standard 1 Guidelines for the MSA state that management regulations should take into account management uncertainty when establishing ACLs or ACTs, prescribing more precaution when management uncertainty is high. This study compared pre-season landings predictions of managed fish species in the South Atlantic to post-season estimates and investigated the existence of management uncertainty, and evaluated its magnitude and direction. Results indicate that the magnitude of management uncertainty for some stocks in the region may be significant. It appears that recreational fisheries have significantly greater management uncertainty than commercial fisheries, and that commercial fisheries are often producing landings smaller than intended or predicted. No relationship was found between regulatory mechanism or the magnitude of a fishery and management uncertainty. The study also revealed that documentation of the methodology used to determine preseason catch estimates is often not sufficient to repeat estimation procedures. The results of this study will have immediate and direct utility in the setting of future management regulations, ACLs, and ACTs in the South Atlantic region, and perhaps beyond. / Master of Science

This research is conducted to formulate a framework for project risk management by evaluating the current understanding and practices. It examines the risk management processes provided by the various standards, frameworks and guidelines available globally. The research argues that the existence of varying risk management standards, frameworks and guidelines is not an assurance that organisations will adopt their principles and processes. Furthermore, these documents do not provide sufficient information concerning the understanding of the concept of risk and uncertainty and their management. To accomplish this goal, it became necessary for the research to reach an understanding about the concepts and fundamental issues of risk and uncertainty management. This research also sought to know how organisations in different industries manage risks and uncertainties for their projects. This research was confined to the study of the understanding and practices of PRM by established or influential organisations in aerospace and aviation, oil, gas and petrochemical, power, telecommunication as well as construction industries with matching criteria. Semi-structured interviews were conducted using an ‘aide-memoire’ with managers involved in the management of project risks to document the current practices of risk management. Thematic analyses were used to compress and summarise the large amount of data into internally consistent understandings of risk and uncertainty. Based on the results, the research proposes a structure that explains the current understanding of the concepts of risk and uncertainty as well as an outline process framework for conducting risk management for industry use. Practically, risk and uncertainty are found to be interrelated whereby and they happen as an outcome of each other’s occurrence. The proposed framework consists of six major steps which incorporated the purposes and activities within, providing a better understanding of how risk can be managed. This research contributes theoretically, methodologically and practically to project risk management body of knowledge.

Das kundenzentrierte Revenue Management als Verbindung der beiden Forschungsdomänen der Kapazitätssteuerung und des Kundenbeziehungsmanagements kann dazu beitragen, wertvolle Kunden auch vor dem Hintergrund begrenzter Kapazitätsressourcen an den Anbieter (wie Airlines, Hotels oder Fertigungsunternehmen) zu binden. Da hierbei gewisse Unsicherheiten auftreten, die in der Folge die Güte der Steuerungsentscheidungen beeinflussen und damit auch Erlösrelevanz besitzen, und diese bisher nur unzureichend beleuchtet wurden, ist eine umfassende Unsicherheitsanalyse vorangetrieben worden. Nach Darlegung des aufgrund der Heterogenität nötigen Begriffsverständnisses zur Unsicherheit sind die unsicheren Situationen im Anwendungskontext mit Hilfe eines konzeptionellen Bezugsrahmens einer detaillierten Charakterisierung und Bewertung unterzogen worden. Unterstützt durch die Erkenntnisse einer systematischen Literaturanalyse wurden dafür elf Problemfelder (mit insgesamt 36 Teilaspekten) herausgearbeitet. Die vorliegende Systematisierung kann Revenue Manager dabei unterstützen, das eigene Unternehmen in das Spannungsgefüge einzuordnen, anhand der anbieterspezifischen Merkmalsausprägungen der Dimensionen und Umfeldfaktoren einen Überblick über die vorherrschende Unsicherheitsproblematik zu gewinnen und zudem Rückschlüsse über den vorliegenden Grad des Unsicherheitsausmaßes vornehmen zu können.:1 Einführung 1.1 Motivation und Problemstellung 1.2 Forschungsdesign 2 Grundlagen kundenzentrierten Revenue Managements 3 Grundlagen der Unsicherheitsproblematik 3.1 Erste Annäherung zur Unsicherheitsproblematik 3.2 Beweggründe zur Unsicherheitsauseinandersetzung 3.3 Abgrenzung des Unsicherheitsbegriffs 3.4 Typologie der Unsicherheit 3.5 Arbeitsdefinition der Unsicherheit 3.6 Generelle Positionierungen 4 Konzeptioneller Bezugsrahmen zur Systematisierung 4.1 Forschungsinstrument 4.2 Literaturanalyse 4.2.1 Planung 4.2.2 Literatursuche 4.2.3 Beitragsanalyse 4.2.4 Synthese und Präsentation 4.3 Dimensionen 4.3.1 Aufgabenbezug 4.3.2 Problemart 4.3.3 Informationsbedarf 4.3.4 Informationsoperation 4.3.5 Unsicherheitsursachen 4.4 Detaillierung des Bezugsrahmens 5 Erfolgsgrößenbezogene Unsicherheiten 5.1 Zielgrößen zur Kundenbewertung 5.1.1 Sachdimension 5.1.2 Zeitdimension 5.1.3 Objektdimension 5.1.4 Kundensegmentbildung 5.2 Präferenzrelationen 5.2.1 Höhenpräferenz 5.2.2 Risikopräferenz 6 Revenue-Management-systembezogene Unsicherheiten 6.1 Kapazitätscharakteristik 6.1.1 Umfang der Kapazität 6.1.2 Flexibilität der Kapazitätsnutzung 6.2 Leistungscharakteristik 6.2.1 Reservierbarkeit des Angebots 6.2.2 Repetivität des Angebotszyklus 6.2.3 Erlöse der Angebote 6.2.4 Angebotsbeschreibung 6.3 Datenbasis 6.3.1 Selektion der Informationen 6.3.2 Anreicherung / Data-Matching 6.3.3 Umgang mit falschen und fehlenden Informationen 6.3.4 Diskretisierung 6.3.5 Aktualisierung der Informationen 6.4 Optimierung 6.4.1 Komplexität der Optimierung 6.4.2 Entwicklungsprozess von Optimierungsmodellen 6.5 Kundenklassifikation 7 Revenue-Management-umfeldbezogene Unsicherheiten 7.1 Modellierung des Kundenverhaltens 7.1.1 Ankunft der Anfragen 7.1.2 Abhängigkeit der Nachfrage 7.1.3 Gruppenbuchungen 7.1.4 Strategisches Kundenverhalten 7.2 Interaktionsprozess und Informationszugang 7.2.1 Entscheidungszeitpunkt 7.2.2 Verbindlichkeit 7.2.3 Kundenidentifikation und Kundenhistorie 7.3 Nachfrageprognose 7.3.1 Prognosegrundlage 7.3.2 Nachfrageschwankungen 7.3.3 Art der Prognosedurchführung 7.3.4 Prognosehorizont 7.4 Wirkung der Kapazitätssteuerungsmaßnahmen des Anbieters 7.4.1 Loyalitätswirkung der Steuerungsentscheidung 7.4.2 Reaktivität des Wettbewerbs 7.4.3 Nichtinanspruchnahme der Leistung durch Kunden 7.4.4 Folgen der Leistungsverwehrung (insbesondere im Rahmen der Überbuchung) 7.4.5 Katalysatorwirkung von Umfeldfaktoren 8 Aktualisierung Bezugsrahmen 9 Zusammenfassung, Diskussion und Ausblick Literaturverzeichnis Anhang

Prior research indicates that management forecast strategies affect investors' perceptions of management, which, in turn, influence investors' judgments about the firm. The current study hypothesizes and demonstrates that decisions about the completeness and form of management's forecast disclosure affect venture capitalists' (VCs) investment screening judgments. In an experiment, 53 experienced VCs indicate whether they would recommend conducting due diligence on a new venture. I manipulate the completeness (inclusion vs. omission of quantitative data about the components of earnings) and form (point vs. range forecast values) of management's financial forecasts in a 2 X 2 between-subjects design. When management is more (less) complete in its forecast disclosure, participants make more (less) favorable investment screening judgments. Additionally, when managers provide less complete disclosures, the use of point rather than range forecasts leads to particularly unfavorable screening judgments, whereas when managers provide more complete disclosures, the use of point rather than range forecasts leads to particularly favorable screening judgments. Taken together, these results indicate that the completeness of forecast disclosure increases the favorability of screening judgments and decisions about the form of financial forecasts can offset some of the adverse consequences of less complete disclosure. / Ph. D.

Der systematische Umgang mit Unsicherheiten, die in Form von Wissens- und Definitionslücken vorliegen, stellt eine zentrale Aktivität der Produktentwicklung dar. Im Zuge der Zielsystementwicklung liegen Unsicherheiten insbesondere in Form von aus Kunden- und Anwendersicht nichtzutreffender und fehlender oder unvollständiger Ziele und Anforderungen vor. Um bei der Konkretisierung des initialen Zielsystems dahingehend zu unterstützen, wurde eine Methode abgeleitet, welche die systematische Integration von Kunden und Anwendern in die Erhebung von Zielsystemelementen adressiert. Dabei formulieren Kunden und Anwender gemeinsam mit Produktentwicklern Ziele für das zu entwickelnde Produkt. Um dies zu unterstützen, werden die Ziele in Form von Satzschablonen formuliert, um die Vollständigkeit der Ziele zu gewährleisten. Weiter kann durch den Aufbau der Satzschablone sichergestellt werden, dass die Begründung in Form des Kunden- oder Anwendernutzens dokumentiert ist. Zusätzlich wurde ein Portfolio abgeleitet, welches die Ziele entsprechend der Zielgruppe und des relevanten Use-Cases strukturiert und damit fehlende Ziele darlegt. Im Rahmen einer Evaluation konnte gezeigt werden, dass durch die Anwendung der Methode in einem Entwicklungsprojekt von Hekatron Brandschutz die Vollständigkeit des Zielsystems gesteigert und die vorliegende Unsicherheit reduziert werden konnte.

This work focuses on the need for new knowledge to allow hierarchical multi-project management to be conducted in the construction industry, which is characterised by high uncertainty, fragmentation, complex decisions, dynamic changes and long-distance communication. A dynamic integrated project management approach is required at strategic, tactical and operational levels in order to achieve adaptability. The work sees the multi-project planning and control problem in the context of supply chain management at main contractor companies. A portfolio manager must select and prioritise the projects, bid and negotiate with a wide range of clients, while project managers are dealing with subcontractors, suppliers, etc whose relationships and collaborations are critical to the optimisation of schedules in which time, cost and safety (etc) criteria must be achieved. Literature review and case studies were used to investigate existing approaches to hierarchical multi-project management, to identify the relationships and interactions between the parties concerned, and to investigate the possibilities for integration. A system framework was developed using a multi-agent-system architecture and utilising procedures adapted from literature to deal with short, medium and long-term planning. The framework is based on in-depth case study and integrates time-cost trade-off for project optimisation with multi-attribute utility theory to facilitate project scheduling, subcontractor selection and bid negotiation at the single project level. In addition, at the enterprise level, key performance indicator rule models are devised to align enterprise supply chain configuration (strategic decision) with bid selection and bid preparation/negotiation (tactical decision) and project supply chain selection (operational decision). Across the hierarchical framework the required quantitative and qualitative methods are integrated for project scheduling, risk assessment and subcontractor evaluation. Thus, experience sharing and knowledge management facilitate project planning across the scattered construction sites. The mathematical aspects were verified using real data from in-depth case study and a test case. The correctness, usefulness and applicability of the framework for users was assessed by creating a prototype Multi Agent System-Decision Support System (MAS-DSS) which was evaluated empirically with four case studies in national, international, large and small companies. The positive feedback from these cases indicates strong acceptance of the framework by experienced practitioners. It provides an original contribution to the literature on planning and supply chain management by integrating a practical solution for the dynamic and uncertain complex multi-project environment of the construction industry.